Upon Further Review 2016: Offense vs Maryland

SPONSOR NOTES: We're going to Iowa thanks to Matt, and he's going to be tailgating prior to the game. If you're going, hit him up and stop by. We'll be around for a few hours before the game, traffic and weather willing.

In addition to being a gentleman replete with Michigan tickets, Matt is also a good man to know if you need a mortgage. It's striking that we actually get non-astroturfed comments about positive experiences with Matt not infrequently.

If you're buying a home or refinancing, he's the right guy to call.

FORMATION NOTES: Maryland switched between fronts a bunch, seemingly because they were trying to find anything that could possibly work. A 3-4 was their base set through the middle of the game; late and early they were mostly four-man fronts.

None of this went well. Here is an obligatory picture.

Michigan didn't do anything wacky with formations aside from some pistol stuff that is pretty standard at various places around college football.

SUBSTITUTION NOTES: 59 snaps for the line before they were pulled on the final drive. Braden-Bredeson-Cole-Kalis-Magnuson for the third straight week; Kugler got two RG snaps after the Kalis personal foul. Butt and Darboh were close to omnipresent with 47 and 44 snaps; Chesson got 33.

De'Veon Smith usage surged to two-thirds of Michigan's snaps, with Ty Isaac limited to four. Evans and Higdon had 13 and 11. Peppers got four. Hill and Poggi continued to split FB snaps about down the middle. Asiasi, Bunting, and Wheatley all got around 20 snaps; Crawford, McDoom, and Harris got around 10.

[After THE JUMP: many, many touchdowns.]

That was... thorough.

Check out what Michigan's done with their first-half possessions since the bye week:

• Illinois: 6 drives, 4 touchdowns, 1 field goal, 1 punt.
• MSU: 5 drives, 3 touchdowns, 2 field goals
• Maryland: 5 drives, 5 touchdowns

That's 12 touchdowns and 3 field goals on 16 drives. Two of the field goals were kicked not because Michigan got stopped but because halftime was nigh.

None of these teams are good, but that's insane. Speight going from meh to legit good has turned this offense into a juggernaut not far off their defense. Metrics that attempt to adjust for SOS are inching into the bonkers zone. Michigan's offense is #8 in S&P+, #4 in FPI, and #1(!) in FEI.

And... I don't know if I disagree? Especially given the trajectory here. Those metrics include a big chunk of the season in which Speight was not playing anywhere near this level. "Ain't played nobody" is a charge with some merit, but I mean dang man, 'Bama had 17 points at halftime against Kentucky. Much of the time you fail on offense because of things you're doing independent of the opponent (see also: first three drives versus Rutgers). Michigan's error level is impressively low.

You can see this in Michigan's adjusted pace. Michigan is meaningfully above average at 39th despite having an offense that never tries to go up-tempo and has a ton of realignment and motion. That's indicative of a team that gets out of the huddle quickly and gets to it. Remember those Al Borges teams where they'd be in the huddle with 15 seconds on the play clock? Yeah, not so much with Michigan this year. They are well coached.

AND THEY HAVE THE GREATEST QUARTERBACK IN HISTORY

uh

HARBAUGH SAID SO

kinda

JUST GIVE ME THE CHART

Chart:

[Hennechart orientation: mouse over column headers for explanations of the categories. + is handed out for a good throw under duress. * is handed out for a very bad version of a bad thing. Numbers in parens are screens. DSR is an attempt to compress the numbers into one overall number. PFF is PFF's grade.]

Sooooo... not bad. This is the throw that made me say uhh in the stands:

That's not a tough throw. It caught my attention because of Speight's command. He pops up off the PA fake and knows Darboh will be open between the LBs and bam it's out and right on point. This was Michigan's second drive and in fact Michigan's first play after the Darboh TD; this was the point at which it felt like, look, Speight is dialed in and just this guy, you know. This is New Speight becoming just Speight. A later out would feel similar, as M ran double outs to put Maryland in conflict and Speight read that side of the field, slotting in a ten yard out to the field that has perfect placement:

Maybe this all goes away in flames against OSU, but at this point that would be a surprise.

Speight's ability to avoid pressure and make something positive happen is verging on the uncanny. He's got perfect timing for evading guys coming in hot, and then he keeps his eyes downfield:

That's a juke, man. He moves up in the pocket for a step before pivoting backside. Then he completes a pass to a guy who's not even supposed to be in a route there. In addition to the above, Speight had two scrambles(!) in this game and nearly had a third when he tried to spin through a tackle and almost did.

I had a big argument on WTKA this morning about whether Speight was more mobile than John Navarre--I said not really--but I think we might have been talking past each other a bit. Speight's ability to move around the pocket is terrific, and proven. Not only does he bug out when he should, he will stand in against pressure and fire completions.

Happy feet are not a problem.

In addition to meticulous underneath dissection, Speight was lighting it up downfield. The trick play didn't really trick Maryland's DB much, and Speight had to re-set after catching an iffy pass from Peppers and nail Chesson in pretty tight coverage; he did so.

The wheel route to Harris was perfect.

Even the incompletions were pretty.

I charged him with two inaccurate balls: one the spectacular three yard catch by Hill, the other a comeback route wide of Darboh in part because Karan Higdon ended up in Speight's knees for reasons that remain mysterious. I certainly could have filed that as a neutral throw.

So that's all right then.

This was the first game where it really felt like all the triplets were activated at the same time.

Yuuuup. All three guys came to play. The opening touchdown was a 40-yard throw that I marked CA because Darboh (and what I assume is a free safety bust) made it stupid easy. His corner-post route is run through the defensive back and doesn't rely on the guy biting to work. It's just a matter of momentum:

He's added the deep threat to his arsenal in a big way; he's beyond any reasonable expectations now. He's playing out of his mind.

Oh, and he's also out here pancaking DEs.

Darboh's now a complete receiver who the NFL will be very interested in.

While we're on the WRs, note that Chesson had a productive day on various routes that he ran well.

That head turn as if he's running an out induces a bite on third and five; that's all she wrote. He's open by a full four yards. Last week's minor panic was a bit hasty. While Darboh has passed him, Chesson's still at a terrific 9 yards per target.

I didn't clip anything from Butt but he had a significantly positive day as a blocker and had two De'Veon Smith-esque runs after the catch.

While we're talking receivers, catch chart:

[0 = uncatchable, 1 = circus catch, 2 = moderate difficulty, 3 = routine]

ROUTES: Darboh++, Chesson+, Butt+, Harris –, Crawford –.

Just two passes filed at zeros for the whole day.

So... not to get ahead of ourselves, but Harris is a starter next year?

He does seem to be emerging into the #4 target. This is the third downfield shot at Harris that should have gone better. This time it was kind of Harris's fault, but the catch he made after his ticky-tack OPI was real nice. The rapport he and Speight were reputed to have seems to be paying some dividends for him--as is Grant Perry's suspension.

Harris will remain an interesting slot option since he brings a big-play element that most slots don't, and it's going to be super hard to not give him a good matchup with Michigan's other weapons. Against cover four teams he could be a secret weapon. Don't be surprised if he scores against OSU.

Kekoa Crawford also helped state his case:

Those two guys and McDoom would appear to have the edge at outside receiver.

And that left side of the line? Still okay?

Depends on who you ask.

*[Three points for Butt for runs after the catch.]

PFF and UFR numbers are pretty close on just about everyone except Ben Braden, who I thought did a very good job; PFF not so much. (I assume that Hill's blown pickup got misclassified since he's got a –1.2 in the pass game but pass blocking was positive.) Unfortunately, I didn't really clip anything either way. Braden did have a couple of blocks on which he looked less than impressive but got the job done, and I'm guessing PFF was harsher on those than I was.

Bredeson had a couple of big mental errors that cost Michigan chunk run plays but was solid otherwise; Michigan ran successfully off the left side about as much as the right. @JDue51 first picked up on this excellent blitz pickup from both guys on the left side in this game:

Braden and Bredeson repeatedly passed guys off to each other and various tight ends and the like; even with the usual level of freshman stuff from Bredeson this is going about as well as can be expected.

That goes for the rest of the blocking as well. Michigan hit the Mendoza line and exceeded it at 69%, and would have had a truly big percentage there but for the two –2 mental errors from Bredeson and one power play that got buried when Magnuson blocked the wrong guy on the backside. This was always supposed to happen against a very bad run D. Hooray for it happening.

You don't seem to be writing 2000 word screeds about running back cuts anymore.

I know! I'm not even slightly tempted. Chart:

RB chart (WR grades are run only):

That's at least the third straight week just about everyone comes in positive in both metrics. Ty Wheatley for the win.

With Ty Isaac limited we got a heavier dose of Smith than usual and he was his usual mauling self.

I did detect a biff from Smith on Michigan's first run, when he avoided a big gap outside and cut it in for a modest gain. Don't know if he saw Poggi get rocked back or just assumed the LB would fill space he doesn't; that downgraded a chunk run to four yards. I guess he's cutting off the Cole block.

In any case, that was the only run of 19 on which I thought Smith could have done better. He's night and day from midseason last year.

Evans and Higdon both had nice days as well. Higdon's ability to take this run which should be stuffed at the LOS and turn it into four yards is eye-opening:

That's some Mike Hart stuff.

Evans got a lot of run in Michigan's oddly effective zone read game and made a couple of excellent backside cuts.

He goes down easy compared to the other guys; he's usually eaten up more yardage than the other guys before contact.

Bunting got 20 snaps? I didn't even notice.

Neither did I. He didn't do anything to pop out either way. Bunting ended up 0.0 overall to PFF and I didn't chart any of his actions.

But those other TEs...

Yeah, I mentioned a couple of thumping Asiasi blocks in the game column, and lo, they were just as good on replay:

That's an ass-kicking, and he's been so consistent at doing this when he gets matched up with any back seven player. He doesn't fall off; he doesn't get run around; he stays attached when things aren't going quite as well as they did above. He is a stunningly good blocker for a freshman. Remember freshman AJ Williams? Yeah. Asiasi is something else.

In addition, we're starting to see flashes from Wheatley. He was the main driver on a successful power play:

He had one bad play on which a guy chucked him downfield but was otherwise a consistent positive in the run game. This was not the case earlier this year.

If you'll permit me a bit of an odd comparison, he kind of reminds me of Ben Braden last year. He has a tendency to lean with his upper body and lunge at people, so he falls off rather spectacularly when that doesn't work out. He is large and powerful and hints that he's good pop through intermittently when he gets it right. Also like Braden, PFF is harsher on him than I am because he isn't directly responsible for lost yardage but he's not exactly textbook.

This game was progress for him, and hopefully by the end of the year he feels like Braden did entering this year: a large man who decent but still working on his technique. Difference is he'd have three years left instead of one.

Still on your Hill kick?

Yes. Impact fullback is a thing man. He had another edge two for one:

And he displayed his hands on that juggling stab of one of Speight's few errant passes.

He stands guys up on iso blocks and is a plus receiver; he will be in the NFL for a long time. I still find it odd that he's getting limited snaps; just 18 in this one. Both I and PFF are consistently grading Hill out as the much better run blocker, and there's no contest as a receiver.

Stanford... Harbaugh stuff?

The flashy item in this game was the double pass trick play, but, uh... Michigan might get 40 yards if Peppers just runs the dang sweep.

I now want Michigan to run this except Peppers turns around to throw it back and then just takes off on the sweep again. We can get weirder.

We got some more of run for Chesson at... fullback. Last week he led out for a Peppers touchdown; this week he motions into a pistol backfield and occupies a linebacker with some help from a hypothetical Speight keeper.

My immediate thought when I see a WR/TE in the backfield is that Michigan will throw, and you can see the Maryland ILBs aren't exactly firing at this run with vim and vigor. Using Chesson as an arc blocker isn't getting the extra blocker the zone read tries to win back since there's only one guy checking Speight and Chesson, but it did effectively remove his man from the equation.

Also that arc block can easily turn into a route.

TRAIN made a couple more appearances, though on the first one Darboh actually ran to his intended spot before realizing it was TRAIN. This was nearly a big play as Braden adjusts to a DE running away from him, but Poggi hit the same guy:

That's a huge gap but for the mental error, and for whatever reason TRAIN keeps resulting in plays that either are or probably should be successful. It's Michigan's version of going tempo. They can substitute their weird packages and insert Chesson a TE or FB or whatever and get the advantage of a D trying to figure out how Michigan intends to screw with them in the one second between set and snap.

Heroes?

Speight, obviously. The three amigos at WR all had excellent days. Hill was very good in limited time, and the line as a whole performed very well. That is about the whole offense, but Michigan put up 660 yards. It probably should be.

Maybe not so heroic?

PFF didn't like Braden. I did. Nobody else comes close.

What does it mean for Iowa and the future?

This is (probably) Speight now. Maybe not this exact game but the average of the last three weeks. Iowa will be something of an upgrade on Maryland—maybe not statistically, but certainly in having Desmond King. And Indiana is a top 25 S&P+ pass defense, so if he can maintain his play over the next couple weeks I'll be confident he can win the Game.

The running backs know what they're doing. Almost no negatives for the third straight week. They hit almost all the gaps. They break tackles. Coaching. It matters.

The wide receiving trio all performed. Chesson shook off some criticism from last week to have a good game; Butt is Butt; Darboh is killing it.

The left side of the line is probably both fine and the biggest way Michigan's offense falls apart. Bredeson is still a freshman and that will come to the forefront from time to time. My grade for Braden is based on the fact that he did not get Michigan tackled for minimal gains much; PFF's grade might be closer to his projected performance against an OSU. This is almost literally the only worry I currently have about the offense.

Drake Harris is getting off the cart. Now he just has to catch one of those long ones.