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THE ESSENTIALS
THE ESSENTIALS| WHAT |
Michigan (10-3, 0-0 B1G) vs Iowa (8-6, 0-1) |
|---|---|
| WHERE |
Carver-Hawkeye Arena Iowa City, Iowa |
| WHEN | 2:21 pm ET, Sunday |
| LINE | Michigan -2 (KenPom) |
| TV |
BTN PBP: Brian Anderson Analyst: Jon Crispin |
THE US
Michigan is one of only two Big Ten teams (Ohio State) yet to play a conference game. I don't expect any changes to the rotation. Even if John Beilein wants to get Duncan Robinson more playing time than the struggling Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman, bringing Robinson off the bench—which allows Beilein to pick his matchup—appears to be his preference.
THE LINEUP CARD
Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.
| Pos. | # | Name | Yr. | Ht./Wt. | %Min | %Poss | ORtg | SIBMIHHAT | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 3 | Jordan Bohannon | Fr. | 6'0, 182 | 65 | 20 | 97 | No | |||||||||||
| High assists and turnover rates, solid outside shooter, really struggling to finish inside arc. | |||||||||||||||||||
| G | 4 | Isaiah Moss | R-Fr. | 6'5, 205 | 41 | 19 | 101 | No | |||||||||||
| Efficient young scorer. Had 7+ points in six straight before Purdue blanked him. | |||||||||||||||||||
| G | 14 | Peter Jok | Sr. | 6'6, 205 | 71 | 30 | 117 | Not At All | |||||||||||
| B1G POTY candidate. Massive usage, great shooter, good finisher, draws fouls. | |||||||||||||||||||
| F | 0 | Ahmad Wagner | So. | 6'7, 235 | 44 | 17 | 103 | Very | |||||||||||
| Solid offensive rebounder, active defender, draws a lot of fouls. | |||||||||||||||||||
| F | 35 | Cordell Pemsl | Fr. | 6'8, 249 | 46 | 23 | 114 | Very | |||||||||||
| Shooting 73% from field with excellent rebounding and shot-blocking numbers. | |||||||||||||||||||
| F | 51 | Nicholas Baer | So. | 6'7, 200 | 53 | 16 | 121 | No | |||||||||||
| Good inside-outside scorer. Active rebounder and defender. | |||||||||||||||||||
| F | 25 | Dom Uhl | Jr. | 6'9, 217 | 42 | 19 | 89 | Yes | |||||||||||
| Stretch four having a brutal year: 39.5 eFG%, 24.5 TO%. | |||||||||||||||||||
| F | 5 | Tyler Cook | Fr. | 6'9, 253 | 31 | 25 | 101 | Yes | |||||||||||
| Promising freshman missed 7 games to injury, returned to go 6/10 against Purdue. | |||||||||||||||||||
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]
THE THEM
This game will be a contrast in styles. Michigan is one of the slowest-paced teams in the country; Iowa is one of the fastest, giving bench players 44% of their minutes (third in the country) to keep everyone fresh.
The Hawkeyes are led by scoring wing Peter Jok, who averages 21.9 points and 6.1 rebounds with the rare combination of sky-high usage and excellent efficiency. Jok is a 40% three-point shooter who's equally capable of putting the ball on the floor and getting to the hoop; he makes 48% of his twos, draws 5.7 fouls per 40 minutes, and hits 93% of his free throws. Jok is in the conversation for best player in the conference this season; slowing him down and at least forcing him to work in halfcourt sets is paramount.
A couple of freshmen, Jordan Bohannon and Isaiah Moss, join Jok in the starting backcourt. Bohannon fits the profile of a true freshman point guard; his high assist rate is offset by a high turnover rate and he's shooting better on threes (36%) than twos (24%). Moss is posting excellent 52/37/80 (2P%/3P%/FT%) shooting splits and his role has expanded over the last few weeks. He'd scored 61 points over his last six games before Purdue shut him out (0/4 FG, 2 TO) in the conference opener.
The rest of the rotation is a wide array of big-ish guys. Freshman Cordell Pemsl has been the best of the bunch, making 73% of his shots, drawing a ton of fouls, rebounding well, and blocking his share of shots as the starting center. Another freshman big man, Tyler Cook, returned from a seven-game injury absence to score 12 points on ten shots off the bench against Purdue; he's been an effective post scorer. Ahmad Wagner isn't nearly as much of a scoring threat but he does a lot of the dirty work. Nicholas Baer provides good scoring, rebounding, and shot-blocking off the bench. Reserve stretch four Dom Uhl has shown the capability of adding another scoring threat in the past but he's mired in an awful slump; he has more turnovers (21) than made field goals (20).
THE RESUME
Iowa got off to a terrible start this year, going 3-5 with all three wins coming against teams ranked in the 300s on KenPom. Defeats against #1 Virginia, #27 Notre Dame, #54 Seton Hall, and even #78 Memphis were at least somewhat understandable; not so much the home loss to #187 Nebraska Omaha. The Hawkeyes bounced back with five straight wins, highlighted by a 14-point home victory over #28 Iowa State, before dropping the B1G opener at Purdue by 22.
THE TEMPO-FREE
Iowa's defense has been solid inside the arc, holding opponents to 45.7% shooting on two-pointers with a low 28.8% free throw rate. They've otherwise struggled, however, giving up a lot of assisted buckets and offensive rebounds without forcing many turnovers. If Michigan moves the ball around, they should find open shots on the perimeter.
The offense is lightning-fast and lacks a glaring weakness, though there also isn't an overwhelming strength.
THE KEYS
Play your game. Michigan has to play in control. If the Wolverines get caught up in trying to match Iowa's tempo, this game probably won't go well. Turnovers aren't a major concern with this team, so the key will be shot selection; in general, the better the shot quality, the less likely a defensive rebound will lead to a fast break opportunity the other way.
Keep Jok out of the paint. Jok is an excellent shooter capable of making tough threes off the dribble. Iowa's offense is more dangerous, however, when Jok is getting to the basket and forcing defenses to collapse. I assume Zak Irvin will draw this assignment but it will take a team-wide effort to limit Jok's scoring.
Test the bigs. Iowa is pretty young up front and Moe Wagner's offensive repertoire seems to diversity by the game. Pemsl and Wagner both average more than five fouls per 40 minutes. Getting Wagner involved early with some pick-and-rolls, that unstoppable give-and-go set, and maybe a post touch or two could have the dual effect of producing points and getting Michigan a good way towards the bonus.
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Michigan by 2.
Conference road game are almost always tough and playing in Carver-Hawkeye is no exception. If Michigan can keep Iowa from getting out in transition too often, though, they have a decided advantage in the halfcourt, and that should be enough to eke out a win.