Upon Further Review 2016: Defense vs Rutgers

SPONSOR NOTES: Rutgers's total yardage is like Matt's rates: absurdly low! Their general organization is like Matt's competition: disorganized beyond belief! Your pants after watching the Peppers punt return are like your pants when applying for a mortgage with Matt: optional but discouraged!

In addition to being a gentleman replete with Michigan tickets, Matt is also a good man to know if you need a mortgage. It's striking that we actually get non-astroturfed comments about positive experiences with Matt not infrequently.

If you're buying a home or refinancing, he's the right guy to call.

FORMATION NOTES: Rutgers was all gun and mostly three-wide. Michigan responded with two different approaches. One was their conventional 4-2-5. Here Thomas and Peppers are over the slot receivers with out of the picture as the free safety.

The other was a 3-3-5 package; since I consider Peppers a safety those were listed as 3-2-6. Similar packages with Furbush were labeled as a 3-3-5.

Michigan had this setup, which is close to a stack. They had others where a safety crept down to an OLB spot that were kind of a 3-4; I called those "faux 3-4." They had some 5-1 lineups with two LBs on the end of the LOS and the DL folded inside. This package comes in for much more discussion after the jump.

SUBSTITUTION NOTES: Obviously there was a massive pile of it. The starting line only got about 20 snaps each, with Hurst getting 26 to lead all DL. Gary, Charlton, Wormley, Winovich, and Glasgow all got around 20. Godin got just 12. Jones, Onwenu, and Kemp also got late snaps. Lawrence Marshall did not play and did not travel.

Starting LBs went the whole way until the starting D got lifted; backups were as expected with Furbush at SAM and Bush and Wroblewski at ILB. Wangler got in very late, as did Mbem-Bosse.

Secondary as per usual. Metellus, Hudson, and Kinnel split snaps at S with Kinnel getting more time since he plays on passing downs with the regular D. David Long got far fewer snaps than Lavert Hill... still affected by that injury?

[After the JUMP: oh man]

Heh.

Yep. Can I point something out?

I assume this is what you're going to do for the rest of this post.

This play was the only Rutgers completion to gain yards.

You'll note it's not actually a passing play. This was the other completion.

Michigan literally gave up –1 passing yards.

Was there anything of interest other than the various staggering numbers that you can throw out?

Yes. Rutgers is a homeless man's Ohio State and a lot of the concepts Michigan saw are parts of the OSU offense. Michigan was particularly effective at defending various iterations of the inverted veer. They spent large parts of the game in a 3-3-5 (that's really a 3-2-6 with Peppers on the field) deploying various anti-spread blitzes. Here the two linebackers exchange their expected responsibilities:

McCray ends up the player tasked with the gap just inside Peppers, and he gets through free because two guys go for Gedeon. Better teams are more likely to pick this up, but giving the opposition an opportunity to screw up like this is a Don Brown staple. The exchange causes one guy to block air, and it also induces the wrong read from the QB since he sees the playside backer dive in. (Also Peppers doesn't need the help after hopping around a RB trying to lead out.)

And sometimes it feels like Don Brown has downloaded you. On the next play after this the jet motion is met with Thomas blitzing from the backside, which is the perfect response to what Rutgers has on:

Don Brown feels that play action coming since it's the next part of the script.

Later the 3-3-5 would dial up a blitz against the jet sweep on which Peppers and Thomas occupied three guys to the outside and Gedeon was the spectacular beneficiary:

I watched this game and I was like "huh... so that's how the stack is supposed to work." Michigan's blitz packages from it bought them free hitters a ton. The Rutgers caveat is only applies so much when I'm not sure how the offense makes their play work if they eat this blitz.

Similarly, Michigan got both guys who stunted to the QB on a QB lead outside zone—another OSU staple. Here Michigan has tucked the DEs inside for a "double eagle" formation, and that alignment adjustment gets Wormley through. The loop around is also good for Glasgow, but unnecessary:

OSU will be better than Rutgers at all these things. They are starting a freshman guard, though, and the panoply of different looks should remain effective.

I expect to see this package against OSU. Not full-time, since flipping between fronts will help Michigan keep OSU off balance. Ross Fulton discussed this in the aftermath of the Wisconsin game, where OSU struggled early against the 3-4 but downloaded it in the second half:

The odd front limits Ohio State’s ability to create double teams and attack the A-gap bubble with its base tight zone run play. The Badgers frequently blitzed the inside linebacker to the halfback side to further constrict inside running lanes....

But following halftime, Ohio State had 100-percent drive efficiency for the remainder of the contest – meaning that every Buckeye drive created a scoring opportunity. Like every other scheme, cover 6 has weaknesses – particularly in field side force support.

Wisconsin had minimized this weakness with its overhang outside linebackers. But Meyer and offensive coordinator Ed Warinnersolved this puzzle with Bash– Ohio State’s primary run play for the remainder of the game. Bash stands for backside sweep, and consists of tight zone read to the quarterback with the halfback running a sweep away from the offensive line action.

As we saw last year, if you keep running the same thing against OSU they will adjust and find your weak spot. I expect Michigan to alternate fronts extensively; this game was a proving ground for their stack, and it's off to a good start.

It's not that this particular approach is going to win against the spread every time, it's that the ever-shifting pile of looks is difficult to block correctly. You'll note the difference between Brown and Durkin here. Durkin picked his thing and stuck with it despite the warning sign versus Indiana; Brown is already diversifying with a spread-run oriented defense that Michigan will continue to refine for the next month.

As for the individual player grades, the

CHART

chart

wait

CHART

?

one for each first down

...

The chart is pretty much like you'd expect:

[NOTE: PFF grading works out differently than mine. In UFR zero is bad for DL; it's average in PFF. Their scale seems to be about a third or a half of mine. PFF has a "penalty" section that I've elected to omit for space's sake, which is why the individual components might not add up to the "overall." number. I'll note when it's a big discrepancy.]

This was the most absurd blowout in the history of Rutgers and this column. Remove the –3 from Bush, who I don't think will see a non-garbage time snap this season, and you have a total of 14 minuses across the whole team, with zero(!!!) minuses for starting linebackers. Never seen that, or anything close to it, and probably won't ever see anything like it again.

You mentioned that Gareon Conley was giving up 0.0 passer rating when targeted, and that this matched Lewis. So he'll all the way back?

I don't think there can be any question about it. He had that deep PBU to bail his safeties out on the first play but this was probably the best and most Jourdan Lewis play of the day. He's on the slot here and Rutgers is trying to pick up half of a third and eight so they can go for it on fourth down:

That looks simple but how many times do you see that open for four or five yards? All the time. The motion is supposed to put him behind since he has to react to the opposition, and he casually catches up to the point where the QB has to throw the ball away on a dink pass.

Got dang, Ben Gedeon.

The mystery of Ben Gedeon's playing time in previous continues to deepen, as he was terrific in this game. This sack is mansome indeed:

PFF has him the #2 run D linebacker in the nation(!), which is part Don Brown activating these guys for the thunder TFLs discussed above, but also part Gedeon being able to execute these, and tackle once he arrives.

I thought this was equally impressive. He's supposed to blitz up the gut; Rutgers rolls the pocket. He reads this, redirects, and then has the burst to shoot through a gap and hurry the QB:

I spent a lot of time defending Desmond Morgan last year but he does not make that play.

Gedeon's emerging. Going into the season we would have been delighted with a replacement-level linebacker who didn't make plays and didn't vacate gaps; Gedeon has not only been that but he's also got excellent range and Jake-Ryan-like backfield burst. Brown and Partridge have done a ton of work this year; I wonder if the transition from Durkin to those guys is helping the LB corps.

Charlton had the most yin to his yang, it appears.

We've talked a lot about how Charlton is a power rusher, which is good for keeping a coherent pocket but doesn't result in the insta-sacks you see from top-end edge rushers. Charlton had a couple of those in this game:

Just Rutgers, but sacks are hard against anyone. If Charlton can do that semi-regularly to decent opponents that's a new level of pass rusher.

On the negative side, Charlton did seem to give up the edge on the one successful pass-type substance Rutgers had. Ditto a zone read handoff on which he was the unblocked edge guy:

I think that's an artifact of the various blitzes Michigan's running. He might have gotten the wrong playcall. Those stood out because they were almost the only yards Rutgers gained in the first half that weren't a result of using Winovich on a three-man line.

Was there like, anything wrong?

I'm pretty sure Michigan busted on their first play. WR goes in motion here; Peppers signals to Thomas that he's got it and seems to pass off a deep centerfield assignment to Thomas. Both guys then go after that WR in motion, leaving Lewis, who set up with outside leverage, alone against a guy running a post:

Lewis being Lewis he gets a PBU; Laviano being Laviano he didn't throw this away from the DB, where even Lewis was not likely to get to it.

Oh, and Godin got trapped once for a solid gain.

Any new contributors worth talking about?

A couple. Bryan Mone made a couple of plays; he's still having a tough time carving out snaps for himself. Since this game was this game and Hurst ended up playing significant second-half snaps I assume Michigan is still bringing him back slowly from his injury; with the bye week my guess is that he'll be back to a full-fledged rotation member versus Illinois, with extended second-half run.

Here he drives down the line to get a tackle at the LOS:

Pretty good, that. On the next play he chucked an OL past him and then was able to redirect when the QB wanted to go outside of him:

That delay helped the rest of the D rally.

I don't know if you can get Mone a ton of snaps with how everyone else is performing, but he's showing flashes of the guy who's been hyped for two solid years now.

The other guy who announced his presence was Josh Metellus. Since Rutgers barely attempted a pass downfield and this director was from the pore-o-vision school Metellus mostly announced himself by flashing in from offscreen and hammering the QB in the ribs.

This one is reckless, as he doesn't wrap up, but it does get the job done.

His closing speed is impressive and dude is not afraid to lay a lick on someone. He also dipped his shoulder to get under a an OL when sent on a run blitz and tackled from behind:

Coverage? Ask again later. Nonetheless, Metellus is a step closer to validating Devin Bush Sr.'s opinion and defying his (non-ESPN) recruiting rankings.

I feel like we are missing various good plays that are just expected at this point.

Ryan Glasgow: still Ryan Glasgow.

Maurice Hurst: still Maurice Hurst.

Matt Godin: new Matt Godin, with standing up to double teams a thing.

Godin in general continues to be a thing. On Michigan's critical third and two stop in the second quarter it was Godin who was first to the ball, after he shot off the LOS and shed his guy:

Each game serves further notice that he's legit.

Are you just putting the various Peppers punt returns in UFR because you want to make sure you have them for future purposes?

MAYBE

You ain't complaining, though.

So... I mean... I don't want to be negative, but how did they get their first first down at 9:07 of the fourth quarter?

I'm pretty sure Devin Bush busted his assignment. The line slanted right, and Michigan blitzed from that side of the field; Bush also slid to the right.

Could be Carlo Kemp but usually when a LB moves the same direction as the rest of the line he's in the wrong.

Heroes?

Everybody! Literally everybody!

Not so heroic?

Nobody! Literally nobody!

What does it mean for Illinois and the future?

Not much. I mean...

Brown will have a diverse and blitz-laden package for OSU. This was a test run of a package aimed at the Buckeyes. It looked excellent, and you know Brown will have various other things up his sleeve.

McCray and Gedeon continue to exceed expectations. Both had good games; Gedeon's was more spectacular. At this point they are exceeding even reasonable best-case scenarios from the preseason.

Metellus expectations: upgraded. Guy looked like a missile and excellent hybrid space piece. Returns are obviously very early; this was a first step towards addressing low hype levels.