[Marc-Gregor Campredon]
Less than a week ago, Michigan hosted a bad Ohio State team and lost, even though the Buckeyes’ best player (JaQuan Lyle) was hobbled and a key cog (Jae’Sean Tate) spent most of the first half on the bench with foul trouble. The Wolverines allowed 16 offensive boards and took over two-thirds of their shots from behind the arc in the narrow defeat. At the time, it felt as if that loss signalled that Michigan wouldn’t be competing for a spot in the NCAA Tournament.
A quick turnaround for the next game - a rematch against Michigan State soon after a competitive loss in East Lansing - wasn’t a problem; the offense caught fire in the first half and ran the Spartans out of the building, and the rest of the game was spent in garbage time with Michigan holding a commanding lead. Like they did against Indiana, the Wolverines managed to put together strong offensive and defensive performances at the same time and atoned for last season’s home no-shows against those teams: in 2016, Michigan lost to IU and MSU by a combined 39 points, and in 2017, they beat those teams by a combined 59 points in Ann Arbor.
If you’d have told me before the season that Michigan would blow out IU and MSU like that in the Crisler Center, I’d be expecting a shot at a top four seed in the tournament. As it stands, Michigan’s still squarely on the bubble; at 5-6 in a mediocre Big Ten conference, the Wolverines probably need to win at least four more to have a good shot at getting in. Road victories over Rutgers and Nebraska are a must, and Michigan needs to steal multiple wins from a group of games that includes trips to Indiana, Minnesota, and Northwestern, and tough home contests against Wisconsin and Purdue. A tournament bid is feasible, especially if Michigan keeps up its newfound defensive competence - after allowing 1.23 points per possession over their first five Big Ten games, they’ve given up 1.01 PPP over their last six, an improvement from historically bad to slightly above average.
As of right now, Michigan ranks 30th in Kenpom, 30th in Sagarin, and 31st in T-Rank, indicating that they have the quality of a tournament team, even if they don’t have the requisite resume. The Wolverines boast the best offense in the Big Ten because of elite shooting - especially due to easy 2-point looks created by their signature scheme - and elite turnover aversion.
Even with John Beilein’s most talented teams, there was usually a significant gap between the offense and defense; Michigan would score so efficiently that indifferent defense didn’t really matter. What Michigan has decidedly lacked since the exodus of talent following the 2013-14 season has been a dynamic playmaker who can take over and dominate in the spread pick-and-roll sets that have become deeply ingrained in the Beilein offense. Of course, Caris LeVert’s injuries were a big reason for that void over the last two seasons, and Zak Irvin has unfortunately been uneven at best as the focal point of Michigan’s attack.
[After THE JUMP: Walton fills the void.]
Ever since Maverick Morgan’s now-infamous characterization of Michigan as a “white-collar” program, Derrick Walton has taken the proverbial leap midway through his senior season and has been one of the best players in the Big Ten. In the seven games since that embarrassing blowout loss at Illinois, Walton has averaged 19.7 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 3.9 assists per game while shooting 56% from two, 58% from three, and 87% from the free throw line. Those are basically All-American numbers. In each of the last four games, Ken Pomeroy’s game score algorithm has deemed Walton the “MVP”; even though the Wolverines went just 2-2 in those four, it was through no fault of Walton’s, as he’s been consistently the best player on the floor in the last couple of weeks.
Beilein was effusive in his praise following Walton’s performance in the big victory over Michigan State. “Can’t say enough about Derrick Walton right now, of just the transformation in the last month … I think he’s finally comfortable with all that experience he gained throughout the time [earlier in his career], he really played with that extra that you need to be a really good player, especially at guard. He’s become so strong with the ball … I’m just really proud of him.”
A little bit of aggressiveness on the offensive end has gone a long way for the senior point guard, as the burden of responsibility has seemingly shifted from Irvin to him with great results. Walton has always been a sharpshooter from 3-point range, but he’s now letting pull-up threes fly in transition and he’s comfortable squaring up a defender and shooting from a standstill when he catches them sagging too far off. Typically those kinds of 3-point attempts are much less valuable than catch-and-shoot opportunities, but Walton has made more unassisted threes than the rest of the Wolverines have combined, per hoop-math. Even though he’s taken the most shots from long range of anyone on the team this season, he’s hitting at a team-best 44% (of players with at least one attempt per game). Like most teams, Michigan is obviously at their best when the threes are falling, and Derrick Walton has been the best at knocking them down.
Over the last several games, the biggest difference is that Walton has handled the ball with a different mentality than before: he’s attacking the basket, hunting shots, drawing fouls, and making decisive choices coming off of screens. For most of his career, he could have been accurately characterized as more of a 3-and-D point guard (which is somewhat of a rarity, as point guards usually score and distribute inside the arc). These last few games - which have coincided with an awful run of form from Irvin - have featured a different Derrick Walton, one who’s seemingly more willing to put the offense on his back and play with the type of control and assertiveness more characteristic of Beilein and LaVall Jordan’s best floor generals - Darius Morris, Trey Burke, and Nik Stauskas.
An excellent post over at UM Hoops takes a look at the statistical trends behind Walton’s recent breakthrough. Among other interesting factoids, Dylan notes that “Walton is the only Big Ten player to create more than a point per possession out of ball screens (including pass outs) among players who have used at least six pick-and-roll possessions per game [this season].” Walton’s prowess on ball screens is being put to good use in an offense that has ideal spacing and a pick-and-pop center who can take slower defenders off the dribble. Beilein’s gorgeous set plays and traditional reads in a motion offense are still there, of course, but simple spread screen-and-rolls became a staple with Morris, Burke, and Stauskas - and Wagner provides an additional threat as Walton is frequently able to find the stretch-five for wide open threes on pick-and-pop plays against unaware big men.
Dylan also focuses on Walton’s 2-point shooting, which had been a bugaboo for him throughout his career; despite playing way bigger than his actual size as a rebounder, Walton often had issues finishing at the rim, especially over larger players. According to Beilein, his recent improvement on those types of shots didn’t come as a surprise.
“He just worked and worked and worked. I think he’s got confidence now that he can take shots that - he was always a low-percentage 2-point shooter so he worked at that. He worked at right- and left-handed layups with a guy pressing on him with a dummy on him and things like that. He worked really hard. With that hard work comes confidence. He’s just really playing with a lot of confidence right now.”
Walton was always a decent threat on ball screens, even with the major liability of not being able to take it to the rim and finish; opponents overplayed the pass on drives and he wasn’t quite as effective as he could have been. In recent games, though, his finishing has improved noticeably. If he’s able to maintain that, Walton will be truly lethal because of his passing and jump-shooting ability.
He’s been playing at a very high level during Big Ten play, but a regression to the mean seems inevitable - Walton’s jumper’s been hot and he’s finishing through contact in ways that are probably not sustainable. Still, he’s been the most efficient Big Ten player in conference play (of players who take up a minimum of 20% of his team’s possessions) and his offensive rating has crept up from 98.1 in an injury-riddled sophomore season to 108.7 as a junior and now up to an impressive 126.4 - all with about the same level of usage. Walton’s improvement has been undeniable and the latest surge could mean that there’s more to come.
Despite having a more reserved personality, Walton has emerged as the leader of the team as of late with his inspired play on both ends of the floor - and he seems to be relishing the role. Michigan’s variable defensive intensity and occasional passivity on offense are long-running issues that probably can’t be fixed, but Walton’s been a positive influence in regards to those problems as of late. With just eight games at most remaining in his senior season, he’s been playing the best basketball of his life and he might just be the determining factor in getting Michigan into the tournament. Of course, Zak Irvin will have to play better and Wagner and DJ Wilson need to avoid foul trouble for that to happen. Michigan also can’t afford to relapse into the bad defensive habits that doomed them in several games earlier this season.
If there’s anything that can take Michigan’s already outstanding offense up another notch, it’s the sublime play of Walton, who has become more impactful as of late. A star senior guard can carry teams a long way in college basketball, and Michigan will need Walton to help save what has been a largely disappointing season. His recent play has been one of the best subplots for Michigan this year, and hopefully he can keep it up to get Michigan into the tournament.
Ace Anbender transcribed the quotes in this piece.