Upon Further Review 2016: Defense vs Penn State

SPONSOR NOTES: Getting a mortgage with Matt is a matter of collecting your documents, getting them uploaded to the secure server, and then checking out a set of rates while wearing whatever you want, like pants. Or... not pants.

In addition to being a gentleman replete with Michigan tickets, Matt is also a good man to know if you need a mortgage. It's striking that we actually get non-astroturfed comments about positive experiences with Matt not infrequently.

If you're buying a home or refinancing, he's the right guy to call.

FORMATION NOTES: Okay. Breaking things into front and cover look seems to be mostly functional. By "press" I mean that the two outside corners are in press. Usually the slots are still a number of yards off. This was a 4-2-5 package. The front is nickel over—Peppers is playing S and the line slides towards the run strength—and the cover look was press two high:

Goal line package was called 4-4 press zero:

When Michigan went to a dime package they had a couple of different approaches. This is a 3-man front like you'd see in a 3-4 with OLBs flanking it and just one ILB:

I called this front 3-3 split. They also did some wacky stuff, like putting all three DL to one side of the line:

"Heavy slide 3-3-5." Taco Charlton, the nominal nose tackle, will help tackle an outside run to the top of the field.

And as a reminder I'm lumping all fronts with a bunch of dudes at the LOS under "okie":

BTW, "half press" or "off" looks are usually zone so far.

PERSONNEL NOTES: Just 57 defensive snaps and a ton of rotation on the DL. Charlton seems all the way back and in fact took the most of any DL(39); Godin, Glasgow, Hurst, Wormley, and Gary all had around 30. Winovich got 22.

The two ILBs got every snap until the final drive; McCray was lifted a few times when Michigan went to passing down packages. Furbush debuted for the final two drives. Stribling, Hill, Peppers, Thomas, and Lewis were near-omnipresent. Clark got just 15 snaps before his exit; Kinnel got 23.

[After THE JUMP: this is turning into the usual Penn State game.]

No spinny guys this week.

It decidedly so.

But I can't really get up about this, you know? I mean, it's just Penn State's offensive line. I saw last year. I saw this year. They're the same thing.

I feel you. That offense looked 0% different from Hawaii or UCF with the exception of a couple of skill players, and one of those skill players only almost did something awesome. This game falls under "necessary but not sufficient" for defensive hopes. On the other hand: no busts. No events where Barkley dances around and then guts you like a fish. No deep thirds unoccupied.

Shall we list the plays on which PSU got much of anything?

Sure, it's going to be a short list.

The list:

• Gedeon lets a shovel screen outside of him and Barkley picks up 30.
• Michigan gets RPSed on that edge give UCF used, with a combo of man coverage and one high safety plus McCray getting blown up for 33.
• Michigan has fancy blitz on that gets RPSed by a Barkley wheel route for 19.
• RPSed again on a flare route that Gedeon has to try to cover from a bad position for 17.
• Lewis beat on a slant for 11.
• Mesh catches man coverage for 10.

This is almost entirely Michigan losing at rock-paper-scissors. Lewis rust and one bad piece of leverage from Gedeon are the only non-RPS occurrences here, and these are the only ten-yard-plus plays Michigan gave up. (They also had three pass interference calls, about which more in a bit.) RPS negatives are going to happen, especially when you've got a mad scientist like Don Brown who will do slightly dubious things in an effort to create chaos. Here McCray's got to cover Barkley out of the backfield and it's just never going to happen:

I'm totally willing to give up those chunk plays in exchange for a defense that's #1 in havoc rate and finished this game with six sacks and 13 TFLs.

I mean, the pressure number in the

TO CRUSH YOUR ENEMIES

chart

TO SEE THEM DRIVEN BEFORE YOU

uh

TO HEAR THE LAMENTATION OF THE 409ERS

All right.

[NOTE: PFF grading works out differently than mine. In UFR zero is bad for DL; it's average in PFF. Their scale seems to be about a third or a half of mine. PFF has a "penalty" section that I've elected to omit for space's sake, which is why the individual components might not add up to the "overall." number. I'll note when it's a big discrepancy.]

That is a beatdown for the ages by the defensive line.

Let's glory in the chaos.

It wasn't all Brown. Michigan opened the game with a couple of regular-ass rushes where there are no blitzes, stunts, or games, and got two sacks on the first series. The first was catalyzed by Glasgow tossing away the RG and flushing into Godin's contain:

The second we talked about in the game column:

Taco pushing the pocket closed. We've talked about keeping your rush lanes a lot the past couple weeks since UCF burned Michigan repeatedly on scrambles. This space projected that Taco Charlton would provide a big upgrade in that department and it was so: despite facing a slippery Tate Forcier-esque quarterback, Michigan allowed just two scrambles*, both of them on third down and short of the sticks.

Charlton didn't take long to demonstrate his proficiency, as he was an unheralded reason that Wormley got a near safety on Penn State's opening drive:

This play started on the eight and Wormley gets around the corner at maybe 9 yards, which isn't quite enough to get to a QB who can step up. McSorley cannot because of the way Taco tends to rush the QB:

Taco bulls a guy back and then pushes inside, as he usually does, and Wormley now has an environment where his edge rush can pay off. McSorley took off a ton in this game and Michigan was able to get sacks most of the time that happened. I think we can put that issue from the UCF game to rest.

Michigan's DL straight-up dominated this OL even when Brown wasn't scheming his way to free rushers up the gut.

But he also did that:

That's the flipside of the RPS plays noted above. That weird, slightly dubious blitz has guys backing out from the LOS on the snap, so they're in poor position to cover various routes. Doesn't matter since Winovich has a free path to the QB's chest.

Hurst. Dang.

Yeah, any concerns that he'd have lingering effects from the injury that held him out of the opener are kaput. He crushed Gesicki on a TE screen; this sack is full-on teleporting Maurice Hurst:

And he retains the OL-crushing burst that he displayed last year. This third and short stop rivals some of the whoopings he handed out in last year's edition of this game.

His ability and the frequent blitzing by Brown are a good combo. On that Gedeon TFL discussed above it felt like PSU was really worried about what Hurst might do and that helped open up Gedeon's path to the backfield. Michigan gets a lot of guys through because DL are freaking the OL out.

I see your linebacker numbers came back to earth.

To some extent. Gedeon did rack up a number minuses for issues against Barkley. McCray got clubbed by a wide receiver on another play that burst outside of him.

On the other hand, Gedeon clubbed Gesicki some:

Everyone clubs Gesicki, who is an awful blocker. I'm still liable to hand out a +2 whenever a guy gets off a block and makes an authoritative tackle. Later Gedeon would cue up a blitz and get a TFL.

His timing on that blitz was excellent, and that's been a theme so far this year. Michigan's been very good at holding their blitzes until the OL makes a call and commits to it. While part of this is an artifact of the spreads they're going up against—which generally indicate when they're snapping the ball by the center's look down and then back up—they've done a good job of waiting out the sideline checks and then going after it. One dollar Don Brown's LB coaching has a special emphasis on reading when the snap will be and timing those blitzes up.

How was Lewis on his return?

He got beat on a slant and was otherwise Jourdan Lewis. His "I'm back" play was a combination bust/terrible playcall; he ends up unblocked on a tunnel screen and makes a fourth-down TFL:

1) Gesicki probably busts here as he's the only guy with vague shot at Lewis; 2) you can't run a tunnel screen at a guy lined up two yards from the LOS; 3) Lewis doesn't back off an inch before the WR breaks to the tunnel because he ain't scurred of this dude accelerating past him.

Lewis's follow-up was equally impressive, as an edge pitch threatens the bit of the Michigan run defense that's been a little shaky so far. He zips past his blocker and shuts the thing down:

Want him to tackle, of course, but that's still an excellent play. Don Brown said Lewis was the best run-D corner he'd been around, and early returns are good.

Lewis remains Lewis downfield:

He said he was rusty and holding on this play, but rubbin's racin'.

Are we worried about these pass interference calls at all?

No. The only one that was kind of bad was Clark's. That was a standard vastly-underthrown-ball-causes-CB-to-hit-WR-as-he-slows call. Just about everyone is susceptible to those. Also, Clark's injury renders that sadly moot.

The two on Stribling were not egregious. The first was extremely dubious:

Both guys are handfighting. Both guys are looking for the ball. If you were to look at stills once the two make contact you'd have no idea who was the WR and who was the CB. Then Godwin shoves Stribling behind him. I don't think it's OPI. It's not PI. I have no problem with Stribling playing this route like this for the rest of time.

The second he probably gets away with and gets in some sort of PBU except for some bad luck: the receiver falls down.

Stribling does have that arm around him at the crucial moment and you have to throw the flag, but that strikes me as bad luck more than anything else.

More important than the two sketchy flags was Stribling's overall performance, which was excellent. He did blow a "crack replace"* on one of PSU's big chunk runs; in coverage he was impeccable. He broke up a hitch, and he was the catalyst for the sad field goal with a great contest on a well-thrown fade:

Godwin is highly legit—CBS has him a top ten WR prospect for next year's draft—and couldn't do much of anything. That was largely Stribling. PFF had him the top CB in the Big Ten prior to this game and he's probably still that. Preseason hype gets one point for Stribling; he's rounded into the excellent corner he's always almost been.

*[When a receiver goes and blocks a linebacker you have to come off him and get to the outside run that's coming your way.]

Rashan Gary didn't do a ton. I am disappoint.

I mean no but any individual DL in this game only got about 30 snaps, and they weren't just competing against Penn State for stats but their own teammates. Also, Gary did this terrifying thing:

You know how we're impressed when the nose tackle gets outside to help make tackles? Yeah, that's a guy three further gaps away getting there.

Same with Peppers. No TFLs! Overrated!

That was the one bad thing about this game. I was irritated on the Winovich sack because Peppers was coming around the outside clean. Can we all agree to let Peppers get all the stats please?

Anyway, Peppers's influence was more subtle in this game. You'll note that the guys getting edged on those outside runs are not him; he's moving around and Penn State's sideline checks refused to test him on the edge except once:

Michigan sends a big blitz and catches a flare screen that should be a problem until Peppers wrecks his guy and contains. Keep in mind what's happening to the Penn State offensive line in this game and their clear need to do anything that does not involve them; Peppers is just as dominant a matchup on the edge.

I want the punt return. It will make me feel better.

Fine:

That's just easy with a huge kick from a backed-up punt formation. Stribling and I think Hill both kick out their guys; you can see from the endzone cam that Washington manages to put his dude on the ground not ten yards from the LOS. Peppers has a lane direct up the gut, just like his TD.

No safety busts! /waves tiny punt flag

No, and while they weren't tested much because of the line's dominance, when they were they did well. Thomas was called into duty three or four times to shut down Barkley in space. Once he made a tackle:

And the other couple of times he just escorted him out of bounds. This doesn't look like much of a play, but any time you get a guy that dangerous all alone you're doing well to get him out after his chunk and live to fight another day:

Thomas looks coached to give up an extra ten or fifteen yards as long as Barkley is forced out of bounds. He does so.

I mostly clipped this because it's a brilliant throw by McSorley that almost pays off, but Thomas does stay with one of the quickest guys in the country and has an impact on the eventual incompletion:

Thomas showed up where he was supposed to and did the things he was supposed to. With some of last week's issues on Peppers his early season trajectory now seems much less scary.

Hill was less visible but did make a badass stop on a screen:

That's Gesicki again so degree of difficulty is lower than it looks. Any play in space on Barkley while being blocked is a damn good play.

I also liked this  bit of coverage where he is aware enough to get around a pick and runs right under the intended route:

Easy to see an INT there. As it is, McSorley has to bug out against the rush and doinks a ref as he throws it away.

This was another game where a lot of tight camera angles obscured the safeties, so I don't have much other than vague impressions and the above clips. All I can say is that there didn't appear to be a single issue with either guy all game. Easy outing, yes. Still important to cut down on that bust rate as we go along here; this was encouraging after the Colorado game.

Heroes?

Pick a DL. I thought everyone in the secondary save Clark had a great day.

Maybe not so heroic?

Nope.

What does it mean for Wisconsin and the future?

Lewis, Taco, and Hurst are all full go. Good luck with this (almost) fully operational battle station.

The DL is living up to expectations. Incredibly deep with Godin's emergence as a senior.

Clark's loss is mostly going to be felt on passing downs. I'm surprised that he only got 15 snaps before his injury; they basically shuffled him to the Watson snaps and had both other guys full time. So he was certainly third in the pecking order. Still, Ioved the possibility of having Lewis as a slot corner. Now that's not happening unless one of the freshman starts to blow up.

Michigan had their assignments down. I mean, probably. They might have busted a few things that we didn't see because McSorley was running away from the Mongol hordes. But nothing was blitheringly open aside from some RPS stuff.

Gedeon had some issues with Barkley in space. Inevitable, I'd imagine. Curtis Samuel could provide similar issues.