[Bryan Fuller]
The Question:
Biggest risk of not reaching The Game undefeated? Can be opponent or team issue
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The Responses:
Seth: My answers are low-score entropy, and the general bloodimindedness of the Big Ten universe. When Stribling fell down those who don't remember Bo-era losses must've thought "well that's what happens when you let a worse team off the hook." Those of us who do thought "Oh no, not again."
Randomness is the enemy of all favorites. When you're an offensive juggernaut with an okay defense, you worry about an injury to your dervish quarterback, conditions that take away something the defense couldn't, and staying on pace. When you're a defensive juggernaut with an okay offense, you worry about the one play.
We were given a treatment for the latter against Wisconsin. When facing a real defense, Michigan's just-okay offense will get bogged down. Michigan can mitigate the inability to kick a 40-yarder with better 4th down strategy, but this feeds the chaos engine.
Iowa brought back most of a great defense and could put it back together at night in Kinnick. Dantonio State will always play its best against Michigan. Indiana is probably better than either of those two and would be utterly terrifying if their chaos seed was just that rather than a curse. And out there on the Big Ten seas lurk the John O'Neill officiating crew, sworn enemies oddsmakers, favorites and ever calling holding unless it didn't happen, and capable of shifting an expected score by 28 points on the regular. When the deck is stacked in your favor, chaos is the enemy
[After THE JUMP: Respekt is earned.]
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| Late-season Speight needs to arrive before the potentially season-ruining road matches. [photo: Fuller] |
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Ace: My biggest concern at this point is Wilton Speight having a turnover-heavy game, especially if the offensive line starts allowing more pressure to get through after Grant Newsome’s injury. Mason Cole moving to left tackle is on the table at this point, and while that’d shore up that spot, it could cause issues with communication on the line—and Michigan has already allowed some instant pressures by blowing blitz pickups. In large part for that reason, I’m hoping Juwann Bushell-Beatty is the answer at LT for the rest of the year.
It’s more about Speight, though. While he only has the two interceptions on the season, he could easily have a few more, and in the last few games he’s had issues with accuracy, decision-making, or both. His knack for extending plays while under pressure has been almost entirely a positive, but it’s also something that could get him into trouble, too. I’m not expecting him to throw away a game—I too saw Jake Rudock’s improvement last year, after all—but it’s also hard to rule it out as a possibility after the last few weeks.
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Adam: I've been looking through Michigan's remaining opponents and their S&P+ rankings in different categories (rushing, passing, etc.) on both sides of the ball, and there isn't a team left that I think has a distinct advantage over Michigan in any one area until M rolls into Columbus. At this point, the thing that worries me the most about Michigan not reaching that game with everything on the line (other than having everything on the line always) is depth at corner.
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| Brandon Watson has been shaky thus far. And thus far the freshmen haven’t passed him. [photo: Eric Upchurch] |
With Jeremy Clark done for the year, Michigan looks to be one injury away from having an exploitable pass defense. Jourdan Lewis and Channing Stribling were both excellent against Wisconsin; Wisconsin naturally went away from the reigning All-American time after time and found that Stribling could play like one, too. If one of those two were to miss extended time, that puts Brandon Watson in their place. Or David Long. Or Lavert Hill. Or...I don't know, Tyree Kinnel?
Those are guys who have fared relatively well in limited playing time, but they've seen fewer snaps as the level of competition has increased for a reason. Playing man coverage all the time is hard (just look at the safeties), and it's even harder to play press on almost every snap. If one of the aforementioned defensive backs is forced into extended playing time he'll have to learn on the fly, and while he's learning there might as well be a blinking neon "open 24 hrs" sign over his head until proven otherwise.
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David: Well, as great as the season has gone so far, there are some issues that could still arise. We've talked about Speight and the offensive line, especially after the awful injury to Newsome. JBB? I guess we'll see. Allen has been erratic, despite being robust on punts and kickoffs.
But other problems solved themselves. The linebacking has become a strength. The competition has dropped of a lot more than previously assumed. Bad things can happen to anybody, including the opponents.
I guess what worries me the most goes back to the UCF game: Getting Outhit.
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Brian: It's still Michigan State. You know Dantonio will come into that game with an entirely different playbook. It shouldn't matter since MSU is currently rotating Kodi Kieler through every line spot in an effort to find a combination of OL with a greater tensile strength than a wet piece of paper and Michigan has two defensive lines that would be amongst the best in the conference. It still might, because it's not like MSU has anything else to do this season.
It's not too hard to see Michigan's rickety offense bogging down against a good defense, and MSU's is still good as long as McDowell is available, and then you can get into the usual turnover and special team disasters that lead to upsets. Michigan's had a ton of the latter this year.