Just kidding!
Draftageddon 2017: It Begins
What is this: It’s pre-season All-Big Ten #content given the ol’ MGo-Really-Do-A-Job treatment. We hold a snake draft of Big Ten players and try to build the best teams. You come out of it with a four-deep preseason All-Big Ten. We come out of it primed to cover the upcoming football season. Side effects include arguing with a vocal minority who think an unscored draft with offensive linemen is a fantasy league, and bloggers who drafted Ramcyzk, Cichy, and Igwebuike in late rounds finding flimsy exuses to remind people of that. #ItsTotallyNotAFantasyDraft
We have rules: if 3 guys have drafted a position you have 2 rounds to follow suit. Teams are a QB, RB, OLx5, WRx2, DEx2, DTx2, LBx2, Sx2, CBx2 K, P, and some flex players. RANDOM.org determines the draft order, which this year is BiSB, Brian, Seth, and Ace. Let’s begin.
BiSB: ROUND 1, PICK 1: SAQUON BARKLEY, RB, Penn State
Running back is one of the deeper position in the Big Ten this year. But I don't think there's another position where the best player is so clear-cut. And while we Michiganders aren't allowed to use the B-word lightly, watching Saquon Barkley run makes even the most reverent among us mutter "Barry Sanders" involuntarily.
This pretty much sums it up on Penn State RB Saquon Barkley. pic.twitter.com/9yZ6v1ELew
— Todd McShay (@McShay13) May 24, 2017
See poor damn #35 in that video? The guy who seems unfamiliar with how football works? That's USC's leading tackler and second-team All-Pac-12 linebacker Cameron Smith. And he never had a chance.
Barkley led the Big Ten in yards from scrimmage. His 5.5 yards per carry were best among players with at least 15 carries per game. His 402 receiving yards were best among all running backs (excluding Curtis Samuel, who was listed as a back but usually lined up as a receiver). His 14.62 yards per reception was 13th best among ALL Big Ten players with 2+ receptions per game, and was the best number put up by a running back in at least a decade.
He has straight-line speed. He has almost unparalleled lateral quickness. He runs behind his pads. He runs excellent routes and can catch the ball out of the backfield. He's very adept at pass protection and blitz pickup. He's Pro Football Focus's best returning Big Ten player. Vegas has him as one of the pre-season Heisman front-runners. He did... this?
Penn State Strong! Barkley 405lbs Power Clean pic.twitter.com/1LnAEYqy73
— Iron Lions (@IronLions1) June 29, 2017
He's just really dang good.
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Seth: Some of that Sanders comp might be because he's dodging his first two tackles immediately after the handoff.
BiSB: Indeed. If you recall this from last year, we had reason to believe two things about Penn State's running game; that Barkley was going to have to do a lot of stuff by himself, and that he probably could.
[After the jump: backups and belly rubs]
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Brian: ROUND 1, PICK 2: MAURICE HURST, DT, Michigan
mmm belly
Intriguing year in the league as there are a lot of guys who should break out to be super productive linemen, but there's only one guy who's already there: Maurice Hurst. Nominally a backup for Michigan a year ago, Hurst was the most explosive DT at Michigan and probably league wide. PFF has always been a fan and UFR has closely tracked with their increasingly boggling numbers:
One of the many productive defensive linemen at Michigan, Hurst may be the best of the bunch after dominating on 760 snaps over the last two seasons. He can win with quickness and technique right off the snap, resulting in seven sacks, 15 QB hits, and 42 hurries on 442 rushes while ranking among the nation’s top run defenders in each of the last two years.
In addition to the run D grades, Hurst has emerged as the premiere interior pass rusher, by PFF's reckoning, in the last few years of college football. With a bunch more snaps headed his way in his senior season he's a lock to be All Big Ten and should be an All-American as Michigan reloads on the defensive line.
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Seth: ROUND 1, PICK 3: NICK BOSA, DE, Ohio State
Since PFF's 1st and 3rd favorite guys are off the board you might ask who's second. It's Nick Bosa, who did this…
He was every bit the terror on passing downs that his brother was before him, as he racked up 38 total pressures on just 196 rushes. Not surprisingly, his pass-rush productivity rating from last season ranks first in the country among returning 4-3 defensive ends, and is second among all edge defenders. His play against the run was also solid, as he posted 16 run stops on 160 run snaps, and did not miss a tackle in any of the final six regular season games.
AS A TRUE FRESHMAN!
With 35-40% fewer snaps Bosa out-PFF'd fellow OSU star DEs Sam Hubbard and Tyquan Lewis, the 8th and 9th players on the above list. Doing that three months out of high school is some kind of witchcraft; doing it after losing his senior year to an ACL tear is downright devilry.*
This unholy Bosa golem is actually larger than the original—Nick played last year at 275 and is expected to be about 280 this season. They already use him inside on passing downs. They called that four-DE package "Rushmen." I called it "Four Next-Bosas of the Apocalypse" and cried shenanigans:
You may have noticed my graphic has a dude with a frikkin _shield_ on the bench. By now I’m as sure as ever that Joey Bosa collected his NFL check and is now back at school pretending to be a long lost cousin or something. “Nick” Bosa has just about the same dimensions, and is the same ludicrously unblockable player that he was when he went by Joey. They didn’t even change his number. Seriously Ohio State, it’s not that you cheat, it’s that you’re so obvious about it. Bosa doesn’t technically start but he’s got the highest PFF score (+23.4) on the team; he’s a “backup” only in the way that Maurice Hurst technically is.
I won't claim someone in Ohio gave up their soul for a "Bigger Bosa with a better debut than Rashan Gary" but it's hard to find any way things would have gone differently if they had, right down to delivering the coup to gras on the career of Kyle Kalis. Add another year of separation from his injury, another year under former star Paterno assistant Larry Johnson Sr., and 100-200 more snaps, and the ceiling for 2017 is ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.
* [And possibly good news for Michigan's linebacker depth]
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Ace: ROUND 1, PICK 4: Trace McSorley, QB, Penn State
Life as Rex Grossman (warning: high volume)
It’s a very tight race between McSorley and JT Barrett for top Big Ten QB. While Barrett is the superior runner by a wide margin, he has limitations as a passer heading into his senior season. McSorley is a viable-enough threat on the ground who can run a shockingly effective version of the Rex Grossman offense, often using his legs to extend plays and get huge gains through the air.
He threw for 8.9 YPA with a 29/8 TD-to-INT ratio as a sophomore first-year starter in a new system. He was by far the best QB in the conference when under pressure and finished in a functional tie for first when throwing from a clean pocket. While he loses a great deep-ball receiver in Chris Godwin, he has plenty of weapons and a coordinator who will utilize them effectively—Mike Gesicki, DaeSean Hamilton, DeAndre Thompkins, Saeed Blacknall, and Saquon Barkley all made their fair share of huge plays, and they’re all back.
If McSorley holds form he’ll be an all-conference lock who’s only slightly overshadowed in his own backfield by Barkley. If he has a second-year breakout, serious postseason hardware is well within his reach, especially in an offense so conducive to putting up big numbers. McSorley showed plenty of room for improvement last year, most notably in his 58% completion rate, a lower-than-ideal figure even in Joe Moorhead’s bomb-it-out offense. An extra year of experience should more than overcome the loss of Godwin; there’s still plenty of skill position talent.
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Ace: ROUND 2, PICK 1: Rashan Gary, DE, Michigan
Off: QB Trace McSorley (PSU)
Def: DE Rashan Gary (M)
Are Tyquan Lewis or Sam Hubbard more proven at the college level? Sure. But #1 overall recruits are almost dead locks to produce as long as they avoid off-field pitfalls. Gary has no such concerns. He gives opponents a lot to be concerned about:
While playing on a loaded D-line, Gary had 27 tackles and five tackles for loss as a true freshman. Expectations are sky high for him to be one of the nation’s biggest breakout players in 2017. Jim Harbaugh certainly stokes those expectations when he tweeted out some off-season workout numbers that spotlighted Gary’s athleticism. On it, the 6’5", 287-pounder was listed as timing a 4.57 in the 40, fastest among not only Michigan D-linemen, but also the linebackers (a 4.63 was the best among those). Gary also vertical jumped 31 inches and broad-jumped 9’6". The other number that was truly stunning at his size was the 6.70 L-drill time. At the 2017 NFL combine, the fastest time for all D-linemen was a 6.85, and you have to go back six years to find a D-lineman that clocked a fastest time than Gary’s 6.70. Sam Acho ran a 6.69 and he did that weighing 25 pounds less. The fastest L-drill time among all Wolverine DBs was a 6.79 and among linebackers was a 6.89.
While the Ohio State quartet will have a relatively even timeshare, Gary should get a significant majority of the snaps over Carlo Kemp, and his production should skyrocket.
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Ace: Someone else can get photoshopped into a rival’s jersey this year.
Seth: I guess that’s me.
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Seth: ROUND 2, PICK 2: JT Barrett, QB Ohio State
Off: QB JT Barrett (OSU)
Def: DE Nick Bosa (OSU)
Lower your shields and surrender your ships. We are Borg. We have existed for hundreds of years, marching inexorably forward at a rate sufficient for first downs, passing only in conditions of peak efficiency as calculated by a quotient of run-pass-optimization. We have scored 100 touchdowns, accumulated 8846 yards, won 26 of 30 games started.
Behind our uncharacteristically bad offensive line last year we had our statistically worst season ever: 6.7 YPA, 24/7 TD/INT ratio, 135.31 QBR passing, and 9 TDs, and a 5.8 yards per carry when all 27(!) sacks are removed (we experienced just 15 sacks combined in 2014 and '15). We therefore did not make PFF's list of top 10 returning players. We were nevertheless named PFF's first team All-Big Ten QB.
Our ultimate goal is achieving perfection; to that end we have finally removed creatively challenged Ed Warriner from our Collective through maximum face-saving machinations, and assimilated the diabolical and technological distinctiveness of former Indiana HC/Oklahoma OC (Jason White, Sam Bradford)/Northwestern OC (Zak Kustok) Kevin Wilson to our own. His tempo-and-go culture will adapt to serve us. Resistance is futile.
(Unless it rains.)
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The Mathlete: Don't know if my input is interesting here or not.
Seth: Yeah that's what you're here for. Adam is taking BiSB's snark role.
The Mathlete: JT Barrett is certainly a strange case. I had him as the Least Valuable Player of the Big 10 last year. I measure QBs and RBs on how many Points Per Play they account for versus all the other plays QBs and RBs account for. Barrett was 0.17 PP worse than other Buckeyes, almost 80 total points worse for the season. For comparison, Perry Hills was next worst at the same PPP gap versus other Terps but given so many less plays, his negative impact was only 45 points
Seth: ...unless you're going to knock my players.
I'm guessing that's an effect of getting sacked 27 times. Right tackle Isaiah Prince was god-awful (a whopping -12.2 in pass protection to PFF _before_ the Michigan and Clemson games) at keeping Barrett's frontside clean, and OG Michael Jordan (-12.1 overall) and tight end Marcus Baugh (-11.5 overall) weren't much help.
Adam: [puts down box]
hmm, looks bad. too bad the guy's a statue.
[picks box up, continues packing]
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ROUND 2, PICK 3: Wilton Speight, QB, Michigan
Which way do the Harbawbacks go? [Patrick Barron]
Off: QB Wilton Speight (M)
Def: DT Mo Hurst (M)
Is Wilton Speight going to be the seventh best player in the Big Ten? Probably not. Do I want to be the guy stuck with the QB booby prize in a conference where post-Speight quarterbacks are... Tanner Lee? Clayton Thorson? Richard Lagow in a Mike Debord offense? Definitely not. Bryan gets to be the guy who picks half the plausibly not terrible QBs in the league this year.
Meanwhile in Speight I've got a Harbaugh QB who had 7.7 YPA and a 18-7 TD-INT ratio despite playing two games and change with a broken collarbone of some variety. How much of his late fade was because he shouldn't have been playing at all is unknown, but even if it's just 50% that's a QB who could blow up in year two under the best quarterback developer in the nation. Probably "should" blow up.
I'm not too stressed about Speight's performance being negatively impacted by his surrounding cast; Ian Bunting should be a reasonable Butt approximation, Amara Darboh was good but not great a year ago, and Jehu Chesson's impact faded late for reasons unknown. Michigan will have sufficient weapons for his numbers to be shiny.
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BiSB: Surely at least one of the three safe quarterbacks will survive these next six picks, so I won’t be left with…
Aw, hamburgers.
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BiSB: ROUND 2, PICK 4: Tyquan Lewis, WDE, Ohio State
[via Eleven Warriors]
You may not have known Tyquan Lewis won B1G Defensive Lineman of the Year last year because Ohio State fans were too busy tweeting about Jabrill Peppers to mention it. But it’s true. So one would think that with three defensive linemen off the board already, Lewis would be one of them. And yet, everyone skipped over Tyquan Lewis for the shiny new objects (a decision I agree with, but let’s ignore that for the moment).
Lewis racked up 8 sacks and 10.5 TFLs, as well as 5 hurries and 3 forced fumbles. PFF had him with 52 total pressures on the year, which is many. But what is most impressive about Lewis is that he was that productive as a pass rusher without losing discipline. He’s not the long, lean type of WDE who relies solely on speed, which can lead to guys getting too much depth and getting out of their lanes. Lewis is a thicker, stronger end who is equally adept at collapsing the pocket directly through the OT as he is getting around the edge.
One knock on Lewis is his lack of production against the run; he only made 29 tackles all season. However, he doesn’t miss tackles, and Ohio State only allowed 3.35 yards per carry on the season, so my concerns are minimal.
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BiSB: ROUND 3, PICK 1: Tegray Scales, LB, Indiana
Pesky. [Bryan Fuller]
Off: RB Saquon Barkley (PSU)
Def: DE Tyquan Lewis (OSU), LB Tegray Scales (IU)
If you’re just waking up from a coma you entered in the summer of 2016… hoooo boy, you’d better sit down. Some stuff happened that is going to be really hard to explain. Case in point: Indiana’s defense is now good. They went from 108th in defensive S&P+ in 2015 to 31st in 2016, and dropped from 6.37 yards per play allowed in conference to 5.03 YPP allowed. And Tegray Scales was a huge reason for that.
Scales was a second-team All-American to Sports Illustrated, and for good (if over-reliant on counting stats) reasons. He led the nation with 23.5 TFLs. Of his conference-leading 126 tackles, 93 of were solo, which also led the nation, with no other Power Five player registering more than 78. He also registered seven sacks and four QB hurries.
Scales is the kind of diverse linebacker who can do anything you ask of him. He can cover the field sideline-to-sideline, he can drop into coverage, and he can get downhill in a big damn hurry. And most importantly in the world of 2017 linebacking, you can put him in space and feel comfortable. He’s a great athlete and a sure tackler.
(If this is all too much for you to process, Person Who Spent 2016 In A Coma, maybe you can gain some solace in the fact that Michigan State and Notre Dame combined for 7 wins.)
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Brian: ROUND 3, PICK 2: Stephen Richardson, NT, Minnesota
Off: QB Wilton Speight (M)
Def: NT Stephen Richardson (Minn), DT Mo Hurst(M)
You think Ryan Glasgow has moved on to the NFL I say not so fast my friend:
Richardson has been giving centers fits from the nose tackle position this season and his 89.0 overall grade ranks second in the nation among interior defensive linemen. He uses a quick first step to get into the center’s pads and from the nose tackle spot and he fires out low to shoot gaps to disrupt plays in the backfield.
Richardson is another massive disruptor on the interior with an astounding 41 pressures last year, seven of which he led to sacks. Y'all can grab the pretty boy WDEs on stacked lines who benefit from edge rushing by themselves. I'll take the beef machines on the inside who are just as productive in a much more difficult situation.
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The draft so far:
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On the next episode of DRAFTAGEDDON: Al Borges enters the fray, ruins everything. Seth scouts a team other than Ohio State….eventually.
[ED-S: Comments off bc they were causing the blue screen of death. Feel free to start athread]