Hoops Preview: Maryland

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: Melo Trimble once again leads the Maryland attack. [Paul Sherman]

THE US

Dylan dug up an illuminating stat on Zak Irvin after Wednesday night's win over Penn State:

Are mid-range jumpers good shots? The analytically inclined will tell you no, but for Irvin they aren’t bad. According to numbers from Krossover, Irvin makes 47% of his off the dribble mid-range jumpers compared to just 18% of his off the dribble three-point attempts (he makes 42% of his threes off the catch).

As late-clock shots go, Irvin's pet midrange pull-up—especially when he's coming off a screen while going to his right—is a pretty efficient look. That three-point stat, however, is alarming, and it shows why Irvin's shooting from beyond the arc has declined so much from his freshman year: he's not nearly as good creating his own three-point look as he is taking spot-up threes.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Maryland is an odd team; they're very young (319th in experience, per KenPom) and yet they're siginifcantly better on the defensive end of the floor. They take a lot of threes and still commit a lot of turnovers. They're heavily free-throw reliant. They coughed up a 13-point second-half lead to Nebraska one game after running Illinois off the court.

The constant from last year is guard Melo Trimble, who remains the team's focal point. After struggling with his scoring efficiency last year, Trimble has rediscovered his shot; he's making 58% of his twos—an especially impessive mark given how tough some of his shots are at the rim—and 35% of his threes. He also draws an enormous number of fouls and makes 84% of his free throws. His weakness is still turnovers, but he's managed to keep his efficiency steady from last year while upping his usage to a sky-high 28%.

Freshman guard Anthony Cowan, who shares primary ballhandling duties, is essentially a shorter, lower-usage version of Trimble. His assist and turnover rates are near-identical, he's an effective slasher and average outside shooter, and he leads the country in free-throw rate. Yet another freshman, former Michigan target Kevin Huerter, has been a reliable outside gunner, making 38% of his threes, which account for two-thirds of his attempts.

Maryland's best outside shooter has been stretch four Justin Jackson, who's hitting 43% of his triples and makes up for below-average finishing inside the arc by drawing more than his fair share of fouls. He's a decent rebounder and shot-blocker, as well.

Starter Michal Cekovsky missed the first four games of the season as well as the last two with an ankle injury. In his stead, Maryland has rotated three bigs. Sophomore Ivan Bender has been easily the most effective offensive player of the trio, making 67% of his shots, but foul trouble and turnovers have limited his minutes. Senior Damonte Dodd, who has starting experience, has been limited by injury himself. When healthy, he's posted very impessive offensive rebound and block rates, but he's turning the ball over way too much to be a reliable option. Senior LG Gill grabs offensive rebounds and draws fouls, but he's only 11-for-36 from the field and provides little rim protection. If Cekovsky is available, he's their best option.

THE RESUME

Maryland has a trio of one-point wins over solid competition (#59 Georgetown, #30 Kansas State, #39 Oklahoma State) among some pretty uninspiring efforts against lesser squads; they only beat #314 American by six in the season opener and needed overtime to get past #123 Richmond. The Terps have managed to avoid bad losses, assuming Nebraska continues to ascend the rankings; their other loss came by 14 at home against #50 Pitt.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Four Factors explanation

As mentioned above, Maryland's offense relies on drawing fouls to make up for average shooting and turnover problems; 23.4% of their points come at the free-throw line, the 36th-highest mark in the country. When not taking the ball to the hoop in hopes of getting to the line, they're quite perimeter-oriented, though they're only average at making outside shots.

The only real weakness in Maryland's defense is on the boards, which isn't something Michigan has been able to exploit. Like Penn State, which did an excellent job of discouraging M's guards from even attempting to drive to the hoop, Maryland is a very good shot-blocking team, though they spread it more evenly across their lineup instead of leaning on one imposing paint presence like PSU does with Mike Watkins.

THE KEYS

Rediscover the outside shot. In their two conference games, Michigan has taken 43% of their field goals from beyond the arc; they're making 32% of them. That's an anomaly—the looks have generally been good and M is hitting 37% on the year—and one that can stop any time now, thanks. Given Maryland's shot-blocking prowess, Michigan is probably going to be very perimeter-oriented again in this game.

Capitalize on turnovers. For much of the PSU game, Michigan was slowing the pace and settling for halfcourt sets even when there were opportunities to get out in transition. They finally started getting easy fast break buckets late thanks to some solid pick-and-roll defense from Derrick Walton and Moe Wagner plus some increased willingness from Walton to push the pace. I'd like to see more of that; Maryland is another good defensive team but they'll allow some fast break opportinities off live-ball turnovers.

Make them finish. While the Terps get to the line a ton normally, they haven't managed that in Big Ten play, and Nebraska did an excellent job of not fouling and forcing Maryland's guards to finish their drives; the Terps went 12-for-40(!!!) on two-pointers and only attempted 16 free throws. Wagner and Wilson should be especially careful; Michigan needs them on the court and it's worth giving up a couple easy layups to keep them out of foul trouble.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 7.

Hopefully this is the game when the outside shots start falling again, otherwise this will be closer than the KenPom projection.

ELSEWHERE

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