but my friends call me
Draftageddon 2017: The Long Night Edition
This is Part IV. We are drafting Big Ten players to give you an overview of the guys and dudes around the conference. You come out of it with a four-deep preseason All-Big Ten. We come out of it with very strong opinions on Rutgers linemen.
Previously: Picks 1-10 (Hurst, Speight), Picks 11-20 (Gary, Peters), Picks 21-28 (Cole), and Picks 29-40 (McCray, Mone)
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THAT WHICH HAS ALREADY OCCURRED:
- Ohio State (9 players): DE Nick Bosa (3rd, Seth), QB JT Barrett (6th, Seth), DE Tyquan Lewis (8th, BiSB), CB Denzel Ward (11th, Seth), DT Dre’Mont Jones (13th, Ace), OC Billy Price (17th, BiSB), DE Sam Hubbard (20th, Ace), LB Jerome Baker (21st, Ace), OT Jamarco Jones (28th, Ace)
- Michigan (7 players): DT Maurice Hurst (2nd, Brian), DE Rashan Gary (5th, Ace), QB Wilton Speight (7th, Brian), QB Brandon Peters (an obligatory 16th, BiSB), OT Mason Cole (26th, Brian), LB Mike McCray (36th, Ace), NT Brian Mone (40th, BiSB)
- Wisconsin (5 players): LB Jack Cichy (14th, Seth), TE Troy Fumagalli (15th, Brian), OG Beau Benzschawel (33rd, BiSB), OC Michael Dieter (34th, Brian), LB TJ Edwards (39th, Brian)
- Penn State (4 players): RB Saquon Barkley (1st, BiSB), QB Trace McSorley (4th, Ace), “TE” Mike Gesicki (25th, BiSB), Marcus Allen, S (29th, Ace)
- Indiana (4 players): LB Tegray Scales (9th, BiSB), WR Simmie Cobbs (12th, Ace), WR Nick Westbrook (30th, Seth), CB Rashard Fant (32nd, BiSB)
- Iowa (4 players): RB Akrum Wadley (18th, Brian), G/C Sean Welsh (22nd, Seth), LB Josey Jewell 23rd, Brian), OT Ike Boettger (35th, Seth)
- Minnesota (2 players): DT Stephen Richardson (10th, Brian), WR Rashad Still (38th, Seth)
- Maryland (1 player): DT Kingsley Opara (19th, Seth)
- Northwestern (1 player): S Godwin Igwebuike (24th, BiSB)
- Rutgers (1 player): OT Tariq Cole (27th, Seth)
- Illinois (1 player): WR Malik Turner (31st, Brian)
- Michigan State (1 player): OG Brian Allen (37th, Ace)
We pick up our snake draft with BiSB on the turn:
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BiSB: ROUND 11, PICK 1: Ryan Bates
Bates had a growth year. [photos: Harvey Levine, via Scout]
Off: QB Brandon Peters (UM), RB Saquon Barkley (PSU), TE/WR Mike Gesicki (PSU), G/C Billy Price (OSU); G/T Beau Benzschawel (UW), G/T Ryan Bates (PSU)
Def: NT Bryan Mone (UM); DE Tyquan Lewis (OSU), LB Tegray Scales (IU), CB Rashard Fant (IU), S Godwin Igwebuike (NW)
Penn State started a 6’4” freshman at left tackle last year. Ordinarily, this would be cause to point and laugh at the continued struggles of Penn State to find offensive linemen. In this case, it was because the Ryan Bates was just really good. He was shorter than the ideal left tackle by about 3 inches, but while he was adequate in pass protection, he was an extremely effective run blocker. PFF had him as Penn State’s best offensive lineman in the Rose Bowl, and I agree.
Bates was named a first-team Freshman All American by USA Today, which for an offensive lineman largely means he was (a) a freshman, who (b) did not spontaneously combust. But still, he did not spontaneously combust. He struggled a bit with pure speed rushers (though tended to do an adequate job of forcing them deep enough for McSorley to step up), as well as with blitz identification and assignment, but the latter should improve as he becomes not a freshman.
Let this not be seen as an endorsement of Penn State’s offensive line in general. The Nittany Lions were 120th in the country in Adjusted Line Yards, 119th in Power Success Rate, and 123rd in Standard Down Line Yards Per Carry. These are fancy ways of saying “Saquon Barkley is a goddang wizard.”
[After the JUMP: CORN, CORN CORN CORN CORN CORN CORN hey free football content CORN CORN CORN CORN CORN look a tree CORN CORN CORN]
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Brian: ROUND 11, PICK 2: Anthony Nelson, DE, Iowa
[courtesy University of Iowa Athletics]
Off: QB Wilton Speight (M), RB Akrum Wadley (IA), TE Troy Fumagalli(UW), WR Malik Turner(ILL), OT Mason Cole(M), C Michael Deiter(UW)
Def: NT Stephen Richardson (Minn), DT Mo Hurst(M), DE Anthony Nelson(IA), ILB Josey Jewell(IA), ILB TJ Edwards(UW).
After the rain, the Nelson twins decided to become Iowa defensive ends. Anthony was better than running buddy Matt, and amongst the most productive DEs in the league. By the time the Michigan came came around he was +20 to PFF, with almost all of that pass rush. He had 31 pressures on just 229 pass rush snaps that that point--that is Taco Charlton-level production. The 6 sacks and 8 total TFLs don't show the full story here: dude is a dude.
That was just year two and he has considerable upside yet to explore:
Clearly, Nelson wants to build off that. He put on 10 pounds in the offseason (6-7, 260) and feels quicker. “So far, I’ve got the quickness, so hopefully that continues,” Nelson said. “I’ve been trying to work with that so far this spring.”
Also he is already crazy productive:
it’s time Iowa’s Anthony Nelson got some appreciation. Nelson is second among Big Ten edge talents both in terms of overall grade (83.8) and pass rush grade (83.9). His 37 total pressures is tops in the conference, third among Power-5 players.
Nelson has NFL first round pick production as a pass rusher already and just needs to round out his run defense to be a complete player; chances are he gets there this year and joins the list of great Iowa defensive linemen who were recruited from towns where stoplights are just a rumor and the Macarena has yet to blow everyone's mind.
And yes yes, my next pick is probably going to be Floyd of Rosedale.
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Seth: Before we face the many miles of traffic cones between Iowa City and actual places...
Seth ROUND 11, PICK 3: Manny Rugamba, CB, Iowa
[Patrick Barron]
Off: QB JT Barrett (OSU), WR Nick Westbrook (IU), WR Rashad Still (MN), OG Sean Welsh (IA), LT Tariq Cole (RU), RT Ike Boettger (IA)
Def: DT Kingsley Opara (MD), DE Nick Bosa (OSU), LB Jack Cichy (UW), CB Denzel Ward, CB Manny Rugamba
The pool of plausible cornerbacks just shrank further with the recent injury to Nebraska's Chris Jones (whom I was about to take here). That leaves just three known quantities for the 2-3 guys we all still have to draft. One is Wisconsin's Derrick Tindal, who looked good against underthrown balls to Malachi Dupree before getting torched for the winning scores in the Michigan and OSU games. Another is PSU's micron Grant Haley. The third is the leading returning CB in passer-rating-against:
Quarterbacks will be throwing away from these returning Big Ten cornerbacks in 2017. pic.twitter.com/Jg0tEX4xqx
— Aaron Resnick (@aaronmresnick) July 10, 2017
Michigan fans don't have to be reminded of what happened to a once highly efficient passing offense when it met the true freshman starting in place of an injured Greg Mabin. But just in case, Iowa fans I know have been sending me that clip of the late 4th quarter interception this kid ripped away from Jehu Chesson.
Before that game what we knew of Rugamba was that he was already a pretty good run defender. Both Ferentz and scouting types talk about the 6'0" Rugamba's long arms, receiver-like ball skills, and uncanny instincts. He's also in the mix to replace Desmond King as Iowa's returner. He's probably not going to be a two-time All-American. He's probably going to be pretty good.
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BiSB: Manny Rugamba is unquestionably among the Big Ten's most fun names to say.
Brian: Rugumba sucked, got burned repeatedly over the top by Amara Darboh, and was bailed out by Speight's worst game of the year. Maybe he'll be better as a sophomore but that passer rating against is small sample size and luck.
BiSB: How many targets was that?
Brian: Minimum 20 says the chart and I imagine that Rugumba is near the minimum. Rugumba got a -2.2 for pass coverage against M per PFF. I am deeply offended that Seth used the same rhetorical gambit as I did for Wadley(+5.4).
Ace: His other pick wasn’t exactly Lewis-vs-Wisconsin, either.
Brian: I dunno, undercutting like that is pretty good
Ace: He recovers nicely after some sloppy initial footwork but that’s just a terrible, terrible throw.
BiSB: For Brian’s point about the Michigan game:
Ace: gah!
Brian: argh
BiSB:
Ace: gahhhhhhh
Brian: OK WE'VE MADE THE POINT
BiSB: I'm just pulling clips to link, but DAMMIT SETH NOW I AM SAD
Seth: Y'all could have Not poked this hornets nest.
Ace: YOU POKED IT, SETH
Seth: I just pointed at the tree and said "Oh, that looks dangerous." You guys are the ones who decided to pry it open and go looking for clips.
BiSB: You were the one who put the dead dove in the refrigerator, Seth. Go pick another Rutgers guy so we can clip THOSE highlights. Those were decidedly more fun.
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Ace: ROUND 11, PICK 4: Jazz Peavy, WR, Wisconsin
Peavy could see his already solid numbers rise considerably if Wisconsin gets more consistent quarterback play this year. He’s a proven big-play threat after averaging 14.8 yards per catch last year and cracking 15 yards per carry on 21 rushes, mostly of the jet sweep variety. Peavy was targeted 18 more times than any other Badger and served as their only real deep threat, so his 51% catch rate doesn’t stand out, but if he gets catchable balls he can do a lot with them. As UW’s primary receiver, he’s certainly going to get his fair share of opportunities this year. Peavy can operate from the outside or the slot, so he gives me some flexibility, too.
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The Mathlete: Jazz Peavy comes up dead last in points per target versus team points per target among WRs last year Wisconsin was -13 on Peavy targets vs non-Peavy targets.
Seth: That might be how they used him. More extreme version of R.J. Shelton (or Calvin Bell for the mid-Carr enthusiasts), where they're having him always in jet motion and running picks on crossing routes. The Badgers have other guys running downfield.
The Mathlete: He was actually +12 doing the same comparison on completions, 12th in the conference. Big gap is on the targets that went his way that were not caught.
Seth: Badger receiver stats are weird. They didn't have a QB who could throw it deep. Catches were guys who got open thanks to OPI or Troy Fumagalli being redonkulous.
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Ace: ROUND 12, PICK 1: Damian Prince, OT/OG, Maryland
[Barron]
Off: QB Trace McSorley (PSU), WR Simmie Cobbs (IU), WR Jazz Peavy (UW), OT Jamarco Jones (OSU), OT/OG Damian Prince (MD), G/C Brian Allen (MSU)
Def: DE Rashan Gary (M), DE Sam Hubbard (OSU), DT Dre’Mont Jones (OSU), LB Mike McCray (M), LB Jerome Baker (OSU), S Marcus Allen (PSU)
In a down year for tackles in the conference, I’m willing to take a shot on a former five-star recruit with 19 career starts entering his fourth year. Damian Prince hasn’t lived up to that five-star billing yet or he’d have gone in the first two rounds. He struggled against Michigan’s elite defensive line. He entered that game, however, having only given up one sack and four hurries on the season, and pass protection isn’t supposed to be his strength—he’ll be a right tackle or, more likely, guard at the next level.
And, yes, despite his struggles last year, he’s still flashed enough talent to be considered a legitimate NFL prospect. Matt Miller ranks him as the #2 guard (two spots ahead of Billy Price) and 39th overall for the 2018 draft. There’s reason to believe he could have a breakout year. He cut down to 315, the lightest he’s been in college. Maryland has a new offensive line coach with a background in Joe Moorhead’s offense after moving the previous OL coach to an “off-the-field role.” The physical ability is there. We’ll see if he puts it together.
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Seth: Speaking of guys with a bad PFF score against Michigan, Prince got tagged with a -7.9 (!!!) last year, giving up 6 pressures despite the Terps almost never throwing downfield.
Also we predicted this—we were very close to giving Prince that turquoise circle in last year's Fee Fi Foe Film. The entire offense was designed to never have Prince or true freshman Terrance Davis have to do anything hard.
This is also a good opportunity to remind folks that OG Mike Minter randomly retired this year. Prince's decent run score was mostly being put in an advantageous position: the Terps leaned heavily last year on Minter and graduated Michael Dunn, either running to their side or pulling and trapping with them to give the right side easier blocks.
BiSB: Perhaps Ace has him as a skill position player. Watch as he picks his way through three defenders into open space on Maryland's first offensive play of the game:
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Seth: Round 12, Pick 2: Tanner Farmer, OG, Nebraska
Tanner Farmer is solid along that offensive line in Lincoln. pic.twitter.com/ZNAoO4HlqC
— PFF College Football (@PFF_College) July 22, 2017
Off: QB JT Barrett (OSU), WR Nick Westbrook (IU), WR Rashad Still (MN), OG Sean Welsh (IA), LT Tariq Cole (RU), RT Ike Boettger (IA), OG Tanner Farmer (NE)
Def: DT Kingsley Opara (MD), DE Nick Bosa (OSU), LB Jack Cichy (UW), CB Denzel Ward, CB Manny Rugamba
He's 6'4/305, has a beard, wins Citizenship Team awards, wrestles, majors in Health Science, and is named Farmer, so he'll fit right in with the Iowans on my OL. He's also fresh off a PFF 2nd Team All-B1G sophomore year, his first as a starter. His overall grade was just under 80 (very good) as of 10/26.
That's all based on 2/3rds of a season played with a high ankle sprain, getting carted off the field vs. Northwestern (9/24) and Wisconsin (10/29). The second one meant missed time, so we didn't get to see Farmer versus Minnesota (Richardson), Maryland (Opara), Iowa (Jaleel Johnson) or Ohio State (errybody). Plus Purdue's Jake Replogle didn't travel for the Nebraska game because of a concussion. That leaves just IU, Illinois, Northwestern, Oregon, and some mid-majors to scout where Farmer did well and everyone else on the OL (except LG Jared Foster) didn't. I watched the Oregon game and he fared excellently against T.J. Daniel, a UDFA who signed with the Texas this offseason.
Farmer did come back to make the PFF top five performers in the Music City bowl, giving up just one pressure on 40 snaps vs the thing Brady Hoke is good at. He seems like a good guy.
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Brian: I swear I'm not doing this on purpose.
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Brian: ROUND 12, PICK 3: James Daniels, C, Iowa
I solemnly swear this is a stop reminding us of the Iowa game dick choice for a photo, not a Daniels sucks dick choice for a photo, because he doesn’t suck you suck is my point…you should feel good about this. [Eric Upchurch]
Off: QB Wilton Speight (M), RB Akrum Wadley (IA), TE Troy Fumagalli(UW), WR Malik Turner(ILL), OT Mason Cole(M), G Michael Deiter(UW), C James Daniels (IA).
Def: NT Stephen Richardson (Minn), DT Mo Hurst(M), DE Anthony Nelson(IA), ILB Josey Jewell(IA), ILB TJ Edwards(UW).
Daniels was third team All Big Ten to just about everyone, behind Pat Elflien and Mason Cole—no shame in that, and that was as a true sophomore. He was the only Iowa OL to survive the Michigan game in the green as a run blocker, posting a truly impressive +3.2 against the best DL in the conference. He was Iowa's second best player in that game and their best in the Outback Bowl against another fierce DL in Florida, per PFF.
Mel Kiper has him the second best underclassman C in the nation. He was named a sophomore All-American by Campus Insiders.
He's got a lot of upside left to explore and is already the best remaining C in the league, per Big Ten coaches/SIDs, since Elflien's gone and Cole is a tackle. Meanwhile I can slide Deiter back to the LG spot he's had a season's worth of starts at without losing any efficacy.
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Seth: Dammit. Here I am figuring "Brian gave me epic crap last year for drafting a bunch of centers so Daniels will last another swing."
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BiSB: ROUND 12, PICK 4: Chase Winovich, DE (Michigan)
[Upchurch]
Off: QB Brandon Peters (UM), RB Saquon Barkley (PSU), TE/WR Mike Gesicki (PSU), G/C Billy Price (OSU); G/T Beau Benzschawel (UW), G/T Ryan Bates (PSU)
Def: NT Bryan Mone (UM); DE Tyquan Lewis (OSU), DE Chase Winovich (UM), LB Tegray Scales (IU), CB Rashard Fant (IU), S Godwin Igwebuike (NW)
Among the more simultaneously true and untrue statements about 2017 is that “Michigan is losing their entire defensive line.” If Michigan was replacing Glasgow, Wormley, Godin, and Taco with who-dats (see: the banks of the Red Cedar), it would be more concerning. Michigan is returning a defensive line that would have been among the best in the conference by itself last year. Chase Winovich would have started for a solid majority of Big Ten teams last year. He just happened to share a depth chart with an NFL first draft pick.
Winovich did quite a bit in his limited snaps last year. He registered 5.5 sacks, which is 7th in the conference. He was primarily a speed rusher, and caused some serious damage off the edge. PFF had him with pressures on approximately 10% of his snaps, which is really nice. He was also a +6.5 against the run, which was an unexpected bonus. This was especially impressive given that he came to Michigan as a linebacker in the YMRMFSPA Jake Ryan mold, and was still working through the finer points of defensive line play. Add another year of seasoning from Greg Mattison, a Don Brown scheme, and the ten additional pounds he put on in the offseason, and this could be a monster year for Winovich.
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ROUND 13, PICK 1: Jason Cabinda, ILB (Penn State)
(The OSU stuff starts at 1min)
Off: QB Brandon Peters (UM), RB Saquon Barkley (PSU), TE/WR Mike Gesicki (PSU), G/C Billy Price (OSU); G/T Beau Benzschawel (UW), G/T Ryan Bates (PSU)
Def: NT Bryan Mone (UM); DE Tyquan Lewis (OSU), DE Chase Winovich (UM), LB Tegray Scales (IU), LB Jason Cabinda (PSU) CB Rashard Fant (IU), S Godwin Igwebuike (NW)
Cabinda was one of the most productive linebackers in the Big Ten last year. He has 81 tackles despite missing 5 games with an arm injury. His 9.0 tackles per game was third in the conference behind only Tegray Scales and Josey Jewell. The year before, he lead Penn State with 100 tackles. Cabinda’s absence (along with Brandon Bell’s absence) partially explains how Penn State got torched on the ground by Pitt and Michigan, but surrendered less than 3.0 yards in the 8 games after his return.
As annoying as the “Linebacker U” thing is, Penn State does have an history of cranking out thumping inside linebackers. Cabinda isn’t flashy, and he’s not great in space, but in a phone booth he’s extremely effective. He plays smart and fundamentally sound, and can shed blockers as well as anyone in the conference. He’s also just a stout, physical guy. The Iowa game provides a good summary of what you’re getting with Cabinda, but specifically check out the two plays at 1:13 and 5:47. That’s some linebacker play that would make your grandpappy proud.
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Brian: ROUND 13, PICK 2: Kirk Ferentz, Brian Ferentz, Bret Bielema, Cheese Curds, and Corn
fine fine
Brian: ROUND 13, PICK 2: Joshua Kalu, CB/S, Nebraska
Off: QB Wilton Speight (M), RB Akrum Wadley (IA), TE Troy Fumagalli(UW), WR Malik Turner(ILL), OT Mason Cole(M), G Michael Deiter(UW), C James Daniels (IA).
Def: NT Stephen Richardson (Minn), DT Mo Hurst(M), DE Anthony Nelson(IA), ILB Josey Jewell(IA), ILB TJ Edwards(UW), S Josh Kalu (Neb)
Kalu is a two-year starter who was an excellent player a year ago (80 grade from Pro Football Focus); Nebraska was set to move him from corner to safety this year because he was just as good a run defender as he was a cover guy. He was one of the few guys to come out of the OSU game looking all right.
Jones's injury puts that move in flux; either way he's a flexible, proven plus in the secondary. I don't see many others left out there. Rather a dearth of proven DBs in the league.
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HOW THE THINGS STAND AFTER 50 PICKS:
Mathlete: 50ish picks, do you want a most productive available players?
Seth: Sure.
Mathlete:
- RB: Justin Jackson, LJ Scott-Jackson led all B1G RB's last year with +42 points on his carries versus any other runs from NW
Seth: How do you differentiate guys who get a lot of yards every time they touch the ball versus guys who touched the ball a lot of times? Like nobody doubts LJ Scott, we just doubt how many times he'll risk his NFL career to play the throwaway hand MSU dealt itself.
Mathlete: I calculate points per play for a given player, then calculate the points per play for the team with that players carries excluded. This is per play gap which can be positive or negative. This is then multiplied by the total carries to get a total points impact.
Justin Jackson was .146 points per play better running the ball than the rest of NW. He had 285 non garbage time carries last year for a total impact of +41.7 points
Seth: That seems like...a lot of carries.
BiSB: I think we can agree that LJ Scott playing for Replacement Level Big Ten Team would probably be gone by now
Ace: There’s also so many solid-to-excellent Big Ten backs that Bryan and I can continue this RB staring contest for a while.
BiSB: You mean you and Seth, right? Because I already got the crazy superman guy
Ace: Right, that guy.
Mathlete:
- WR: it's lot of conjecture at this point, but Blacknall and Hamilton from PSU are at the top of my list from last year's performances
- DL: Gelen Robinson, Purdue and Nate Hoff, Indiana are the most productive returners on my list. [ed: we were a couple of picks later when he said this]
- LB: Markus Bailey, Purdue and Jonathan Celestin, Minnesota
- DB: DBs production is harder to measure, but Jonathan Crawford and Marcelino Ball from Indiana top the list of available returning DBs
Seth: What happens if you count Ball as a linebacker?
Mathlete: Indiana had a lot of guys in the secondary making plays last year, A'Shon Riggins would step in as the next DB. LBs tend to be more productive than DBs so Ball would drop down the LB list.
- Ohio State (9 players): DE Nick Bosa (3rd, Seth), QB JT Barrett (6th, Seth), DE Tyquan Lewis (8th, BiSB), CB Denzel Ward (11th, Seth), DT Dre’Mont Jones (13th, Ace), OC Billy Price (17th, BiSB), DE Sam Hubbard (20th, Ace), LB Jerome Baker (21st, Ace), OT Jamarco Jones (28th, Ace)
- Michigan (8 players): DT Maurice Hurst (2nd, Brian), DE Rashan Gary (5th, Ace), QB Wilton Speight (7th, Brian), QB Brandon Peters (an obligatory 16th, BiSB), OT Mason Cole (26th, Brian), LB Mike McCray (36th, Ace), NT Brian Mone (40th, BiSB), DE Chase Winovich (48th, BiSB)
- Iowa (7 players): RB Akrum Wadley (18th, Brian), G/C Sean Welsh (22nd, Seth), LB Josey Jewell 23rd, Brian), OT Ike Boettger (35th, Seth), DE Anthony Nelson (42nd, Brian), CB Manny Rugamba (43rd, Seth), OC James Daniels (47th, Brian)
- Penn State (6 players): RB Saquon Barkley (1st, BiSB), QB Trace McSorley (4th, Ace), “TE” Mike Gesicki (25th, BiSB), Marcus Allen, S (29th, Ace), OT Ryan Bates (41st, BiSB), LB Jason Cabinda (49th, BiSB)
- Wisconsin (6 players): LB Jack Cichy (14th, Seth), TE Troy Fumagalli (15th, Brian), OG Beau Benzschawel (33rd, BiSB), OC Michael Dieter (34th, Brian), LB TJ Edwards (39th, Brian), WR Jazz Peavy (44th, Ace)
- Indiana (4 players): LB Tegray Scales (9th, BiSB), WR Simmie Cobbs (12th, Ace), WR Nick Westbrook (30th, Seth), CB Rashard Fant (32nd, BiSB)
- Minnesota (2 players): DT Stephen Richardson (10th, Brian), WR Rashad Still (38th, Seth)
- Maryland (2 players): DT Kingsley Opara (19th, Seth), OT Damian Prince (45th, Ace)
- Nebraska (2 players): OG Tanner Farmer (46th, Seth).SJoshua Kalu (50th, Brian)
- Northwestern (1 player): S Godwin Igwebuike (24th, BiSB)
- Rutgers (1 player): OT Tariq Cole (27th, Seth)
- Illinois (1 player): WR Malik Turner (31st, Brian)
- Michigan State (1 player): OG Brian Allen (37th, Ace)
(NO BUCKS THIS TIME!!! Nebraska finally on the board. No Purdue)
NEXT TIME ON DRAFTAGEDDON:
