Hoops Preview: Nebraska

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: Same.

THE US

To nobody's surprise, Michigan is no longer in the field in the Bracket Matrix, and the majority of the brackets that include them haven't been updated since the Illinois debacle.

Tomorrow's matchup with Nebraska looked a whole lot better a couple months ago, prior to M's defensive collapse and the Huskers' unexpectedly stong start in conference play. KenPom has Michigan as an eight-point favorite; their 76% chance to win is the highest projection for any game on the rest of the schedule—yes, even including M's trip to Rutgers. Both sides probably feel the line should be closer than that, even though Nebraska must deal with the loss of their best post player, Ed Morrow. The betting sites have yet to weigh in. [UPDATE: Michigan -8, just like KenPom. The Morrow injury probably played a big factor in that line.]

It's hard to overstate how much Michigan needs to win this game. Heading into the Kohl Center next week at 1-4 in the conference would be a nightmare scenario.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Nebraska got off to a surprising 3-0 start in Big Ten play with road wins at Indiana and Maryland. On Sudnay against Northwestern, they lost more than just a game when Ed Morrow, their starting center and best post player by some distance, went down with a foot injury that will keep him out indefinitely. The replacement options leave something to be desired:

Nebraska basketball coach Tim Miles is testing two candidates to fill the starting spot for Saturday’s game at Michigan that is vacant due to center Ed Morrow’s foot injury.

Miles isn’t saying who the two are, but evidence Thursday pointed strongly to center Jordy Tshimanga and wing Isaiah Roby. Both are true freshmen. Neither has started a game.

Inserting the 6'11, 275-pound Jordy Tshimanga into the lineup would allow starter Michael Jacobson, a good rebounder but iffy inside finisher, to play his natural power forward position. The issue is Tshimanga has been struggling mightily aside from offensive rebounding; he's shooting 34% from the field with a 20% turnover rate while committing over eight fouls per 40 minutes. Isaiah Roby, the wing option, provides more shot-blocking (oddly enough) and offensive production, but that is only relative: he's making 46% of his twos, is 1-for-10 on threes, and has an ugly 30% turnover rate. Regardless of which player replaces Morrow in the starting lineup, Jacobson will see a lot of time at the five.

While the frontcourt is in disarray, the backcourt poses a stiff test for Michigan's leaky perimeter defense. Sharpshooter Glynn Watson is averaging 21 points in Big Ten play; he's making 44% of his threes this season and he can also be a pest on defense. Oversized point guard Tai Webster is averaging 20 points, 4.5 boards, and 4.3 assists in conference play; he's at his best when he's going to the basket off the pick-and-roll—he's a solid finisher at the tin and draws a lot of fouls.

Wing Evan Taylor is presumably out there for his defense. He's got a decent steal rate and his offensive numbers are awful: 46/17/59 shooting splits with 19 assists and 18 turnovers. Just A Shooter™ type Jeriah Horne is the best bench option on a squad whose depth has been hurt by injury; while he's only shot 33% from downtown, he doesn't hesitate to hoist—he went 2-for-10 from beyond the arc in their overtime win over Iowa.

THE RESUME

The conference stuff has been covered. Nebraska has a rough nonconference season, going 6-6 with a 1-5 record against top-40 teams. While they've had a tough time hanging with elite squads, they've proven they can beat decent ones, with a win over #39 Dayton in addition to the victories at Indiana and Maryland. The Huskers do have one bad loss, falling at home by eight to Gardner Webb.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Four Factors explanation

Nebraska has awful season-long shooting numbers, but while their two-point shooting has remained bad in Big Ten play, their three-point shooting has perked up significantly; they're third in the conference at 42%. They've also been quite active on the offensive boards, though we'll see if that continues in Morrow's absence.

The defense relies on forcing turnovers to overcome some poor perimeter defense; opponents are shooting 39% from beyond the arc against the Huskers this season. They've been bad on the glass, though we haven't seen Michigan really even attempt to get second-chance buckets.

THE KEYS

Attack the inexperienced bigs. Moe Wagner is coming off perhaps his worst effort of the season, but Morrow's absence provides him and DJ Wilson a great opportunity to produce on offense—and, mercifully, takes away Nebraska's main post threat on the other end.

Contain Webster. Michigan should do whatever they can to keep Tai Webster, a good finisher who draws a lot of fouls off the dribble but an iffy perimeter shooter, outside the arc. That'll take a collective team effort, especially against the high screen, that we haven't seen for a while.

Play some defense. Any defense.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 8.

This is not the time to tempt the KenPom gods. I'll add that I'd have a hard time sticking with this line if Morrow weren't hurt.

ELSEWHERE

UMHoops preview.