THE ESSENTIALS
| WHAT |
#25 Michigan (5-1) vs #35 Virginia Tech (5-1) |
|---|---|
| WHERE |
Crisler Center Ann Arbor, Michigan |
| WHEN | 7 pm ET, Wednesday |
| LINE | Michigan -5 (KenPom) |
| TV |
ESPN2 PBP: Jason Benetti Analyst: Sean Farnham |
Right: Star sixth man Zach LeDay plays much bigger than his listed 6'7". [Photo: Alex Brandon/AP]
THE US
Michigan bounced back from the ugly loss at South Carolina by jumping out to a 17-point halftime lead against Mount Saint Mary's on Saturday evening and cruising to the finish in an online-stream-only game watched by dozens. I was in a car on the way back from Ohio during that game, so I have little to add other than noting Moe Wagner hit 3-of-5 three-pointers.
This game is part of the ACC/B1G Challenge, which is tied up at four through eight games. The other games on tonight's schedule with KenPom lines:
Purdue at Louisville, 7 p.m., ESPN (Louisville -7)
Rutgers at Miami, 7 p.m., ESPNU (Miami -15)
North Carolina at Indiana, 9 p.m., ESPN (UNC -3)
Ohio State at Virginia, 9 p.m., ESPN2 (Virginia -10)
Nebraska at Clemson, 9 p.m., ESPNU (Clemson -9)
As you can see, it'd take a few upsets for the Big Ten to win their third straight Challenge.
THE LINEUP CARD
Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.
| Pos. | # | Name | Yr. | Ht./Wt. | %Min | %Poss | SIBMIHHAT | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 5 | Justin Robinson | So. | 6'1, 185 | 78 | 22 | No | ||||||||||||
| Pass-first PG with high assist and turnover rates. Decent outside shooter. | |||||||||||||||||||
| G | 13 | Ahmed Hill | RJr. | 6'5, 205 | 74 | 18 | Not At All | ||||||||||||
| Just A Shooter™, 20-for-42 on triples this season. | |||||||||||||||||||
| G | 10 | Justin Bibbs | Jr. | 6'5, 220 | 70 | 15 | Not At All | ||||||||||||
| Low-volume, high-efficiency scorer, especially from beyond the arc. | |||||||||||||||||||
| F | 15 | Chris Clarke | So. | 6'6, 210 | 67 | 18 | Yes | ||||||||||||
| Good interior scorer, passer, and defensive rebounder. | |||||||||||||||||||
| C | 2 | Khadim Sy | Fr. | 6'10, 240 | 34 | 19 | Very | ||||||||||||
| Starter playing backup minutes. Great rebounding and shot-blocking numbers. Foul prone. | |||||||||||||||||||
| F | 32 | Zach LeDay | RSr. | 6'7, 235 | 75 | 26 | Yes | ||||||||||||
| Plays majority of C minutes. Good rebounder and inside scorer, draws lots of fouls. | |||||||||||||||||||
| G | 4 | Seth Allen | RSr. | 6'1, 190 | 60 | 23 | Kinda | ||||||||||||
| Turnover-prone backup PG, decent finisher, iffy outside shooter off to hot start. | |||||||||||||||||||
| F | 42 | Ty Outlaw | RJr. | 6'6, 220 | 28 | 18 | No | ||||||||||||
| JuCo transfer stretch four is 7-for-15 on threes, 0-for-5 on twos. | |||||||||||||||||||
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]
THE THEM
The Hokies lineup is rather odd in that they bring their leading scorer, rebounder, and shot-blocker, 6'7" big man Zach LeDay, off the bench. While LeDay is the sixth man, he plays the second-most minutes on the team, and he'll be a tough cover for Michigan's centers. LeDay is shooting 58% inside the arc and he can score in a variety of ways; he draws six fouls per 40 minutes. Khadim Sy, the starter at center, has better rebounding and shot-blocking rates, but isn't as skilled a player.
After slowing LeDay, the key for Michigan will be limiting the outside opportunities for a couple sharpshooters, wings Ahmed Hill and Justin Bibbs, who are a combined 31-for-67 on three-pointers this season. Neither player does a whole lot other than take outside shots, but they're quite good at those.
Sophomore point guard Justin Robinson is also a decent three-point shooter (36% career), and unlike his backcourt counterparts he consistently attacks the basket—he's a career 45% two-point shooter, gets to the line with frequency, and makes 74% of his freebies. Robinson is a true point—he leads the team with 32 assists—but he's prone to coughing the ball up; his 15 turnovers are tied for a team-high, too.
Starting four Chris Clarke gives VT another solid interior player. He's mad 67% of his twos this season, gets to the line often, and leads the team in defensive rebounding rate. He's backed up by Ty Outlaw, a prolific scorer in JuCo who's still finding his way in D-I ball; he's 7-for-15 from three in his first year on the court for VT, but he's 0-for-5 from two and commits over six fouls per 40 minutes.
The other backup of note is guard Seth Allen, an efficient all-around scorer who's not great at the point guard stuff he's asked to handle; his 15 turnovers almost entirely cancel out his 18 assists.
THE RESUME
VT started the season with three blowout wins in body-bag home games before going 2-1 against three KenPom top-100 opponents in the Wooden Legacy tournament. The Hokies sandwiched comfortable victories over #92 New Mexico and #77 Nebraska around a three-point loss to #33 Texas A&M, a game in which they blew a 17-point second-half lead.
THE TEMPO-FREE
Small sample size caveats apply.
VT's offensive stats look fairly similar to that of a decent John Beilein squad. They're 23rd nationally in eFG% with good marks from both inside and outside the arc; despite issues at PG, they rarely turn the ball over as a team; they don't get many second chances, choosing instead to limit opponent transition opportunities.
Defensively, they're protecting the glass and keeping opponents off the foul line, which helps make up for a low turnover rate. Opponents are shooting just 30.5% from three-point range against the Hokies despite getting an above-average number of opportunities; that may be luck on VT's part.
THE KEYS
Stay home. I'm operating on the assumption that LeDay and Clarke are going to have some success on the interior. If that's the case, Michigan must make sure not to overreact and crash inside off of VT's outside gunners. The Hokies get over 34% of their points on threes, a top 100 mark in the country. Michigan can't abandon Hill and Bibbs to help inside or they're asking for trouble.
Force the ballhandler to make the play in the pick-and-roll. The key stat of the game, courtesy of UMHoops:
John Beilein mentioned Virginia Tech’s transition game and the Hokies do push the ball on 24% of their offensive possessions, but they are also a great pick and roll team. Virginia Tech scores 1.147 points per ball screen (including passes), good for the 98th percentile nationally according to Synergy.
LeDay is the main driver behind that efficiency. Robinson is good at dishing off LeDay's screens, but when keeping the ball it's draw a foul or bust:
The 6-foot-1 guard can really play in the ball screen game as well, but he’s more of a creator for others than a scorer. He rates in the 29th percentile for his own offense (2-of-7), but he has 18 pick-and-roll assists already this year per Synergy.
Force that guy to make a shot.
Get shots to fall. Incredibly obvious, I know, but a look at Michigan's stat page shows their shooting are lagging far behind expectations. Zak Irvin is hitting 29% of his threes; Duncan Robinson, 35%; MAAR, 23%. Derrick Walton and, oddly enough, the big men (Wagner and Donnal combined: 8-for-14) have been M's only consistent outside shooters. They need more.
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Michigan by 5.
M's size could give VT some problems. The Hokies were dominated on the interior by a bigger Texas A&M squad, shooting 34% and allowing 54% on twos. If M has a decent shooting game, the trio of Wagner, Donnal, and Wilson should give them the edge. Yes, that sentence still looks weird to me, too.