Upon Further Review 2016: Offense vs Penn State

SPONSOR NOTES: I feel I should start talking about the other clothing items that are completely optional when you get a mortgage from Matt. Bowler hats, because who wears those anymore? T-shirts expounding bands you're embarrassed you ever liked—I bet Seth's got some Barenaked Ladies shirts he doesn't wear around the house that he can get a loan while not wearing.

In addition to being a gentleman replete with Michigan tickets, Matt is also a good man to know if you need a mortgage. It's striking that we actually get non-astroturfed comments about positive experiences with Matt not infrequently.

If you're buying a home or refinancing, he's the right guy to call.

FORMATION NOTES: Not too much other than some extra empty stuff. This was "quad tight bunch." In my world a bunch is three guys and I'll tell you if it's not.

This was "ace empty TE hide":

Newsome is in the slot with Butt your nominal left tackle.  This is obviously a stunt to get Butt open, and it worked.

PERSONNEL NOTES: The OL battle seems settled, as Braden got every snap with the first team. Early Bredeson playing time probably injury-related. Speight obviously went the whole way.

Despite the profusion of RBs getting carries, Smith still got about 60% of the snaps, with Higdon, Isaac, and Evans splitting the rest about equally. Darboh and Butt were the most frequently deployed receiver types; Chesson got exactly half the 80 snaps before the second string came in. (Remember that he missed a chunk of the game after he got dinged up on Higdon's first run.) Asiasi got 36, as Bunting went out with an injury early. Grant Perry got 25 snaps; Crawford 16, McDoom 8.

[After THE JUMP: cruelty.]

They scored a lot.

They did. The drive chart reads:

• 24 yard touchdown
• 54 yard touchdown
• 64 yard touchdown
• 32 yard turnover on downs (on a drop)
• 80 yard touchdown
• three and out
• 58 yard turnover on downs
• 80 yard touchdown
• 76 yard touchdown
• 31 yard touchdown

This was treating a power 5 opponent like it was Hawaii. The PSU LBs may be Hawaii level now, but the rest of that D should be a step up.

That touchdown drive where they tried to find out whether Penn State had a detachable jaw like a snake, though.

Yes. They found out Penn State's jaw did not detach, and then they detached it for them. By the end of it Penn State was spent, beaten down by life and also Ben Braden.

While PFF was more reserved in its evaluations I thought this was a hamblasting. Just look at this

I like ham. I might wander off and go find some. It is tradition that Penn State's coach wanders off to find ham. –James Franklin

chart?

*[Butt got +1 for running. While I'm making asides, I had Jocz at +1.5 and a route +, McKeon at –0.5, and Henderson at +1.]

That 70% is a big number given the way I grade; PFF thought Magnuson was great and Kalis good while being eh about the rest. (Although with pass protection factored in every M OL was positive, most significantly.

Biggest disagreement was on Braden, who I thought had a strong game with no blitz pickup issues and a number of blowout run blocks. He knocked some guys back. Here he pulls to a DB and gets an authoritative kickout:

He did the same to a number of linebackers:

This linebacker unit is injury-decimated, of course. Still nice to see Braden apparently full-go after an ugly start. At this point I assume his first game was injury and rust and that the generally competent guy from last year is back. There were hints of an upgrade in there as well, especially when he helped finish the Win With Cruelty drive by burying PSU's nose tackle. That was an exhausted and demoralized PSU outfit that has been vulnerable on the ground all year, so far from definitive. We'll get a much clearer view on him and the rest of the OL this weekend.

Meanwhile the rest of the group was just about as strong in my eyes. While Newsome had some pass protection issues in the last game he's been good in the other two games; this was another strong pass protection performance and I liked a couple things he did on the ground, as on one of those Higdon runs. He reads the blitz here and treats the linebacker shooting across the LOS like he's a DL he needs to block down, and accomplishes that goal:

Kalis had a couple of blocks that verged on mauling:

He and Magnuson caved in sides of the line on a fairly regular basis. You'll see them below when we talk running backs.

Wilton Speight: not terrifying. But still unsettling?

Yeah. A bounce-back game in that he wasn't a major problem and offset some issues with nice plays of his own. He shifted all his bad things from bad reads to inaccurate and didn't pick up a star:

[Hennechart orientation: mouse over column headers for explanations of the categories. + is handed out for a good throw under duress. * is handed out for a very bad version of a bad thing. Numbers in parens are screens. DSR is an attempt to compress the numbers into one overall number. PFF is PFF's grade.]

But there were a lot—a lot a lot—of inaccurate and marginal throws. I thought he was much better against UCF than in this game; PFF not so much.

Four games in I think we can confidently state that Speight's got that Rothlisberger thing where he's slippery enough in the pocket and also huge so it's surprisingly hard to sack him. On Michigan's opening drive they tried some sort of waggle throwback thing on which Butt got straight-up tackled (and is covered anyway). Speight's getting a DL to his blindside and just spins past him:

Later he'd have the wherewithal to move up past a couple guys about to sack him and just flip it out to Smith:

With the exception of the Awuzie leveling against Colorado his pocket presence has been a major asset. His roll to the outside and throw to the endzone ended up drawing a (legit) holding call on Smith but was more evidence that he's good when things start to break down. Strange but true.

Speight also discontinued his series of dangerous throws into coverage. Speight didn't target a covered guy all day, and had a number of instances where he got to second or third reads. Speight's touchdown to Asiasi was probably #3 after a wheel route to Smith and Chesson's drag:

He was confident in his reads, found open guys, bought time in the pocket, and even converted a fourth and seven with a buffalo stampede. And this is a good secondary.

On the downside, Speight straight up missed several guys on balls that weren't even close.

That's not the guy we saw against UCF, and I'm trying to figure out why. My theory is that Speight's footwork went to hell when he was still in the pocket and getting pressure. Once he's outside the pocket and throwing on the move he's basically fine. He modifies his approach since he knows he's on the run and throws a lot of wobbly floaters that are on point to open guys. When he's totally clean and his mechanics are consistent he's very accurate.

When he's getting rushers in on him and still throwing from the pocket maybe his footwork gets messed up and balls go anywhere? Compare the two fullback flat throws. On the early one to Hill PSU sends a blitzer and Speight appears to anticipate the contact as the pickup guy gets hit back into him. Thus a throw Hill has to pluck off his shoelaces:

The fourth quarter throw to Poggi is clean and he throws a strike to Poggi's chest:

I zaprudered these plays and Speight doesn't step up with his left foot on the Hill throw, probably because he's anticipating contact. If he does step and throw as normal this ball still gets out without having the impact affect the ball's accuracy.

So. On a dart to Butt over the middle, he steps up confidently:

On a wheel route to Chesson he does step into the throw but appears to abort his follow-through as he anticipates contact; the resulting ball is well short and turns a TD on an RPS +3 play into just a solid gain:

The post he left short is also somewhat pressured and may affect his footwork.

This doesn't explain everything. Speight was clean on the throw to Perry that drew an (incorrect) targeting penalty. The first down is there but Speight throws it upfield of the spot and brings the LB into the play. His other miss in the direction of Perry was a clean throw as well. I don't know if those are still after-affects from the hit or a more realistic picture of his accuracy when he's not certain he won't have a hand laid on him. Wisconsin will reveal much, because he's going to be under duress.

FWIW, a gentleman who hears about practice reported back to me that this week's practice shorted the backups snaps: "They were trying to correct some mechanics [for Speight]. Short arming passes, footwork and timing. Cadence and rhythm were a focal point." He's seeing the field well, and just struggling to execute periodically. That's the kind of thing Harbaugh can get worked out.

You liked the running backs?

All of them.

Mikey likes it! Sound the church bells! Their pealing will usher in a new era of tolerating running backs and not complaining each and every week about the yards they set fire to on the field! Yea, it is a frabjous day!

Laying it on a little thick there.

WELL.

Yes, Mikey likes it.  So did PFF:

RB chart (WR grades are run only):

With Penn State overplaying the edges hard Michigan shifted much of the workload from the Colorado game back to a suddenly-dominant line and four backs who all played well per both charters here—getting into the green (+1 or better) on limited carries is impressive, and all four of Michigan's backs managed it. Meanwhile a 22-6 plus-minus ratio hasn't been seen in these parts for a long time.

While I liked everything, I liked Higdon best of all. This is probably because we hadn't seen anything from him except that one cut against Northwestern last year and I wasn't expecting much. He turned out to be the tough inside runner his recruiting profile said he was, and he demonstrated that on his opening carry, where he just bounces off an unblocked safety at two yards:

That was immediately preceded with a steeplechase hurdle and followed by Higdon lowering his pads and dragging two more guys a few yards. On the next drive he shot through a small gap in the line on a power play and once again powered through the first guy to meet him; he succumbed to an ankle tackle but had turned three yards into six. The one downer was a play on which an ankle tackle took him down:

Say whatever you want about De'Veon Smith but I'd forgotten running backs occasionally fall over like that. As far as Higdon goes, even on that run where I gave him a negative I liked his late shift outside to go right off his lead block's butt. His instincts look good so far. The little shifts got the most out of a run near the goal line:

Right off one butt and then another and then changing the angle to get hit from the side and grab those YAC. This game puts him right in the thick of the running back rotation. He looked legit.

Smith made a number of excellent cuts that are the kind of thing I was hoping would be consistent after his bowl performance. On this power play he presses inside at first, then bounces to the outside before a final upfield burst that takes him to the secondary:

Butt got a little motion on that end but has not sealed him at all, and if Smith commits outside to start there's a high chance the DE sheds back to that hole and it's a modest gain. By downshifting and threatening inside he gets a LB to commit (with help from an OL that is blowing out a DT). He's rarely sold opponents on a gap he doesn't intend to hit; he did here. Also note that finally, finally Kalis and Smith are consistently headed to the same gap.

Smith would press and pop later for a big gainer on third and short, and the endzone view features Griese exclaiming "look at that cut", because yes, it's a good cut:

That's going to work on better teams than PSU. Maybe not for 30 yards but at least five.

Isaac made some good cuts, including a decisive slash backside on a zone read. The defensive end apparently thinks it's 2010 and Michigan's quarterback is shorter, more dreadlocked, and slightly faster:

He had a cut on a power play that was just about identical to Smith's, albeit with a little less interior gravity. He also ripped off a weaving long run on Michigan's final, uncharted touchdown drive, so you can probably add +2 to his totals above.

Evans had a big gain on an offset draw that was his wheelhouse since he just got to go be fast in space. I was more impressed with this little piece of work on a broken power play:

He's cutting away from his lead guy because that outside is borked; in doing so he exposes himself to a charging safety. That deft little cut behind Magnuson doesn't get him a ton but it does allow him to grab five yards instead of two.

I thought Smith blew a cut on first and goal from the four on a play that could have ended up in the endzone; Evans could have gotten more on a crack sweep that he did not cut upfield at the proper moment to do so. Higdon fell over that one time. This is a very short list of bad things on so many carries, and then Michigan's backs piled yards on yards of stuff they're gaining themselves.

It is the way of things that they will be dire against Wisconsin and I will despair.

But I pealed the bells. No takebacks. 

I didn't peal any bells, pal.

FINE. If Hill is an All-American why is Poggi consistently splitting snaps with him? He got half as many as Poggi here.

Uh, I dunno. Poggi's improved from last year but Hill has seemed clearly better, what with the singlehandedly paving the way for a Smith touchdown last week and various other impressive blocks. I thought this seal on a crack sweep was terrific:

You see guys lose to that spin move all the time but Hill keeps stepping around and gets to the point where even the give-up-and-give-ground approach isn't getting him anywhere. That DE is gone. On the other hand, Hill did fail to recognize a linebacker on another crack sweep, so he's not perfect.

Let us talk receiving. Amara Darboh was a tank, and I mean this as a compliment?

Yes, here is catch chart.

[0 = uncatchable, 1 = circus catch, 2 = moderate difficulty, 3 = routine]

ROUTES: Perry ++, Butt +, Darboh +.

Darboh had an excellent game, twice toughing out third down conversions by breaking tackles:

This has been a consistent theme for him. I also really liked his adjustment on an out route near the goal line. Penn State has this route bracketed and dead to rights, so he pulls himself out of the endzone and gives Speight a target.

Those two yards set Michigan up to punch it in from the one; if he doesn't make this adjustment (and if Speight doesn't, as well), fourth and three is either a chip shot field goal or a considerably tougher goal-to-go.

Butt was wide open for a chunk on a play largely attributable to a PSU bust but he also demonstrated some route chops by selling the PSU safety on a corner route:

Reminder: those are good safeties.

Meanwhile Grant Perry continues to come into his own as Dileo 3000. Michigan got a chunk on third and six because he shook his dude so badly that he couldn't get any sort of tackle attempt in even when the safety came up:

Then he just about shook the safety. Perry had a key third and medium conversion near the goal line and should have had another but for a bad throw from Speight. He has his role and he's playing it well.

I need some wacky Stanfordization plays man. I'm running low.

How about Grant Newsome, slot receiver?

That's actually kind of a standard trick play a lot of teams run.

Those fullback flats were RPS plays, or at least should have been—Penn State didn't bother to cover the first one. Check out Michael Jocz on the second, as he runs a perfect pick route:

That's more or less a block. His only goal is to find the LB shooting out to the flat. When he gets there, he sticks his butt out and turns to the QB, thus eliminating a potential OPI flag. That's textbook right there from Michigan's 7th TE.

Michigan also spotted something in the way PSU was defending inside zone and repeatedly hammered it. I'm not exactly sure what to call this play, which is clearly designed to attack a backside gap since Speight hands off to the right:

The line blocks inside zone. PSU slants to it, and slanted to it every time. backside tackle washes that DE down the line, TE and FB go and get second level blocks, and now whoever it is has a lane to the second level. Michigan ran this five times, picking up two third and short conversions and 20 yards on the other three plays.

And with Penn State demonstrating that yes they had in fact drilled all week on stopping jet sweeps on a rather predicable early carry for McDoom that lost five yards, Peppers entered to decoy the Penn State defense and give De'Veon Smith a cavern on the interior:

The jet fake hold some guys outside—one LB in particular runs himself out of the play—and then the other half of the play is in fact a zone counter that starts out right and goes left, holding a DB who sits with "??? over his head for the duration of the play. Also in this vein was the wheel route mentioned above in the section on Speight: M brought Evans in motion and faked an edge pitch, which drew up the safety Chesson ran right by.

Finally, Michigan brought their offset draw back out. They hadn't put it on film since late last year and so I'm a little perplexed why they'd remind people about it in a game that was out of hand, but I'll never stop loving that little tweak that slides the draw over a gap and has made this such a consistently effective gainer:

Higdon's long score would come on offset draw as well.

This was a blowout tactically on top of everything else.

Heroes?

The OL as a whole. The running backs as a whole. Darboh.

Maybe not so heroic?

I'm beginning to get a bit worried about Chesson, who hasn't had much impact. He dropped a fourth and two in this game and didn't play his single long target well. Speight was okay but had too many passes to Tacopants and his extended family.

What does it mean for Wisconsin and the future?

We're going to find out how opponent-dependent this performance was real quick. This was a huge step forward for the ground game, which consistently found yards in an all-around performance Michigan hasn't seen since at least 2010 and probably longer than that. Penn State is a team that was shattered by Pitt's ground game and then lost all its linebackers after that, though, soooooo... yeah. We'll see.

Speight made better decisions but his mechanics fell apart too often. I'll take the former; let's hope Michigan can hammer out the accuracy issues. Harbaugh's the man to do that.

Hello Karan Higdon. Instantly in the conversation after that performance.

Darboh can still grab you third downs by catching the passes defenses want you to. The idea is they tackle him. Not always possible.

Paging Jehu Chesson. Donde esta?

I'll probably hate the running backs next week. But this week I am full of bountiful hope!

Grant Perry is a reliable chain mover and useful piece. Freshman stuff deep in the past.