Upon Further Review 2016: Offense vs Illinois

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FORMATION NOTES: Illinois loaded the box the entire game, usually in an over front

They played with one safety exclusively and had 8 or 9 in the box depending on whether M was in a big formation or not.

Michigan didn't have anything too weird except a slightly modified T:

This was one play only. Oh, right, and TRAIN.

SUBSTITUTION NOTES: Starting line of Braden-Bredeson-Cole-Kalis-Magnuson went most of the way, getting 66 snaps each. The backup line now reads JBB-Runyan-Kugler-Onwenu-Dawson, FWIW. Ulizio got bumped by JBB, must be primarily a tackle.

Butt got the most snaps of any skill player with 56, and Asiasi wasn't far behind with 41. Wheatley had his most extended playing time in a while with 31 snaps; Bunting returned on a single snap. With Perry out the main beneficiary was Kekoa Crawford, who had 35 snaps; Chesson had 33 and Darboh 44. McDoom had his usual deployment.

Poggi and Hill again split snaps about down the middle.

[After THE JUMP: a diversity of items.]

Did anyone call this a trap game?

Absolutely not.

Even so it says something that Michigan ripped off four long TD drives to start the game, though?

Yes. It says that Michigan's good at football, and good at breaking tendencies in ways that get them big chunks early in games. There's no better example of this than the hilariously open McDoom swing pass. I've taken the unusual step of highlighting an opponent, which I'm sure you'll agree is the most cromulent way to imbibe this play:

My favorite bit is right before that guy scrolls off the screen, when he looks back and figures out that something is not quite right.

...oh

Later that drive Michigan pulled out the TRAIN to general merriment, and Seth pointed out that the camera caught an Illinois defender staring uncomprehendingly at whatever this was:

Dollars to donuts that he is thinking "f--- Jim Harbaugh" at this very moment.

I was struck by something when Michigan pulled a lineman late in this game: Michigan barely does this except on their crack sweeps. I have exactly two(!) power-ish plays of any description listed in this game, one a straight up power O, the other a counter. They also ran an inverted veer, which is also known as "power read." The rest of the 18(!) different run plays they used are a profusion of variety heavy on iso and variants thereof with a smattering of zone plays, traps, and various Peppers exotics.

Manball is an amorphous term but power is usually thought to be a huge component of any offense that dares to call itself thusly. Michigan pulls its guard to run play action more than they do to run the ball. Strange but true, and deadly. For years I associated manball with running the same damn things over and over and out-executing your opponent. That was a false impression given to me by Lloyd Carr; this offense is so far from boring, and Illinois #1 knows it.

But this is not the important thing. We know this. The important thing was the throwin', right?

We got UCF Speight back for this game and it felt real good.

[Hennechart orientation: mouse over column headers for explanations of the categories. + is handed out for a good throw under duress. * is handed out for a very bad version of a bad thing. Numbers in parens are screens. DSR is an attempt to compress the numbers into one overall number. PFF is PFF's grade.]

Second straight week without a bad read and a new career high in dead on throws makes for a happy DSR. PFF was highly enthusiastic for the first time as well; they also handed him almost a full point for his scramble.

What happened? I'm sticking with my theory from the game column: Speight entered the year all coached up by Harbaugh and played excellently. He got battered early against Colorado and reverted to bad old habits, whereupon an uncomfortable amount of pressure got him sped up and prevented him from reclaiming his early season form.

The bye week was a chance to recalibrate that Speight took. The most impressive throw was a dart on a post route that was between three defenders:

Yeah, he had the guy in the flat open for third and seven. Instead he goes and gets 27 yards and most of the way to a TD. We'll see if this lasts; right now that throw feels like the badass crossing route to Jehu Chesson that announced the flaming phoenix version of Jake Rudock.

That's because it was surrounded by other throws only marginally less impressive. He stands in against a guy running up the gut and delivers the ball for a first down here; if it's a tiny bit behind Chesson that's because Chesson didn't sit down quite enough in the gap in the zone. 

This skinny post looks easy and is easy but watch Speight's head snap from the middle of the field to Darboh right before the throw.

It's easy because he holds the S, and the ball is out right when it needs to be. That's a guy for whom the proverbial slow down has occurred. He knows exactly what he's doing and executes it confidently. A corner route that couldn't be thrown better was in the same category:

His accuracy snapped back to that UCF level, with even mild issues exceedingly rare after his obligatory first crappy throw. His efficiency was even perhaps undersold by the numbers, as a perfectly-thrown potential touchdown wound up incomplete thanks to either interference or an excellent play by a DB, depending on your point of view. (I thought it was good coverage, myself.)

If Speight continues to play like this through the rest of the regular season, I will issue an unironic We Want Bama. Long way to go for that Rudock trajectory to become clear, though.

Smith is old! Outdated! Let's put him on the shelf next to the Atari 2600! I've got a new shiny console!

He's only averaging 5.2 YPC!

EXACTLY

Is this a serious take?

Yes. Higdon and Evans and I guess Isaac but he's also old and busted and barely averaging 5 YPC.

Well. First, let's talk about the Illinois run D approach: they run at everything as hard as possible. Check the UI linebackers on Michigan's first play:

Hell for leather. Everyone, all the time. Both times Michigan trapped in this game the DT set free ran upfield so fast that the trapper neither could nor had to block him. Sometimes the LBs bit on play action even when Michigan was not running play action. In this context there are going to be some TFLs, and Smith suffered almost all of them through little fault of his own. And even so he pounded out a bunch of yards.

4.2 YPC? Pshaw.

First let's check the

obsolete chart

it's not obsolete, it's cutting edge with PFF data

whatever

jerk. Chart.

RB chart (WR grades are run only):

So for one, there aren't big chunks of negatives for Michigan's main runners. While they will occasionally make a goofy cut, those are now anomalies instead of half of these posts on a weekly basis. Smith included and perhaps especially since he remains the top back, getting about half the snaps when the first team is in. 

I'm just going to take it as read that Smith is the best option on short yardage and inside the ten because I'm not arguing with anyone crazy enough to dispute this. So let's axe the five goal-to-go carries on which he got nine yards. That's 5.2 YPC on the remainder. And yes that's not, like, ten, but so much of that has to do with the vagaries of blocking and the fact that Smith is cooling his heels when Michigan's in salt-the-earth mode late. He remains able to dismiss linebackers and DBs as if they are paper mache.

Tyrone Wheatley has gone to work on him and he's going to continue to get a bunch of carries, because he is an established pass protector in a way nobody else is.

Buuuuuut Higdon.

Don't get me wrong, I'm on the Higdon bandwagon as well. The his long touchdown was a terrific combination of raw speed—he blew past a safety's angle so fast it was no contest—cutting ability, and power.

Almost every time he got the ball in this game he broke a tackle or dusted a guy in the open field or slalomed through gaps in the line at speed. Higdon has a knack for not losing speed as he adjusts his path, and he feels blocks developing.

He tends to take the most efficient path through the line.

If he's legit fast, which he's hinted at but never really shown until the touchdown and third-and-seventeen conversion, that's the total package. Nobody is emerging faster, and on this team that's quite a statement.

We seem to be running for many, many yards. OL... good?

One more chart:

*[PFF handed him a +1 for running the ball. I gave him +0.5, which is not in the blocking total.]

Note that the metrics below only cover the starting OL.

PFF and are clearly in disagreement about how various OL are performing. I am usually going to hand out some positives when Michigan gains a chunk and when Michigan spends the day running into stacked lines with blitzball LBs for 270 yards I'm going to be generally pleased with the state of affairs; I can't say I get the grades above.

You liked Kalis a bunch; PFF not so much. Time for a bunch of clips I think.

Kalis did have a zone biff—though it's hard to tell sometimes because Michigan doesn't run zone much and it's vaguely possible things are as intended—that stood out because of the rarity of such occurrences this year. When not doing that he was thwacking guys impressively and then getting out to the second level:

That's textbook. (I mean, probably?) This was similar but even better as his thwack is thwackier and Evans gets a chunk largely because he carved out the space himself:

This is what happens when a frustrating player has the proverbial light go on; Kalis is your 2016 AJ Williams Memorial Senior Bust-out.

But you're both meh on Cole.

On a less salutary note, Mason Cole hasn't been great at center. I chalked up early issues to a bunch of 3-4 defenses featuring mondo NTs that are bad matchups for him. By this point it's clear that's not the only issue. He's not getting out in space as much as he did as a tackle and he's not doing a great job finishing blocks even when his guards help him out significantly. This iso momentarily looks like it'll be a gash when Bredeson pounds the NT but Cole doesn't step around and seal him out; NT gets back to the gap.

On a counter play in the second half, Kalis whacks a guy and then leaves for a linebacker; Cole does not attempt to step around and seal him at all, and falls to the ground as his guy goes and stuffs the play.

Remember that Cole was Michigan's best run blocker by a great distance a year ago; this year he's scuffling in the zone Braden and Kalis were in a year ago.

Michigan has not played to his strengths much. Since they're gashing folks on the ground this is not an actual issue, but I was struck on another offset draw when Cole did a great job to block a linebacker for ten or fifteen yards downfield.

That kind of stuff is why Cole was one of PFF's top run-blocking tackles in the country last year, and it hasn't been frequent.

So how did the revamped left side do?

Very well. Braden was virtually unnoticeable in pass protection against a very good rush end and when his blocks were relevant on the ground they were positives. (Caveat: many complaints from Illinois fans that their ends are horrible run defenders; I agree with those complaints.) The sack Braden was charged with is about 90% Wilton Speight holding it... holding it... holding it...

He mirrors the first two moves and after that you're on your own, Mr. Quarterback. That drew the very rare TAX out of my Hennecharting. A 'throwaway' so bad you get sacked on it.

Ideally Braden is at least able to stay attached and give Speight an opportunity to move around, but when that's your only pass pro issues against Illinois's DEs that's a terrific result for a guy who just moved to tackle this week. FWIW, Michigan didn't rush towards Braden much; when plays cut back to him he was carving out big gaps with good kickouts. His biggest contributions were a couple of impressive hurl-and-release blocks on the offset draw.

I had him for a single run minus as he missed a LB amongst various positives. While I expect he'll be worse than Newsome and will have some struggles against B or B+ pass rushers, I feel much, much better about the LT spot.

Next to Braden, Bredeson had a breakout game. I've harped on his many missed assignments so far this year; his only major issue on Saturday was a biffed stunt pickup that got Speight sacked. He did let a few blitzball LBs past him, as OL are wont to do. On the other hand he was moving people to the point where the running back could make something of the play. Here he drives the NT so far down the line that Higdon can cut right off him for a first down despite a LB jetting into the backfield:

With Cole popping off on one LB he's got to stay on the DL and hope that the linebacker doesn't make the play; that is indeed the case.

I also appreciated his pull on the one bonafide power play M ran. Illinois slants hard and Bredeson thumps the guy headed directly to the back, giving Smith a crease.

If Poggi gets much of anything on the backside end that's probably a first down.

Bredeson flashed power a freshman should not have; he got a couple of those NT-moving hits that Kalis specialized in, and on this play he took a slanting DT and deposited him outside the hash:

I in fact handed him a minus for hitting the nose tackle too hard on a play, about which more in the Stanford section. That was the kind of day he had. Occasionally he kicked someone ass too much.

That bye week must have helped a ton because Bredeson suddenly looked like the guy pushing Grant Newsome instead of a freshman who goes the wrong way more often that not. I know the response to this is "just Illinois" but level of competition caveats don't really apply. PFF had the Illinois DTs even or better as run defenders entering the game; Ace was also pretty impressed with their performance against Nebraska. These guys aren't meatballs. They aren't Malik McDowell. They're average Big Ten players.

That Poggi number, though. Yikes.

Both PFF and I had big negatives for Poggi thanks to missed blocks, getting blown up, and some targeting issues.

It's well past time to start giving as many snaps to Hill as he can handle. He is the superior receiver and regularly gets +2 blocks like this one on Isaac's near-touchdown:

lol gtfo.

He also got another one of those edge two-for-ones, hilariously planting a DB and then cutting off a guy trying to pursue from the inside.

Poggi isn't doing this and multiple times in this game he ended up lying in the running lane next to his man. Seven games in it's clear who the starter should be.

Did Peppers swing too hard towards keeping the ball this week? He had a lot of carries that didn't really go anywhere.

Most of those were actually designed runs or stuff like inverted veer where the default is a QB carry. The DE has the RB covered here and Peppers must pull:

That didn't work largely because Michigan sent Asiasi wide, either in anticipation of the DE overplaying Peppers or because a freshman busted an assignment. (I charged it to RPS, FWIW.) And four yards isn't the worst.

I had to look at it a lot but I'm pretty sure the keeper that looked the worst and had the worst result is just a good play from the DE. Butt gets hammered so badly here I have to assume he's trying to avoid contact and arc out to the LB. Also he seems to attempt a juke on that end. 

With no lead blocker Peppers gets hemmed in and TFLed. That looks like a terrible pull decision but it is again a play on which the default leans towards a keep; Illinois just happened to have the right answer.

Man, Wheatley is just... large.I want him to make more impact. Is that crazy?

Yes, large and agile and when you see him get something right you're just like yes that again. I'm repeating myself here since my game column take on Wheatley was "large good fast man" but it bears repeating:

That's a natural receiver for a 280 pound guy. His blocking is a work in progress but with Harbaugh in charge you have to assume it's going to get there, whereupon you have a uniquely tantalizing player.

Asiasi did regress from his excellent game against Rutgers; on one play he led out into a LB, got blown up, and dragged his man down, drawing a call. Unevenness is expected from freshmen; he should clean it up and start getting after it in earnest next year. The kaiju are flashing glimpses of the finished product and hoo, boy:

That is going to be fun.

You mentioned this above, but Stanfordization stuff?

Michigan added a wrinkle to its double iso stuff. Whereas previously the C would take on the NT by himself, in this game they comboed him. No idea if that's permanent or just a tweak or if it's based on what Illinois was doing.

Michigan ran an outside zone variant on which the C pulls around the playside guard; we finally asked James Light for some lingo. He supplied "dart" or "fold"; I'm calling it dart zone.

This one got stuffed because Bredeson hit the NT too hard, cutting off the Kalis/Magnuson combo block. On the one hand, good job hitting someone hard. On the other, to get this right Bredeson has to cede some ground so that Kalis can get out to that LB.

There was of course the McDoom play mentioned above and the column led with a description of the vast diversity of Michigan's ground game. I don't have a playsheet and am probably missing several slightly different varieties of iso or whatever that I just lump into one play; I'd say we're just about all the way there.

Receivers?

[0 = uncatchable, 1 = circus catch, 2 = moderate difficulty, 3 = routine]

ROUTES: Chesson +, Butt +, Wheatley +, McDoom –, Harris –.

Johnson also had a catch on a 3.

Mostly uneventful day. Crawford dropped his one target; on the other hand, he had a couple of excellent blocks to seal the edge on Michigan's crack sweeps. Early struggles are being put in the past as he begins to live up to his Chesson-esque recruiting reputation.

Heroes?

Speight was excellent; I thought Higdon and Smith got all the yards that were blocked for them and then added some on. Nobody on the OL was an immense standout but all performed well, especially when you consider a mostly clean pocket against a tough pass rush.

Maybe not so heroic?

Poggi missed a ton of blocks and singlehandedly took Michigan's blocking success rate from 66% to 61%.

What does it mean for Michigan State and the future?

Cumong Rudock trajectory, let's go. Speight's game was just as good as it looked live, and a couple more games of that level of performance and Michigan's down to one big hole on the entire team outside of kicker...

And they might have fixed that. The Braden/Bredeson debut on the left side of the line went about as well as could possibly have been expected. It's still a downgrade from Newsome and will meet issues when Bredeson does freshman stuff and Braden ends up leaning on a good pass rusher. Even if things come down from a good starting point the line felt way, way less rickety than it did with JBB at left tackle.

Hill for full time fullback. You probably have to rotate FBs just to keep the pounding down, but it's past time to move beyond the 50/50 playing time split.

Kekoa Crawford is leading for an outside receiving job next year. He got a bunch of snaps in Perry's absence and has the size to move outside.

Higdon is for real. Better than Mike Weber yo.

It took Tyrone Wheatley a year but he got the RB corps straightened out. If you'd told me in fall of 2015 that by this point I'd think Michigan has four good running backs, I'd have hugged you. Error rates have fallen precipitously. Go coaching, go.