Hoops Preview: UCLA

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: UCLA freshman Lonzo Ball can and will score from just about anywhere on the court.

THE US

While pulling out a last-minute win against Texas on Tuesday night provided a nice morale boost, it may not do a whole lot for Michigan's tournament resume. The Longhorns, at 4-4, are currently the only Big 12 team without a winning record, and KenPom projects them to finish last in the conference.

A victory at UCLA, on the other hand, would almost assuredly hold up as a signature win. This is Michigan's last chance to tally one more of those in non-conference play; they finish out with Central Arkansas, Maryland Eastern Shore, and Furman before tipping off Big Ten play on New Year's Day at Iowa.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

This is easily Michigan's toughest game thus far. UCLA is undefeated, playing at home, and a week removed from their last game—a 97-92 upset at Kentucky. The Bruins boast the country's third-most efficient offense while playing at the tenth-highest tempo. They're first in eFG% with a mark that would rank inside the top 100 for individual players. Think about that for a moment.

UCLA is led by 6'6" freshman point guard Lonzo Ball, the eldest of three brothers set to Steph Curry-ize the program. Ball is a lights-out shooter with nearly unlimited range, which is evident even in the video breakdown from a relative down game against Kentucky:

Even when Ball isn't at the top of his game, he bends defenses in a way few players can, which opens up the floor for the rest of UCLA's marksmen. He knows how to find them, too: his 36.6% assist rate is 39th in the country. Michigan's best hope for a win is Ball having one of his high-turnover games; he's had five or more in three games this season, including six- and five-turnover outings against their two toughest opponents, Kentucky and Texas A&M.

Ball is so tough to slow down in part because he's surrounded by other great shooters. Starters Bryce Alford, Isaac Hamilton, and TJ Leaf (whom you may remember as a former Michigan recruit) are all shooting better than 40% from beyond the arc, and sixth man Aaron Holiday is at a team-high 53%. All four are effective scorers inside the arc, as well, and Leaf adds strong rebounding and shot-blocking.

It seem unfair, given the rest of this, that the Bruins have a legit seven-footer at center who excels at big-man stuff: junior Thomas Welsh is 20th in defensive rebound rate and 80th in block rate, he makes 57% of his twos, and while he doesn't get to the line often, he's perfect on 14 attempts from the stripe.

Holiday is the only bench player to see significant time. Backup bigs and spellcheck confouders Gyorgy Goloman and Ike Anigbogu spell Welsh on occasion. The bigger Anigbogu's role has grown substantially after he sat out the first five games; he played 17 minutes at Kentucky, going 3-for-4 from the field with four offensive boards, two blocks, two turnovers—and five fouls. While he's been effective, he can't stay on the floor for long; he's committing 11.6 fouls per 40 minutes.

THE RESUME

The Bruins began the season with four easy home wins before playing in what can only be generously be called a neutral-site tournament, the Wooden Classic at Cal State Fullerton, where they handled #156 Portland and #83 Nebraska with relative ease before a hard-fought 74-67 win over Texas A&M in the final game. They returned home for a blowout of UC Riverside before last week's upset at Kentucky, which still sits at #4 in KenPom's rankings after the loss.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Small sample size caveats apply.

Four Factors explanation

So, yeah, UCLA's shooting is literally off the charts. They're second in the country in both two-point and three-point percentage. They make 75.6% of their free throws. They have the tenth-lowest percentage of their shots blocked. They're top-50 in turnover rate. They do all this at ludicrous speed. Offensive rebounding and free throw rate are relative weaknesses; this still adds up to the #3 offense in the country.

While less impressive than the offense, they also boast a half-decent defense, one that stiffens in the paint. Opponents connect on only 41.9% of two-pointers and UCLA's 14.6% block rate ranks 30th nationally. The Bruins don't force many turnovers and opponents get some decent looks from three-point range; otherwise, they're a solid defensive squad. 

THE KEYS

Control the pace as best you can. Michigan isn't going to keep UCLA out of transition entirely, but there's precedent for slowing them down: Nebraska and Texas A&M held them to 69- and 70-possession games, respectively, and the Aggies held the Bruins to 1.06 points per possession. Both of those teams took very good care of the ball, something Michigan should be able to do against a UCLA defense that doesn't force many turnovers. This is a game where the Wolverines should eschew crashing the glass in favor of getting back on defense; they're in trouble if they let UCLA get good early-clock looks.

Don't get beat. UCLA is going to get their fair share of three-point looks. Michigan can't let too many of those come off drive-and-kick plays in which one of UCLA's guards beats his man and forces the defense to rotate and leave someone open. Perimeter defense has generally been decent of late but there have been some ugly moments, particularly in the Virginia Tech game. M can't afford similar lapses against one of the most productive offenses in the country.

Shoot the lights out. An obvious point but also Michigan's best chance. I wouldn't be surprised if MAAR cedes a lot of minutes to Duncan Robinson in this game as John Beilein decides to get more size and shooting on the floor—he mentioned after the Texas game that he expects to field more lineups with Irvin at the two, Robinson at the three, and Wilson at the four.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

UCLA by 7.

Those shooting numbers are freakin' terrifying.

ELSEWHERE

UMHoops preview. Quinn on the unlikely convergence of DJ Wilson and TJ Leaf.