The question:
So, next year’s offensive line/defensive line…any conce…why did you just run under the bed?
Seth: I ask this because I was playing with a depth chart for next year and I'm kind of more worried about DT than OT.
Ace: It’s an understandable concern, especially now that it looks more likely Michigan could whiff on Solomon/Tufele/Reitmaier. While I’m still more worried about the offensive line, the lack of depth after Mo Hurst and Bryan Mone—who hasn’t been able to stay healthy for anywhere close to a full season—is worrisome. A couple freshmen are going to get pressed into service early.
Seth: That's the thing: there aren't a lot of bullets in that chamber.
Ace: With the number of SDE/5-tech types Michigan is bringing in this class (Hudson, Jeter, Irving-Bey), I wouldn’t be surprised if Rashan Gary slides inside to help out with that.
In related news, it’d be really nice if Lawrence Marshall finally broke through.
Seth: I figure the starting four are locked: Gary at SDE (anchor), Hurst at DT, Mone at NT, Winovich at End. For passing downs they go with a 30 front, pulling Mone and having Gary and Hurst slide down. The top DL backup then is your backup anchor: Kemp, Reuben Jones, Marshall, whoever, who comes in for Gary when Gary is in for Hurst who may be in for Mone. But then Mone hasn't stayed healthy for a year yet. And if you lose any of them we're down to....Dwumfour?
[Aaron Bills]
Garrett Miller?
Paea?
Ace: Paea is the least college-ready of the incoming DTs; I still like him more at guard, to be honest. I think Dwumfour and Hudson are the best bets for those backup spots if Michigan can’t land Tufele. Practice reports from the Army Bowl have been pretty positive for Irving-Bey, as well, so perhaps he could get into the rotation.
Mone’s health is paramount, which is rather terrifying.
Seth: Yeah, none of those guys are likely going to be ready to play nose, and that would be a colossal waste of Hurst.
Ace: I don’t see many scenarios in which Hurst doesn’t see a fair amount of time at nose, unfortunately. He should be much better at it next year than he was in 2015, though.
Seth: The playbook has Hurst-style nose tricks, and I agree 305-pound senior Hurst >>> 275-pound sophomore Hurst. But when you put a guy with his skills over the center and leave him to doubles forever those glorious plays when he's in the backfield before the quarterback has pulled up his read buttons disappear.
Ace: You can still slide Gary inside on those snaps, insert one of the young guys at SDE, and have a pretty decent line out there, though.
[After the jump: we scrape the bottom of the snap stats for potential contributors, and then we do the OL.]
Seth: Super darkhorse candidate: Carl Myers, a preferred walk-on who turned down MAC offers and played against Hawaii (and was born the day I graduated high school). This concludes potential DTs on the roster.
Ace: That is the darkest of horses. I’d be shocked if walk-ons played over freshmen. These aren’t Glasgows.
Seth: Harbaugh's 2016 walk-ons aren't your normal walk-ons, though. I wouldn't peg any one non-Glasgow but there's enough interesting clay in that pile that I'd surprised if none of them end up contributors.
Adam: FWIW, Glasgow said Mattison likes to have a swing guy that can play both spots. He then said in the past it has typically been Hurst, though it ended up being Glasgow when fall camp broke last year because Hurst was dinged up and Mone was playing so well at nose. You have to be able to spell Mone, so I agree that we're going to see a fair amount of Hurst at nose.
Ace: Myers was listed at 268 pounds this year. While I don’t want to count out a kid, I’d be pretty damn concerned if he was in the rotation over James Hudson.
Seth: Oh that was just a major straw grasp.
Ace: Miller, for what it’s worth, was at 271, and he’s also an outgoing senior.
Seth: Yeah Miller's done. These guys were mentioned because we've literally reached the end of the list of players who got snaps this year. Unless Onwenu is the first 360-pound two-way player in history.
Ace: Let’s use that to transition to the O-line, because I’ve got Onwenu as pretty much a lock to start at guard. That almost certainly eliminates him from two-way contention outside of scattered situational snaps.
[Patrick Barron]
Seth: Mmmmm goal line grapes.
Adam: Where does Cole end up? Is Ruiz a plausible starting center or do you guys feel more comfortable leaving Cole there?
Ace: If anyone can step in and play center right away, it’s Ruiz, and the more I look at the potential OL combinations, the more I think that’s going to be necessary.
Seth: I'm strongly of the opinion that Cole should stay at center unless they're in a dire emergency at tackle.
Adam: I kinda feel like they're in a dire emergency at tackle.
Seth: I didn't say it was unlikely.
Ace: Even if you pencil in Grant Newsome at LT, which is not a certainty, it’s hard to figure out who takes the other tackle spot aside from Cole. Bushell-Beatty just didn’t look viable this year.
Seth: Nope.
Adam: Noooope.
Ace: So then you’re deciding whether you want your freshman starter at tackle (Filiaga, perhaps) or center (Ruiz).
Seth: Unconfirmed practice reports did say Ulizio is viable.
Ace: Ulizio didn’t play over JBB, so I’m skeptical, to say the least. I know he’s younger but that’s still concerning.
Seth: I don't find it that concerning. RS freshman Taylor Lewan couldn't get Mark Huyge out of the lineup.
Ace: Huyge was a senior starter, though, IIRC. JBB was… not that.
Seth: Not saying either player is of the caliber of those guys but I would call it normal for a lineman to need two years of college practice before his talent can translate to the field.
Ace: That’s fair, but that’s also the concern. The two redshirt sophomores are Ulizio and Jon Runyan Jr., a late flier and a three-star legacy, respectively. This is why I’m more concerned about the O-line than the D-line. We can at least quite easily project a starting DL. The OL is way, way tougher to even do that.
Adam: I'm cautiously optimistic about a Newsome-Bredeson-Ruiz-Onwenu-Cole line. My optimism has quite a few caveats, though: Newsome healing quickly, Bredeson taking a step forward, Ruiz being what the scouting reports say he is, and the epic Onwenu v. Gary Christmas Camp battles being epic due to the competitiveness and not just the whole jeez-those-two-humans-are-built-like-supervillains factor.
Ace: I can see that line being good. Like you said, though, there’s a lot that needs to fall into place. Everyone who’s had a chance to look at him seems really high on Andrew Stueber.
Seth: Spanellis is another bullet in the chamber. Anything on him evaporated with his injury this year but he's a 6'6/335 Harbaugh recruit who reportedly can convert oxygen and carbohydrates into energy.
Ace: Spanellis was reputed to be more of an inside guy and they’re in greater need of a young tackle to emerge. I think one of the freshman OTs would see the field before him. The other combination I think is a good possibility if things break right: Newsome-Kugler-Cole-Onwenu-Bredeson. I know it’s not a certainty that Kugler even comes back. But he’s their only shot at not having a totally inexperienced guy (or JBB) in the starting lineup.
Seth: My thing on Cole is you really want your most experienced lineman at center. Ruiz isn't your typical center—usually anybody strong enough to play line in D-I ends up at tackle in high school—but even IMG doesn't come close to matching 38 starts at Michigan. I think if you're going to get away with two young guys on an offensive line, you need a grandpa in the middle telling them what to do.
Ace: Yeah, I generally agree with that, even if Ruiz is ahead of his years at the position. That’s why I want Kugler back or for Michigan to hit the grad transfer market. Which I’m starting to think is more and more of a possibility on both lines as we have this discussion.
Seth: Kugler does have a bona fide start to his name. But I could see a Newsome-Ruiz-Cole-Onwenu-Bredeson line, with Ruiz in an understudy role before sliding to center in 2018.
Ace: That could work out. Ruiz is a hefty dude. Now, do we dare broach the potential combinations if Newsome isn’t healthy enough to play?
Seth: I think we have to.
Ace: Damn.
Adam: Bredeson-Ruiz-Cole-Onwenu-A Football Player?
Ace: Cole-Bredeson-Ruiz-Onwenu-Filiaga?
Adam: Getting Filiaga would be nice.
Ace: He’s freakin’ massive, which is helpful. He’d still be a bit of a project and probably not great in pass protection, though.
Seth: I think it was Sam (via Brian, while talking to Steve in a podcast) who said there are two guys in high school who could play Power 5 tackle next year, and that's Leatherwood and Filiaga.
Ace: I really hope he’s right on that.
Adam: Cole-Kugler-Ruiz-Onwenu-Bredeson is another possibility if they don't get Filiaga.
Seth: They do have Asiasi and Wheatley around. Borges showed us how not to do it by having A.J. Williams line up as an all-time blocker (next to Lewan!!) but the concept of playing a blocky-first/catchy-some guy next to a right tackle who's more guard-like is as old as football. It's not ideal, but Wilton Speight's pocket presence could mitigate that enough to get away with it for a year.
Ace: Heck, based on the bowl game, that might be a good thing.
(It’s not a good thing.)
Seth: Yeah if Speight needs to get punched in the chest some to unlock Good Speight it should be administered in a controlled environment by Dr. Harbaugh.
Ace:
/giphy dr harbaugh
Was hoping the actual Dr. Harbaugh GIF would show up but that one’s probably more appropriate for this discussion.
Seth: Please I don't ever want to see my doctor reacting that way.
Ace: So, yeah, the D-line depth worries me, but pretty much everything about the O-line worries me. (Except Onwenu. Grapes of Wrath forever.) And it’s much easier to patch up depth issues with freshmen on the D-line than the O-line.
Adam: Yeah, that's where I'm at. Slide some guys around and the D-line will be fine. Slide guys around, hope one gets healthy and one comes back, maybe grab a big recruit, then hope the ones you did land play ahead of their years and you'll field an O-line.
Ace:
