M's best post defender? It's, uh, in the eye of the beholder. [Marc-Gregor Campredon]
After Wednesday night's Virginia Tech game, I sat in on John Beilein's postgame presser, attempting to fill out my game recap by transcribing quotes as Beilein talked. I stopped dead, however, at this quote, because I had just watched the same game and came away with a very different take:
“Scoring points wasn’t as big as trying to stop them. Right now, Mark [Donnal]’s a better defender. In defense of Moe [Wagner], Moe’s been sick all day, didn’t feel good. He was doing alright taking the ball to the basket."
What follows is a more thorough examination of Michigan's post defense against Virginia Tech than is necessary or easily digestible, but I spent an entire day compiling these numbers and video clips, so you will read this and like it*, dammit.
*you will probably not like it, sorry.
I began by looking at the points per possession numbers on both ends of the court with each center on the floor. The results:
MOE WAGNER:
OFFENSE TOTAL: 28 poss, 30 pts (1.07 PPP)
DEFENSE TOTAL: 27 poss, 29 pts (1.07 PPP)
MARK DONNAL:
OFFENSE TOTAL: 28 poss, 33 pts (1.18 PPP)
DEFENSE TOTAL: 27 poss, 36 pts (1.33 PPP)
JON TESKE:
OFFENSE TOTAL: 7 poss, 7 pts (1.00 PPP)
DEFENSE TOTAL: 7 poss, 6 pts (0.86 PPP)
DJ Wilson had two defensive possessions at center: a post stop and two free throws allowed after one of his fouls going for an offensive rebound.
While small sample size caveats abound, this matched the eye test both from this game and this season. The defensive numbers stood up to further scrutiny; the offensive numbers, which surprised me, did not. Non-Donnal Wolverines shot 6-for-13 on three-pointers when he was on the floor; Donnal added a three-point miss himself and didn't assist any of the six makes. Michigan made only 3-of-10 threes when Wagner was out there, and he assisted one of the makes. There wasn't a difference in the quality of the attempts; if M had shot 30% from three with Donnal on the floor like they did with Wagner, Donnal's offensive PPP in this game would've been 0.96.
[Hit THE JUMP for video and analysis, if you dare.]
I went back over the game and clipped every relevant defensive possession for Donnal and Wagner. Neither did very well on that end, but I thought Wagner had a clear edge. Here's Donnal:
Here's Wagner:
Yuck. Some takeaways:
There's a big difference in volume. The videos are somewhat misleading because they don't show the possessions where the ball didn't make it into the post. Wagner did a much better job of denying post position and keeping the ball out of the paint, and VT didn't appear too interested in attacking him down low. In stark contrast, Donnal spent much of his evening trying to fend off post possessions, and the Hokies went after him again and again when he was on the court.
The clip at 1:11 of Donnal's video, when he commits a shooting foul after allowing a baseline drive, came on his one-possession cameo in the second half when Beilein pulled Wagner to make a coaching point. VT immediately cleared out, keeping four players outside the arc, and posted up Donnal. This was a running theme when he checked into the game.
Both struggle on the perimeter. Donnal is simply slow-footed, so when he gets switched onto a non-big he's usually dead in the water. Wagner is more capable of sticking with guards, but he occasionally gets caught out of position. Wagner at least had one nice play when he switched onto a guard off a screen and stripped the ball away for a steal (1:17 mark).
Wagner is much better at maintaining rebounding position. The play with this screencap wasn't even included in Donnal's video because the VT shot went in, but on more than one occasion he got completely boxed out by the man he was supposed to be defending:
This also happens in the clip that starts at 0:46 but Derrick Walton bails him out. The very next clip is a VT and-one when Donnal loses his boxout position, gives up the rebound, and then doesn't foul nearly hard enough to prevent the putback.
Both need more help. I thought Wagner played an excellent possession on the clip starting at 0:55. He helps prevent a drive off a high screen, deflects a pass, and then makes a layup all but impossible when VT resets and runs another pick-and-roll. Wagner has to commit to the driver and leave the center; Duncan Robinson doesn't recognize this, hangs out in no-man's land, and doesn't rotate to prevent the pass to the center, who gets a free dunk.
In a similar vein, Donnal fronts his man on the possession at the 1:34 mark, and while I don't think he was correct in staying in that position once the ball goes to the wing, it doesn't help at all that Zak Irvin lets his man blow by him in an instant. Donnal should be in better position to help, but he doesn't get much time to get into that position because of M's perimeter defense.
What about Jon Teske? This was the best defensive possession by a Michigan center all night, and it came from the freshman ent:
His size is a major asset and he seems to be figuring things out quickly. As I'm writing up this post, Beilein is holding a presser, and I think he's seeing the same thing:
Beilein on Teske: He can really shoot the ball. We have to really find minutes for him. Picks things up really quickly.
— Brandon Carney (@br_carney) December 2, 2016
I want to bet that Teske passes Donnal before the season is out but I've mostly given up on figuring out why Beilein handles his big men the way he does. At least he softened his stance on Wagner's defense this afternoon:
Beilein says the gab between Wagner's offensive abilities and defensive liabilities is closing. "It's a good sign. I'm certain of that."
— Brandon Carney (@br_carney) December 2, 2016
I'd like to see Wagner get a longer leash. Beilein essentially ceded two points to VT by pulling Wagner for a possession to make a coaching point; while those are important, I'm not sure they have to be made the instant an issue arises during a game, especially if said game is close. I don't agree with Beilein that Donnal is the superior defender—quite the opposite, in fact—and Wagner is far and away the better option on the other end of the floor.
I'd also be pleased if Teske starts eating into Donnal's minutes. It's too early to be as definitive in this statement—Beilein has seen much, much more of Teske than any of us—but what he's shown so far has been quite promising. Teske has a nice shooting stroke with range that at least allows him to have a reliable midrange game. He looks like he could make a huge impact on the offensive glass. He batted around a rebound chance that ended up going out of bounds off VT to salvage an unlikely second chance in his first-half stint. He was credited with an offensive board when he successfully boxed out VT's center...
...and drew an obvious foul as a result. He's still figuring out the system on both ends, but when it clicks—and that seems to be happening ahead of schedule—he's going to be a real asset in a way I don't think Donnal is capable.