Michigan's Three-Point Shooting: Mind The Gap

I prefer the shot on the left. So does Beilein. [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

After the Nebraska evisceration, I wanted to take a closer look at something we discussed on this week's podcast. Michigan generated 12 more three-point attempts than the Huskers, which added to the growing pile of statistical evidence that the Wolverines have undergone a fundamental shift—not on offense, but on defense. John Beilein gave the money quote on it after the Purdue game:

We’ve made a conscious decision to defend the three-point line, knowing that a tough two is much better to give up than an open three, which we were giving up like crazy in our earlier struggles.

The key number to look at is 3PA/FGA: the percentage of each team's field goal attempts that come from beyond the arc. The offense is shooting threes at the usual Beilein offense rate: 45.3%, 16th nationally. Before this year, Beilein's Michigan defenses haven't been good at preventing opponent three-point looks; his best finish in 3PA/FGA was 108th in 2014, and most of his M teams have been in the 200 range.

This season, Michigan opponents are attempting just 29.0% of their field goals from beyond the arc. That puts the Wolverines tenth in the country.

The shift in defensive philosophy, likely a product of adding Billy Donlon to the staff, has created a massive gap in points generated from the three-point line between Michigan and their opponents. Critically, the Wolverines aren't forcing shots to make it happen. I put together a video of Michigan's three-point attempts (two garbage-time attempts excised) against Nebraska with freeze-frames just before the point of release; there are only a couple questionable shots among the 25:

I did the same for Nebraska's shots. While they had a few wide open looks, Michigan did a much better job of closing out on Husker shooters than vice versa, and that's not even the most telling part of this video—that would be the length of the video itself. What's not in there is the number of times Michigan defenders ran potential shooters off the line, forcing them to take those tough twos instead.

Even if Nebraska had hit their open looks, they had little hope of keeping up with Michigan's offense. Their second three-point attempt of the game came with under five minutes left in the first half; by that point, M had opened up a 20-point lead while shooting 8-for-12 on triples.

As conference champion Purdue found out, it's hard to close the three-point gap on Michigan with two-pointers, even when they're going in at a relatively high rate. It helps, of course, that Beilein's offense also generates great looks inside the arc; Michigan is 12th nationally in two-point percentage. This leaves opponents in a bind. Do they try to match Michigan three-for-three, even though the Wolverines have superior shooters to almost any team they face? Or do they run their normal offense and hope to either hit twos at a remarkable rate or get an off game from Michigan's shooters?

I'm not sure there's a good answer.

[Hit THE JUMP to see the numbers behind the three-point gap.]

As with most positive developments this season, this one took hold after the first Nebraska game. Removing the body-bag nonconference games shows a stark contrast in Michigan's ability to create a decided edge from beyond the arc. In that 11-game sample, the Wolverines created just a three points per game edge in scoring on three-pointers despite taking over seven more attempts per game than their opponents. Other than the Iowa game, they also had a tough time generating an advantage in attempts in the early goings of conference play.

The last 13 games have been a completely different story.

The numbers for Michigan's offense are very similar. The defense, however, is ceding two fewer 3PAs per game, and opponents are having a tougher time hitting those attempts. Some of this is statistical noise; opponents were making threes at an unsustainable rate regardless of quality of looks earlier this season, and there's been some serious regression to the mean lately. There's been a noticeable uptick in the quality of M's perimeter defense, however, and I believe that is the primary factor driving these remarkable splits.

Over the last 13 games, Michigan is generating a margin of over 15 points per game from beyond the arc; they've outscored their opponent on three-pointers in each of those 13 games. While they use more possessions on three-pointers than their opponents, their red-hot two-point shooting makes it extremely difficult for most opponents to cover that considerable gap.

By applying the same principles to the defense that have made Beilein's offenses so good for so long, Michigan has become an exceptionally dangerous team. Using Bart Torvik's adjusted efficiency numbers, which come out very closely to KenPom's, Michigan has been a top-ten team nationally since the first Nebraska game. The key has been stingy perimeter defense unlike any we've seen from Beilein in the past.

Happy learned how to putt.