Hoops Preview: Illinois

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: Tracy Abrams, who's still playing for Illinois, guarding a sophomore Tim Hardaway Jr. [Bryan Fuller/MGoBlog]

THE US

As mentioned in yesterday's Basketbullets, Michigan is already edging towards "must-win" territory in games like this if they want to make the tournament.

This may go into the feelingsball realm, but Michigan has to play with a sense of urgency—especially on defense, where M's effort level seems to directly correlate with their success—that will match that of their opponent. Illinois is in virtually the same position; both teams are 1-2 in the Big Ten and among the last four teams to make the Bracket Matrix field. The Illini desperately need this home win. The Wolverines desperately need their first true road win of the season.

Both KenPom (Illinois -1) and Bovada (Michigan -2) have this as a virtual toss-up. While I hate myself for typing this, the team that plays like they want it the most should be the one that maintains their tenuous grasp on a tourney spot for at least another few days.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

The photo caption doesn't contain a lie: sixth-year senior Tracy Abrams, who started against Michigan when Zack Novak and Stu Douglass were seniors, is still the starting point guard for Illinois after two years lost to injury. This requires an interlude.

THE INCOMPLETE LIST OF PLAYERS TRACY ABRAMS HAS PLAYED AGAINST IN COLLEGE

Zack Novak
Stu Douglass
Colton Christian
Draymond Green
Jared Sullinger
William Buford
John Shurna
Trevor Mbakwe
Tim Frazier
Matt Gatens
Robbie Hummel, of course

As Wolverine247's Zach Shaw pointed out, Michigan's Austin Davis was 12 years old when Abrams enrolled at Illinois. He committed to the Illini before President Obama took office. His first year in Champaign coincided with my first year at this here blog.

Omnes una manet nox.

THE THEM, CONTINUED, NOW THAT YOU'VE LOST THE WILL TO LIVE

Despite spending much of the last two years rehabbing from Achilles and ACL injuries, Abrams somehow learned how to shoot; after never cracking 28% from beyond the arc in his first three seasons, he's at 43% this season, and being more selective on his drives has helped him post a career-high 47% mark on two-pointers, too. While Abrams isn't much of a pure point guard—his turnover rate is slightly higher than his assist rate—he's still a far more efficient player than he's ever been:

"Where he's come from when I first met him until now — in terms of his understanding of the game, understanding of selflessness, putting your teammates in position to be successful, checking your ego at the door — it's like having an old man out there."

Alright, I'll move on before I literally die of old age.

Flanking Abrams in the backcourt are sophomore Jalen Coleman-Lands, a Just A Shooter™ type who's gone 7-for-15 from beyond the arc in Big Ten play after being mired in a season-long slump, and senior Malcolm Hill, arguably the best pure scorer in the conference.

Hill had a sophisticated midrange game as a freshman and has only expanded his repertoire; he's shooting a career-best 41% from beyond the arc and getting to the line more often than ever before. Hill is drawing 7.2(!) fouls per 40 minutes this season, 9.5(!!!) in his three conference games thus far, and he's a career 80% free-throw shooter. Despite his heavy usage, he rarely turns the ball over. Finding a way to slow him down is by far Michigan's top priority. That won't be easy; he's scored 20+ in each of his last four games.

Starting four Leron Black may stand at 6'7", but he's one of the best rebounders in the conference on both ends of the floor. He's a decent, not great, finisher at 51% on two-pointers, and augments his scoring with frequent trips to the free-throw line, where he shoots 80%.

Senior Mike Thorne and Maverick Morgan play a relatively even time-share at center. Thorne is the better finisher, albeit hampered by bad free-throw shooting, and superior rebounder on both ends, though he's a shockingly unproductive shot-blocker for such a huge guy. Morgan actually blocks shots and does a better job of capitalizing on his free-throw opportunities. While neither is particularly impressive, they both have imposing size.

THE RESUME

Illinois has managed to hold serve at home with the notable exception of an overtime loss to #135 Winthrop. They haven't beaten a team ranked higher than #45: Ohio State, their lone conference win thus far. Road losses at Maryland and Indiana were sandwiched around the win over the Buckeyes.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Small sample size caveats apply.

Four Factors explanation

The Illini are good at finishing inside the arc and excellent at getting to (and producing at) the line, though they've had to lean much more on the latter in Big Ten games. Everything else about their offense is around average with the exception of turnovers, which have been a problem for them.

The defense protects the glass and keeps opponents off the line but fails to force many turnovers or protect the rim. They've been absolutely lit up in Big Ten play, ranking dead last in defensive efficiency, two-point defense, and block rate while allowing opponents to make 40% of their threes on a high rate of attempts. Yes, Illinois has been worse on defense in conference games than Michigan.

THE KEYS

Force someone other than Hill to beat you. Malcolm Hill is a tough player to slow down because he can score in a variety of ways from a variety of spots. Whoever is tasked with guarding him—probably Zak Irvin—is going to have to navigate a lot of screens and off-ball movement in addition to playing strong on-ball defense. Michigan did a surprisingly good job of slowing Hill down in their lone matchup last season (11 points, 3-for-11 FG, 3 AST, 3 TO), so there's hope Irvin can get the job done.

Attack the basket. The only nominal shot-blocking threat for Illinois, Maverick Morgan, hasn't recorded more than two in any game this year. Michigan's guards have been noticeably fearful of attacking the basket against good rim protectors—John Beilein said after the PSU game that he regretted warning the team about Mike Watkins' shot-blocking prowess—but they shouldn't hesitate to go to the hoop tonight. This should be a good opportunity to run a lot of the offense through Moe Wagner, as well—the burly Illinois bigs may have trouble staying with him when he initiates offense from the perimeter. 

Win the game. Find a way, please.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Illinois by 1.

This should be a tight game, and in such games, it's hard to go against the team with by far the best scorer/shot creator. Hopefully at least one of M's guards heats up to offset Hill.

ELSEWHERE

UMHoops preview. Are we seriously not saying 'phrasing' anymore?