For 2017, instead of previewing conferences division-by-division, I decided to preview the 64 Power Five teams individually, so I ranked them and counted down from the bottom.

I created a ranking system based heavily off of Bill Connelly’s S&P+ rankings: half of the ranking comes from the S&P rankings from the past five seasons among Power Five teams (1/3 of that number is 2016’s ranking; 1/3 is the average from 2014-2016, 1/3 is the average from 2012-2016); half comes from two component parts of his 2017 S&P+ projections, weighed evenly – recruiting impact and returning production – and ranked 1 through 64. There is no subjectivity involved in these rankings and they skew towards emphasizing where the teams were according the 2016 S&P+. I think it serves as a decent way to sequence these previews.

Previously: #64 Purdue, #63 Rutgers, #62 Kansas, #61 Illinois, #60 Boston College, #59 Virginia, #58 Vanderbilt, #57 Syracuse. #56 Maryland, #55 Arizona, #54 Wake Forest, #53 Duke, #52 Iowa State, #51 Texas Tech, #50 Missouri, #49 Oregon State. #48 Arizona State, #47 Cal, #46 Indiana, #45 Kentucky, #44 West Virginia, #43 South Carolina, #42 Washington State, #41 Northwestern. #40 Minnesota, #39 Iowa, #38 Colorado, #37 Kansas State, #36 Utah, #35 Georgia Tech, #34 Nebraska, #33 Michigan State. #32 North Carolina, #31 NC State, #30 UCLA, #29 Mississippi State, #28 Oregon, #27 Arkansas, #26 Pittsburgh, #25 Baylor. #24 Oklahoma State, #23 Virginia Tech, #22 Georgia, #21 TCU, #20 Texas, #19 Tennessee.

(I didn’t include Notre Dame)

18.OLE MISS

#5 SEC West, #6 SEC

5-7 (2-6) in 2016

If you look at them in a particular way, Ole Miss might be the most intriguing team in the country. Over the summer, Hugh Freeze, the coach who’d built the program into a legitimate contender in the nation’s toughest division, resigned – even though the program was (and is) under NCAA investigation for alleged recruiting violations, Freeze was given the resign-or-be-fired ultimatum due to a pattern of calls to escort services that were found when his phone records were revealed as part of a lawsuit brought against the program by former coach Houston Nutt. Freeze’s sanctimoniousness was a cover for the probably pretty egregious recruiting practices that delivered unprecedented talent to Oxford; most predicted that he’d eventually have to leave Ole Miss, but the exact circumstances were a surprise.

In 2014 and 2015, Freeze’s Rebels upset playoff-bound Alabama teams (for the only two regular season losses the Tide had during those seasons) and made it to New Year’s Six Bowls themselves, but the program began to slip in 2016 – and then a rash of injuries caused the wheels to fall off. In two of the first three games of the season, Ole Miss gave Florida State and Alabama some competitive games before eventually succumbing to defeat; they crushed Georgia a week after the loss to Bama. Then they lost five of their last seven games, with one of the wins coming against a Sun Belt team, Georgia State. A five-touchdown loss to Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl wound up being Freeze’s final game.

His up-tempo spread offenses produced plenty of big plays, and even though the Rebels have a ton of turnover at the skill positions, there’s enough talent that they could still have one of the best offenses in the SEC. QB Shea Patterson lost his redshirt last season when Chad Kelly went down with an injury; the former five-star was an impressive if unrefined dual-threat weapon and played well in a road win over Texas A&M. Fellow blue-chippers are expected to step into bigger roles at RB, WR, and TE, as Ole Miss lost their top rusher and three of their top four targets in the passing game from 2016. The OL had a ridiculous amount of turnover throughout last season, but four starters return and the only new starter is LT Greg Little, one of the top recruits from the 2016 class. The Rebels also have one of the best specialist tandems in the country with K Gary Wunderlich and P Will Gleeson.

After the loss of several stars following the 2015 season, the “Land Sharks” defense fell off a cliff: in 2014, they gave up just 16.0 points per game; in 2015, it was 22.6; in 2016, they fell all the way to 34.0. Freeze hired a new coordinator before he was fired, as the Rebels have up at least 38 points in half their games. Their top tackler from last season, LB DeMarquis Gates, is back, as is excellent pass-rusher Marquis Haynes, but the talent level has dipped quite a bit over the last few seasons. Their new DC, Wesley McGriff, may move away from the aggressive 4-2-5 scheme that had become the program’s signature look on that side of the ball under Freeze.

Interim HC Matt Luke will have his work cut out for him. The program just lost a coach that had a winning record in SEC play. They self-imposed a bowl ban. There’s no guarantee that the Rebels’ season won’t be dead on arrival, with all the tumult surrounding the program. Patterson has star potential and there hasn’t been an exodus of transfers yet – Ole Miss could overachieve and pull an upset that recalibrates the playoff race. Their non-conference slate is very weak, but they face Alabama and Auburn each on the road in their first two SCE games. If those get ugly, the rest of the season could be a disaster. The range of potential outcomes is what makes Ole Miss so interesting: they have the talent to win games; they also could implode spectacularly.

17. TEXAS A&M

#4 SEC West, #5 SEC

8-5 (4-4) in 2016

Kevin Sumlin has coached A&M for a half decade, and while the Aggies have been at least decent throughout his tenure, the feeling that he peaked in his first season is inescapable. That was the year Johnny Manziel won the Heisman as a first-year starter; A&M lost just two games that season – close defeats to Florida and LSU – upset eventual national champion Alabama in Tuscaloosa, and obliterated a good Oklahoma squad in the Cotton Bowl. Since that 11-2 debut, Sumlin has gone 9-4 and then 8-5 three straight times. They’ve gone 15-17 in the SEC over those four seasons.

As mostly a consequence of their schedule structures, A&M has raced out to fast starts, climbing up the rankings (they’ve reached the Top Ten in each season of Sumlin’s tenure), only to collapse down the stretch. In 2014, the Aggies lost five of their last six SEC games; in 2015 it was four of the last six; in 2016, they lost their last four, including as decided favorites over Mississippi State and Ole Miss. They started last season unranked, and upset a very overrated UCLA team at home in OT to open the season; a crazy home victory over Tennessee in 2OT led to a matchup of undefeated teams the next week – and Alabama won easily over A&M. A bowl loss in Houston to Kansas State capped the disappointing finish.

Sumlin, perhaps more than any coach, is subjected to the unique dynamics that affect everybody in the SEC West outside of Saban: he’s very highly paid, has recruited well, has been moderately successful, and despite winning at least eight games in each season, fans are growing restless. The late season slides have grown to define the program under Sumlin, and his job security is perceived as tenuous. “Pretty good, but not elite” has started to read as “relative mediocrity” in the highly competitive division.

While his offenses haven’t been as good as they were with Johnny Football at the helm, Sumlin’s had some quality groups at A&M. There will be uncertainty this season though: the QB position is completely up for grabs with the departure of Oklahoma grad transfer rental Trevor Knight – any of Jake Hubenak (a senior former walk-on who backed up Knight) or freshmen Nick Starkel or Kellen Mond could win the job. They’ll have WR Christian Kirk, who’s one of the best return men in the country, and no other WR who caught more than a handful of passes a year ago. Sophomore RB Trayveon Williams will likely be the focal point of the offense; he had plenty of explosive plays out of the backfield last season and ran for 1,057 yards. Sumlin’s had some elite linemen at A&M, but will be breaking in a new left side of the line and doesn’t have that type of top talent in 2017.

Sumlin lured away John Chavis from Les Miles’s staff at LSU and that move has worked out perfectly for both parties: Chavis instantly improved the Aggie defenses and has blue-chip talent to work with – and he bailed from that sinking ship in Baton Rouge. He’ll be replacing top overall draft pick DE Myles Garrett (and a few other contributors, including the top two tacklers in 2016), but there are still some excellent players at each level of the defense: DT Zaycoven Henderson, LB Otaro Alaka, and box safety Armani Watts. They’ll have to find new pass rushers – JUCO DE Michael Clemons will have plenty of opportunity – and it should be solid defense once again

On the whole, 2017 looks to be more of the same for A&M. They’ll make a bowl and should get to at least seven or eight wins, but the schedule ramps up starting with an October game against Alabama and a trip to the Swamp the following week. There are enough questions on offense to put A&M squarely in the middle of the SEC West yet again: they’ll probably be able to beat the likes of Arkansas, South Carolina, and the Mississippi schools, but the ceiling is rather low.

[13-16 after the JUMP]

16. MIAMI

#1 ACC Coastal, #4 ACC

9-4 (5-3) in 2016

One of the more prestigious programs in the country, Miami has struggled since joining the ACC – the conference decided to place them in the opposite division from Florida State, and the Hurricanes haven’t ever appeared in the conference title game in more than a decade. They haven’t finished with more than nine wins, and they’ve only eclipsed five conference wins once. From 2000 to 2003, they went a combined 46-4, won one national title, and barely lost in the BCS Title Game in what would have been a repeat championship. The fall from there started with the latter half of Larry Coker’s tenure, but also included the Randy Shannon and Al Golden eras.

After the 2015 season, Georgia unexpectedly fired longtime head coach Mark Richt, and Miami moved swiftly to replace Golden with a Miami alum who’d been plenty successful in Athens. Richt is a great coach and should have the Hurricanes playing at a higher level than their recent history. He went 9-4 in 2016 – a season that broke neatly into thirds: the Canes started 4-0; they lost to Florida State in a heartbreaker (missing an extra point that would have likely sent the game to OT) and dropped three games in a row after that; they rebounded from that losing streak to win five straight, including a definitive bowl victory over 10-win West Virginia.

Had QB Brad Kaaya chosen to stay in Coral Gables, Miami would probably be thought of as a darkhorse playoff contender entering the 2017 season. Kaaya leapt to the NFL and Richt will have to find a new QB – junior Malik Rosier won the job in camp over two freshmen. Miami had three main targets in the passing game last season and WR Stacy Coley and TE David Njoku are gone; sophomore Ahmmon Richards was one of the best receivers in the ACC as a freshman – he’ll be a star in time with good enough QB play. Miami’s run offense was abysmal in the year before Richt’s arrival and it improved – Mark Walton is back after rushing for 1,117 yards and 14 touchdowns a year ago. With a veteran offensive line, there’s potential for this to be a great offense if Rosier is good enough.

Manny Diaz – who had success as DC at Mississippi State and did poorly at Texas – turned around Miami’s defense in his first year: they went from 28.2 points allowed per game to 18.5 despite having just four returning starters from the previous year. He’ll have a more experienced unit this season, boasting a very talented and aggressive front seven. There was a lot of turnover in the secondary, so the pass defense could be suspect, but the Canes were great against the run last season and will be even better in 2017. All the starting LBs (led by Shaq Quarterman) are sophomores who shined as freshmen – that position group could be one of the best in the country in time. The DL is deep and experienced and should be closer to Miami’s usual standard compared to where they’ve been in the past decade. CB Jhavonte Dean is a highly-touted JUCO transfer who will be relied upon.

The Coastal is wide open and Miami has as good of a shot as anyone else. Their annual matchup against Florida State leaves them at a disadvantage compared to others in their division, and that game comes in September on the road against a preseason Top 5 team. Outside of the questions at QB, everything else shapes up nicely for the Canes: their defense should be the best in the division, the OL is at least good and possibly great, and there are some playmakers at the skill positions. Richt’s tenure is off to a great start.

15. WISCONSIN

#1 Big Ten West, #4 Big Ten

11-3 (7-2) in 2016

In 2016, Wisconsin was one of the biggest surprises in the country. Despite what looked to be an extremely difficult schedule, the Badgers went 10-2 in the regular season and almost won the Big Ten. Early wins over LSU and especially Michigan State looked less impressive in hindsight than they did at the time, but those two schools were preseason Top 15 teams; Wisconsin’s other two games against marquee opponents – Michigan and Ohio State – were back-to-back losses by a touchdown each. They escaped with a win over Nebraska at home and won the Big Ten West – their defense finally cracked in the Big Ten Championship Game as Penn State’s vertical passing game won them a 38-31 shootout. Wisconsin’s win over an undefeated Western Michigan squad in the Cotton Bowl got them to 11 wins on the season.

Paul Chryst took over as the head coach after Gary Andersen’s brief tenure in Madison – Chryst is a Wisconsin alum who was the OC during Bret Bielema’s run of success, and he’s gone 21-6 in his two years as the head coach. Aside from a loss to Alabama in his first game, every defeat has come by one score or less. In 2015, the Badgers lost a hideous game to Iowa – the eventual Big Ten West winners who had an undefeated regular season – but Wisconsin has gone to the Big Ten Championship Game four times in the last six seasons. The program is poised to remain alone atop the hierarchy of the division in the near future.

The reason for Chryst’s early success hasn’t been the offense, but the defense. In 2015, Dave Aranda had the unit playing at a top ten level – and was hired away to coach LSU’s defense after the season with a huge pay raise. 2016’s defense didn’t drop off at all under Justin Wilcox – and then Wilcox was hired as Cal’s head coach. Chryst promoted former star Badger and longtime NFL safety Jim Leonhard to DC; his playing career ended just a few years ago and he has just one season of coaching experience working with the Badger DBs.

Six starters return from the defense and even though LBs Vince Biegel, TJ Watt, and Jack Cichy won’t be around in 2017, a big drop-off would come as a surprise. LB TJ Edwards is back in the middle of the defense, and all three of the DL starters in Wisconsin’s 3-4 scheme are back as well – despite being undersized up front, the Badgers were quite stout against the run a year ago. They were best at defending against the pass (partially because of the dearth of strong passing offenses on their schedule) and preventing big plays – at least before Trace McSorely and company lit them up in Indianapolis. Safety D’Cota Dixon is the biggest playmaker in the secondary.

The defense has questions, but should be given the benefit of the doubt. The offense does as well, and it’s hard to see how the Badgers will improve much in that regard. Their trademark power run game was surprisingly impotent last season, and both halves of their RB platoon – as well as All-American LT Ryan Ramczyk – are gone. QB Alex Hornibrook struggled as a freshman splitting time with the now-departed Bart Houston. Wisconsin does have some weapons in the passing game – particularly TE Troy Fumagalli, one of the best players in the country at his position, and WR Jazz Peavy is solid as well. Hornibrook should improve with experience, but unless the OL does as well, Wisconsin’s identity will be as a defense-first team yet again. Four starters on the line return and the unit has gotten better since hitting a nadir in 2015, but without a proven RB, the run offense will probably be inconsistent at best.

The Badgers are the overwhelming favorites to win the West – the schedule is much easier, as the Badgers avoid Ohio State and Penn State from the East and don’t start the season with a marquee non-conference game against an SEC foe for the first time since 2013. Their first two Big Ten games are against the two teams that may be their top challengers, Northwestern and Nebraska. By the time Michigan heads to town late in the season, the division may be already decided. If Chryst improves the offense enough and Leonard can maintain the defense’s level of success, this could be an 11- or 12-win regular season – and Wisconsin could be a playoff challenger. Of course, they’d need to beat the East champ in Indy to get there.

14. LOUISVILLE

#3 ACC Atlantic, #3 ACC

9-4 (7-1) in 2016

In 2016, sophomore QB Lamar Jackson was the runaway Heisman trophy winner – he’d showed flashes of his immense talent after taking over as the starter midway through the previous season, but his level of dominance last year was unexpected: Jackson threw for 3,543 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions; more impressively, he ran for 1,571 yards and 21 touchdowns despite taking 47 sacks behind a shaky OL. Few college football players have ever had Jackson’s combination of skills – he has incredible arm strength and throws a beautiful deep ball; he can outrun the defense for long touchdowns and hammer away between the tackles. Predictable NFL scouting criticisms have cropped up, but regardless, Jackson will again be one of the best players in the country for his junior campaign.

That’s an excellent place to start for Bobby Petrino, who’s dealing with some turnover as he enters the fourth season of his second stint at Louisville. His fall from grace at Arkansas was the Cardinals’ gain – they’ve adjusted well to the increased level of competition since joining the ACC in Petrino’s first year back. Charlie Strong had built the program up after a few mediocre seasons under Steve Kragthorpe, and Petrino has been able to maintain it well, going 26-13 from 2014 to 2016. Petrino’s had success everywhere he’s been and, while there’s still concern that he’ll furtively try to climb the coaching ladder again, his presence makes the Cardinals competitive in a division dominated by Florida State and Clemson, two powerhouses.

In 2016, a 63-20 beatdown in September over Florida State launched them into the playoff conversation, where they stayed until November. A few weeks after that victory, they traveled to Clemson and, despite a heroic performance from Jackson, the Cardinals lost by a touchdown in a shootout. They destroyed most of the rest of the ACC (though they barely escaped a terrible Virginia team), and ran up a 9-1 record. Louisville lost their last three games: blown out at Houston (Jackson was sacked 11 times), upset by Kentucky at home, and handled easily by LSU in the bowl (Jackson was sacked 8 times in that one). An offense that had put up better-than-video-game numbers and averaged 42.5 points per game over the season put up just 10 points and 9 points in the losses to Houston and LSU, mostly because of the OL.

Outside of Jackson, the offense returns just three starters from last season’s group and could regress as a whole despite his brilliance. The line is still unsettled: three starters are gone, and while both tackles are back, they were basically turnstiles by the end of 2016 (strangely, they did well against FSU’s front and decently against Clemson’s). JUCO transfer Ronald Rudd is expected to start at guard. Jackson was effectively an elite RB in addition to his passing prowess and will be relied on heavily again; RB Brandon Radcliff was a nice complement and he’s gone. QB-turned-WR-turned-RB Reggie Bonafon or highly-touted freshman Colin Wilson will probably win that role. Jackson’s top three targets in the passing game are also gone. He’ll cover for a lot of weaknesses, but a leaky OL could lead to a ton of sacks again.

The defense was solid outside of a few bad performances (conceding 41 points to Kentucky in particular was awful), but they’ll have a new coordinator in 2017. Todd Grantham left for Mississippi State and Petrino wound up turning to Peter Sirmon – a curious hire, given his lack of experience and his poor 2016 Bulldog defense. Sirmon (who’s a great recruiter) will move the Cardinals away from Grantham’s 3-4, and he’ll have a veteran group of DBs to anchor the secondary with all four starters returning, including potential All-American CB Jaire Alexander. Louisville was better against the run than the pass a year ago, and there’s enough talent to mitigate the loss of a few key contributors who played in the box. In 2016, the defense looked fantastic against Florida State, but peaked early; in 2017, they’ll have to adjust to a new coordinator.

That defense will have to get sorted out quickly, as the Cardinals travel to North Carolina (a tough cross-divisional draw) and host Clemson in two of the season’s first three weeks. In October, Louisville travels to NC State (a trendy upstart) and Florida State. Without Lamar Jackson, there would be very little reason to believe that the Cardinals could contend for the Atlantic title, but: they do have Lamar Jackson. As long as he’s healthy, they’ll be in the mix.

13. WASHINGTON

#2 Pac-12 North, #3 Pac-12

12-2 (8-1) in 2016

Chris Petersen built Boise State into a mid-major powerhouse: the Broncos went undefeated twice in his eight seasons in charge, and his 92-12 overall record in Boise is remarkable. His historic upset over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl came in his first season and is one of the most memorable games since the turn of the century. More than anyone, he was responsible for creating the best program in the Group of Five conferences – despite its lack of proximity to a natural recruiting base. There was always the lingering question of when he would leap for a bigger job – after the Broncos went 8-4 in 2013, he decided to leave for Washington.

Petersen stayed in the Pacific Northwest, but the move seemed strange at the time. Washington had been in a lull for over a decade – the Ty Willingham and Steve Sarkisian eras were a stark departure from the level of success the program enjoyed in the 90s. Sarkisian left for the USC job and Washington managed to get a significant upgrade in Petersen. He went just 15-12 in his first two years in Seattle, though the 2015 season was filled with close losses and the computer rankings valued the Huskies far higher than their record.

They weren’t expected to break through so soon, but they did in 2016 – then-sophomore QB Jake Browning was one of the best in the country, there were enough playmakers around him (particularly WR John Ross), and the defense was perhaps the stingiest in the entire Pac-12. They barely got by a terrible Arizona team in the conference opener and turned around to rout a highly-regarded Stanford team the next week. They mostly ran roughshod over the rest of the Pac-12, though an upset loss to USC at home in November temporarily threw their playoff hopes into doubt. With losses elsewhere and a blowout win over Colorado in the Pac-12 Title Game, the Huskies made the playoff – and were handled by Alabama in the semifinal.

Browning is back – he threw for 3,430 yards and 43 touchdowns (to just 9 interceptions) and even though he’ll be without his top target, Ross, Dante Pettis was a dynamite #2 option in 2016 and should be able to step into a bigger role (he’s also a fantastic return man). All-Pac-12 RB Myles Gaskin also returns, and the junior has run for over 1,300 yards in each season he’s been in Seattle thus far. The Huskies will be looking for new guards on the line, but the unit as a whole is returning almost a hundred career starts and should be one of the better OLs in the conference.

The defense was exceptional in 2016 – and there might be some regression due to attrition, especially in the secondary. Safety Budda Baker, as well as CBs Sidney Jones and Kevin King, were all drafted in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft, and the Huskies’ pass defense will undoubtedly take a hit without those players. The defense itself is sort of like a 2-4-5 with enormous linemen Greg Gaines and Vita Vea in the middle – those two, as well as LB Azeem Victor, should keep the run defense strong. Sophomore safety Taylor Rapp is a budding star, but he’s surrounded by inexperience and Washington doesn’t quite recruit at the level where teams reload instead of rebuild.

Because Washington doesn’t face USC out of the South, and because their showdown against Stanford (on the road) comes in November, they should spend much of the season near the top of the rankings. Petersen is one of the best coaches in the country, Browning is an elite QB, and last year’s breakthrough came a year early, if anything. As long as he’s in Seattle, Petersen should have his Washington teams contending for at least division titles – USC is the best team on paper in the Pac-12 and if the Huskies make it to the Pac-12 Championship Game and upset the Trojans, they could make it consecutive playoff appearances.