Preview: Wisconsin 2016

Essentials

Overview

Wisconsin is in an odd place on Michigan's schedule, as this is the first time I can remember that there's a nonconference game after the start of—

what's that now
they are?
how many damn teams does this conference have now

Anyway. The Certainly Part Of The Big Ten Wisconsin Badgers come to Michigan Stadium for the first time since people rode dinosaurs to the discotheque. They're coming off two hot-hot-hot wins over Certainly Top Ten Teams LSU and Michigan State. They're riding high with a legitimately terrifying defense and... an offense. That's not bad, per se. It's good for one 17 play touchdown drive a game. Anyway, the defense!

Run Offense vs Wisconsin

Sheehy(94) is the star on the line

The loss of star OLB Vince Biegel is a huge blow to the Badgers. Biegel and fellow OLB TJ Watt are far and away Wisconsin's best defensive players; without him it seems like Wisconsin will move Jack Cichy, he of the three straight sacks in the bowl game, to OLB and bring in one of the backup ILBs they're already rotating.

That shift seriously dents what is probably the best linebacker corps in the nation. Wisconsin runs a 3-4, so there are four of them; PFF has all of them +2.5 or better, with Biegel at +7.4 and Watt at +8.3. UW's given four other LBs significant snaps so far this year, so Biegel's replacement won't be fresh off the turnip truck. Whoever it is will be a massive downgrade.

As far as the run game goes, Michigan has to be looking at planet-sized nose tackle Olive Sagapolu with some concern after struggling against Colorado's Josh Tupou. Ace doesn't think it'll be a thing, though:

Up front, Sheehy was easily the most impressive lineman. NT Olive Sagapolu is a massive 340 pounds, but I don't think he'll give Mason Cole nearly as much trouble as Colorado's immovable NT Josh Tupou. Sagapolu didn't hold up too well to double-teams; LJ Scott didn't have much opportunity to establish himself because of the score, but when he had success it came right up the gut:

That was also a rare instance of Sheehy getting handled one-on-one. The other starting DE, Chikwe Obasih, is undersized for a 3-4 at 267 pounds and looked it for much of this game. Even for a 3-4 DE, his production is really lacking—no tackles in this game, only three (two solo) on the year—and he was the lineman most easily taken on and moved out of his lane by single blocking.

Connor Sheehy is a very legit 3-4 DE, albeit a guy who offers nothing rushing the passer. The other two guys are just kind of there.

Despite this, Wisconsin battered MSU into meek submission and held Leonard Damn Fournette in relative check. This is because linebackers, mostly. TJ Watt is a fullback-destroying missile, and everyone in that unit grades out positively.

Wisconsin comes up against a Michigan run offense that got right in a big way against Penn State, with four running backs all ripping off big chunk runs en route to over 300 yards. Issues abounded before that, however, and promise to crop up once again now that Michigan is playing a team with (mostly) first teamers in the front seven. Previous versions of the Michigan run offense under Harbaugh have taken one step back for every one forward. Consistent production this Saturday would be a game-changer for season expectations, but seems unlikely. Michigan will get some yards. Michigan will get stuffed more than they care to.

Wild card: Jabrill Peppers. With Noah Furbush back and Wisconsin inclined to run on first down this is a game where you can buy Peppers a bunch of offensive snaps by running an actual 4-3 on some downs. Even if they do keep him out there all the time, this is a game where 8-10 Peppers touches could contain in them the seed of a critical touchdown.

KEY MATCHUP: MASON COLE versus OLIVE SAGAPOLU and MICHIGAN'S OL IN GENERAL against CHIP AND RELEASE ON ZONE RUNS. This is kind of the same thing. Michigan would like to mitigate the big damn nose tackle. Mason Cole had major issues against Tupou and needs to do better against a not as good version, and the line as a whole needs to actually hit guys before releasing to the second level when they run zone stuff.

[Hit THE JUMP for CERTAINLY AN OFFENSE]

Pass Offense vs Wisconsin

Watt, Wisconsin, repeat

This will be all about protecting Wilton Speight and what happens when Michigan doesn't. Biegel's absence will be hugely helpful:

Vince Biegel of @BadgerFootball has created 18 QB pressures on 83 pass-rush snaps. Top pass rush productivity among Big Ten edge defenders. pic.twitter.com/Vq9tHX4uCL

— PFF College Football (@PFF_College) September 26, 2016

With Biegel out, Watt and rotation DL Alec James are the only Badgers with positive pass rush grades per PFF. That's a huge dent in their productivity, one that Wisconsin will hope to replace by getting more aggressive with Cichy. Survey says: possible but relatively unknown. Cichy's three sacks against USC were impressive but this year he's got a slightly negative rush grade; he's mostly made his hay with excellent coverage and good run D.

MSU was baffled by the vast array of blitzes Wisconsin deployed from their 3-4, and Michigan has shown a certain weakness in that department as well. They're going to get through on a semi-regular basis, and Michigan has to hope that Speight is able to continue his wily ways to escape pressure and get checkdown yards. The alternative is a replay of the sack-strip-fumble-TD against Colorado and is Michigan's most obvious path to defeat. A Michigan team that gets down early because of turnovers created by pass rush and has to come back with a jittery and possibly wounded Speight is in tough.

The Wisconsin secondary has graded out well so far per PFF, with four of five major contributors positive. Safety D'Cota Dixon is the exception mostly thanks to some run issues. The corner trio of Sojourn Shelton, Derrick Tindal, and Lubern Figaro have all been good in coverage. Opponent caveats do apply, but LSU's WRs are excellent if completely underutilized.

Michigan's end of this is... fine, I guess. Speight bounced back from a bad Colorado game to be efficient, if worryingly inaccurate, against Penn State. Michigan's receiver trio has been good so far, with the notable exception of an uninvolved Jehu Chesson. Pass protection has been mostly fine except for some blitz issues and Colorado getting after Grant Newsome.

KEY MATCHUP: GRANT NEWSOME versus TJ WATT. Watt's still a beast and while Michigan can expect him to come most of the time with Biegel out, he's good enough to win despite being picked up. Newsome meanwhile had his hiccups against Colorado and will be tested repeatedly by not only Watt but a truckload of other guys.

Run Defense vs Wisconsin

Ramcyzk is PFF top ranked tackle

We have a pretty good idea what happens when Wisconsin goes up against a good defense. LSU is #7 in S&P+; MSU is #21. In both those games Wisconsin ran about 60% of the time, acquired just over 300 yards, and scored ~14 points with their offense*. Michigan is #2 in S&P+.

As far as the ground game goes, much depends on the health of the Wisconsin line. Jon Dietzen and Micah Kapoi are questionable for Saturday per the official Wisconsin injury report. If neither can go the line will be the same as it was against MSU. That means sophomore Brett Connors at center, and the untimely demise of same. Ace:

On multiple occasions, Connors moved to the second level without providing a chip on a DT who one of the guards could not reach without help; this is something Brian has brought up when talking about Kyle Kalis's issues in the past, and it's a great way to cede a TFL. He'd also had a couple flat-out whiffs on DTs lined up right over him.

He was worse as a pass-blocker.

Wisconsin has had awful injury luck on the offensive line, with a ton of guys washing out of the program altogether. They've just about put together an effective starting five, but the dropoff after the starters is steep.

Michigan will still get challenged either way. They've gone up against four straight spread teams to start the year. Wisconsin is a hard shift in the other direction. It's not one that'll shock Michigan, which goes up against manball every day in practice, but their approach so far this year has been to run a 4-2-5 defense with Jabrill Peppers as a SAM linebacker. The spreads have not tested that.

Meanwhile, PFF has LT Ryan Ramczyk as their #1 OT in the country both on the ground and overall. Michael Dieter (+6.3) and Beau Benzschawel also grade out(+4.3) very well. Wisconsin has four tight ends who play and while none of them are maulers they are all massive steps up from Mike Gesicki. Troy Fumagalli has been omnipresent when healthy and is +1. That's a wee bit different than Gesicki's freshman Funchess impression. Like Michigan, the Badgers rotate fullbacks, and PFF likes both. This unit is a huge step up from anyone Michigan's seen so far this year.

However, there are a couple of weak points. RT Jacob Maxwell's grading out negatively against both run and pass, and that last spot has been an issue no matter who mans it. Wisconsin will find it hard to hide those trouble spots against a Michigan defensive front that has stars across it and a set of incredibly active defensive tackles—both Ryan and Matt Godin have sideline to sideline range, as strange as that is to say. PFF also doesn't think much of any of Wisconsin's backs.

The results so far this year have been decidedly mediocre, with the weak points overwhelming the positives. Corey Clement had a 22-yard run against MSU and averaged 1.5 YPC on his other 22 caries. With Clement sidelined against Georgia State, three Wisconsin backs combined to average 3.8 YPC on 42 carries. UW managed a respectable day against LSU and Dare Ogunbowale had a solid per-carry average against MSU. Other than that and a hamblasting of Akron it's been kind of grim.

While there's significant uncertainty because Michigan hasn't played a team like this, yet, Wisconsin's track record suggests that they won't be doing much against this Michigan front. All it takes is one busted block to submarine most plays, and no matter where the sore spots are along the Wisconsin front, Michigan has a dude ready to exploit them. With Wisconsin lacking much big-play capability—they're 71st in 10+ yard runs, 84th in 20+, and 95th in 30+—they're not likely to have a breakout run that gets their stats up to okay despite the slog it'll be most of the day.

*[Wisconsin had a fumble return TD and a five yard TD drive off a dropped punt snap against MSU. They also had a couple of short field goal drives against LSU set up by an LSU fumble and a failed fourth-and-one conversion.]

KEY MATCHUP: TACO CHARLTON and RASHAN GARY against POWER O. Gonna see a lot of it since asking the iffy bits of the UW line to zone is asking for a Glasgow party in the backfield. Wormley will be fine. Charlton and Gary—I'm guessing Winovich is limited to passing downs in this one—are bigger question marks. I mean, they'll probably be fine. But if there's a weak spot on the DL it's those guys holding up to double team hammerings.

Pass Defense vs Wisconsin

Hornibrook is new enough that most shots are from practice

It's exceedingly rare for anyone who's already beaten a top ten team to voluntarily switch quarterbacks, but that's what Wisconsin did midway through their struggle against Georgia State. Bart Houston, the rootin'-est, tootin'-est quarterback east of the Pecos river, exited with 18 attempts and just 91 passing yards; redshirt freshman Alex Hornibrook entered, threw for ten yards an attempt, and has seemingly grabbed the job for good.

Hornibrook was shepherded through the MSU matchup, throwing mostly on third down and frequently at Demetrious Cox. Almost half of his completions came against Michigan State's boat anchor at safety; Hornibrook went 7/8 on attempts at him. The eighth was an interception that Cox dropped. Wisconsin passed on just 6 of 22 first downs.

Hornibrook tended to get his work done by feathering in spooky accurate passes to mostly covered receivers:

This is good. It could turn bad in a hurry if throws like this completion...

...end up being beginner's luck rather than the dawning of an heir to Tom Brady. Also it must be stated that MSU's secondary is still heavily in question; all it took for ND to surge back in their game against the Spartans was constant throwing on every down.

Wisconsin leans heavily on its top three receivers. Those are Fumagalli, the tight end, and wide receivers Robert Wheelwright and Jazz Peavy. Wheelwright is a bulky 6'3" guy with downfield jump-ball abilities but not a ton of ability to separate. Peavy is a smaller, quicker guy. He's had a few drops and is only bringing in 52% of his targets; he's a bit boom or bust. The other two have reliable hands, especially Fumagalli.

Michigan's pass defense has been impregnable aside from a bunch of slants Colorado hit. This is a different situation with a crowded middle of the field and Jourdan Lewis, so those issues are not likely to recur. One thing that may translate for UW as the Michigan linebacker level overreacting to play action. It's easy to see Fumagalli popping open repeatedly for chunks.

Other than that each dropback will be a calculated risk. Wisconsin's been middling at protecting their QB; Michigan is the top havoc rate defense in the country; Hornibrook is a redshirt freshman going up against a Don Brown defense that will have guys pop up out of nowhere.

Weird things happen and Michigan has been bust-prone so far this season, but the default actions here are going to be successful chunk plays to Fumagalli on play action and heavily contested, possibly dangerous throws from a quarterback under siege on frequent passing downs.

KEY MATCHUP: DELANO HILL, JABRILL PEPPERS, and DYMONTE THOMAS versus FUMAGALLI SHORT and PEAVY LONG. Peavy's their best chance at a field-flipping play and Fumagalli's their best shot at a third down conversion. Both of those come down to the safeties not busting assignments.

Special Teams

The other big injury news this week was Wisconsin kicker Rafael Gaglianone getting knocked out for the season. He also missed last week's game; senior walk-on Alex Endicott replaced him. Endicott missed an extra point and hit his first FGA of his career, a 41-yarder hit in the third quarter with Wisconsin already up 20-6. While that was straight down the middle, Wisconsin seemed to be trying to avoid field goals. (Alternative explanation: Paul Chryst is good at fourth down decisions.)

The rest of Wisconsin's special teams have been middling. They have one 15 yard punt return and nothing else in the return game; their kickoff guy gets touchbacks 60% of the time; they've given up four returns on 13 punts, one of which Akron returned for a touchdown. Those punts are short: UW is averaging under 40 yards a punt. Ace reports that Wisconsin is a pro-style punting team. Which... dude.

Michigan's had some issues here with Kenny Allen's mysterious affliction. Michigan eschewed a bunch of long-ish field goals last week to go for it on fourth down. One of those was fourth and seven and very probably a FGA if Michigan had confidence in Allen; Harbaugh did not after watching him warm up. (Neither did your author.) He's still kicking off and punting so whatever it is can't be too bad; that's something to keep an eye on.

Michigan's punting has also been iffy. They've returned to pro-style punting themselves and gave up a couple chunk returns to Colorado. (Michigan punted once against PSU.) Lower that usual sample sizes there, but they look set to give Wisconsin a shot at a return.

The rest of Michigan's special teams have been terrific. They've blocked five kicks, gotten three huge returns from Peppers, who's averaging 23 yards a pop on punts, and given up nothing on kickoffs. 

KEY MATCHUP: JABRILL PEPPERS versus A PRO STYLE PUNTING TEAM. You guys.

Intangibles

Cheap Thrills

Worry if...

• Hornibrook is indeed the second coming of Tom Brady and continues his trend of delicately placed balls just past the outstretched hands of coverage.
• The absence of Gaglianone causes Chryst to go for the fourth downs he should go for.
• Speight gets a couple missiles to his midsection early.

Cackle with knowing glee if...

• Michigan's defensive line is in Wisconsin's base.
• The running backs repeat their PSU performance.
• Oh my God they're going to pro style punt at Jabrill Peppers

Fear/Paranoia Level: 5 (Baseline 5; +1 for Two Top Ten Wins, –1 for Against Teams Headed For 7-5, +1 for They Get After The QB, –1 for Their Injury Situation Is Deeply Unfortunate For Them, +1 for Even So This Is A Defense The Likes Of Which Michigan Has Not Seen Yet, +1 for Also They Have Many Manballers Who Are Good, –1 for QB In His Second Start Against Rampant Defense, –1 for Are You Going To Manball The Manballers?)

Desperate need to win level: 10 (Baseline 5; +1 for Wisconsin Fans Are Really Mad About Michigan For Some Reason And I Find This Annoying Since The Teams Haven't Played Since 1880, +1 for Given Big Ten Schedules I Assume That This Is For 40 Years Worth Of Bragging Rights, +1 for Some Stakes On This Season, Yup, +1 for Think Of The Internal Discussions At The Wall Street Journal, +1 for Remember That Guy Who Tried To Tear Steve Breaston's ACL? Screw That Guy!)

Loss will cause me to... shame-eat six pounds of cheese.

Win will cause me to... yell "GUESS YOU'RE NOT THE SECOND CHROMING" at Paul Chryst as he exits the field.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:

Despite the loss of Biegel I expect the Wisconsin defense to keep Michigan relatively in check. Last week offers some hope they'll be able to grind it a bit; I'll have to see it to believe that Michigan's having a genuinely good outing against a tough run defense.

Speight remains a wildcard; the UCF version of him could get picked off a few times and set Wisconsin up to score without having to drive the field. I'd be fine with a game exactly like the PSU game. I'll take inaccurate incompletions even if they result in a punt.

On the other side of the ball it should be boa constrictor time. Wisconsin struggled with an MSU defensive line that's good but not Michigan's caliber, and Michigan doesn't have a big blinking THROW AT ME sign in the secondary. Hornibrook should be under a ton of pressure and figures to have at least a few moments he reacts badly; the Wisconsin ground game won't go anywhere.

A lot of punting is on the docket, with Michigan getting more extended drives. In a game of field position, Jabrill Peppers is a huge edge over Not Jabrill Peppers, and that should lead to a comfortable win.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• Peppers takes back another punt.
• Jake Butt goes over 100 yards receiving.
• Wisconsin averages under three yards a carry.
• Michigan, 26-11.