2017 Big Ten Hoops Week 2 Recap

Indiana’s De’Ron Davis and Wisconsin’s Ethan Happ [Darron Cummings – AP]

Two weeks into conference play, and each team has already suffered at least one loss. By splitting a pair of games on the road against Indiana and Purdue, Wisconsin is positioning themselves well for a run to the Big Ten title, but there’s a ton of basketball left to be played, of course. Minnesota and Nebraska are pleasant surprises thus far, while Indiana and Michigan have disappointed.

Onto the biggest storylines of the week:

Wisconsin goes 1-1 in the state of Indiana

It was pretty clear that these two games would go a long way in determining Wisconsin’s Big Ten hopes; the Badgers are probably the best team in the league and, after beating Indiana but losing to Purdue, they’re in the driver’s seat for the conference now that what are likely their two toughest games are over. As of right now, Kenpom predicts that both Wisconsin and Purdue will finish atop the league with 13-5 records; because the conference is too large an unwieldy these days, there won’t be a regular season rematch between the two teams.

Wisconsin leapt out to an early lead against Indiana at Assembly Hall with a 13-0 run; although Indiana eventually was able to take a brief lead in the second half, the Badger offense was running too effectively (1.23 PPP) for IU to keep up. Ethan Happ led Wisconsin in scoring with 19 points, but more importantly held Indiana big man Thomas Bryant to just 6 points on the night. Bronson Koenig hit all five of his three point attempts and UW went 10-20 from behind the arc in total. It was the third straight loss for Indiana (though to be fair, two of them came to excellent teams) – they rebounded nicely with a comfortable home win over Illinois to get their first conference win.

Against Purdue, Happ had another standout performance – the sophomore is arguably the best player in the conference (and played across from the other candidate, sophomore big man Caleb Swanigan, in that game) and scored 17 points. Happ also added six steals – as a 6’10 center – and had four assists in both games. Unfortunately for Wisconsin, his teammates were largely held in check and they combined for just two three-point makes on the game. Swanigan also played well: 18 points and 13 rebounds made for a great double-double but he did turn the ball over 8 times as well. Fellow big man Isaac Haas, who now comes off the bench, chipped in 13 points for the Boilermakers.

There’s a four-way tie for first place in the conference right now but Wisconsin is favored in each remaining game, per Kenpom, and has less than a 60% chance of winning just two of those games.

[More on the week that was after the JUMP]

Freshmen point guards make an impact

It’s been a tough adjustment to the college level for Michigan PG Xavier Simpson, who was a highly touted prospect coming out of high school, but several of his freshman classmates are excelling at the position across the conference:

• Anthony Cowan, Maryland – Billed as the second coming of Melo Trimble, Cowan has posted the second-best free throw rate in the entire country despite being undersized. He’s posted 10.4 points and 3.8 assists per game.
• Cassius Winston, Michigan State – He gets less attention than the rest of his freshmen class at State, but Winston has posted an absurd assist rate of 55.3, the best mark in college basketball. He’s an exciting player even if his is scoring is hit-or-miss on a game-to-game basis.
• Jordan Bohannon, Iowa – Playing alongside a host of other youngsters, Bohannon has been mostly a three-point sniper for Iowa, hitting 36% on 92 attempts thus far this season. He’s also a solid distributor and runs the offense well.
• Tony Carr, Penn State – The most highly-regarded Penn State has landed in years, Carr pushed Shep Garner from PG to SG right away. He hasn’t been very efficient, but leads all Big Ten freshmen in minutes played by a wide margin.
• Carsen Edwards, Purdue – Since December, Edwards has been in the starting lineup for the Boilermakers and even though his offensive rating isn’t great, he added the dynamic driving and shot creating presence Purdue’s guards so sorely lacked last season.

Wisconsin’s D’Mitrik Trice and Northwestern’s Isiah Brown have been promising as reserves for their respective teams as well.

What’s wrong with the Buckeyes?

Through two weeks, there are two winless teams in the Big Ten: Rutgers isn’t much of a surprise, but Ohio State’s 0-3 mark is a little unexpected. Despite missing the NCAA Tournament last season, the Buckeyes were supposed to be better this year; nobody agreed with Kenpom’s preseason ranking of 13th nationally(!), but OSU had nearly everybody of consequence returning from 2015-16’s team. Now they’re winless in conference, had a bad loss to Florida Atlantic in non-conference play, and lost swingman Keita Bates-Diop to a season-ending injury.

None of the Buckeyes’ Big Ten losses are particularly bad on their own: they lost competitive road games against Illinois and Minnesota, and they dropped a heartbreaker at home against Purdue after sending Swanigan to the free throw line in the waning seconds to provide the winning margin. The loss to Illinois was the worst of the three, though it’s tough to be too critical of any road losses unless they come against truly awful teams. Still, the combination is rough – OSU gave up over a point per possession in all three losses and currently rank tenth in the league in defensive efficiency in conference games (despite being really good on that side of the floor in non-conference play). With a decided lack of offensive weapons, they’ll need to be better defensively.

At this point, it might be somewhat of a surprise if Ohio State is able to play its way back onto the bubble. Thad Matta’s enjoyed a ton of success in Columbus but, starting with three losses in the entirety of the 2010-11 season (in which the Buckeyes were the top overall seed in the tournament), they’ve seen decreasing win totals: 8, 8, 10, 11, and then 14 last year, the first time they missed the tournament since 2007-8. With six losses already, they might continue the trend. The talent just isn’t there anymore at Ohio State and while OSU probably will pull an upset or two, it’s hard to see them finishing in the top half of the league.

Chart of the Week

There are very few offenses as unique as Wisconsin’s. Its two starting guards – Bronson Koenig and Zak Showalter – have quite low assist rates, but its center, the tallest player on the team, has the best assist rate. Nigel Hayes, a strong isolation player who’s stepped up his game as a senior, is a solid passer and an ostensible point forward for the Badger offense.

The bubble that jumps off the chart is Ethan Happ. He’s a very interesting player: he’s in the top fifty of eFG%, OR%, DR%, and steal rate, and he’s the best passer on the team. His only weakness is his free throw shooting – and he only shoots the ball around the rim. Happ’s only a sophomore, so if his game continues to develop, he could be one of the best all-around players college hoops has seen in some time. Right now, he’s already an incredibly rare “point center” and he’s the offensive focal point of the Big Ten’s best team.

Coming up this week

All times Eastern.

Tuesday

• Indiana @ Maryland, 9:00, ESPN

Wednesday

• Minnesota @ Michigan State, 7:00, BTN
• Michigan at Illinois, 9:00, BTN

Thursday

• Ohio State at Wisconsin, 7:00, ESPN2
• Purdue at Iowa, 9:00, BTN
• Northwestern at Rutgers, 9:00, ESPNU

Saturday

• Minnesota at Penn State, 12:00, ESPNU
• Nebraska at Michigan, 2:00, BTN
• Maryland at Illinois, 6:00, ESPN2

Sunday

• Rutgers at Indiana, 12:00, BTN
• Michigan State at Ohio State, 1:30, CBS
• Iowa at Northwestern, 7:30, BTN