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THE ESSENTIALS
THE ESSENTIALS| WHAT |
#45 Michigan (12-7, 2-4 B1G) vs #74 Illinois (12-7, 2-4) |
|---|---|
| WHERE |
Crisler Center Ann Arbor, Michigan |
| WHEN | 2:15 pm ET, Saturday |
| LINE |
Michigan -6 (KenPom) Michigan -7 (Vegas) |
| TV |
BTN PBP: Kevin Kugler Analyst: Bob Wenzel |
Right: DJ Wilson was a bright spot in an otherwise dismal first matchup against Illinois. [Patrick Barron/MGoBlog]
THE US
Michigan needs seven or eight more conference wins out of their remaining 12 games to have a realistic shot at an at-large bid without making a huge run in the conference tourney. This is one of six games in which they're the outright favorite on KenPom; they must hold court at home.
In his press conference today, John Beilein suggested that some younger guys could get a chance if the team's veterans continue making freshman-like mistakes:
Beilein says there's going to come a time when recurring errors by veterans will just have to lead to a benching. Says team needs a spark
— Nick Baumgardner (@nickbaumgardner) January 20, 2017
That was in response to Nick's question about Mark Donnal's missed blockouts against Wisconsin, so this may be the #FreeTeske game, and Beilein even mentioned rethinking Austin Davis' redshirt. Xavier Simpson's work on defense has probably earned him a longer look, as well. Ibi Watson has only been on the court for four minutes in conference play, so it doesn't seem like he's close to breaking through, but Beilein mentioned Zak Irvin's habit of driving into bad situations, so perhaps this is his time, too.
THE LAST TIME
It's rarely good when a game leads to a players-only meeting. That was the case after Michigan's 85-69 loss to Illinois, which was a defensive catastrophe. A mediocre Illini offense scored a season-best 1.42 points per possession, shot 64% from both inside and outside the arc, and rebounded eight of their 19 misses. Center Maverick Morgan, who called Michigan a "white-collar" team in the aftermath, made 8-of-9 field goals. Freshman reserve Kipper Nichols had 13 points and five offensive boards; he hasn't had more than four points or one offensive rebound in any of his other five appearances.
Michigan got solid outputs from DJ Wilson (19 points), Derrick Walton (11 points, 7 assists), and MAAR (14 points). Those weren't nearly enough to overcome the teamwide defensive effort and poor performances from Moe Wagner (6 points, 3 turnovers) and Duncan Robinson (2 points, 5 fouls).
THE LINEUP CARD
Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.
| Pos. | # | Name | Yr. | Ht./Wt. | %Min | %Poss | ORtg | SIBMIHHAT | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 13 | Tracy Abrams | Gr. | 6'2, 185 | 64 | 19 | 106 | No | |||||||||||
|
Robbie Hummel, Guard Edition. Learned how to shoot while hurt, somehow. First matchup: 24 mins, 4 pts (1/2 2p, 0/1 3p), 2 reb, 3 ast, 1 to, 1 stl | |||||||||||||||||||
| G | 5 | Jalen Coleman-Lands | So. | 6'3, 190 | 66 | 17 | 97 | No | |||||||||||
|
Just A Shooter™ is 43% on 3P in B1G play after rough start to season. First matchup: 31 mins, 12 pts (0/3 2p, 4/5 3p), 3 reb, 4 ast, 2 to | |||||||||||||||||||
| G | 21 | Malcolm Hill | Sr. | 6'6, 225 | 82 | 26 | 117 | No | |||||||||||
|
High-usage and efficient, versatile scorer. Draws a ton of fouls. First matchup: 32 mins, 15 pts (3/5 2p, 1/3 3p, 6/7 ft), 4 reb, 2 ast, 1 to | |||||||||||||||||||
| F | 12 | Leron Black | So. | 6'7, 220 | 44 | 24 | 106 | Very | |||||||||||
|
Excellent rebounder on both ends. Decent finisher who gets to line. First matchup: 17 mins, 10 pts (5/9 2p, 0/1 3p), 5 reb (1 off) | |||||||||||||||||||
| C | 22 | Maverick Morgan | Sr. | 6'10, 245 | 56 | 22 | 109 | Very | |||||||||||
|
Good finisher and shot-blocker, not much of a rebounder. First matchup: 29 mins, 16 pts (8/9 2p), 1 reb, 4 ast, 3 to, 1 blk, 1 stl | |||||||||||||||||||
| F | 2 | Kipper Nichols | Fr. | 6'6, 225 | 9 | 17 | 112 | Kinda | |||||||||||
|
Crushed M on boards in first matchup. Averaging 15 mins in last 4 games. First matchup: 19 mins, 13 pts (5/8 2p, 1/1 3p), 8 reb (5 off) | |||||||||||||||||||
| F | 43 | Michael Finke | So. | 6'10, 230 | 49 | 17 | 107 | No | |||||||||||
|
Stretch four with career 52/37/64 shooting splits. Good offensive rebounder. First matchup: 12 mins, 10 pts (2/2 2p, 2/2 3p), 3 reb (1 off) | |||||||||||||||||||
| G | 3 | Te'Jon Lucas | Fr. | 6'0, 170 | 23 | 19 | 98 | Not Really | |||||||||||
|
Pass-first slasher getting larger role lately. First matchup: 23 mins, 5 pts (1/1 2p, 1/1 3p), 1 reb, 8 ast, 1 to, 1 stl | |||||||||||||||||||
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]
THE THEM
The Michigan win hasn't launched Illinois into Big Ten contention. In their two games since, they lost by six at home to Maryland and were blown out at Purdue. They're tied with Michigan at 2-4 in the conference standings.
The first game's preview has much of the necessary detail on Illinois's lineup. They've made a couple changes to the rotation since the Michigan game. Center Maverick Morgan moved into the starting lineup over Mike Thorne in the first matchup and hasn't left it since. After the two played a relatively even split to start the season, Morgan has taken a 61% share of the minutes in conference play and thrived, while Thorne has struggled in his increasingly limited time on the court.
Two freshmen who had excellent games against Michigan, point guard Te'Jon Lucas and forward Kipper Nichols, have moved past a pair of seniors—Thorne and Jaylon Tate—in the rotation. Lucas is a pass-first slasher who's cut down on his turnover issues while still posting a sky-high assist rate; he finishes well around the rim and is good for one or two steals a game. Nichols is 0-for-6 from the field with two offensive boards in 29 minutes since his breakout game against the Wolverines. We'll see if John Groce tries to recapture the magic or goes with more extended minutes for Thorne and stretch four Michael Finke, who's been red-hot in Big Ten play.
THE TEMPO-FREE
I'm switching over to conference-only numbers. Brace yourselves. These are six-game samples for both teams.
This is a matchup of the two worst defenses in the conference. One would think Michigan's decided offensive advantage would push them past Illinois, which has failed to crack one point per possession in three of their six Big Ten games, but... well, the first game happened.
THE KEYS
Keep playing post defense. Michigan's post defense was leaps and bounds better against Wisconsin that it was in the first Illinois matchup. That can't become a one-game thing. If Wagner and Wilson are as locked in on defense as they were on Tuesday night, this will be an entirely different game.
Get Wilson involved. In the two games since DJ Wilson put up 19 points (7/10 2P, 1/2 3P) on the Illini, he's scored only 11—all in the Nebraska game—and has only attempted four shots inside the arc. Michigan's best games tend to coincide with efficient performances from Wilson, who'll have a considerable size advantage against most Illini lineups. Purdue crushed Illinois on the interior Tuesday, and while Michigan's interior duo isn't the caliber of Haas-Swanigan, they should be the focal point of the offense until the Illini prove they can stop them.
Box the **** out. If Kipper freakin' Nichols grabs five offensive rebounds again I'm going to lose my damn mind.
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Michigan by 6.
Illinois made 9-of-14 threes in the first matchup. They're 26-for-97 (27%) in their other five Big Ten games. Michigan can't get lit up from beyond the arc every game, right?
Right?
ELSEWHERE
WojBomb: Indiana's OG Anunoby is out for the season with a knee injury. Michigan plays the first of their two games against the Hoosiers on Thursday at Crisler.