Big Ten Tournament Preview: Minnesota

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: Michigan lost a close, whistle-marred game in overtime at Minnesota in February. [Patrick Barron]

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THE US

Moe Wagner sported a wrap on his back during today's game. He told MLive's Brendan Quinn that it's not an issue:

Re. Moritz Wagner's back: He said he's fine. Was just experiencing some tightness.

— Brendan F. Quinn (@BFQuinn) March 10, 2017

There was concern that Wagner hurt himself when he collided with an official in the second half against Purdue, but he'd been wearing the back pad the whole game. Hopefully the tightness doesn't linger into tomorrow.

THE LAST TIME

In the only meeting this season, Minnesota needed overtime and 41 free-throw attempts, the most ever against one of Beilein's Michigan teams, to finish off the Wolverines 83-78 in The Barn. All five Michigan starters scored in double figures, but Derrick Walton and Zak Irvin both had ineffecient performances. Jordan Murphy's 16 points and 15 rebounds led the way for the Gophers. The post-Minnesota mailbag has aged rather well.

The officiating was, um, a factor. Let's leave it at that.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Minnesota outlasted Michigan State 63-58 this afternoon to earn their spot in the semifinals, but it came at a significant price. Starting two-guard Akeem Springs, the team's top three-point shooting threat, left the game with an apparent Achilles injury; he returned to the bench on crutches, so even if the diagnosis isn't that serious, it's very unlikely he'll be available to play. Richard Pitino has kept a short bench this season, so while there's an obvious replacement in the starting lineup (Dupree McBrayer), someone who's barely played lately is going to get more minutes than usual off the bench.

Point guard Nate Mason is a high-usage player who ranks third in the B1G in assist rate and sixth in turnover rate. He creates a lot of looks off the bounce, both for himself and others, but his shooting numbers reflect his penchant for taking tough shots: he's made 39% of his twos and 34% of his threes in Big Ten games. Only a third of his makes this year have been assisted, per hoop-math. Mason salvages decent efficiency by taking care of the ball and capitalizing on frequent trips to the line, where he's shooting 82% on the season. Derrick Walton should be motivated to prove that Mason making first-team all-conference over him was a grave injustice.

Sophomore guard Dupree McBrayer will draw into the lineup in Springs' absence. He plays a similar style as Mason, with nearly half of his attempts getting filed as two-point jumpers. He's much more efficient beyond the arc, where he shot 40% in conference play while posting just a 41% mark on two-pointers. He can function as the primary ballhandler but he's more prone to turnovers than Mason.

Lanky freshman wing Amir Coffey is a good outside shooter and he's effective at using his length to score in the paint. He draws a high number of fouls and moves the ball well.

Power forward Jordan Murphy does the big man stuff quite well; he rebounds, blocks shots, and makes 55% of his twos, and he gave Michigan fits in the first matchup. His high free throw rate is both a blessing and a curse; while he draws a healthy number of fouls, he shoots only 60% at the line. Both he and backup Eric Curry, who fits a very similar profile, have a penchant for taking the occasional three-pointer that they only make ~15% of the time.

Center Reggie Lynch excels as a rebounder and shot-blocker; he finished ninth in the conference in OR%, 15th in DR%, and first in block rate on his way to winning conference defensive player of the year. He can be inconsistent as a scorer but he's been good in that regard lately; he's capable of some highlight-reel finishes at the hoop. His weaknesses are turnovers and foul trouble, and the Gophers are much worse when he's on the bench. Backup Bakary Konate blocks some shots but he's not nearly as impactful on defense and he's a relative nonfactor on the other end.

With McBrayer forced to start, Pitino is likely to turn to either freshman Michael Hurt or sophomore Ahmad Gilbert for some spot minutes off the bench. Hurt is the better bet to get time; Gilbert played only eight minutes in Big Ten games. Hurt has cracked double-digit minutes just once since conference play began and attempted only two shots in that span, both three-pointers (he made one). He's just 2-for-14 on threes on the full season.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Conference-only stats.

Four Factors explanation

Minnesota is not a good shooting team, ranking tenth in the conference in eFG%. They make up for some of that with frequent trips to the line and a low turnover rate, but they still only rank tenth in the conference in offensive efficiency. The Gophers rely heavily on free throws, as we learned all too well in the first game.

The Gophers boast the third-best defense in the Big Ten in large part because they restrict outside shot opportinities; they finished second in 3PA/FGA and third in 3P%. They also block more shots than any other Big Ten team. They don't force many turnovers; hopefully this time around Michigan can better capitalize on getting some extra possessions.

THE KEYS

Contain Mason. Minnesota's offense goes as Mason goes, for the most part. He's going to put up shots no matter what; the key is making those shots tough, as Mason is more than willing to pull up for tough midrange attempts if the lane is closed off—he went 2-for-10 on twos against Michigan at The Barn. Michigan has some options here; they can go with Derrick Walton, whose strength will be an asset in keeping Mason out of the paint, or save Walton's energy and go with MAAR, who's been excellent on defense lately.

Walton-Wagner high screens. Minnesota's defense is tough to crack. Michigan's best bet will be to get Minnesota's shot-blocking bigs away from the basket. Reggie Lynch might have trouble trying to keep with Moe Wagner and all he can do out of the high screen, whether it's slipping to the hoop or popping out for a three, and Walton's ability to pull up from anywhere makes Lynch's job that much more difficult. That should open up some kickout oppotunities, which will be of great importance against a team that doesn't give up many open looks on the perimeter.

Keep the foul battle close. If Michigan and Minnesota end up taking a similar number of free throws, the Wolverines are a very good bet to win this game. The Gophers need an edge here to make up for Michigan's decided shooting advantage.

(I stand by all of these from the first matchup. Sorry about that last one.)

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 3.

Minnesota probably won't be taking 41 free throws this time around. They also perilously thin on the wing with Springs out, which should negate much of the fatigue-related benefit they got from having a double-bye.

ELSEWHERE

UMHoops preview. Quinn, who's been crushing it with his coverage all week, on Zak Irvin:

Walton stood in the Michigan locker room at Verizon Center on Friday grinning one of those did-you-see-that grins.

Originally, he requested that the above quote not be printed. How about now?

"Run it."

Trust me, you want to click through and see the quote in question.