[Dylan Buell – Getty]
Note: last night’s Indiana-Wisconsin game happened after most of this post had already been written and technically happened in the second week of Big Ten play, so it will be discussed next week.
The first week of Big Ten play had plenty of surprises: atop the league are Nebraska(!) and Michigan State – two teams that struggled in non-conference play. Indiana and Purdue each suffered surprising home losses in hard-fought contests (against Nebraska and Minnesota, respectively). Maryland finally lost a close game after allowing the Huskers to rip off a game-ending 14-0 win to steal a win in College Park. It was certainly an intriguing start for a conference that has the parity necessary for a competitive and exciting season.
For the week’s biggest storylines:
Nebraska’s backcourt keys two huge upsets
Based of off Kenpom’s initial win probability numbers for each game, Nebraska only had a 2.2% chance of notching road wins over Indiana and Maryland, but they managed to do it, signaling that perhaps their NCAA Tournament hopes aren’t dead just yet. The Husker guards – Tai Webster and Glynn Watson – were huge in both games. Against the Hoosiers, the two combined for 47 points (on 39 shot equivalents), 9 steals, and 6 assists, leading NU to an impressive 1.21 points per possession in the 87-83 win. While those two weren’t the entire story for Nebraska – Ed Morrow had six offensive boards, including two key putbacks near the end of the game, and little-used freshman reserve Jeriah Horne scored in double digits – the stellar play of the Husker guards was what delivered the upset.
Against Maryland, Watson and Webster were excellent again, combining for 35 points (on a less efficient 33 shot equivalents), 7 assists, and 5 steals. Michael Jacobson and Morrow, to a lesser extent, were quite active on the offensive glass, which generated extra possessions for the Husker guards. Still, the defense was the major story for Nebraska: with six minutes left, the Terps made a free throw to extend their lead to 67-65, but were held scoreless on the rest of their possessions – missed three, missed two, turnover, missed two, missed two, missed two, missed two, missed three, turnover, turnover, missed three, missed two. Several of those missed twos were layups that were contested well enough at the rim to force misses. There might not be a more impressive comeback in the rest of Big Ten play – after the lead was extended to 12, Maryland had a 98.7% chance of winning, per Kenpom.
Nebraska now has two pretty manageable home games this week (against Iowa and Northwestern), so they could keep winning. Most of their non-conference losses did come to quality teams – except for Gardner Webb, but that looks like an aberration now – and they did get some wins in two of their tougher games already (though Maryland’s non-conference luck may overly influence the perception of how good the Terps are). An NCAA Tournament appearance might be too tough a task, as the Huskers would probably need to go 12-6 in the conference, or so, and they won’t be getting great performances from both Webster and Watson every night. Still, Nebraska’s looking like a much tougher out than they were a week ago, and they could rack up a few more big wins over the coming months.
[More on the week that was after the JUMP]
Minnesota splits a pair of overtime games
The Gophers have certainly been a surprise this year. An influx of talent – shot-blocking transfer Reggie Lynch and freshmen Amir Coffey and Eric Curry have been especially impactful – has lifted the Gophers up from near the bottom of the league to somewhere in the middle. It remains to be seen whether Richard Pitino can get the most out of the Gophers, but if the first week is any indication, they’ll have plenty of competitive games in Big Ten play.
In the league opener, Minnesota opened up a 14-point second half lead over Michigan State, but shot poorly enough down the stretch that the Spartans were able to get back into the game and force overtime despite a horrible first half offensively. Former Gopher commit Alvin Ellis played his best game as a Spartan and was able to hit threes and create his own shot, something the senior hadn’t previously been able to do in his career in East Lansing. Dupree McBrayer free throws gave Minnesota a one-point lead with thirty seconds left, but a dubious foul call late in the shot clock put Ellis to the line and he hit two free throws – a poor possession and missed jumper from Nate Mason sealed the tough home loss.
They made up for it on the road against Purdue on Sunday. Minnesota raced out to an atypically hot start, hitting their first seven shots and led 19-6 early in the contest. Eventually Purdue was able to cut into that lead as the Gophers cooled off; Caleb Swanigan’s continuing dominance was a big factor in that, as the Purdue sophomore tallied 28 points and 22 rebounds on the day (and a 20-20 game wasn’t unprecedented for him). Still, Minnesota hung in there and led 73-71 with three minutes left. Both teams went scoreless for a long stretch before a last-second Swanigan shot sent the game to overtime. The Gophers caught fire again in the extra period, scoring 18 points in five minutes and winning rather comfortably in the end, 91-82. Nate Mason was the hero for Minnesota, scoring 31 points on just 23 shot equivalents, posting 11 assists to just 1 turnover, and adding in 6 rebounds.
Most mock brackets have the Gophers solidly in the field of 68 as of now, and while there’s still a ton of basketball left, Minnesota could be going back to the tournament after a three-year absence.
Nick Ward emerges in Miles Bridges’s absence
Even though Michigan State currently sits at 2-0 and tied for the Big Ten lead, it’s been a somewhat disappointing season for the Spartans, particularly due to the poor play of some of their veterans. Still, their outstanding freshman class has mostly been as good as advertised: Miles Bridges looked like a lottery pick before his injury, despite some inefficiency, Cassius Winston leads the country in assist rate, and Nick Ward has emerged into a legitimate force for State despite playing just under half of the available minutes. After Bridges was hurt against Duke, Tom Izzo desperately needed a new offensive focal point and found one in the freshman he compared to former Spartan Zach Randolph.
Despite not having Bridges for month, Michigan State mostly kept their heads above water, though the upset loss to Northeastern could be problematic come March. Here are Ward’s stats in games where Bridges didn’t play:
Ward fouls too much, he’s a poor free throw shooter, and he’s still shedding bad weight, but he’s been extremely effective regardless and should mature into a force over the course of his career. He has terrific body control and touch around the rim, and his size carves out a ton of space on post-ups. Ward still has some issues with double teams, but should find that there’s more room to operate when Bridges returns (which should be soon). MSU is 2-0 in the conference and is supposed to be getting their best player back; Ward’s play over the month of December – and into January – provides a strong argument that he’s actually a better college player than Bridges. Unsurprisingly, the Spartans could finish the season as a very strong team as the freshmen continue to grow into prominent roles.
Chart of the Week
This is a little bit different than the standard efficiency plot: even though the teams have played opponents of differing levels of quality (for example, Rutgers has had a way easier schedule than Michigan State), visualizing how well teams are shooting and how good their shot defense is can be useful, as it’s obviously the most important of the four factors.
The three teams furthest to the bottom right – good offense, good defense – are who you’d expect: Indiana, Purdue, and Wisconsin. Ohio State and Michigan State unexpectedly show up in that quadrant; the Buckeyes still have an above-average eFG% despite poor outside shooting and the Spartans have solid rim protection despite injuries decimating their frontcourt.
Rutgers and Minnesota may have benefitted from soft schedules thus far, but they have two of the lowest eFG% defense numbers in the entire country and should be at least above average on that end of the floor. Minnesota manages to cobble together enough offense to make them a solid NCAA Tournament candidate, while Rutgers does not. Northwestern’s shot-blocking is definitely atypical of a Wildcat team and probably is their biggest strength.
Look at how much of an outlier Nebraska is – the Huskers may be atop the league as of right now, but that seems unlikely to continue given their shooting and shot defense numbers.
Michigan has the worst eFG% defense in the conference right now. Evidently the defense hasn’t improved that much (though it has improved some).
Coming up this week
All times Eastern.
Tuesday
- Wisconsin 75, Indiana 68
Wednesday
- Rutgers at Michigan State, 6:30, BTN
- Penn State at Michigan, 8:30, BTN
Thursday
- Purdue at Ohio State, 7:00, ESPN
- Iowa at Nebraska, 9:00, BTN
- Minnesota at Northwestern, 9:00, ESPNU
Saturday
- Michigan State at Penn State, 1:00, ESPN
- Maryland at Michigan, 3:15, ESPN2
- Illinois at Indiana, 5:00, ESPNU
Sunday
- Northwestern at Nebraska, 2:15, BTN
- Rutgers at Iowa, 4:30, BTN
- Wisconsin at Purdue, 4:30, CBS
- Ohio State at Minnesota, 7:30, BTN