I have nothing of value to add.
Seriously. I've already shared
my thoughts on this game, but I don't have much in the way of substantive analysis. As I sit here trying to break down matchups and evaluating where either team has a definitive edge, I find myself
sounding like Vizzini, the Sicilian kidnapper in The Princess Bride. Michigan has the best defensive line in the country, so I clearly cannot take Ohio State. But Ohio State has better linebackers, so I clearly cannot take Michigan. But Michigan has Jourdan Lewis and Jabrill Peppers, so I clearly cannot take Ohio State. But Wilton Speight is not 100%, so I clearly cannot take Michigan.
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Me, thinking I know things
As I mutter these things incoherently, I can almost feel Cary Elwes smirking knowingly at me from across the table. It isn't that any particular piece of analysis is wrong. It's that it doesn't matter. This game is the culmination of two empires marching toward each other for weeks, and two mad geniuses planning, scheming, and preparing for this day for nine months. There's a good chance Jim Harbaugh ran at least one play against Hawaii solely in anticipation of the Ohio State game. I'd bet good money Urban Meyer installed a package in fall camp that he hasn't touched yet. Both coaches spent at least one sleepless summer night mentally scripting the first series. Don Brown... oh, god, the blitzes that Don Brown has been putting together for this game. There's one where Channing Stribling plays defensive end, Ryan Glasgow drops to play a deep third, and Mike McCray just runs screaming in circles. It is unstoppable.
We normal humans are unable to comprehend the levels involved here. Maybe 5% of the people reading this as good at anything as these guys are at coaching football. A select few can even understand what these titans of football industry are doing after they do it. Predicting such things ahead of time, especially under these circumstances is an exercise in futile hubris.
So instead, I sit here with whiskey in hand on Friday night pondering what these crazy bastards are going to do. It is anticipation whiskey. Saturday will bring anxiety whiskey, followed by either sorrow whiskey or exaltation whiskey. Fortunately, these various types of whiskey are contained in the same bottle. It is a versatile product. Sometimes I feel like I can deploy whiskey nearly as effectively as Jim Harbaugh can deploy a fullback. But I digress.
This game will be decided by forces us mere mortals can't grasp. This is the payoff of too many long games, plans, schemes, artifices, and misdirections to comprehend. So, in the absence of any substantive knowledge, I am forced to look to recent history, and – spoiler alert – it is not good. Michigan has lost 13 of 15. So until Michigan reverses that trend, I'm unfortunately going to have to go with the Buckeyes. Fortunately, in this instance, I know nothing. Ohio State 24, Michigan 21.
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COUNTERPUNT
By Nick RoUMel
Today’s column is written by our guests from www.twosixtynine.com1. Their motto: “Half right, half the time!” Please welcome Nate Bronze and his shadowy counterpart, “Serrano.” In the meantime, Counterpunt is off looking for his lucky shirt.
BRONZE: We at “269” have barely digested our Thanksgiving feast of roasted crow, and are now back at work crunching numbers, analyzing metrics, and making bold predictions.
SERRANO: Nate, what do the data tell us?
BRONZE: Ohio State – Michigan is a big game. It has an ELO2 rating of nearly 1600. Whoever wins has an 80% chance of making the CFP.3
SERRANO: How do you know it’s not a 90% chance?
BRONZE: Because it’s a MUS4, calculated from CAM.5
SERRANO: What does Michigan need to do to win?
BRONZE: Pray for rain. There’s not much else they can do to slow down Barrett, Samuel, Weber and company. Michigan is also in trouble offensively if O’Korn plays QB.
SERRANO: Not necessarily. Expect Jabrill Peppers to get more snaps behind center, not just in the Wildcat. I believe Coach Harbaugh has been saving a lot of different looks up his sleeve for this contest.
BRONZE: They would have a much better chance if Mike Trout could play quarterback. Gosh, if he had played college football, he would have been the G.O.A.T., president of the student body, and cured cancer in his spare time.
SERRANO: Uh, right. Make the call, Nate. What’s it going to be today?
BRONZE: I have analyzed every game in each player’s college career, adjusting for factors such as strength of schedule; different coaches, teammates, and formations; injuries and even weather. This commonly known SYTYSKBATETLU6 measure tells us that Ohio State has precisely a 50% chance to win.
SERRANO: I see it differently. Using a formula that is MSIN 7 , I put Michigan’s odds for victory at 50%.
COUNTERPUNT: Enough! Don’t one of you have the balls to call this one?
BRONZE: Actually I have 50% testicular capacity...
SERRANO: ... as do I.
COUNTERPUNT: Let me have my column back, please.
BRONZE: That’s fine; I have to go clean my Mike Trout shrine anyway.
COUNTERPUNT: Here’s the call, sports fans. J-Pep takes a punt return to the house to seal the win, and strikes the pose.
DESMOND “MR. HEISMAN” HOWARD: You know Charles Woodson was also planning to strike the pose in 1997, but I paid a few players to mob him before he could do so.
CHARLES “MR. HEISMAN” WOODSON: My punt return against the Buckeyes was still better, Desmond. Plus we won the national championship.
DESMOND: Harrumph. Let our readers decide:
JABRILL PEPPERS: Ha. Wait until you see mine!
1 Actual website registered by Counterpunt, as yet undeveloped.
2 ELO Rating - The extent to which the game is more compelling than an Electric Light Orchestra concert.
3 CFP = College Football Playoff rankings, essentially a glorified poll that chooses three teams to compete with Alabama for the national title.
6 SYTYSKBATETLU = Statistic You Think You Should Know But Are Too Embarrassed To Look Up. When reading an article containing such an acronym, you skip over it and hope it isn’t mentioned again.
COUNTERPUNT