Upon Further Review 2016: Offense vs MSU

SPONSOR NOTES: Matt reminds me that there is some chatter that the Federal Reserve could finally raise rates in the near future, which would be bad for your mortgage.

In addition to being a gentleman replete with Michigan tickets, Matt is also a good man to know if you need a mortgage. It's striking that we actually get non-astroturfed comments about positive experiences with Matt not infrequently.

If you're buying a home or refinancing, he's the right guy to call.

FORMATION NOTES: Michigan broke out the 'bone a couple times:

That is a bonafide flexbone. One of these snaps was a jet sweep, the other a trap that coulda shoulda worked in the fourth quarter but for McDowell blowing Cole up.

Pistol diamond with MSU in their very standard arrangement:

4-3 over, two safeties sitting at 8-10 yards, on damn near every play.

Late MSU did split their LBs and blitz them as they threw the kitchen sink at M in an attempt to get the ball back.

But it was mostly "here we are running quarters."

SUBSTITUTION NOTES: Starting line with the Braden/Bredeson left side for the second straight game, Speight your QB. Peppers got six wildcat snaps and one as a WR; Morris got thee QB/FB snaps. JBB got five snaps as a TE-type substance.

Darboh led the way at WR with 54 snaps; Chesson had 40 and Harris, Crawford, and McDoom got the scattered remainder. Poggi and Hill again split FB snaps about down the middle. Smith got 60% of the RB snaps with Higdon and Evans splitting most of the rest; Isaac was only used on four snaps, three of them sweeps.

Butt got 57 snaps as the primary TE; Asiasi (31) and Wheatley (18) also got significant action. Bunting was briefly on the field as well.

[After THE JUMP: three quarters of up and down the field followed by (correct) turtle time.]

They really kicked our ass.

Mmmhmm.

Jake Butt isn't a hammering panda and had some difficulties, but Michigan hitting people hard was a theme throughout the day. The MSU defense was Malik McDowell crushing people and not much else. Michigan gave it to 'em.

But the total yardage wasn't that great.

This was a weirdly short and then very long game, so let's drive chart it:

• 3 touchdown drives of 80, 62, and 48 yards
• 3 field goal drives of 70, 49, and 69 yards, with the short one a 27-second drill that ended with the ball on the five, first and goal.
• 39 yards before Speight throws a pick

That is Michigan's entire output before the fourth quarter. They were stopped only by an interception and ripped up and down the field. Michigan had first and goal on six of those seven drives, and they were only stopped on one of the field goal drives because they'd run out of time in the first half. That is a redzone conversion away from total dominance.

Michigan ended the game with a bit of a thud, going three and out twice and getting one first down on the other drive; all of those were Lloydball drives on which M ran into stacked fronts and maybe took a shot on third down. You can disagree with the approach there, but it's a fact that M turned off the scoring O in the fourth. On third and thirteen they had one WR on the field and threw him a bomb down the sidelines—that is the definition of maximum safety.

I'm not that concerned about the four minute offense being bad. Michigan was very close to getting the extra first down or two that prevents the irritating fourth quarter. MSU started loading up, Michigan lost a couple McDowell matchups, and they got RPSed a bit, and Speight left that corner route to Chesson short, preventing an exclamation-point TD:

Later on that drive Higdon fails to follow what looks like a well-blocked power play:

Michigan ends up losing another McDowell matchup on third down and punts. This was a combo of guys off by a hair and McDowell being McDowell; it looked mostly fine and followed what was, again, a complete domination.

Thanks to WILTON SPEIGHT-DOCK!

really

Look man we can't all have nicknames like Citizen Dang.

Speight's game remained impressive after a detailed review. Chart:

[Hennechart orientation: mouse over column headers for explanations of the categories. + is handed out for a good throw under duress. * is handed out for a very bad version of a bad thing. Numbers in parens are screens. DSR is an attempt to compress the numbers into one overall number. PFF is PFF's grade.]

Speight had some bang-up passes; he also had a bunch of throws I filed "marginal" because they either made it tougher for his receiver to catch or robbed them of YAC or were incompletions on which I thought he had a really small window he almost hit.

He was confident and had B+ accuracy; this wasn't last week or UCF but neither was it close to his grim midseason performances. By the third quarter I was expecting him to convert on third down and long, and he did.

I still think that's a hair late but this is a sophomore confidently throwing over the middle against zones without incident. That's not particularly common in college football. He was able to stand in thanks to his OL for much of the day and made good on that time with rifle shots across the middle:

And like Rudock before him he is beginning to explore the #buttzone.

There were some overthrows and Darboh bailed him out once, about which more in a second; as the charting says these were acceptably few in number.

His ability to feel and avoid pressure remains a strength; it was the main catalyst for the early bomb to Darboh:

That is an obvious strength at this point. Speight's pocket awareness is excellent. He doesn't get happy feet; he moves around when he should and doesn't when he shouldn't.

On review some things looked better, some looked worse. Speight's impressive ability to stand and deliver was nice, but it was strictly unnecessary:

That throw is way late, as you can see the underneath coverage has cleared; from the stands it was clear Darboh had already turned around and stopped by the time the ball came out. That got downgraded from a DO.

On the other hand, the disappointing incompletions that prevented Michigan from going 4/4 on first-half TD drives started with more than 27 seconds on the clock were mostly on his receivers and some poor officiating. This wheel to Smith is in fact his best and only option:

Darboh is held and therefore has no route, refs –2. Hill falls and can't get into what I assume is going to be an open flat route. Speight might as well take a shot, and the area he throws the ball into is the only one where his guy has a vague chance and the DBs do not.

On third and goal M put it all on Chesson winning a route against a safety and he did not.

Speight tries to hit a tiny window and can't; I grudgingly put that in the inaccurate bin, but Chesson really has to do better against a safety. Get your body into him before the break, or break sharper, or feint inside. Don't do that.

Anyway: Speight continued his Rudockening; this wasn't an electric performance but it was quite good, and if he can continue this for a couple more weeks Michigan can enter the 'Shoe confident in their QB.

He did get helped out by Darboh a ton, though.

I mean... Darboh did have a couple circus catches.

[0 = uncatchable, 1 = circus catch, 2 = moderate difficulty, 3 = routine]

ROUTES: Harris +, Chesson –, Hill –.

Yessir.

Darboh had his best game at Michigan by some distance, adding a strong #2 to his pantheon of Citizen Dang catches:

Only that grab against BYU last year tops that. Or maybe this is #2:

Refs will usually let you get away with some handgrabbing, but when it's 20 yards of it and you end up catching a ball in your chest with one hand that should be obvious enough to draw a flag. Extremely hypothetical MSU UFR person* offers up a +1 to the CB and says "rubbin's racin'" here, because dude gets away with it. But I don't know how you let this go and hit Peppers with his terrible call or make half the other PI decisions in this game.

*[He quit after the Wisconsin game and also never existed in the first place because the MSU fanbase can't support a high quality independent team blog.]

Like, wasn't there a blatant one on third and a million?

Yep. Michigan had to settle for a 44 yard field goal because of this on third and goal from the 26:

I have no earthly idea how you miss a guy arriving that early. That this play came after a 50/50 OPI call rankled even further. These guys were idiots the whole game, from the missed Bush targeting call to virtually every PI decision to Tackle Taco Time. This was the second consecutive year the refereeing in this game was straight trash.

I think we have to stop calling the weekly Harbaugh hijinks "Stanfordization," because to me that means punting on fourth and three from the opponent 32.

Hmmm. You've got a point there. I'll search for better lingo.

But anyway gimme.

The biggest tactical takeaway wasn't the existence of something but rather its absence: MSU's double A gap twist blitz. You may remember that blitz from Spittle Flecked Rich Rod Rant and Spittle Flecked Al Borges Rant way back when, because Michigan ate it over and over and over again for TFLs and stuffs and sacks. No longer. They still run it. It's not working.

Michigan's opening first down was a double A blitz that got Bullough through, but to do so he had to go so fast that he overran the play:

Michigan got the other guy; Cole probably biffs on Bullough but he doesn't compound the mistake by turning upfield. It's his block that makes the room for the Smith cutback, and then it's Godzilla versus the fishing village time. (Another thing to note on this play: Darboh doesn't get the crack block on the S but the threat of it makes him come in so hot that Smith can easily juke him.)

MSU tended to run it whenever Peppers came in at QB, and it got them nothing. The McDoom reverse was a double A on which that call erased even the vague possibility of LB-level pursuit. It was also just a vicious play to try to defend.

As soon as Peppers starts to run left the entire damn defense freaks out about it.

A subsequent Peppers zone read found MSU running a double LB blitz; it wasn't into the A gaps, but it was directly at the play. M ran an inverted veer with a tweak that occupied a DE and forced the blitzing LB to respect the threat of a give, and that's bad news:

This was even happening when Speight was your shotgun quarterback. Smith's six yard TD late in the second quarter was another double A blitz that Michigan had the answer for:

By this point it seemed clear that shotgun snaps got double A blitzed a lot, so Michigan might even have gone with the gun here specifically because they wanted the gut of the D to be linebackers instead of DTs. McDowell rips outside and finds air.

The lone time it did help MSU was on the interception, but even then Kalis was in position to block the guy. He just did not.

The trademark MSU defensive playcall was comprehensively beaten. Finally. All of these plays feature the extreme aggression of the MSU linebackers being used against them, something that Michigan hasn't been able to do in forever. Can't block 'em? Run right by 'em.

Any other blips and bloops?

I also think Michigan had some stuff in there that they couldn't quite execute. Smith got blown up for little on a corner blitz, and Darboh was openly frustrated that Speight didn't see it and abort to a little hitch route.

TRAIN. TRAIN?

I'm not exactly sure what TRAIN bought M this time since they just lined up in an ace twins formation and threw out of it. It did work:

I guess it's tough to get a blitz timed up when you're figuring out what you're looking at?

And the Peppers stuff?

I'm not entirely opposed to Peppers as full time redzone QB. People are legit terrified of him. Smith ate up seven yards from the ten because this was the DE's reaction to zone read action:

That looks like how people used to defend the read option a decade ago, before shuffling and all that business came into vogue. (Also, this play was another double A gap blitz that M just ran away from.)

Peppers is causing people to forget the last ten years of football, and you kind of understand why that might be:

Damn shame Magnuson couldn't maintain his block because that could be a TD if he does and man that's going on a Heisman reel.

Anyway. Shuffling against him is asking for trouble. MSU played him to give on conventional zone reads in a way that harkened back to RichRod at Glenville State. Michigan is increasingly incorporating plays on which there is no read or he's the default option to keep (inverted veer) as they explore how much you can get away with no-throw Denard.

What was with the JBB as a TE thing?

Michigan used to to spread McDowell out way away from the line early, which was interesting. He didn't have to do anything except exist two yards outside of normal inline TE positioning to give Michigan a bunch more breathing room against the best player MSU has. MSU switched it up and JBB didn't get many snaps.

One of them was the INT, and on it he completely blew a protection, as per Harbaugh in the postgame presser. He totally blew a blitz pickup on another snap as well. The sheer number of errors in scant playing time is simply too much for him to continue seeing the field. He might continue doing so because Harbaugh has a role for a sixth OL, but I'd be surprised if he was in the conversation for much else going forward.

Speaking of pickups, you have some OL numbers for me?

*[Hill got a half point for running.]

This week I'm in almost total agreement with PFF. Michigan had some struggles, mostly against Malik McDowell. McDowell is responsible for almost all of the Bredeson/Cole negatives and would have graded out with a huge positive and significant negative in Extremely Hypothetical MSU UFR; M scuffled but pulled through for the most part with a good performance from the right side.

Pass protection was exceptional with the exception of Kalis, who had some uncharacteristic struggles, and two blown blitz pickups by JBB on two snaps.

Cole isn't grading out so hot this season.

No, but I'm not going to read too much into this game. Afterwards it was revealed that Cole had the flu or strep or hand and mouth or something; he was also going up against Malik McDowell a lot. Grading on a curve is appropriate. The number above does not grade on a curve and is ugly because MSU's short yardage tactic was to single McDowell up on Cole and figure the rest out. This was a good plan.

Mason Cole.

Oooof. pic.twitter.com/aST5DuXjS5

— Due (@JDue51) October 30, 2016

McDowell will do that to a lot of centers when he's interested and not limping off with another minor injury; he was fired up for his last M-MSU game and looked like the top ten NFL pick he's reputed to be. So maybe that was always going to happen.

I was a bit more disappointed that other Michigan State DTs were able to do anything other than pick their teeth up off the ground. Michigan ran a counter trap that should have busted for a chunk, but Cole again allowed his man to get to the hole:

I wanted Kalis to hit that NT and dinged him for that, but I also think Cole should be able to drive that NT and step around him so that Hill can jet to the second level. That dude who beats him is a redshirt freshman.

But apparently NFL draft guys like him, so maybe I'm wrong? M did do a great job on those double A pickups and he's a big part of that, and he was flawless in pass pro.

Anything on the tailbacks? Are we concerned that they did not get big chunks of yards?

RB chart (WR grades are run only):

They were good, offsetting a rough run-blocking day—just 54%. Imagine me saying that last year. I should note that half of Smith's big day was for a couple crushing run blocks. He was still good with the ball in his hands but with a +8.5 you might expect him to be averaging 8 YPC or something.

Even with the questionable blocking M's backs got a goodly number of yards. There were 8 Lloydball carries for 14 yards. In the portion of the game where teams were acting normally they had 20 carries for 97 yards, almost 5 YPA. While you would like Michigan to have done better on their four minute offense, only the Higdon carry on which he cut away from what looked like well-blocked power stood out as a problem. It was kind of a problem:

On the other hand, I did like Higdon's ability to slice through the MSU defense on this crack sweep:

The vision issues on power are kind of becoming a thing, though. Hopefully he can get those straightened out.

MSU was blitzing desperately on the remainder and sometimes you get got when that happens. One more yard on either of Michigan's last two drives and this whole Death With Dignity narrative doesn't get off the ground; oh well.

Anything you mostly clipped for next year's season preview but briefly want to touch on here?

Devin Asiasi is going to be a big deal, man.

It'll be interesting to see Michigan's offense with a couple of guys who might be truly elite blockers at TE. Butt's all right; Asiasi could be a killer.

Heroes?

Darboh, Speight, and De'Veon Smith. I thought Hill was terrific at FB again.

Maybe not so heroic?

Poggi again struggled in my numbers and PFF's. The interior OL got walloped by McDowell. I get that.

What does it mean for Maryland and the future?

If they come up some elite NTs they're going to struggle. OSU doesn't really have those guys this year and I think that'll be an even matchup. If M comes up against a Clemson or Alabama I don't think M will hold up well on the interior.

Speight is one week closer to being a real good time. He now looks like a guy winnowing his flaws on a weekly basis. They exist and will continue to exist; the trajectory gets another data point.

Darboh's the top WR. Dunno what's with Chesson but the failure to beat a S on that goal line play is a bit worrisome. Darboh is doing excellently on contested balls.

Impact fullback Khalid Hill. Long past time to give him bulk of FB PT, I say every week.

So far so good for Braden at LT. No protection minuses, and he had a few McDowell matchups.

Peppers for redzone QB. Hell, man he can just hand it off and still occupy two guys.