Big Ten Tournament Preview: Purdue

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: Purdue couldn't hang with Michigan on Senior Day. [Bryan Fuller]

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THE US

If you missed it, the Illinois recap is here.

Michigan's normal uniforms may still be on the crashed plane, so it's looking like they'll be outfitted in their practice jerseys again tomorrow:

John Beilein on if Michigan has to continue in the practice uniforms: "We have washers and dryers in Washington D.C. We'll get it done."

— Brendan F. Quinn (@BFQuinn) March 9, 2017

I'm all for wearing these the rest of the tourney regardless of the availability of the regular uniforms.

THE LAST TIME

The lone matchup between these teams in the regular season came on Senior Day at Crisler. The battle of the big men took center stage, and Michigan won it with authority despite an 18-point evening by Caleb Swanigan. Michigan's five-out offense forced Swanigan into an uncomfortable role on defense; Moe Wagner scored 24 points in 27 minutes, going 4-for-8 from beyond the arc. Isaac Haas, meanwhile, was forced to sit for most of the game because Michigan could exploit him and Swanigan in space to the point that Purdue was forced into switching on every screen.

Derrick Walton, Duncan Robinson, and Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman also finished in double figures for Michigan. Purdue got a strong boost from freshman wing Carsen Edwards, who was benched heading into the game in favor of Ryan Cline; Edwards scored 18, the only time in the last six games he's posted double-digit points.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

*Man, that still hurts to type.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Purdue won its final two conference games, at home against Indiana and at Northwestern, after the Michigan loss to secure an outright Big Ten title. Matt Painter has stuck with the lineup change he made heading into the game at Crisler, inserting 41% three-point shooter (and Just A Shooter™) Ryan Cline into the starting lineup to replace enigmatic freshman Carsen Edwards. While Edwards had the superior performance against Michigan, Cline has started and played more minutes since; neither produced much in the last two games.

The rest of this section has been modified/updated from the first preview:

Dominant is a fitting description for star big man Caleb Swanigan. The sophomore logs a huge minute total for a post player, a hidden source of great value at a position that often sees a major dropoff to the backup. (Michigan fans nod knowingly.) He's one of the country's best rebounders. He's shooting 53/42/82 (2P%/3P%/FT%) with a free throw rate just shy of 50 in Big Ten games. He's a solid passer out of the post, albeit prone to turning it over on occasion. While Swanigan scored with great efficiency when he got shots up in the first game, double-teams and pesky defense from Wagner caused him to commit five turnovers. Michigan doubled frequently against Illinois big man Maverick Morgan today with great success; they probably don't need to adjust too much, even though Swanigan is obviously a far superior player.

7'2", 290-pound center/kaiju Isaac Haas, who comes off the bench but plays about half of Purdue's minutes, was rendered effectively unplayable by Michigan's five-out offensive attack in the game at Crisler. Haas eats up an even higher percentage of possessions than Swanigan and does so with impressive efficiency for a post-only player; he makes 58% of his shots, all two-pointers, draws a ton of fouls, and hits 72% of his free throws. As you'd expect, he's a force on the boards and as a rim protector. Turnovers and defending in space are his primary weaknesses. He needs to be ruthlessly efficient in the post to be able to stay on the floor because of the outside shooting of Michigan's big men; he wasn't up to the task the first time around, but he also missed some shots he normally makes.

The biggest difference between last year's Boilermakers and this year's squad is three-point shooting; they're fifth nationally with a 40.6% mark from beyond the arc, a figure that's held steady through conference play. Swanigan isn't a frequent outside shooter, but he hits at a 45% clip. Guard Dakota Mathias is at 48% on a high rate of attempts; Michigan must run him off the line, as he's prone to coughing up the ball when he has to put it on the deck. Forward Vincent Edwards is a 42% three-point shooter who adds a whole lot more than that: he's a decent inside scorer, an excellent free-throw shooter, a willing passer, strong on the offensive glass, and a good defender.

Point guard PJ Thompson has the best ORating in the conference, though that's largely a product of his low usage rate. Once the ball gets into the post, Thompson mostly serves as a spot-up shooter, and he's making 40% of his threes. His primary contribution comes on the other end of the court, where he's an excellent on-ball defender. Thompson's backup is one Spike Albrecht, who hasn't returned to form since the dual hip surgeries; on very low usage, his turnover rate surpasses his assist rate and he's made only 5-of-24 three-point attempts this season.

Freshman Carsen Edwards is the weak spot offensively. He's not quite up to the shooting standards of the other guards at 34% on three-pointers, and while he creates a decent number of looks, he shoots only 41% on twos. Despite being their least efficient scorer among the main options, he takes the highest percentage of the team's shots when he's on the floor.

Guard Ryan Cline gives Purdue another 40%+ three-point shooter. He's a Just A Shooter™ type.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Conference-only stats.

Four Factors explanation

Purdue's offense finished second only to Michigan's in the Big Ten due to their combination of strong post scoring and league-best three-point and free-throw percentages. They're held back a bit by turnovers and surprisingly mediocre offensive rebounding, but this is still a dangerous offense.

The Boilermakers eschew going for turnovers in favor of avoiding fouls, cleaning the glass, and preventing open looks from beyond the arc; they're first in the Big Ten in the former two categories and second in the latter. Perimeter defense is their strength; they're surprisingly bad at blocking shots (13th in B1G) for a team with Literally Godzilla playing half their minutes. By avoiding fouls, closing out strong on threes, and allowing few second-chance points, they force opponents to make do with relatively inefficient shots.

THE KEYS

Avoid foul trouble. Michigan can win this game with Moe Wagner and DJ Wilson using their quickness to make the Haas/Swanigan matchup a mismatch for both teams. The outlook gets a whole lot worse if John Beilein is trying to keep the team afloat with Mark Donnal and Zak Irvin taking those matchups. Sometimes it's best to concede the easy two and live to see the end of the game; the importance of Wagner and Wilson not taking unnecessary fouls is hard to overstate. (I didn't change one word of this from the first preview. Yes, I was quite proud of it.)

Crisp rotations. Swanigan and Haas are probably going to draw the occasional double team as Michigan looks to stop them in the paint and create some turnovers, but Purdue's outside shooting makes that a risky tactic. The onus falls on the guards to communicate, rotate, and at least force the bigs to make difficult skip passes when they're trying to escape the double. Leaving the guards open isn't an option unless—man, this is weird to type—that guard is Spike Albrecht. (Ditto. Purdue went 5-for-16 from beyond the arc at Crisler, and four of those makes were relatively difficult shots by Carsen Edwards, who's a 35% three-point shooter.)

Irvin in control. Michigan got Good Irvin against Illinois. After his brutally bad stretch with 13 points in four games, he's had double-digit points in six of the last seven—with the exception being Purdue, when he limited himself to eight FGAs and played good defense. Irvin has played within himself of late, mostly passing up heroball looks in favor of letting the offense come to him, whether on spot-up looks or pulling up for his favorite shot moving left-to-right off a high screen. When he's doing that, this is a really tough team to stop.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Purdue by 2.

Matt Painter has had five full days to figure out a way to defend Michigan, while the Wolverines are coming off an emotionally exhausting couple days. This could be the continuation of a remarkable run if Michigan has the juice, but it's impossible to know if the travel insanity will catch up to them; meanwhile, Purdue is still a very good team, and they're rested.