Draftageddon 2016: Roundtable at the Midpoint

Previously:We drafted teams.

As is tradition, in lieu of a short hot-takey preseason all-conference list, this past offseason the MGoBlog staff drafted entire teams from the pool of Big Ten players. This provided interesting content to those who tend to watch the rest of the league, and generated ire from those who’ve convinced themselves these are fantasy teams.

We check in at the midpoint to see how our expectations have fared.

1. MGoBlog’s Mid-Season All-Big Ten team:

Seth: It seems we mostly agree on things. In choosing between Godwin and Darboh I knocked Darboh for some badly timed drops, though his Wisconsin TD is Michigan's most important catch of the season. I wanted to include so many more TEs: Kittle added scary downfield threat to his great blocking, Josiah Price is playing like an All-American, and Troy Fumagalli is Wisconsin's best offensive weapon. McDowell or Replogle was a tough decision for everyone.

Ace I take it you put Peppers at safety to get out of splitting hairs between Igwebuike, Travis, and Delano Hill. But I'm surprised you put Scales above Jerome Baker, who's been a huge part of Ohio State's tough run D.

Ace: I put Peppers at safety more because there are a bunch of linebackers I’ve liked so far. I seriously considered Baker, Ben Gedeon, and Josey Jewell. What I’ve seen from Scales has been really impressive, though. He leads the conference in solo tackles to go with 7.5 TFLs, two sacks, a pick-six, a forced fumble, and a couple pass breakups. The Indiana defense has improved quite a bit, and he’s the player that leaps out to me from that unit.

Brian: I regret nothing.

BiSB: You hired Ace.

Ace:

Seth: Godin over Hurst?

Brian: FIXED

seriously though

Ace: I’ll admit I tried not to come off as too homery and the defense made that exceptionally difficult.

Seth: I mean I'd argue but Mathlete just put this in our slack chat:

If you're standing on Michigan and use a telescope you might be able to make out an average Top 10 defense.

Ace: @brian just saying, you’ve got some honorable mention slots for D-linemen 6-9.

Brian: Seriously though

I'm serious

[Hit THE JUMP for more SERIOUS THINGS]

-------------------------------------------------

2. Which of your guys are significantly over-/under-performing expectations?

Cichy's coverage is so good it turned this possible Buttdown into a tip-ball interception[Patrick Barron]

Ace: Last overall draft pick Kyle Kalis. I know there’s more but I’ll be damned if we’re not leading off with that.

Brian: I thought I could skate by on offensive linemen. This assumption has been... dubious.

On the other hand, Channing Stribling is living up to Michigan's preseason hype for him. Matt VandeBerg was going to be excellent value before he destroyed a vital body part.

Seth: The left side of my line are killers though I took guff for taking both of them, particularly Ramczyk, who was PFF's best OT in the country before Michigan's suicide squad reduced him to 11th.

I think Delano Hill has been fantastic--Michigan's been playing him and Peppers as quasi-linebackers on either side and Hill's been keeping pace. Ricky Jones was supposed to get 600 yards again; he's second in the conference. Jack Cichy is awesome.

Nyeem Wartman-White was about to rescue me from taking him right after McMillan and Walker before he did the same as VandeBerg (since he had a history this is on me). I am disappointed that Mason Cole's been merely good at center so far. And Mone started over Hurst and Godin against Hawaii, got hurt, and is still working back into the rotation. Simmie Cobbs has been sidelined.

Ace: I hit on a lot of Buckeyes. Curtis Samuel is a Heisman contender who I managed to snag in the 12th round. Noah Brown and Malik Hooker were my 20th/21st-round picks. Iowa's George Kittle is arguably playing better than Jake Butt and he fell to the 11th, though in a strong conference for TEs that wasn’t a huge drop. And, again, Kyle Kalis with the last pick.

Under the administration of Early Speight Chesson has regressed to his Early-Rudock numbers [Fuller]

On the other end, Jehu Chesson hasn’t been Michigan’s best receiver, let alone the conference’s, though it’s easy to see that changing if Wilton Speight dials it in over the second half of the season. Indiana guard Jacob Bailey was a huge reach in the 8th round—he was a PFF fave-rave last year but that now looks like it was largely a product of Jordan Howard being really dang good. Brandon Bell got hurt.

Brian, I have to note that Cole Croston was the first tackle off the board, and he is really not good at all—to the point where he’s hurt and may not regain his job when he’s back.

In fact, he’d already been moved to RT before he dinged his ankle.

Brian: You don't. You could just let that go without mention.

Ace: Technically true.

Brian: Or Seth taking a third string NT in round 7.

Seth: He is a Michigan defensive lineman, so if he's 3rd string he's merely the third-best DT in the country.

Ace: He isn’t the third-best DT on Michigan right now.

Seth: We also could not mention that Brian went searching for gems in the gruesome offensive lines of Rutgers and Penn State, and that yielded two guys whom Ace and I labeled trouble spots on FFFF diagrams.

Brian: Like I'm not talking about you drafting the #8 YPA passer in the Big Ten in round 5. See how that works?

Ace: I mean, sure, but I have a Peppers. He can play that.

Brian: YOU CAN'T JUST HAVE PEPPERS DO EVERYTHING

/checks bylaws

shoot actually you can

Meanwhile my motley crew of QBs is #1, #2, and #4 in the league in YPA. Woo.

Seth: Legs count too, Al.

Ace: I’m sure it’s possible to establish a strong running game with LJ Scott and a terrible, terrible O-line, right? There is definitely no available evidence to the contrary.

Brian: I have a good defense

Ace: (waves tiny flag)

Seth: Rashan Gary is a backup and had his snaps significantly nerfed against Wisconsin. Send him back to Rutgers?

BiSB: Brian's quarterbacks lead the teams with the #2, #9, and #17 S&P+ passing teams in the country

I... did not expect that

Ace: Brian’s passing game would be fine but for the fact that he has one healthy receiver, and that receiver is Just A Guy.

BiSB: Can't he just throw to a Peppers? Or does not everyone have one of those?

Seth: Three rotating quarterbacks, an atrocious offensive line, LJ Scott, one okay receiver, and a great tight end. Seriously, this offense reminds me of something.

Ace: harbaughgrin dot gif

Adam: hard to judge my team since everyone has been, is, or will be injured. I do think Darboh's outperformed expectations while Braden, who I'll admit was a reach when I took him, has been worse than I expected.

Oh, and add Brandon Reilly to the list of under-performers. he's been alright, but I expected something of a breakout season.

Seth: What's your take on OSU OT Jamarco Jones? I ask because T.J. Watt was having his way with that guy, so I'm wondering if there's a JBB/Jones comp to be had.

Adam: I thought that was Watt being Watt more than Jones being truly bad.

Ace: Agreed. OSU’s OL numbers are bonkers this year, too, even when accounting for scheme.

Seth: So if Newsome and JBB graded out better...

Ace: I think that’s putting too much into one game against an elite edge rusher. Like, JBB has had obvious struggles blocking the edge.

Adam: As far as I'm concerned, Watt's the best guy we didn't draft. I so wish I had just taken all of Wisconsin's LBs.

Seth: That's probably the next question.

-------------------------------------------------

3. Guy nobody drafted you wish you could add to your team?

Seth: Wattviously.

Ace: Brandon Bell’s injury left me very light on linebackers, so I’d take either of Michigan’s ILBs right now. Gedeon and McCray have both exceeded expectations. Also—ugh—I’d probably take Nick Bosa over Demetrius Cooper at DE.

Adam: Since I already answered this one, I'll take this opportunity to apologize for somehow shortening/adversely impacting the season of all the Michigan players I drafted (Speight and O'Korn excluded). I guess the payment to the gypsy didn't go through. I'll have to check my bank statement.

Oh, I'd like to add Austin Carr right now. That'd help my two-man receiving corps.

Ace: Oh, and give me Marshon Lattimore, either of Wisconsin’s corners (Tindal or Shelton), or Josh Kalu at cornerback over Vayante Copeland, who I should’ve mentioned in the disappointments section.

Seth: I'm happy with my offensive line, but Purdue OG Jordan Roos has been regularly appearing on PFF's weekly all-conference lists, and like, the wrong side of the Danube.

Brian: Sold.

I wish I'd taken Demetrious Cox hahahahaha nevermind

Ace: Serious question: are there any undrafted OTs out there we wish we’d actually taken?

Brian: There's probably someone on a bad team grading out well but hell if I know.

Ace: It was a thin crop to begin with and nobody comes to mind.

Seth: Quick tour around the conference says no—except for the guys we drafted every starting OT in the conference is doing pretty badly. Ohio State fans don't have much to complain about, but when they do gripe, it's about right tackle.

-------------------------------------------------

4. Guys with hype that nobody drafted and that was correct?

Brian: We draft so many people that this will not be a good Q. I have no answers for that.

Ace: “Preseason Top-100” players Montae Nicholson and Michael Geiger.

Brian: oh.

Ace: yeah.

Next question? Or should we all scroll through Dienhart’s list again first?

Seth: Umm…I just pulled up Athlon’s offense:

Devine Redding, Illinois receivers…Jonah Pirsig!!!

Adam: Yeah, Pirsig. I watched film of him for some reason and wooooof.

Brian: JFC, both MSU safeties are on that all Big Ten team.

Ace: So is Wes Lunt.

Brian: Weslunt.

-------------------------------------------------

5. Big Ten player who'll bust out in the 2nd half?

Ace: He’s not exactly off to a slow start post-injury, but I’ll mention Taco Charlton here anyway. Even in Michigan’s get-there-before-a-DT-does-first pass rush, I’m expecting him to finish with double-digit sacks. I already mentioned Jehu Chesson, but this is the category for that comment; if Speight locks in, his numbers will go way up.

Brian: Sam Hubbard is super legit and only has 2.5 sacks so far, which has to be a Frank Clark style aberration where your production does not match your stats because sacks are so dependent on things other folks do. I'd expect him to scrape double digits there.

Ace: That and more frequent deployment of Bosa as a passing down DT are keeping his numbers down, as best I can tell.

Brian: I keep harping on this as well, but Shannon Brooks looks really damn good when Minnesota remembers to hand it to him.

Ace: We haven’t mentioned Akrum Wadley yet, which seems like an oversight. For some reason Iowa won’t hand it to him more often even though he’s averaging 7.4 YPC.

BiSB: Iowa has faced an AWFUL set of run defenses though.

Ace: Sure, but he’s still looked the part, too. His long runs don’t come off as flukes.

Seth: Even on the deepest DL in Michigan history Bryan Mone will have his time to shine. Glasgow will get to rest a bit more, and Indiana and Ohio State will offer 25-50 more snaps per game than Michigan's had to face yet.

Iowa also has a slot smurf, Riley McCarron, whom they have to throw to now, despite GERG Jones sharing Al Borges's disdain for such.

Somehow this guy developed superior route-running skills, something I haven't seen from an Iowa receiver since they fired Soup Campbell.

Adam: Noah Brown seems a likely candidate to me. His YPT (8.9) could be better, but his 66.7% catch rate is really good. He looks the part, at least, even if he did have inexplicably bad games against Rutgers and Indiana before bouncing back a bit against Wisconsin.

Seth: I figured the 4-TD game against Oklahoma counts as breaking out. Ohio State receivers will never put up stats because Urban Meyer hates receivers. And puppies. And your sweet old grandma. Never play for Urban Meyer, kids.

-------------------------------------------------

6. What's up with with Iowa and MSU? Do we still like the 18 guys we drafted from last year's B1G Championship Game foes?

Ace: We clearly don’t. Our midseason all-B1G teams feature two players combined from the two schools: Malik McDowell, who only made Adam’s team, and George Kittle. Josiah Price got one honorable mention vote.

Seth: I like McDowell—it's not his fault he's a consensus Top 10 draft pick when Matt Godin and Jake Replogle are seniors.

Ace: He’s been good, but he’s also had some bizarre moments, perhaps as a result of trying to do everything on a D-line lacking other playmakers. He had a play against Indiana, if I remember correctly, where he jumped two full gaps out of his lane and gave up a huge run as a result.

Seth: I looked at that play, and thought that was an RPS thing. State was having him read run/pass and do that crazy loop if he read pass; Indiana hit him with a delayed handoff.

Adam: I'm happy with Price, but he's also the only guy I took from either team. I was afraid of taking most of their dudes with the exception of TEs.

Seth: Beathard has fallen off considerably. He was locked in on VandeBerg early in the season and since he lost that he's been basically Speight with better legs. I should mention my expectation for him was at least giving Barrett a good run for best QB in the conference.

Ace: Yeah, I had similar expectations. Now, given the performances of some of the more unheralded Big Ten QBs, I regret that pick quite a bit. I’m happy with Kittle and Jewell, my two other Hawkeyes, and I was lucky enough to avoid drafting any Spartans until late. Even then, the Copeland-Kieler-Cooper trio has been disappointing.

Seth: I fell into the Riley Bullough trap. He missed some time and TV announcers et al. still treat him like he's Max Except Fast, but I probably overrated him from his performance against Michigan last year when I drafted him, and he's had the same problems tackling in space and biting on play-action.

Mostly I think it's we found flaws on these teams that opponents have exploited. State's offensive line was a predictable disaster even before they bumped Allen out of center for Kieler. Demetrius Cox had a game where he gave up completions on 8/9 throws his way, and the 9th was a gifted interception that he dropped. Iowa's other safety is a similar problem for them, and Jaleel Johnson gets as little help from his fellow DL as McDowell.

-------------------------------------------------

7. Replace one of your players with an Indiana defender. Is your team better?

Ace: Tegray Scales for Brandon Bell. Yes.

Adam: Tegray Scales for Jason Cabinda. Yes.

Seth: Tegray Scales for Nyeem Wartman-White. Yes, though there are a lot of very good linebackers I’d take him over besides those interred at Dead Linebacker U.

We also should mention their CBs:

The Hoosiers secondary held star QB J.T. Barrett to just 93 passing yards on the day and has two solid coverage corners in Rashard Fant and A’Shon Riggins, both of which have allowed a QB rating of less than 45.0 into their coverage this season.

I wouldn't take them over either of my Iowa cornerbacks, nor my nickel Delano Hill, but I'd lift Bullough for one of these corners. Fant is a known quantity but Riggins is a true freshman who stuck to his commitment despite Wisconsin and Iowa State coming on late. Given what he's replacing, and given the DL don't generate much pass rush, Riggins is probably the number one reason their defense has improved this much.

8. Who wins?

[time elapses]

Ace: Fine, if nobody else wants to answer: it’s me.

[more time elapses]

Wow, I kinda expected some pushback, but I guess not.

David: Ace wins. By default, apparently...but still a win!

Ace: Thanks, David.

Brian: If my offensive line wasn't a total shambles I'd argue. But it is.

Seth: The clear winner is Peppers.

Adam: If I wasn't the two-time undisputed Training Room Champion I'd argue, but alas. Ace won. He gambled often on Buckeyes and Spartans, and the OSU ones have paid off handsomely. Oh yeah, Peppers and Barkley and Glasgow and Replogle help, too.

Seth: As usual it comes down to Seth vs. Ace. Brian had the best defense but his offense is terrible. Adam has injuries, some OL holes, and Michigan's quarterback situation. I've got a ridiculously good offense, and the best players at the two most important positions: left tackle and quarterback. But my defense is coming back from some injuries in the front seven. On the other hand, I've got no bad players, while Ace is carrying three Spartans, including Copeland at CB. If Beathard doesn't improve, that also puts a hard cap on his defense. OTOOH: Peppers.

Like the Big Ten itself, Draftageddon won't be decided until the two great powers meet at the end of November.

Your All-B1G team so far:

Click to make full size.