[Rich Barnes – USA Today]
Last Week
Michigan 64 - Wisconsin 68
Illinois 68 - Purdue 91
Indiana 78 - Penn State 75
Ohio State 67 - Nebraska 66
Maryland 84 - Iowa 76
Penn State 52 - Purdue 77
Nebraska 64 - Rutgers 65
Illinois 57 - Michigan 66
Michigan State 75 - Indiana 82
Wisconsin 78 - Minnesota 76 (OT)
Northwestern 74 - Ohio State 72
Current Standings
T-1. Maryland (5-1)
T-1. Wisconsin (5-1)
T-3. Northwestern (5-2)
T-3. Purdue (5-2)
T-5. Indiana (4-3)
T-5. Michigan State (4-3)
T-7. Iowa (3-4)
T-7. Michigan (3-4)
T-7. Minnesota (3-4)
T-7. Nebraska (3-4)
T-7. Penn State (3-4)
T-12. Ohio State (2-5)
T-12. Illinois (2-5)
14. Rutgers (1-6)
Northwestern is Actually Good
With Rutgers now permanently affixed to the last-place spot in the conference, it’s easy to forget that Northwestern used to be that bad – and that they were that bad for a really long time. Everybody knows that Northwestern hasn’t ever made it to the NCAA Tournament, but it’s hard to overstate exactly how overmatched the Wildcats were for most of their history. They were Rutgers before Rutgers somehow got a bid to the Big Ten and became Rutgers. They aren’t that anymore.
Right now, Northwestern is 5-2 in Big Ten play despite having already played five conference games on the road. They’re a half-game out of first place. They’re 16-4 overall, and their worst loss came on the road to Michigan State. Right now, 77 of the 78 mock brackets in the Bracket Matrix have NU in the NCAA Tournament – and many of them fall into the 7-10 seed range, a fairly comfortable position. Kenpom projects the Wildcats to finish 23-8 (12-6 in the Big Ten), which would certainly lock them into a spot in March Madness for the first time. At the risk of jinxing things, Northwestern should feel pretty good about their chances.
This past weekend, Northwestern won in Columbus for the first time since the 70’s, and it didn’t even feel like a surprise. Kenpom had favored them – slightly – to win; Ohio State is one of the worst non-Rutgers teams in the Big Ten; Northwestern has been having their best season ever. Still, it was surreal to watch the Wildcats, who were led by scoring two-guard Scottie Lindsey, emerge with a win over Thad Matta on the road – especially because of some excruciating losses NU had suffered to the Buckeyes in recent years. They benefited from 11 missed OSU free throws and won by two in a tightly-contested game.
Right now, Northwestern’s in the top half of the conference in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Some outstanding rim protection (and three-point defense, which is largely random) anchors their defense, which ranks in the top ten of eFG% allowed by opponents. With Dererk Pardon back from injury, they have the size in the frontcourt to give most teams a lot of problems up front. With the emergence of Lindsey and Vic Law as perimeter scoring threats, NU has enough firepower outside to complement Bryant McIntosh (who’s regressed some this season). This isn’t a typical Northwestern team, to say the least. Barring an unexpected implosion, they’ll be a tough out for someone in the tournament come March.
[More after the JUMP]
Indiana Rights the Ship Despite Injuries
Starting with a shocking home upset loss to Nebraska to open Big Ten play, Indiana lost four out of five games (including an out-of-conference loss to Louisville) – they’d seemingly regressed quite a bit since their excellent November. They took care of Illinois and Rutgers at home, and went 2-0 in the last week, bringing their record in the Big Ten to 4-3. Their wins over Penn State and Michigan State might not look particularly important by the end of the season, but avoiding losses in those games was critical for an IU team that still is talented enough to finish in the top four of the conference.
Last season, as part of their run to an outright conference title, the Hoosiers actually lost in Happy Valley; this year, they got some revenge after James Blackmon hit a three at the buzzer to notch a three-point win over the Nittany Lions. Indiana was in control of the game, leading 71-58 with five minutes left, but Penn State’s offense woke up in the game’s final minutes and they tied it up shortly before Blackmon’s buzzer-beater. Indiana isn’t really threatening to miss the tournament as of right now, and avoiding a loss to PSU certainly is helpful in that regard.
In that game to Penn State, wing OG Anunoby suffered a knee injury that will force him to miss the rest of the season. While he wasn’t exactly living up to the NBA Draft hype that accompanied him into the season, Anunoby was still a defensive menace and strong rebounder as a stretch-four, and his offense was a nice complement to the likes of Blackmon, Robert Johnson, and Thomas Bryant. Juwan Morgan – another versatile four – has been dealing with injuries throughout his career and missed both the Penn State and Michigan State games.
Indiana’s matchup against the Spartans featured the absences of multiple big men on both sides, but IU won a high-scoring affair after playing most of the second half in garbage time. Blackmon stole the show once again: he put up 33 points on just 19 shot equivalents and made six threes – only Johnson (17) and Bryant (11) also scored more than 5 points as the Hoosiers put up an excellent 1.28 points per possessions. For State, it was Eron Harris’s best game of the year, but the team defense on Blackmon was just too poor to capitalize on that performance.
Road games against Michigan and Northwestern should provide tests this week for IU – especially if Morgan still is unable to play.
Ethan Happ Destroys Minnesota
Currently tied for first place in the conference, Wisconsin is widely considered the frontrunner – their remaining schedule is easier than Maryland, and various advanced stats metrics prefer the Badgers over the Terrapins. This weekend, they faced a tough test on the road against rival Minnesota, and came away with an impressive overtime win after Bronson Koenig hit a three late and Akeem Springs missed one as time expired.
Even though Koenig hit that big shot and played well in overtime, and even though Nigel Hayes turned in a strong performance for Wisconsin, the star was definitely Ethan Happ, who may have put up the best stat line we’ll see in the Big Ten this season: 28 points (on 23 shot equivalents), 12 rebounds, 6 assists, and 5 blocks. The sophomore big man was everywhere on both ends of the floor, and played well against a strong Gopher front line that typically protects the rim well. It was a a strong bounce-back performance after a relatively mediocre showing against Michigan’s weak big men; Happ dominated in the post against Minnesota and led Wisconsin to a huge win in a very competitive and back-and-forth game.
I’ll profile Purdue big man Caleb Swanigan soon – another deserving candidate for Big Ten Player of the Year – but Happ has definitely made a strong case for himself as well.
Chart of the Week
Now that we’re more than a third of the way through conference play, let’s take a look at how each team stacks up on each side of the floor. Schedule differences still exist right now, but ultimately these data points will probably be pretty close to what the final numbers for each team look like.
Good Offense, Good Defense: Maryland, Northwestern, Purdue, Wisconsin
Wisconsin and Purdue are to be expected here, but Maryland and Northwestern are somewhat of a surprise. The Terrapins are playing great defense for such a young team and the Wildcats have had a breakthrough in year four under Chris Collins.
Good Offense, Bad Defense: Indiana, Michigan, Nebraska
Indiana and Michigan are similar teams and should play an exciting, offense-friendly game in a few days. The Hoosiers have the best offense in the Big Ten and the third-worst defense; the Wolverines have the second-best offense and worst defense.
Bad Offense, Good Defense: Michigan State, Minnesota, Penn State, Rutgers
Minnesota will probably make the NCAA Tournament, but their offense has been quite poor in conference play – and the Gophers are on a three-game losing streak. Unsurprisingly, Rutgers still has the worst offense in the league by a significant margin.
Bad Offense, Bad Defense: Illinois, Iowa, Ohio State
Illinois is maybe the most experienced team in the league, but they’re –12.3 points per 100 possessions in the Big Ten. Iowa’s very young, so they have an excuse. It’s hard to believe what’s happened to Ohio State; Thad Matta had such excellent teams in Columbus but it looks like that time has come to a close.
Up Next
Tuesday
Rutgers @ Maryland, 7:00, BTN
Purdue @ Michigan State, 7:00, ESPN
Penn State @ Wisconsin, 9:00, BTN
Wednesday
Minnesota @ Ohio State, 7:00, BTN
Iowa @ Illinois, 9:00, BTN
Thursday
Nebraska @ Northwestern, 8:00, BTN
Indiana @ Michigan, 9:00, ESPN2
Saturday
Wisconsin @ Rutgers, 12:00, BTN
Maryland @ Minnesota, 2:00, BTN
Illinois @ Penn State, 4:30, BTN
Ohio State @ Iowa, 8:00, ESPN2
Sunday
Michigan @ Michigan State, 1:00, CBS
Purdue @ Nebraska, 4:30, BTN
Indiana @ Northwestern, 6:30, BTN