Life After DJ: The Post-Wilson Squad and Potential Additions

It's your show now. [Bryan Fuller]

Yesterday's NBA Draft withdrawal deadline brought good news and bad news for Michigan. Moe Wagner will be back for his junior year; DJ Wilson is staying in the draft, reportedly after getting a first-round guarantee from Utah, which owns the #24 and #30 picks.

Wagner's return is of paramount importance. He took the highest share of shots of any Wolverine last year, and he'll be leaned on even more after the departures of the next two players on that list, Derrick Walton and Zak Irvin. With grad transfer Jaaron Simmons, a strong pick-and-roll ballhandler, stepping into Walton's role, Michigan's offense should once again revolve around the 1-5 high screen.

Losing Wilson, however, has a significant impact on how this team can play. Let's start with a look at the current roster, keeping in mind that positional designations can be fluid, especially between SG-SF-PF:

The area of concern is the position Wilson just vacated: power forward, where Duncan Robinson is poised to play huge minutes. Wilson's absence eliminates a lot of Michigan's lineup versatility. They're going to be small at the four, because Wagner isn't quick enough to stick with the vast majority of college fours, eliminating the potential to slide him down a position when Jon Teske or Austin Davis steps in at center—that lineup only looks viable against the rare team like last year's Purdue squad that occasionally plays two traditional bigs.

So how does Wilson's departure impact the team? How does John Beilein adjust? Let's take a look.

[Hit THE JUMP.]

PERSONNEL

As the roster currently stands, Duncan Robinson is going to play a huge role. At 6'8", 215 pounds, he's the only returning player who's built to play the four. I've seen several lineup projections with Charles Matthews getting time at that spot, but I don't think that will work; at 6'6", 190, he just doesn't have the requisite size—even Beilein's most undersized power forward, Zack Novak, played at 210 pounds.

That means incoming freshman Isaiah Livers is almost certain to not only crack the rotation, but see significant playing time. He'll be the most natural power forward on the roster, and while his defense may not be a strength as a true freshman, it should still be an upgrade over Robinson's.

The ripple effect also means Michigan is a little thin on the wings, especially if Ibi Watson can't bounce back from an ugly freshman year. If he can't contribute, it'll be up to freshmen Jordan Poole and Eli Brooks to provide depth behind Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman and Matthews. Poole, who has a natural role as a sharpshooter with NBA range, is the most likely to see 10-15 minutes off the bench—he'll at least provide spacing and outside shooting.

OFFENSE

Even though Wilson was one of the most efficient offensive players in the conference, this area is where his absence will be felt the least. He was utilized as a (very effective) role player last year, and his production tended to happen in spurts. If there's one thing Robinson can do, it's score; other than shifting a number of shots from the paint to the three-point arc, there shouldn't be much change here: the starting lineup will still be lethal if Matthews and Simmons live up to expectations, and Poole can hopefully fill Robinson's old role of designated bench gunner. Livers is an intriguing player here, too, as a natural four with a good-looking shot, three-point range, and impressive passing.

DEFENSE

This is where things get hairy. According to Synergy, Wilson was easily Michigan's best defender last year, giving up only 0.74 points per possession (83rd percentile) while taking on the most individual defense possessions of any Wolverine. Xavier Simpson (0.76 PPP, 80th percentile) was the only other rotation player to grade out above the 60th percentile, and he played a lot less than Wilson.

Robinson, meanwhile, ranked in the 23rd percentile on defense. While Oregon iso'd him to death in the Sweet Sixteen, his bigger issues came off the ball—he did a very poor job of fighting through off-ball screens and wasn't great at closeouts, two things Wilson did very well. Livers has good defensive upside, though it's hard to bank on a true freshman being a plus player in that department.

Wilson was Michigan's only player who consistently blocked shots since Ekpe Udoh, and the only guy who looks like he could be a rim protector—Jon Teske—is stuck behind Wagner. Wilson arguably made an even bigger impact on M's defense with his ability to switch between perimeter players and bigs and hold up well against both. That's not going to be the case with Robinson, and Livers is going to take some time to develop.

REBOUNDING

This was already an area of concern—it's hard to overstate the importance of Derrick Walton's defensive rebounding the last couple years—and it's only become a bigger one sans Wilson. While Wilson wasn't an impact rebounder last year, especially once conference play hit (7.2 OR%, 12.2 DR% in B1G play), he had a lot of upside in that area that Robinson (0.4%, 10.0%) simply doesn't. Livers wasn't sound on the glass in high school last year, either.

Michigan is going to need their athletic wings to crash the glass with Walton-like aplomb, because Wagner isn't a great rebounder and now he doesn't have another 6'10" guy alongside him. This could be a real problem when Michigan faces teams like Michigan State, which now has a huge, deep, and talented frontcourt.

POSSIBLE ADDITIONS

please?

Wilson going pro does leave Michigan with an open scholarship, and given the above it'd sure be nice if they could use it on someone who's viable at the four. At the moment, there are three known options, though none of them seem exceedingly likely.

Sam Webb posted yesterday that he expects M will attempt to get back in the mix for Pitt grad transfer Cam Johnson, a coveted 6'8" wing who's in transfer limbo after Pitt blocked him from transferring to another ACC school:

I mentioned this in a reply to one of the threads below, but my gut tells me Michigan will kick the tires Pitt grad transfer Cam Johnson. He dropped Michigan from consideration due in part to the inability to guarantee him a spot. He is a versatile wing that is a big time academic kid, and PITT is blocking North Carolina as an option. I don't know if anything will come of renewed interest on the Wolverines' part, but my gut tells me they will at least give it a try.

Johnson has two years of eligibility remaining, which makes him a particularly enticing option. He's a proven outside shooter who was very effective as a role player for Pitt; while he mostly played the three for them, and would need to do more work on the glass at Michigan, he's an ideal fit for Beilein's system. He'd be a huge get.

Another possible grad transfer is Illinois State's MiKyle McIntosh, who withdrew from the draft yesterday. He's got the requisite bulk and rebounding ability, and he's a decent outside shooter whose numbers would likely improve when not playing an extreme high-usage role. Unfortunately, Wisconsin may have the inside track after hiring ISU assistant Dean Oliver to their staff.

The final possibility is landing four-star Canadian forward Ignas Brazdeikis, who has strong interest in Michigan, and convincing him to reclassify to 2017, which is on the table. He'd yet to talk about this possibility with the coaches when UMHoops' Orion Sang talked to him yesterday, and the coaches don't necessarily have to rush; they can kick the tires on grad transfer prospects, who are likely to have a bigger immediate impact, before giving Brazdeikis a spot on the 2017-18 roster.

OUTLOOK

Wilson's departure relegates Michigan to the second tier of Big Ten contenders behind Michigan State and Purdue, and there are a lot of believers in Minnesota and Northwestern, too. (I'm rather skeptical of both.) Maryland will be dangerous now that Justin Jackson has announced he'll return for his sophomore year, Indiana has plenty of talent and Archie Miller, and you can never fully dismiss Wisconsin from contention.

Landing Cam Johnson would vault Michigan into that first tier; if that happened, I think they'd have as good a shot at the conference crown as anyone save (sigh) MSU. As the roster currently stands, this is a team that's going to have to out-gun their opponents, and I see that as a team that'll finish in the 3-6 range in the conference—good enough to get in the tournament, but probably not a team that's going to make a major postseason run.