Hoops Preview: Indiana, Part Two

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: Still obligatory. [Bryan Fuller/MGoBlog]

THE US

There's good news and bad news on the NCAA tournament front. The good: Michigan continues to get on more updated brackets in the Bracket Matrix. They're now the third team out of the field, and Sunday's matchup just happens to be with the last at-large team to make it; a win should get the Wolverines on the right side of the bubble for the moment.

The bad: the NCAA selection committee released the top 16 overall seeds this afternoon and the surprise of the day was the omission of the Big Ten (namely, Wisconsin, which is currently the top four-seed on the matrix). If the committee is down on the top of the conference, that spells trouble for the B1G teams on the bubble.

That all may become irrelevant, of course, if Michigan can't beat Indiana. The Wolverines need at least one upset win (by current KenPom projections) down the stretch to have a realistic chance at an at-large bid. This looks like one of their best opportunities but for the location of the game: Michigan is 1-17 at Assembly Hall since 1996, with the lone victory coming in overtime over a 2008-09 Hoosiers squad that finished 6-25.

In preparation for this game, John Beilein chose to give Derrick Walton and Zak Irvin two days off of practice this week in hopes of keeping the former at his current form and snapping the latter out of his slump. Irvin is quite aware that he needs to play better than he has over the last three games:

"I told the guys this, I know that in order for us to be able to achieve the goals we want, I've got to step up," Irvin said. "I told them that. I look forward to the challenge.

"Everyone goes through adversity throughout the season. It's been my time these last three games and I've gone through it. But I'm not going to let that define me in any way for the rest of the year. I told them, no matter what, whether I'm shooting the ball well or not, I'm going to be positive and I'm going to be a leader out there."

Irvin's last good game came against these very Hoosiers; he had 12 points on nine shot equivalents, three assists, and no turnovers in the blowout at Crisler. A return to that form would be most welcome.

THE LAST TIME

Derrick Walton scored 21 points, Moe Wagner and DJ Wilson exploited frontcourt mismatches with IU's Juwan Morgan limited in his first game back from an ankle injury, James Blackmon Jr.—who sat out the next three games with a knee injury—only mustered four points, and Michigan won by 30.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

The lineup was covered in detail in the first preview. Updates since then: Juwan Morgan is back in the starting lineup after a lingering ankle injury limited him to 11 ineffective minutes off the bench in the first matchup. He's struggled in the four games since, posting ORatings below 90 (and two below 70) in all four, fouling out of two, and failing to record a block in that span; he may still be feeling the effects of the injury, but he's playing 25 minutes or so regardless.

James Blackmon Jr. got shut down by MAAR in the first matchup and sat the next three games with a knee injury he sustained (and played through) during the game. He returned on Thursday against Purdue and only mustered 11 points on 3-for-14 shooting from the field. The Boilermakers rode a late surge to take that game at Assembly Hall and now IU, losers of four of their last five, are in a very similar position to the one Michigan is in:

Even with James Blackmon Jr. (knee) back after missing three games, Indiana was outmanned from the outset. Which is why the Hoosiers will surely find themselves on the wrong side of the next wave of NCAA tournament projections, and will remain there unless they win four or maybe five of their final six regular-season games. And given the quality and/or location of all six opponents, and given the amount of oil the Hoosiers have been leaking of late — four losses in their last five games — a 4-2 finish seems unlikely.

Perhaps we'll see Michigan capitalize on a Hoosier collapse; chances are, however, they'll get IU's best shot—their last two losses were competitive games against Wisconsin and Purdue, the conference's top two teams.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Conference-only stats.

Four Factors explanation

Indiana's shooting has cooled off as Big Ten play has wore on (Blackmon's injury didn't help), and they've compounded that issue by becoming even more turnover-prone; they cough up the rock on 21.2% of their possessions, second-worst in the Big Ten. Michigan successfully kept the Hoosiers off the offensive glass (5 offensive boards, 3 of the dead ball variety) and forced 16 turnovers in the first game; a similar defensive performance would probably be a winning one.

The Hoosier defense has slipped to 13th in the conference, only a half-point per 100 possessions better than Michigan. Unlike Michigan, which is second in the B1G in forcing turnovers and fourth in FTA/FGA, Indiana doesn't do anything very well on defense. The Wolverines got to the line 24 times depite the blowout score (meaning no late-game stat-padding) in the first game; even with Assembly Hall voodoo, they could repeat that, as IU is by far the most foul-prone team in the conference.

THE KEYS

Attack the four. A holdover key from the first game, as this ended up being spot-on. From the recap:

A shorthanded Indiana squad was faced with a choice: stick center Thomas Bryant on Moe Wagner and hope DJ Wilson wouldn't destroy 6'6" injury replacement Zach McRoberts, or put Bryant on Wilson and hope Wagner wouldn't feast on McRoberts in the post. They initially chose the second option. Wagner feasted, scoring 12 of his 14 points in the first half on 6-for-8 shooting. When IU tried putting Bryant on Wagner, it didn't go any better, as Bryant couldn't stay in front of the quicker German big man.

The Hoosiers couldn't exactly slow down Wilson, either. He did a bit of everything, attacking the matchup on McRoberts early, setting up his teammates with gorgeous passes, and providing great rim protection. He finished with 11 points, five rebounds, three assists, four blocks, and a steal; if anything, that undersells his impact.

Juwan Morgan hasn't been the same player since his ankle injury, so this line of attack shouldn't change. Either Wagner or Wilson is going to be able to attack Bryant from the perimeter, while attacking Morgan in the post could lead to both free throws and the insertion of McRoberts, who looked overmatched in the first game.

Attack off turnovers. Another holdover after M scored 25 points off 16 Indiana turnover in the first game. According to hoop-math, IU opponents have a 63.1 eFG% on shots coming in transition off a steal. Michigan, as covered yesterday, has become a lethal fast break team; Duncan Robinson burned the Hoosiers with a couple transition threes the first time around. The Wolverines will look to run when they can and find Robinson or Walton for open spot-up triples before the defense is set.

X or Irvin? Hopefully the extra rest has rejuvenated Zak Irvin. If it's clear early on that he's still mired in a slump, however, Beilein should be much more willing to insert Xavier Simpson in two-PG lineups after Simpson's breakout game against MSU. If one of those two players is playing with good efficiency, Michigan can lean on Walton and the two bigs to carry the load and win the game; if neither is effective, that load may be too much to bear.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Indiana by 3.

Curse you, Assembly Hall voodoo.

ELSEWHERE

UMHoops preview. Alex on Derrick Walton's recent hot streak. Dylan with a more charts-and-graphs version of the same. This is wild:

There's much more—including video—at the link.