Upon Further Review 2016: Offense vs Iowa

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FORMATION NOTES: Hey, it's Iowa.

4-3 over with two high safeties on just about every play. Iowa will insert safeties into the box post-snap like Michigan's done with some frequency this year; they are a cover-two-heavy 4-3 defense like they have always been and will always be.

SUBSTITUTION NOTES: The usual at QB and OL. Darboh got almost every snap (55 of 61), with Butt not far behind at 48. Chesson was at 37. Smith got two-thirds of the RB snaps with Chris Evans getting the bulk of the remainder; Higdon(5 snaps) and Isaac(1) saw reduced usage. Hill had an edge in FB snaps with 19 to Poggi's 12.

Rounding out the offense were scattered snaps for Perry, McDoom, Crawford, Wheatley, Asiasi, Drake Harris, and Juwann Bushell-Beatty.

[After THE JUMP: plane, meet mountain]

WHAT HAPPENED TO SPEIGHT AHHH

I dunno, man. The weird thing is that Speight started out looking much like he had in the previous three games. He missed a bomb to Darboh early, but other than that he was rolling out and finding guys downfield impressively, or actually hitting a downfield shot, or hitting open short stuff with ease. By the time Michigan scored to go up 10-0, he had one inaccurate pass and one marginal one against 9 DO/CA throws.

This did not last, to put it mildly:

[Hennechart orientation: mouse over column headers for explanations of the categories. + is handed out for a good throw under duress. * is handed out for a very bad version of a bad thing. Numbers in parens are screens. DSR is an attempt to compress the numbers into one overall number. PFF is PFF's grade.]

That is a collapse. Speight's DSR over the final ~40 minutes was 40%.

Things went haywire after the RON COLUZZI IS A GOLDEN GOD punt. He overthrew Jake Butt badly on a three-yard route, setting up the ensuing safety, and over the next four drives these were his non-screen attempts:

• Underthrows Chesson by five yards on a waggle comeback
• Underthrows Darboh by 20 yards on a stop and go that was eyepoppingly wide open
• Sacked despite being given a full five seconds before contact
• Completed drag to Perry
• Nearly throws INT at Perry when he is flanked by open guys
• Underthrows Darboh by 20 yards on flea flicker
• Throws it way behind Butt because a linebacker made him; had two open guys further outside
• Sack/strip that's not really his fault but does have a hitch-up that allows the DE time to get home

You can't move the ball like that.

There was no apparent reason for any of this. There was no wind. The two throws prior to this long period in the desert were the 29-yarder to Chesson and an accurate quick out. Speight didn't get hit on either throw, and the only contact he took until the end of this period was a sack on which his legs were grabbed and he went down without taking much of a hit. Speight's performance dropped off a cliff without any ready explanation.

Things didn't get a ton better even after this dismal period, but to make thing even more bizarre Speight put a ball on Butt that could not have been thrown better:

This was a brief period; two plays later Speight would overthrow Darboh for a sure TD for the fourth and final time.

On all of these Darboh was somewhere between two and five yards clear of the last defender. One was somewhat understandable since it was a flea-flicker on which the toss back disrupted the timing. The others were deeply unfortunate. Two were so long his WR had no chance to make a play—leaving it a bit short at least gets you a good shot at a completion or a PI call. The other two were so short they let a badly beaten DB get a play on the ball.

That's just some shit, man. I again ask why things happen if they're not going to indicate things that will happen in the future.

Was Speight hurt?

Probably not? Michigan did check him after their penultimate drive, when Speight took a shot to the shoulder from the crown of Jaleel Johnson's helmet. (Yes, targeting, no, I don't expect them to get it right.) Prior to that there didn't seem to be anything that would indicate Speight wasn't at full strength. He was clearly wounded after the last play, but the shoulder-checking period of our contest saw Speight throw once.

Distant possibility: the Awuzie annihilation against Colorado did something and this is a chronic issue coming to the forefront for whatever reason.

So he just decided that one third of the way through the Iowa game that he would suck.

Look, man, I clipped everything. The receivers did not catch the damn ball sometimes, but on many of those opportunities Speight made it more difficult for his WRs than was necessary.

Not catching the damn ball, you say?

Michigan's receivers did not catch the damn ball.

[0 = uncatchable, 1 = circus catch, 2 = moderate difficulty, 3 = routine]

ROUTES: Darboh +++-, Chesson +.

1/6 on moderately difficult catches is very disappointing. Historically about 2/3rds of those are caught. This near-touchdown was emblematic of the WRs' night. Yes, Speight can and should throw this better. Chesson still has the ball in both hands and can make a catch.

Chesson does not. The DB does not make that play. He's in the area, he hits the WR, but he does not get his hands to Chesson's. He's dropping that mostly on his own. It's not routine; it's not a circus catch attempt. It is a makeable play unmade.

A virtually identical missed opportunity transpired on the final offensive play. Speight got instant pressure and just punted one up. Darboh simply misses; again the cornerback only contributes to the incompletion incidentally.

There were a couple instances where I thought Iowa just made a play—a third and goal shot at Darboh was open but deflected away by a guy covering Butt—but 80% of Michigan's passing struggles were Speight missing open guys, picking the wrong guys to throw at, or Michigan receivers not following Mike Valenti's advice to MAKE PLAYS.  The remainder is Iowa exceeding expectations, mostly in their pass rush.

At least the run game was ... oh.

Yeah, man, not much solace there. Chart:

No adjustments this week.

Jaleel Johnson is real good and caused some issues, but many of Michigan's run issues were just mental errors. We've talked about the safety a bunch already; with everyone else on the offense blocking one particular guy it has to be a Kalis issue where he just leaves a DL because he busts his assignment.

Most of Michigan's pitch sweeps were defeated because Michigan OL failed to recognize what was happening in front of them. Kalis steps inside here, right behind Cole, as the eventual TFL recipient runs by him:

That goes back to an inability Kalis had to ID who he should block last year; it's been absent in 2016 until this game, when it came back with a vengeance. Frustratingly, the rest of this play was blocked well, and with a reasonable block on that LB Smith is into the secondary:

This is a classic demonstration of the fact that one missed assignment can ruin an otherwise well-executed play.

A depressing second: on the failed third and one pitch late Bredeson pulls when he's got a guy shaded right inside of him:

That is handing Iowa a gift, plain and simple. I minused Bredeson there but I think this might be Michigan screwing up the line call and traceable back to Cole. If it was just Bredeson screwing up Cole would be trying to pull; instead he tries to block that guy shaded outside of him, for all the good that does.

A third sweep that got TFLed was featured Braden pulling and Bredeson futilely attempting to reach a guy shaded outside of him and booking for the sideline on the snap.

Football's geometry is ruthless, and if you try to bend the rules like this you will get got. The sheer frequency with which this occured is baffling. The latter two plays here are not tricky at all. All of Michigan's sweeps are pin-and-pull, and the rules are dead simple. If there's a guy shaded inside of you, block down. If there isn't, pull. Michigan botched this repeatedly ten games into the season. I am at a loss to explain why.

A couple other things were easier: Ben Bredeson is a freshman. Michigan's third and thirteen screen was actually set up for success until Bredeson feinted at the one linebacker in the area and continued on his way. Linebacker missed the tackle but the timing's gone and Michigan got two yards. The Newsome injury bit Michigan in this game.

You mentioned something about a scrape exchange?

Iowa was scrape exchanging all night when Michigan showed them zone read action. If you're rusty on your RichRod era UFRs, on a scrape exchange the DE and OLB swap responsibilities. The DE shoots inside on zone read action; the linebacker scrapes over the top to contain. Examples will follow.

This early run from Evans works because Magnuson fends off the DE trying to slant inside of him, which is super tough.

Iowa replaces that DE with their linebacker sliding outside to be the force guy. You'll note that this was early in the first quarter. Michigan saw this immediately and consistently. It was mostly a Peppers plan, and a successful one.

Peppers is reading the DE and pulls; Iowa inserts a linebacker directly into his path since that DE is covering up the inside gaps the LB would usually be tasked with.

Since I watched the Rodriguez era at Michigan this is familiar to me. Also familiar to me: the various counter-punches Michigan threw at this. Remember that brief era when Carlos Brown and Brandon Minor were running directly off tackle for big chunks on the regular? That was due to Michigan's response to this kind of approach: blast that guy slanting even further inside, kick the linebacker out, and thunder directly to the secondary.

Michigan did not have this in its back pocket. On their last run of the game they were still getting got by Iowa's exchange, which continued to induce doomed Peppers keeps.

This one is slightly obscured by the TE frippery on the outside but it's the same principle. DE slants inside, read, LB cleans up as there's nobody for that guy. Michigan failed to attack the gap the slanting DE leaves all night.

I was frustrated watching this, as Michigan is usually very good about anticipating responses to what they're doing and hitting at the weak spots of those approaches. Despite a whole game to come up with a response to this, they kept doing the doomed thing. With the designed Peppers runs reasonably successful, going zone read again when you've gotten thumped on it all night is crappy playcalling.

Smith ran for 2.3 YPC. Evans ran for 6.5. Smith should be benched.

Well first here's a chart.

RB chart (WR grades are run only):

So yes, Evans had a better night than Smith. Evans did well and scooted through some gaps that Smith may not have but he did not make a ton of his yards on his own. He was the recipient of superior blocking, so when he got to the line and there was a gap he hit it.

When Evans did find people in his grill, his runs looked like Smith's runs. This is what a Smith run looked like in this game:

And this is what Evans runs looked like when Iowa defeated Michigan's blocking either by winning a block or RPSing M:

When Smith got good blocking he got his yards, just like Evans. There was very little difference in yards they picked up on their own. Evans squeezed through some extra holes; Smith bashed out some YAC. The problems with the run game were not on either back. For whatever reason, Smith got stuck with the runs on which Michigan let guys free; he burrowed for what he could and Smithed out some important yards to turn third and medium into third and short.

Add in the fact that Smith is a massively better pass protector and the snap breakdown mostly makes sense. (Isaac is dinged.)

Sigh.

You said it, man.

Stanford or whatever of the week?

There wasn't much other than the wacky Speight-under-Kalis direct snap to Peppers and the flea-flicker.

Both were successful. Michigan had the wherewithal to torch Iowa over the top repeatedly even if they didn't get any, you know, yards.

Iowa won the tactical battle from the shotgun with the scrape exchange Michigan did not respond to.

Heroes?

Jake Butt had some good blocking and one very tough catch. Evans did well with his opportunities; I thought Hill consistently moved people.

Maybe not so heroic?

Speight fell off a cliff after the first 20 minutes. His WRs did not help him out when given the opportunity. Kalis and Bredeson had repeated mental errors that blew up plays for critical TFLs.

What does it mean for Indiana and beyond?

We've rather dented the Speight hype train. If he plays either of the next two weeks—which again we would be surprised by—nobody will know what to expect. A truly open quarterback competition is suddenly much likelier over the offseason.

Michigan needs to stick and move with their spread stuff. Iowa's response was 2009-issue spread countermeasures. Disappointing that Michigan did not anticipate that, or at least recognize it once Iowa saw it.

Let's not overreact about certain things. While the WR output was thoroughly disappointing all of the gents in question have long track records. They're not suddenly much worse players. Decrement expectations. Don't flatten them.

On the other hand, folks with mixed or short track records... Kalis's sudden regression to last year's stuff can't be looked at in the same light because for most of his career he's been the guy he was in this game. Devin Asiasi also had a rough game and we'll have to scale back expectations meaningfully for him since there's not a lot of data there.

Braden was mostly fine against a very good pass rusher. He got beat for one sack/strip and had a communication issue on the last play. Four pass protection minuses is survivable. I would have been worried about 6 or 8 or whatever.