Big Ten Tournament Preview: Wisconsin

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: Zak Irvin's 18 points helped Michigan even the season series at the Crisler Center. [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

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THE US

It's going pretty well.

Michigan has pulled themselves off the 8/9 line, moving up to a seven-seed on the Bracket Matrix and as high as a six-seed on some recent updates, including Joe Lunardi's. While they probably can't vault to a five-seed, a win should solidify their standing as a six-seed, which would allow them to avoid a one- or two-seed in the first weekend of the tournament. They shouldn't drop lower than a seven even with a loss.

THE LAST TIME

Michigan avenged a 68-64 defeat at the Kohl Center with a 64-58 victory at Crisler. Zak Irvin snapped out of an ugly slump with 18 points, Moe Wagner dropped 20 points and one thunderslam on Zak Showalter, and Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman had a pivotal four-point play to highlight a 12-point outing. For Wisconsin, Ethan Happ torched Michigan in the first half, then went quiet in the second as the Wolverines adjusted their defense, throwing more double-teams his way.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Wisconsin didn't have starting guard Bronson Koenig for the Michigan win at Crisler due to a calf injury that he returned from the following game. The Badgers will still be shorthanded, however, as backup guard Khalil Iverson, who scored ten points in 22 minutes in the last matchup, went home after a death in the family. Iverson's absence didn't seem to hurt the Badgers much in the semifinal against Northwestern; they won 76-48 in a game they led by as many as 35 before extended garbage time. Only one Badger played more than 30 minutes, which could provide an edge as Michigan heads into their fourth game in four days; Wisconsin is on their third in three days after earning a double bye.

Koenig's return has been welcome. He scored 16+ in five straight games before an off-day against the Wildcats. He mostly sticks to the perimeter, where he's a lethal shooter. While he's not a high-volume assist guy, he takes care of the ball.

Center Ethan Happ remains the go-to guy. Oddly, he didn't play very well in Wisconsin's win over Michigan, then got off to a scorching start in Crisler before frequent double-teams and foul trouble limited his second-half production. Happ is an excellent post scorer, gifted passer, and a dominant interior defender, though Moe Wagner scored 21 the last time around by drawing him out of his comfort zone. Happ went just 2-for-14 from the free-throw line in the four games before the semifinal, then drained 8 of 11 against Northwestern. He's below 50% on the season, but he's capable of much better. Fouling him is still not a bad idea in the right circumstances.

Power forward Nigel Hayes, who will draw DJ Wilson, still hasn't lived up to the potential he showed as a secondary option in his sophomore season. He's still an effective rebounder, defender, and passer, but his shooting splits in conference play weren't pretty: 45/24/57 (2P%/3P%/FT%). Wilson and Hayes essentially cancelled each other out at Crisler, but this matchup could have much greater importance this time around.

Zak Showalter and Vitto Brown round out the starting lineup. Showalter has been very efficient while only using the occasional possession. He's at his best as a spot-up shootert. Brown has been the opposite type of player this season: high-usage and low-efficiency. He attempts more threes than twos but is shooting only 30% from beyond the arc, and he turns the ball over a lot for a player who spends that much time floating around the perimeter. He remains a good defender and rebounder, at least.

Perimeter-oriented sharpshooter D'Mitrik Trice, brother of Travis, is the primary option off the bench. With Iverson out, the rest of the rotation is comprised of players who use scant few possessions on offense: guards Jordan Hill and Brevin Pritzl and stretch four Alex Illakainen.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Conference-only stats.

Four Factors explanation

The Badgers don't play a pretty brand of offensive basketball. They finished ninth in the conference in two-point percentage, tenth in three-point percentage, and 13th in free-throw percentage; I can't help but note they run most of their offense through the post. They've salvaged the seventh-best offensive efficiency in the Big Ten with offensive rebounds and turnover avoidance. The offense has perked up of late, but it hasn't been the ruthlessly efficient attack we're used to seeing from the Badgers.

Wisconsin's defense is the best in the conference. Happ creates a ton of chaos in the paint; he's eighth in block rate, first in steal rate, and positionally sound without committing many fouls—a unicorn of a defender. With Happ, Hayes, and Brown forming a formidable last line of defense, conference opponents made only 42.1% of their twos (lowest mark in the B1G) and turned the ball over often. There's some susceptibility on the perimeter; B1G opponents made 40.4% of their threes, albeit on the fourth-lowest rate of attempts.

THE KEYS

Keep the frontcourt battle even. Slowing Happ is clearly the top priority, and Michigan had done that pretty well in three of the four halfs of basketball they've played against Wisconsin this year. The exception was an 18-point, 8-for-9 first half at Crisler before the Wolverines adjusted by doubling in the post. If Moe Wagner and DJ Wilson can match the productivity of Happ and Hayes, Michigan will be in good shape. To do so, they'll need to stay out of foul trouble, knock down outside shots, and force some turnovers in the post.

Early offense. Wisconsin's halfcourt defense is tough to crack, so Michigan should take the opportunities they can to run out and get some buckets early in the clock. Forcing turnovers off double-teams is one way to do this; Michigan has also been very effective pushing the tempo after defensive rebounds.

DEATH TO BACKBOARDS. I shouldn't need to explain this.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Wisconsin by 1.

Michigan has been able to get away with iffy three-point shooting through the course of this tournament, but if tired legs lead to more of the same against Wisconsin, the Badgers interior attack may prove too much to overcome.

ELSEWHERE

UMHoops preview. Quinn pens another must-read, this time with Xavier Simpson talking about what it's been like to sit and wait behind Derrick Walton:

"That's Derrick's game," Simpson said. "It's not that he's added stuff. He's always had it. He was doing that stuff -- the head fakes, the cross-over, the pull-up -- he did it in open-gym (workouts). Now it's just that he's finally bringing it out. He's showing everyone."

Simpson said all this with an apparent dash of post-traumatic stress from those duels.