This Week's Obsession: Midseason Roundtable Espectaculo

So far the train’s on time. [Bryan Fuller]

As is tradition, we go long for the midpoint.

The Questions:

1. Most pleasant surprise?
2. Biggest downer?
3. Most improved player?
4. Guy who will emerge in the second half of the season?
5. Expectations relative to preseason outlook?
6. Biggest surprise in the conference?
7. Ditto, except national?
8. Predict three stats, individual or team, that will be by year's end.

The Responses:

1. Most pleasant surprise?

Linebackers have not been a problem [Bryan Fuller]

Adam: The linebackers. What seemed like a weak point heading into the season has been anything but a liability. Ben Gedeon and Mike McCray have been great in the run game and good in coverage, and their athleticism has not gone unnoticed by us or by the stat sheet; Gedeon's second on the team with 7.5 TFLs and has 3.0 sacks, while McCray has 4.5 TFLs, 2.5 sacks, and 3 PBUs. Peppers has been generating earnest Heisman hype this week in part because of his 32 tackles, 10 TFLs, and 2.5 sacks (and also because he's so good that his head coach has to go back to the early 20th century to find a comparable athlete), and including him with the linebackers leaves a position group sans concerns.

Seth: Agree on Ben Gedeon and Mike McCray. Also it's fun to have blitzing from that position again: Adam mentioned that Gedeon already has 7.5 TFLs—that means he’s on pace to beat the 14 that Bolden (6.5), Morgan (2), and Ross (5.5) had combined in 2015.

David:Karan Higdon. He got like 5-10 snaps last year, looked ok-ish, then disappeared. With Walker and Evans coming in (and potentially other big names in 2017), I was wondering if he would get passed by. NOPE!

Brian: Matt Godin. He got lucky with some injury issues for Hurst and Mone but both guys are back now and Godin's playing time isn't budging. He's been productive beyond expectations, and here I should remind you that I was advocating for a role for him in the season preview since he's always been a solid... SDE.

That he's playing DT and mostly holding up to double teams is a leap in performance I could not project. Hurst has been the more dynamic player and I do expect him to suck up more snaps as the season goes on, but Godin may have even played himself into late-round NFL drat chatter.

Ace: I’ll go with the most Harbaugh answer here and say Khalid Hill. Some of what he’s done has been expected; we knew coming out of high school that he was a skilled receiver, and that’s translated over to fullback, where he’s made a habit of picking throws off his shoestrings in the flat and still turning upfield for extra yardage. The surprising parts have been his blocking, which has been solid between the tackles and often spectacular in the open field, and his knack for converting goal-to-go situations. I mean, he dubbed himself the Hammering Panda, and we’re going to not only let the self-nicknaming slide—we’re running with it ourselves.

[Hit THE JUMP for the other seven]

2. Biggest downer?

Harbaughiffication: ongoing. [Fuller]

Adam: Grant Newsome's injury. Just when it looked like he was hitting his stride he goes down, and just minutes shy of the cutoff for a medshirt, too.

Maybe this was asking too much. [Fuller]

Seth: Losing Newsome, as Adam said, 20 minutes after the cutoff for a medshirt. Last summer we wrote how the preseason set up well to get Newsome up to speed by the time he's needed. He was juuuust getting there, and now he's needed. Bushell-Beatty belongs in the pleasant surprise category above, however Michigan has yet to face several Watt-like objects, starting with Illinois's Dawuane Smoot and Carroll Phillips.

Since that’s taken, I’ll mention the field goals. I don’t know what possessed us to believe a top-notch punter and kickoff specialist could handle kicking duties too, but putting all of that on Kenny Allen’s foot was apparently incorrect.

David: I think it probably has to be Wilton Speight. He hasn't been consistent all season and a lot of that is independent of opponent play. Obviously, we've seen Harbaugh improve many a QB...here's hoping the light goes on in the 2nd half!

Brian: Newsome's injury is correct. I'd also put in a shout for Mason Cole's performance so far this year. He hasn't been bad. Neither has he been particularly good, and while he drew some tough matchups against 3-4 teams that aren't really his wheelhouse I was expecting he'd be a lot better than middling.

Ace:Newsome’s injury is the answer, but the season-ending injury to Jeremy Clark could have bigger ramifications than we’ve seen so far. Michigan has a great cornerback duo in Jourdan Lewis and Channing Stribling, but they've played a MANBALL outfit and the worst Power 5 team in the country since Clark’s injury—we’ve yet to see that extra defensive back face a major test.

3. Most improved player?

Adam: Chase Winovich. One thing that's always stuck with me is when Winovich told Ace at media day that he was unsure of last season's position switch at first because his name is Chase, not Block. He's finally back to chasing, and he's doing a good job of it. This is a guy who has gone from linebacker to tight end to defensive end and has actually managed to get snaps on a defensive line that might be the deepest in Michigan history. Sure, he's more of a pass rusher than anything else right now and still has things to work on against the run, but there's every reason for him to not be on the field right now and yet he's getting non-garbage time snaps.

Winovich isn’t close to Taco, but neither has he been close to bad. [Eric Upchurch]

David: Ben Gedeon. We were all ok with what we thought he would bring this season. But his gap-thumping and sideline to sideline range have been very much improved. WHY U NO REDSHIRT IN 2013?!?!?!?!

Seth: It's a year later than we predicted, but most welcome that Kyle Kalis is putting together an excellent senior season. Repeatedly wishing he'd had Drevno coaching him the three years prior was going to stick in Michigan hearts anyway; at least now it can be the best possible sore spot.

Brian: I assume that Ben Gedeon's lack of playing time was due to Joe Bolden's ability to practice like a star and bamboozle coaches as a result. So my answer here is also Kyle Kalis, who's cut the mental mistakes out of his game almost entirely and is finally applying considerable force to opponents without offering up a compensatory slate of TFLs allowed. His career goes in the AJ Williams bin, wherein we wonder what Player X would have looked like if he'd had four years of Harbaugh instead of just one or two.

Ace: Since Kalis and Gedeon have already been mentioned a couple times, I’ll note that Channing Stribling learning to stay in phase and becoming one of the conference’s—if not the country’s—best cover corners has been pretty nice, too.

4. Guy who will emerge in the second half of the season?

Adam: Rashan Gary. He's gotten better every week, and by the end of the season he'll be preternaturally good. Not for a freshman, for a football player.

David: Devin Asiasi. His blocking is really drawing attention and it seems like his playing time is increasing as that goes. As M starts playing slightly tougher opponents, I expect Asiasi to get some more snaps as he holds up well as a run-blocker and will become a matchup nightmare once he is inserted in a few more pass packages.

Seth: I'm doubling down on my preseason prediction that Bryan Mone’s name will get back on those we count off when panegyrizing the 2016 defensive line. Rutgers doesn’t count, and Mone got just 7 snaps against Wisconsin, but that game had only 53 to go around. Ohio State and Indiana will double that, and that's when the backups will shine. Remember this guy started at 3-tech before his injury because Michigan wanted to get him on the field so bad. More Mone means a fresher Glasgow, and Hurst getting to stick to 3-tech. Here’s a Mone-inclusive depth chart again just because:

Brian: Devin Asiasi has already moved ahead of TJ Wheatley as the team's top blocking tight end, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him maintain his playing time after Ian Bunting's return from injury. He moves people. Coming out of high school his coach gushed and gushed about his blocking ability, and he's apparently right. He's smart, agile, and powerful, and since his redirect blocks often see him encounter a DB we get to see him plow a field repeatedly. It's fun.

Asiasi's had a number of assignment issues so far, which is to be expected from a true freshman. He seems to be reducing those errors, and as the season goes along his blocking ability will only increase relative to his competitors.

Ace:Wilton Speight. Yes, he’s already the starter, but while he’s not off to a Early Rudock-level bad start, there have been some alarming moments (and alarming games) in the first half of the season. We saw what kind of improvement Harbaugh managed to get out of Rudock, a fifth-year senior, last season. Even if the magnitude isn’t as great, a similar breakout from Speight is by no means out of the question, and it would take the ceiling off of this team. (A ceiling which is already very high, I should add.)

5. Expectations relative to preseason outlook?

loomin' [Bryan Fuller]

Adam: I predicted that Michigan would finish the season undefeated, so everything's on track.

David: Right on schedule. They took care of business through the home part of the schedule. I think most people figured M would be 6-0 entering the Bye Week. There are still a few kinks in the passing game, but all else seems to being running full steam ahead.

Seth: Lowered. I concluded HTTV this year by predicting 14-0 and promised we'd make another post-year HTTV if that happened. At that time I was fairly confident this team could get to Columbus undefeated, and that seems on track. What's changed is Ohio State. I expected they would struggle more with their offensive line problems and the casting about for a secondary that could play. Now it appears that defense is better than last year's (the one with Joey Bosa), and I've learned never to doubt an Urban OL again. In August was 60% sure of a win; now that’s flipped.

Brian: I predicted 12-0 on the back of an elite defense and "eh, it's fine" QB play, so the overall picture is still the same. I underrated the linebackers and didn't expect the RB situation to turn into a four-way free-for-all. The biggest changes from my preseason projection is not Michigan itself but Ohio State, which has weathered a ton of departures without much trouble. I thought Iowa and MSU were paper tigers, but I also thought The Game would feature Michigan against a team with a couple losses.

Ace: The offense is as expected. The defense, for all we thought it would be heading into the season, has managed to exceed any reasonable expectation and go straight to “on track to be historically good."

6. Biggest surprise in the conference?

David: Indiana. I think they're...good? They beat MSU, hung tight with OSU, and are worrying M fans a little more than they expected at the beginning of the season. They are 3-2 (could easily be 4-1 if Lagow had not completed 5 passes to Wake Forest) and there could be 5 more wins on that schedule. Indiana at...8-4? Maybe...3rd in B10E??

Adam: Michigan State's struggles. On paper it looked like their offensive line was iffy, their secondary returned a bunch of guys who weren't very good, their D-line had one good player and nothing else, and their starting quarterback's battle-testedness came in one of the weirdest games in recent memory as throwing more than a dozen times wasn't a risk worth taking. To think that all of the things that looked bad on paper would look bad on the field would've required a prognosticator wholly unfamiliar with college football from 2008 to 2015. There's little doubt in my mind that they'll look like a different team against Michigan, but State's aforementioned issues remain unresolved, and there's no reason to expect resolution over the next six games.

Perhaps we gave them too much Respekt? [Upchurch]

Seth: Indiana's defense is better than their offense.

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yes.

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Okay, now that we're all settled in our bunkers, let's figure out when is the last time that happened. You could make the case for 2003 under Gerry DiNardo. That defense--97th in scoring, 101st in yards--was just as putrid as any other Indiana defense; it's just that Matt LoVecchio and BenJarvus Green-Ellis were even worse. I think you have to go back to 1993 under Bill Mallory. I was 13 and didn't watch non-Michigan games because I had Super Nintendo. But I'm pretty sure the '93 team didn't have Dan Feeney or Nick Westbrook.

Brian: This could be Wisconsin but given the way the season's played out they look like they're getting a lot of credit for wins over teams that aren't that good. The 30-6 MSU blowout was more like 14-6 with MSU shooting itself in the foot, and given MSU's other games this year... eh.

Meanwhile MSU being total butt is a genuine surprise. I thought they'd be significantly worse than last year given their departures. I did not think S&P+ would be projecting them to miss a bowl after BYU ran them over. While MSU's had a rabbit's foot in their possession the last few years the correction was not supposed to be this harsh.

Ace:Penn State being good-ish. If I’m being honest, I expected James Franklin to flame out in spectacular fashion. While that looked to be the case when they played Michigan, the hiring of Joe Moorhead at offensive coordinator has really turned their offense around, and they’ve risen to #17 on S&P+ after dismantling a surprisingly decent Maryland squad.

But, yeah, the right answer is MSU. I’ll leave this here.

7. Ditto, except national?

Seth: If Harbaugh has Michigan back to Moeller-level, Chris Petersen has Washington all the way back to those teams Mo played in Pasadena. In just the last two weeks they might have ended the dynasties that Harbaugh and Chip Kelly left in the Pac 12 North. Jake Browning is just a true sophomore and yet the most efficient passer in college football.

While I'm out on the West Coast I should add that UCLA being this bad kind of defied my expectations, given the level Mora recruits at and the fact that DC Tom Bradley has had success everywhere else. Really looking forward to Colorado beating them.

Lamar Jackson made FSU’s defense look silly, and made us all forget about Deshaun Watson. [Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire]

David: Louisville. So, I thought they'd be better and probably pretty good. But they kicked the face of off FSU and probably should have won at Clemson if the WR had known were the first down line was (and cut inside instead of volunteering to go OOB). That would probably be the Playoff. Instead, they could easily go 11-1/10-2 and head back to a BCS game. I was tempted to say Washington, but they have the best coach in the P12...it was only a matter of time.

Adam: Lamar Jackson. Here's a guy who was barely on the periphery of Heisman conversation before the season started who is now a legitimate contender, if not the leader, for the trophy. He's posted triple-digit passing and rushing numbers in every game save Marshall, where he had just 62 rushing yards...and 417 passing yards. He's averaging 8.83 yards per play, has 14 passing TDs and 4 interceptions, as well as a ludicrous 14 rushing touchdowns; if anyone projected numbers like that based only on his bowl performance, I, for one, welcome our new prescient Heisman-handicapping overlord.

Brian: Oregon might be over. I have no idea how Louisville gets a guy like Lamar Jackson and Oregon, the premiere spread program of the last 20 years, is choosing between their second consecutive FCS transfer and a freshman... a freshman pocket passer! What are you doing? What in the actual hell are you doing, Oregon? Since Mark Helfrich was the OC before he was the head coach virtually all of this falls on his head.

Meanwhile on the other side of the ball they're a wreck for the second consecutive year. I thought Brady Hoke wasn't the worst idea. He both inherited a complete mess and told the press it they were a "long way from being any sort of defense," which turns out to be correct. Whether he can make them into any sort of defense is an open question.
Oregon sucks. They might suck for a bit here since spread stuff has been normalized in CFB and they've never been much of a recruiting power. The Duck era in the Pac-12 feels over.

Ace: We’ve made it this far without mentioning that Notre Dame fired their defensive coordinator before midpoint of the season, then lost a game on the fringes of a hurricane because Brian Kelly insisted on running every play from the shotgun—and then he blamed the center. They’re 2-4, have about a 50/50 shot of finishing with a losing record, and could very well clean house. I thought their Kizer-led offense would be able to overcome some issues on the other side of the ball; that has not come to pass.

8. Predict three stats, individual or team, that will be by year's end.

David:

• Michigan's defense continues strong and finishes #1 in S&P
• Jabrill Peppers scores double digit TDs
• M has 4 RBs top 600 rushing yards

BONUS: -Khalid Hill will finish with the team lead in TDs scored.

Panda hammer touchdown vulture panda [Fuller]

Adam:

• Opponents' Success Rate will be 23% or lower
• Michigan will rank first nationally in adjusted sack rate
• Taco Charlton finishes with 10 sacks

Seth:

• Jabrill Peppers will lead the nation in TFLs (he's currently 5th)
• Speight won't have a higher QB rating than Rudock's 2015 (he does now)
• Harbaugh will prepare a motion-TE inverted veer option play against Maryland that goes for 78 yards.

Brian:

• Michigan has the #1 D in yards per play, S&P+, and FEI. They are the top D in the history of the fancystats. (IE, since ~2007)
• Jabrill Peppers ends up with 500 rushing yards to go with his various defensive stats.
• Nobody finishes with double-digit sacks because there's too much rotation and too many guys racking up stats. Michigan leads the country in adjusted sack rate.

Ace:

• As Wilton Speight improves, Jehu Chesson has a similar second-half surge to last year and finishes with ~800 receiving yards (he’s at 231 right now).
• Michigan finishes first in havoc rate by a ludicrous margin.
• The number in the loss column remains at zero heading into the postseason.