just the usual 270-pound freshman RB taking a direct snap and running a read-option with the backup QB wait what
Today's film post is brought to you by Theraflu. In related news, tomorrow's will be brought to you by Seth. (Thank you, Seth.)
I ended up watching last week's Indiana/PSU game for this post, which was a hell of a game to pick while taking heavy-duty cold medication. The Hoosiers had 454 yards on 5.5 YPP against a good PSU defense; they also fumbled five times—four on offense, one on a punt that hit a blocker—and lost all five. They broke out their Wildcat package with Tyler Natee and Zander Diamont but didn't deploy it in a way that made any damn sense. Richard Lagow didn't throw any picks but still alternated brilliant throws with wildly inaccurate ones.
And to think, for a moment there we thought we'd lost CHAOSTEAM.
Personnel. Seth's diagram [click to embiggen]:
That's a lot of sore spots, especially for an offense that isn't outright bad. QB Richard Lagow is marked as such because he's either great or terrible, which is not ideal at that position. Cronk, Rogers, and Friend all grade out as bad run blockers to PFF, and Cronk adds terrible pass protection as well; this checked out on film.
The personnel wrinkle to watch is the one highlighted at the top of the page. Indiana will break out a Wildcat of sorts with 270-pound freshman RB Tyler Natee and mobile backup QB Zander Diamont in the backfield; in a twist, Natee, who played QB in high school, takes the direct snap more often than Diamont.
Spread, Pro-Style, or Hybrid? This is a Kevin Wilson production, so I probably don't have to tell you it's a spread.
Basketball on Grass or MANBALL? Lots of outside zone, with some inside zone and pin-and-pulls as changeups; I recount one power that didn't go anywhere.
Hurry it up or grind it out? IU's no-huddle isn't quite at ludicrous speed this year. They're still quite fast and capable of tempoing a defense into mistakes. They rank 23rd in adjusted pace.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the breakdown.]
Quarterback Dilithium Level (Scale: 1 [Navarre] to 10 [Denard]): Richard Lagow is not a running threat; he's slow-footed even when moving within the pocket—it takes him a while to step up and reset. Zander Diamont, on the other hand, is much more of a runner than a passer, to the point that Indiana is actually utiziling him as a RB in that Wildcat package. He gets an 8.
Dangerman: Dan Feeney, the All-American guard, has shifted to right tackle because of injuries along the IU line. While he doesn't quite have the impact on the edge that he does on the interior, he's still a huge plus in the running game out there. Here's a simple downblock on which he walls off two linemen and impedes a third, springing what would be a good gain if the rest of the blockers didn't have issues IDing their downfield blocks:
Playing out of position at tackle, Feeney is more holding his own in pass protection than dominating. He can get beat off the edge upfield, and while he does a good job of pushing rushers past the pocket, that penetration becomes an issue if other linemen lose their blocks—not an uncommon occurrance.
Receivers Ricky Jones and Nick Westbrook are different receivers stylistically with similar strengths and weaknesses. Both are productive because of their athletic talents—Jones is fast and a good route-runner, Westbrook is big and positions himself well—and the way the offense can free up receivers downfield, and their ability to break big plays keeps this offense going; IU needs big plays because they often fall behind schedule.
Despite their numbers (9.3 YPT for Jones, 11.3 for Westbrook), strong PFF grades, and overall impact, I went back and forth on whether they should get stars. Both had opportunities to come down with tough catches that could've swung the game and failed to do so. Westbrook let an inch-perfect fly route bounce off his hands in the first half:
dropped
Jones's drop wasn't as egregious, but he had a chance to convert a first down on a ball that hit him in the hands and couldn't haul it in. On the other hand, he somehow caught this after the ball was batted by the PSU defender:
I find Jones to be the more dangerous receiver from Michigan's perspective because of his ability to separate and get yards after the catch. Westbrook is more of a deep threat and contested ball guy, and he's not quite elite in those regards, but he gets open often enough that it's hard not to consider him a threat. I think that's more the offense being really well-designed than Westbrook being an excellent receiver, but he's good enough to post big numbers with regularity, and it's hard to ding a guy too much for playing in a smart system.
Zook Factor: As mentioned above, Kevin Wilson's deployment of the Natee/Diamont package—which has been really good as a changeup and short-yardage option—was confounding in this game. The worst instance of this occurred when IU faced fourth-and-goal from the one in the third quarter. Bashing ahead with Natee should've worked, and that looked like IU's initial plan; they sent out Natee and Diamont in a backfield with starting RB Devine Redding, but took too long deciding on a package/play and burned a timeout.
After the TO, they went with the base offense and called a rollout pass play they'd already used earlier in the game. PSU had made the requisite adjustment and Lagow had nobody open:
He tried to force it to the receiver standing farthest inside (on the bottom of the 'N'); I didn't ding him for the throw nearly being picked off, since on fourth down you have to take a shot.
With IU down only two points, Wilson tried to start a fourth-quarter drive with the Natee/Diamont package and stuck with it despite a holding call on first down. First-and-20 isn't the ideal situation for that group; a one-yard Natee rush later put IU in a tough spot. Back-to-back incompletions led to a punt and PSU extended the lead with a field goal on the ensuing drive.
HenneChart: Lagow is an interesting guy to chart, because he either looks like an NFL quarterback or a guy who shouldn't be on the field.
| Opponent | DO | CA | MA | IN | BR | TA | BA | PR | SCR | DSR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSU | 5 | 12++ (8) | 2 | 6x | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -- | 61% |
Lagow did a better job in this game than usual in not throwing football directly to opponents; he didn't add to his 13 interceptions on the year, but it's quite likely he's going to turn the ball over against Michigan. Lagow was either great or awful in this one. He hit a number of deep comebacks to keep drives alive; his arm strength is impressive and he looked very comfortable throwing that specific route:
It's sometimes difficult to understand how the quarterback above is the same guy as the quarterback below:
Indiana did a solid job of gameplanning to Lagow's strengths. They mostly eschewed intermediate throws—the ones that most often require threading the ball into a small window after reading the defense—for deep shots and screens/dumpoffs. Lagow missed a couple deep balls, including a should-be touchdown to Westbrook on a post route, but those misses didn't result in turnovers, and he didn't have Hackenberg-like issues on his screens and short throws. If he can make one read and unleash, he's pretty good; when he has to survey the defense or escape pressure and reset he gets himself into trouble.
OVERVIEW
Every snap came from either the gun or pistol, even those that came on the goal line:
| Formations | Run | Pass | PA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gun | 27 | 28 | 11 |
| I-Form | -- | -- | -- |
| Ace | -- | -- | -- |
| Pistol | 8 | 4 | -- |
| Heavy | -- | -- | -- |
While Wilson's offense and playcalling are generally quite good, I found this team rather predictable:
| Down | Run | Pass | PA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 21 | 8 | 3 |
| 2nd | 10 | 11 | 7 |
| 3rd | 4 | 13 | 1 |
They want to establish the run early, but they just aren't very good at running. Devine Redding is a back who gets you what's blocked and little more:
There were a few other runs of similar promise that ended with Redding faceplanting after being tripped up by the ankle. He's a significant step down from Jordan Howard, and the backups are just plain bad if Mike Majette, who missed this game with an ankle injury, isn't able to play.
Blocking, which I'll get to later, also plays a role. So does alignment. IU tips run or pass based on where the running back is lined up. If he's in the pistol or offset a yard behind the QB, it's a run or play-action pass (or RPO); if he's next to the QB, it's a pass. I think PSU snuffed out this play because the RB's alignment made it obvious IU had just checked from a pass to a run:
Defenses can't do that every play because play-action is still a factor, but it's something to keep an eye on, especially when IU changes their call at the line.
That said, blocking is the bigger issue. IU's line has two major holes in center Wes Rogers and left tackle Coy Cronk. Rogers has the worst run-blocking grade I've seen (-22.9) and is mediocre in pass protection; Cronk's overall grade is nearly as awful (-21.1) because he's equally bad in both areas. While his PFF grade is only slightly negative, left guard Wes Rogers didn't look good to me, either. Successful runs mostly went off the right side behind Feeney and right guard Jacob Bailey, who's not the star PFF expected him to become but still better enough than Rogers that it's strange he hasn't been a starter all year.
Pass protection is an adventure in large part due to Cronk, who's a turnstile on the blind side.
That sack also highlights their other blocking issue: tight end Danny Friend is not a good blocker in either area, and since he grades out negative in the passing game it's hard to understand why he's out there instead of putting another WR on the field and spreading the defense out more; his presence at a blocker isn't helping and he only has seven catches despite playing the vast majority of snaps. The edges aren't the only problem in pass protection, as the interior—which has shuffled around a bit this season—had some communication issues against blitzes and twists:
To top it off, Redding blew a blitz pickup on the sack-strip-touchdown that put the game away for PSU.
The receivers are the strength of this offense. Jones and Westbrook are dangerous, and slot Mitchell Paige is a reliable underneath option save for one rather big problem: he lost two fumbles in this game, one on a tunnel screen and the other on a reverse, that were entirely his fault. Donovan Hale and Luke Timian both saw time as extra receivers in this game and performed well in limited snaps; Hale converted a couple of those deep comebacks with precise routes.
IU's best hope to stay in this is still the passing game, as I just don't see how they'll overcome having 2/5ths of a functional run-blocking line and a bad blocking TE against M's defense. Of course, it's hard to see Lagow not making a serious error or three (or five), and the left side of the line is going to have major problems keeping Lagow upright. Indiana will put up points—a missed tackle on a WR screen or zone stretch here and a wheel route there should get them on the board—but doing so consistently will require a lot of things breaking the right way for them.