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THE ESSENTIALS
THE ESSENTIALS| WHAT |
#29 Michigan (17-10, 7-7 B1G) at #127 Rutgers (13-15, 2-13) |
|---|---|
| WHERE |
The RAC Piscataway, New Jersey |
| WHEN | 6:30 pm ET, Wednesday |
| LINE |
Michigan -6 (KenPom) Michigan -8.5 (Vegas) |
| TV |
BTN PBP: Brandon Gaudin Analyst: Shon Morris |
Right: Everything about this picture makes me laugh. [Patrick Barron/MGoBlog]
THE US
Michigan is still in good position to make the tournament; they're on all 116 projected brackets that comprise the current matrix. This, unfortunately, is a game that can do much more harm than good; a win keeps them in relatively the same position, while a loss would be a disaster.
Thanks, Delany.
THE LINEUP CARD
Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.
| Pos. | # | Name | Yr. | Ht./Wt. | %Min | %Poss | ORtg | SIBMIHHAT | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 3 | Corey Sanders | So. | 6'2, 181 | 75 | 28 | 90 | Yes | |||||||||||
| Huge-usage, shoot-first PG tasked with carrying offense, does so inefficiently. | |||||||||||||||||||
| G | 5 | Mike Williams | Jr. | 6'2, 198 | 65 | 18 | 110 | Yes | |||||||||||
| Surprisingly effective offensive rebounder, very ineffective shooter. | |||||||||||||||||||
| G | 35 | Issa Thiam | Fr. | 6'9, 190 | 40 | 13 | 89 | Kinda | |||||||||||
| Just A Shooter™ type... who makes 30% of his threes with a 20% turnover rate. | |||||||||||||||||||
| F | 33 | Deshawn Freeman | Jr. | 6'7, 225 | 66 | 24 | 98 | Very | |||||||||||
| RU's best rebounder, disruptive defender, gets to line, awful FT shooter. | |||||||||||||||||||
| C | 34 | CJ Gettys | Jr. | 7'0, 280 | 54 | 20 | 104 | Very | |||||||||||
| Burly grad transfer rebounds well, blocks some shots. Turnover-prone. | |||||||||||||||||||
| G | 0 | Nigel Johnson | Jr. | 6'1, 186 | 64 | 23 | 100 | Kinda | |||||||||||
| At 32% on a healthy number of attempts, RU's most reliable three-point shooter. | |||||||||||||||||||
| F | 11 | Eugene Omoruyi | Fr. | 6'6, 230 | 31 | 18 | 80 | Very | |||||||||||
| Seeing increased role despite bad shooting and a 30% turnover rate. | |||||||||||||||||||
| C | 2 | Shaquille Doorson | So. | 7'0, 270 | 20 | 11 | 92 | Very | |||||||||||
| Decent offensive rebounder and shot-blocker, rarely shoots. | |||||||||||||||||||
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]
THE THEM
In their first year under Steve Pikiell, this Rutgers squad is already substantially better than any of their teams under Eddie Jordan; they bottomed out at #279 on KenPom last year. That makes this team's #127 rank look downright decent, and they have managed to hang relatively close with some decent teams; they're still among the worst major-conference squads in the country.
The offense is best summed up by RU's best player, sophomore point guard Corey Sanders, who leads the Big Ten with a 31.7% shot share while making 40% of his twos, 33% of his threes, and 59% of his free throws. Sanders is a better player than the numbers indicate since he's forced to create the vast majority of his shots; with the surrounding talent, though, he's forced to do the best he can with a bad shot selection.
Here's another way of looking at it: guard Mike Williams has the best ORating among Rutgers players getting at least 40% of their minutes in conference play. That ORating (109.8) ranks him 42nd in the Big Ten; Michigan has five players in the top 21.
Here's one more: freshman Issa Thiam has attempted 77 of his 103 shots from beyond the arc, making them at a 30% clip. He's 7-for-33 on three-pointers in Big Ten games with one assist and nine turnovers. He doesn't rebound. He's started 16 games, including each of their last five.
The Rutgers defense, at least, is much better than their offense. That said, I'm rather skeptical that starting center CJ Gettys...
...can keep up with Moe Wagner.
THE RESUME
Rutgers got through nonconference play with a deceptive 11-2 record; they lost by double digits against the only teams they played that are currently ranked in the top 185 on KenPom. Their two conference wins have come by a combined three points against Nebraska and Penn State.
They did, somehow, take Wisconsin to overtime before losing by seven at MSG, and they had a late six-point lead at Northwestern in their most recent game only to be outscored 21-11 down the stretch.
THE TEMPO-FREE
Conference-only stats.
Rutgers has the worst offense in the conference by nearly nine points per 100 possessions. Their team shooting splits are abhorrent: 41/29/55 (2P%/3P%/FT%) with each individual split the worst in the B1G. They're merely 12th in turnover rate. They do one thing well: rebound their misses, presumably because opponents are overwhelmed by the sheer volume of them.
The defense is average by Big Ten standards, though it looks like Rutgers has benefited from some major three-point luck: they're allowing the lowest three-point percentage in the conference despite giving up the third-highest rate of attempts. Even so, Michigan should look to attack the interior; while RU blocks a healthy number of shots, their paint defense is otherwise mediocre, and they foul a lot.
THE KEYS
Win the game. A bubble team playing Rutgers has but one goal.
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Michigan by 6.
Turn this into a shooting contest and it should be no contest at all.