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THE ESSENTIALS
THE ESSENTIALS| WHAT |
#40 Michigan (14-9, 4-6 B1G) vs #49 Michigan State (14-9, 6-4) |
|---|---|
| WHERE |
Crisler Center Ann Arbor, Michigan |
| WHEN | 9 pm ET, Tuesday |
| LINE |
Michigan -4 (KenPom) Michigan -4.5 (Vegas) |
| TV |
ESPN PBP: Dan Shulman Analyst: Dan Dakich |
Right: Searching for help, probably. [Marc-Gregor Campredon/MGoBlog]
THE US
As covered in detail yesterday, Michigan is in must-win mode now. They have three home games left among their eight remaining regular-season games. Tonight's is the only one in which they're favored. They need to win five of their last eight, in all likelihood, to feel comfortable about their at-large chances. They haven't won a true road game all year.
Michigan's most likely path to the tournament is sweeping the rest of the home slate (MSU, Wisconsin, Purdue) and taking games at Rutgers and Nebraska. Those who are understandably pessimistic about M's ability to hold up against the Badgers and Boilermakers can pin their hopes on beating a fading Minnesota squad in The Barn and hoping Northwestern pulls a Northwestern down the stretch. While the task is by no means impossible, almost no matter how you slice it, M needs to come out on top tonight.
THE LAST TIME
In the matchup at the Breslin Center nine days ago, Derrick Walton willed his way to 24 points and Michigan won the rebounding battle (hard to believe after Saturday, I know), but that was about all that went right in a 70-62 loss that didn't feel as close as the final score. Zak Irvin didn't score, Moe Wagner couldn't stay out of foul trouble, and the team shot only 40% on twos and 27% on threes.
For the Spartans, big man Nick Ward played only 16 minutes—it turns out he was battling the flu—and made all six of his shots from the field. Miles Bridges had a rather inefficient 15 points but came up big down the stretch, while Cassius Winston repeatedly worked his way into the paint for 16 points, ten of which came at the line.
THE LINEUP CARD
Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.
| Pos. | # | Name | Yr. | Ht./Wt. | %Min | %Poss | ORtg | SIBMIHHAT | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 11 | Tum Tum Nairn | Jr. | 5'10, 175 | 59 | 13 | 109 | Kinda | |||||||||||
| Decent distributor, but wonky shot has only improved slightly. Tiny usage for PG. | |||||||||||||||||||
| G | 14 | Eron Harris | Sr. | 6'3, 190 | 59 | 24 | 105 | Not At All | |||||||||||
| Excellent three-point shooter both on spot-ups and off the bounce. | |||||||||||||||||||
| G | 1 | Josh Langford | Fr. | 6'5, 210 | 50 | 15 | 110 | Not At All | |||||||||||
| Good spot-up shooter who sticks to perimeter; 3 FT attempts in B1G play. | |||||||||||||||||||
| F | 22 | Miles Bridges | Fr. | 6'7, 230 | 55 | 26 | 102 | Not At All | |||||||||||
| ORtg doesn't do his all-around game justice. As he goes, so goes MSU. | |||||||||||||||||||
| C | 44 | Nick Ward | Fr. | 6'8, 250 | 48 | 33 | 106 | Very | |||||||||||
| Massive-usage post scorer. Great rebounder and shot-blocker. Just over the flu. | |||||||||||||||||||
| G | 5 | Cassius Winston | Fr. | 6'0, 185 | 51 | 25 | 106 | Kinda | |||||||||||
| Boasts #1 assist rate in the country, but inconsistent shot and too many TOs. | |||||||||||||||||||
| F | 25 | Kenny Goins | So. | 6'6, 230 | 47 | 12 | 99 | Very | |||||||||||
| Former walk-on forced to spot Ward at C. Decent finisher but very TO-prone. | |||||||||||||||||||
| G | 3 | Alvin Ellis | Sr. | 6'4, 210 | 40 | 20 | 104 | No | |||||||||||
| Decent outside shooter, disruptive defender getting more time lately. | |||||||||||||||||||
| G | 20 | Matt McQuaid | So. | 6'4, 200 | 49 | 15 | 99 | No | |||||||||||
| Just A Shooter™ making 35% of threes, 29% of twos. 3/3 3P in first matchup. | |||||||||||||||||||
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]
THE THEM
Covered in great detail in the first game preview, though I shouldn't omit reserve guard Matt McQuaid this time around. McQuaid briefly broke out of a season-long slump to hit all three of his three-point attempts in the first game; he should be run off the line at all costs, as he's made only 29% of his twos this year.
As mentioned above, Nick Ward played through the flu in the first matchup, as did backup center Kenny Goins. (And Zak Irvin, FWIW.) That lingered through last Thursday's MSU win over Nebraska, which Goins started after Ward had a brief hospital stay after the Michigan game. Tom Izzo says both are fully recovered.
THE RESUME
The Spartans struggled through a nonconference gauntlet that included losses to four of the top 16 teams in the country and a slip-up against #118 Northeastern. After a 3-0 start in Big Ten play, they lost four of the next five, then bounced back with consecutive wins over Michigan and Nebraska.
THE TEMPO-FREE
Conference-only stats.
With the center position down to Nick Ward, scotch tape, and some spare paper clips, MSU's offense looks different than any Izzo offense that's preceded it. That's mostly based on their performance on the glass: this is on pace to be Izzo's worst offensive rebounding team in his tenure by some distance. They're more turnover-prone than usual and also more reliant on the outside shot.
The defense has managed to remain strong due to excellent interior defense and rebounding; I realize this is hard to reconcile with the issues on offense. The Spartans block a lot of shots; they also commit a lot of fouls.
THE KEYS
Get Ward off the court. Keeping this one from the first game. Ward had his way with Michigan's interior defense when he was on the court even though he was flu-ridden enough to be hospitalized after the game. That, uh, doesn't bode particularly well for M stopping him in any way other than foul trouble now that he's healthy. The good news is that's not far-fetched; Ward averages 5.5 fouls/40 minutes and doesn't have the speed/agility to stay with Moe Wagner or DJ Wilson if they take him off the dribble. Conversely, Wagner staying out of foul trouble is, as always, paramount to M's chances to win.
Stay focused, MAAR. Muhammad-Ali Adbur-Rahkman's defense has been up and down this season. It's tough to predict whether he'll be locked in, like he was against James Blackmon Jr. and Indiana, or prone to drifting off, like he was against Ohio State. With Eron Harris and Josh Langford presenting constant threats to drill spot-up triples, MAAR needs to be focused and not get caught ball-watching; he did a good job of that the first time around, when neither Harris nor Langford even attempted a three.
Do something, Zak Irvin. Michigan probably wins both of the last two games if Irvin fulfills this goal. He decidedly did not. There's no Plan B with Ibi Watson apparently not ready to see anything approaching significant minutes, so M is going to ride or die with Irvin. At the very least, he needs to cut down on the turnovers and bad shot selection while trying to get his shooting dialed back in; he can be effective if he sticks to controlled drives off the pick-and-roll.
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Michigan by 4.
The proverbial momentum was heading the complete opposite way heading into the first matchup, so let's hope it swings once again. Vegas is more optimistic than both KenPom and the average Michigan fan: after the line opened at M -3.5 or -4 in most places, it's moved to M -4.5 or -5.
ELSEWHERE
UMHoops preview. Brendan Quinn on Charles Matthews:
Ineligible to play this year due to NCAA transfers rules, Matthews is the star of Michigan's scout team. According to those who attend practices, he's described as follows: Slasher. Dynamic athlete. Shot creator. Lock-down defender.
Essentially, everything the Wolverines are currently missing.
"When we go five-on-five, he does some things where you stop and say, 'Wow,'" Zak Irvin said. "He's going to be something special."
Man, let's hope so.