Preview: 2016 Penn State

Essentials

Overview

Meet the new Penn State: they honor Joe Paterno, make questionable in-game decisions, have a wreck of an offensive line, and deploy a legitimately terrifying running back. Sooooo... the old Penn State.

This year's version does have some significant differences. They beat Temple, for one. Also they lost to Pitt. Trace McSorley's an upgrade on Christian Hackenberg; their new punter is an upgrade on the legless duck they ran out last year. The new defensive linemen... are not an upgrade. Neither are the second-string linebackers, all of whom figure to start this weekend.

Penn State's struggled on both lines and Michigan should dominate one matchup and seek to get right in the other.

Run Offense vs Penn State

injury crisis means walk-on Brandon Smith is PSU's starting MLB

The looming question for PSU is whether they will have any of their starting linebackers available. Nyeem Wartman-White is out for the year, again. Jason Cabinda was sporting a large cast on his arm last Saturday and is doubtful. Brandon Bellwas on crutches; he's also doubtful. Neither is listed on the PSU depth chart. Without those three, PSU was forced to turn to walk-on Brandon Smith at MLB and sophomores Manny Bowen, their spacebacker, and Jake Cooper at OLB. PFF likes Bowen and hates Cooper; Ace didn't like either but did like Smith.

PSU's rush defense was excellent against Temple, okay against Kent State, and obliterated by Pitt. Pitt rushed for 341 yards on 56 carries; five different players had a run of 20 yards or more and the Panthers put up 42 points on a day where they threw for 91 yards. That was before the injury plague hit its peak. PSU's done fine against their lower-level opponents; where Michigan's run game fits in a spectrum from Pitt to Temple remains sadly unknown.

One thing that is known: Mason Cole will surely appreciate the change of pace from last week. Josh Tupou departs; Penn State arrives with Kevin Givens and Parker Cothren, both sub-300 pounders. Givens is listed at a malleable 275. PFF rates them tolerably well, but their grades are like mine and therefore based on the competition. It's possible both were good against Temple and Kent State and that's overwhelming the Pitt mess. Saturday will be a clarifying event for both teams as they try to gauge their abilities in this department.

FWIW, PSU fans are terrified of jet sweeps. Michigan's been running a ton of them, but with PSU no doubt focusing on improvement there and Michigan having largely omitted their counters for jet sweep overplay from the playbook so far I'd guess Michigan spends more of its time faking the jet than actually running it. Either way the interplay between a soft Penn State edge and the skill position corps that rescued the Colorado game by pounding players near the sideline will be one to watch. Michigan ran a ton of WR screens last year and this is largely the same group on both sides of the ball; watch for Michigan to supplement their actual run game with a virtual one on the outside, whether that's by jet, bubble, tunnel, or flash.

I'm not sure what to expect here. I'm alarmed by the Colorado game but that feels like a highly negative outlier against the worst matchup imaginable for Mason Cole. PSU is a much smaller interior and one that got hammered by the only power 5 team they've played so far. I'd guess Michigan bounces back to "fine, just fine, it's fine" against a depleted opponent. I won't be shocked by a hammering either way.

KEY MATCHUP: MICHIGAN LINEMEN versus COMBO BLOCKING. They shouldn't be so bad at deciding what to do at this stage in their careers. If it doesn't start getting better this week it probably won't until next year, when a new generation takes over.

[Hit THE JUMP for OH MAN THIS LINE against MICHIGAN'S DL]

Pass Offense vs Penn State

Sickels is the last man standing on the DL

Penn State's pass defense is 404 file not found this year. Pitt's QB didn't have to do anything; Kent State's QB (5.7 YPA against NC A&T) and Temple's QB (12/26, 0 TD, 3 INT against Army) can't do anything against anyone. Any assertions about how good they are are handwaving.

Penn State was a top ten pass defense last year in both conventional and fancy measures and should at least be good. The secondary lost two of seven contributors and should be about as good as it was a year ago, if not better. On the other hand, the departures of Austin Johnson, Carl Nassib, Anthony Zettel, and absence of Bell and Cabinda (who combined for eight sacks last year) promise to devastate what was last year's #1 pass rush per S&P+. While they have ten already, seven of those were against Kent State.

For what it's worth, PFF has good coverage grades for the starting safeties, Marcus Allen and Malik Golden, and junior corner I'll force Ace to pronounce Amani Oruwariye. CB John Reid has a negative coverage grade and didn't impress against Temple:

Corner John Reid, a former top-250 recruit, gave up a would-be touchdown bomb on a flea flicker where he stayed in decent position but didn't play the ball well—it came back on an unrelated Temple penalty. He allowed a first down by going for a shoulder-first kill-shot and whiffing entirely on an intermediate throw into a dangerously small window, and he also picked up a blantant and unnecessary holding call when he decided to bear-hug the slot receiver. He's good in run support; he looks vulnerable in coverage.

PSU is down projected starter Grant Haley,  who has barely played this year. He is on the depth chart, unlike the linebackers, and could return. He got scattered snaps in the opener and his (undisclosed) injury could be along the same lines as Jourdan Lewis's.

Ace also noticed a major uptick in DE Garrett Sickels's play. Sickels, the lone returner from last year's line, had a Gary-like edge sack where he dipped around the corner:

DE Garrett Sickels was the relative non-factor on an otherwise dominant PSU D-line last year. He's improved quite a bit. I noticed him early on when he flowed down the line to tackle on an interior run in a similar fashion to one of Rashan Gary's TFLs from last weekend. Also reminiscent of Gary was Sickels's bend around the corner on this sack:

Sickels is 260, not 290 like Gary, but he's still an impressive player. He's grading out as PSU's top DL on PFF with a respectable +4.4 grade over three games, with most of that coming from his pass-rush.

He will be a test for Grant Newsome. One of the ways this game swings is if Speight gets hammered early and goes into a funk similar to the one he was in against Colorado.

Speaking of that: Michigan needs the version of Speight from the first two games. Maybe not to win this game. To win it decisively, yes. To achieve something approximating the preseason hype, yes. I can't tell you which is the real Slim Speighty, not after last year's Jake Rudock in-season resurrection. I can tell you I'll be hiding under the cushions if he's the Colorado version of himself again.

KEY MATCHUP: WILTON SPEIGHT versus WHATEVER THAT WAS. Also SICKELS versus NEWSOME.

Run Defense vs Penn State

Barkley is a wizard

Long story short: Michigan will wreck this offensive line., Penn State will get what Saquon Barkley conjures himself, with a side helping of chunk plays Michigan cedes because they vacate a gap or a rushing lane or something.

The slightly longer version: Penn State has morphed into yet another spread offense that almost literally never has fewer than three wide receivers on the field. They don't play a fullback. Tight ends other than the starter have collected a total of 15 snaps in three games. That leaves six guys to block on every play. PFF has graded these folks and found them wanting. To date one of them, right tackle Brendan Mahon, has been decent to good. One, left tackle Andrew Nelson, has been average-ish against PSU's meh schedule. The other four guys range from bad (C Brian Gaia) to great flaming disasters (both guards and tight end Mike Gesicki).

Ace saw the same thing when he reviewed the Temple game:

I'll be honest: I felt bad clipping some of these. Watch the H-back, Gesicki (#88) on this one:

The right guard starts to lose his block at the end, but there's still a crease to be made there if Gesicki makes any sort of forceful contact with the linebacker; he does not, and PSU ends up getting bailed out only by an unneccessary facemask by Temple.

This TFL is on Mahon (LT #70), who, again, is PSU's top-graded run blocker:

This one features another Gesicki whiff and a lineman pulling into no-man's land. You get the point: run-blocking is awful.

Literally the only thing propping up the Penn State ground game is Barkley. There is no doubt he's capital-L Legit. Here's a reel of his contributions in last year's MSU game; in it he makes the most of questionable blocking on play after play:

Barkley is able to juke in tight spaces, set up his blocks to provide a crease, and has good speed in the open field. Why he cast his lot with this offensive line remains a mystery.

QB Trace McSorley was supposed to be a Tate Forcier-like guy who's not exactly a dual threat but can rack up some yards over the course of the season; that has not really panned out. He's got 27 non-sack carries this year that are averaging a hair over three yards an attempt, and he hasn't done much in the past two games. He could rack up some scramble yards if Michigan reverts to their UCF form.

Michigan's front seven projects to get Taco Charlton back, which should close off a couple avenues for Penn State to pop off chunk runs—Chase Winovich is promising but still raw and tends to over-pursue. PSU's OL won't be able to handle Glasgow, Wormley, and company. This is virtually the same matchup as it was last year, when Penn State ripped off one big zone stretch at the start of the game and gained 15 yards the rest of the day. Expect the same, give or take a long one.

KEY MATCHUP: DELANO HILL and DYMONTE THOMAS against TURNING A 15 YARD BARKLEY RUN INTO A 70 YARD BARKLEY RUN. Barkley's really good at turning his opportunities into big plays; Michigan's been susceptible to giving them up.

Pass Defense vs Penn State

McSorley will be drafted in the first round by the Jets

Trace McSorley has been an upgrade for Penn State, particularly for their situation. When PFF detailed why they thought Christian Hackenberg was undraftable a year ago one of their main focuses was on the fact that Hackenberg sacked himself repeatedly with bad pocket awareness and poor mobility. McSorley isn't a dual-threat QB but he's much more mobile and, thanks in part to new offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead's system, Penn State has seen its sacks allowed plummet. Opponents have just five through three games.

While PSU's OL hasn't been as bad in this department as they are on the ground, both tackles are grading out significantly negative and the rest of the OL is close to zero. This also represents significant improvement from the days when a two-man rush was enough to get through the PSU OL. Temple is no longer hacking their way through for ten sacks. Wave that tiny flag, PSU OL.

It still says here that PSU will struggle to protect. Their only Power 5 opposition to date, Pitt, had four of those sacks. Meanwhile Ace saw a lot of hurries, if not outright sacks, against Temple:

Temple could sit back on passing downs and still create "pockets" like this on a four-man rush:

McSorely did well there just to make it three yards past the line of scrimmage; at no point during this play did he have the ability to set up and look downfield.

A bomb to Mike Gesicki (who's basically a slower Devin Funchess) was created from a broken pocket and a scramble, so Michigan will have to watch out for a reversion to their UCF containment issues. Charlton's return should help a lot in this department; his style of pass rush lends itself to a crushed pocket.

When it comes to the throwing of the ball down the field, McSorley has been excellent. He's averaging 9.2 yards an attempt. Here too the new system comes into effect, as 54 of McSorley's 85 attempts PFF has charted are within ten yards of the line of scrimmage. McSorley's been highly efficient on these throws, completing a whopping 78% of them, and they haven't been bubble screens and the like. He's got just one throw to the sidelines behind the LOS this year. This is a West Coast spread: highly efficient throws slightly downfield. 

The reader is no doubt picturing the wide open plains Michigan left Colorado last week on play action slants and the like. That is an issue. Michigan overreacted to play action with their linebackers and found their slot corner play wanting. One of those should get fixed by the projected return of Jourdan Lewis, who will get whatever nickelback snaps are available in addition to playing time on the outside when Michigan is in their 4-2-5. Ask again later about the other stuff.

FWIW, McSorley is 7/16 beyond 20 yards—pretty good. It's the intermediate areas of the field where PSU doesn't really do much. It's either a quick throw or a deep shot.

PSU's WRs are mostly familiar: DaeSean Hamilton and Chris Godwin were their main guys a year ago; the injured Saeed Blacknall was the guy who caught a touchdown over a confused Peppers. If Blacknall can't go it'll be DeAndre Thompkins instead; other WRs have vanishingly few snaps probably from garbage time in the opener. Godwin is the main man, coming off a 9.3 yards per target season that saw him bail Hackenberg out on a ton of arm-punt deep balls. He'll be a challenge for Michigan's to-date excellent corners. The 5'11" Thompkins doesn't get targeted much but when he does it's usually a big chunk play; PSU will no doubt try to replicate what Colorado's slot-sized guys accomplished last week.

KEY MATCHUP: LINEBACKERS and SLOT CORNERS versus PENN STATE'S HIGHLY EFFICIENT SHORT GAME. DL can't do much if the ball is out to the first read consistently. Michigan LBs should maybe cool their jets a bit given this OL/DL matchup.

Special Teams

Penn State fans are over the moon about freshman punter Blake Gillikin, who takes over for a platoon of dudes who couldn't average 40 yards a kick and specialized in shanks. Gillikin's booming them 45 yards a pop and has ceded just three returns for a total of three yards. This is a massive upgrade for them, and may limit Jabrill Peppers's special teams impact.

Kickoff specialist Joey Julius did this:

Everything else is irrelevant. (Okay fine: 16 touchbacks on 21 kickoffs, again promising to limit Peppers's special teams impact.) Kicker Tyler Davis is 13/13 in his career. 

PSU return units have been middling. They haven't done much on kickoffs; sophomore DB John Reid is averaging almost 9  yards a punt return, which is pretty good.

Michigan had a high-variance outing against Colorado, getting two touchdowns on punts (one a block, one a Peppers return) and a kickoff return out to the CU 45 but missing two field goals and giving up two significant punt returns of their own.

I've been told that Kenny Allen, Michigan's all-phases specialist, was under the weather last weekend, and his performance was certainly not up to his usual standard. It's likely he bounces back to his usual self: consistent field goal kicking under 40 yards, long punts, liable to punt one into the endzone.

Michigan's punt formation... guh.

KEY MATCHUP: COLORADO KENNY ALLEN versus USUAL KENNY ALLEN. AHHHH YOU PUT IT THROUGH THE UPRIGHTS.

Intangibles

Cheap Thrills

Worry if...

• Speight still seems broken.
• Michigan's outside zone play is still "everyone run to the sideline for no particular reason."
• Barkley is one on one with a person.

Cackle with knowing glee if...

• Barkley is surrounded by three guys.
• Peppers gets something returnable.
• Michigan can blow open the middle like Pitt did.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 3 (Baseline 5; –1 OL? More Like LOL, –1 for James Franklin Versus Brady Hoke Was An Even Gameday Matchup, +1 for That Barkley Dude, +1 for Unbreak My Speight, Say You'll Throw Accurately Again, –1 for Wormley/Gary Versus Gesicki, –1 for Hey Na Hey Na Jourdan's Back)

Desperate need to win level: 10 (Baseline 5; +1 for Fanbase Of Delusional 409 Crackpots, +1 for Some Stakes On This Season Yessir, +1 for Administration Catering To Delusional 409 Crackpots, +1 for I Enjoy Ref Conspiracy Theories After Multiple Score Wins, +1 for It's All In Front Of Them)

Loss will cause me to... read 409honor.blogspot.com for hours.

Win will cause me to... modify our Penn State shirt with "we don't talk about those things."

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:

Michigan will have to clean up the slant issues they endured against Colorado to slow down this offense. I think that happens with Lewis's return. McSorley and friends will find some pockets and move the ball down the field a bit, but consistently hitting Michigan on third and long is going to be difficult. And it will be third and long a lot. PSU has gotten in terrible down and distances against the Temples of the world because they get blasted in the backfield so frequently. That'll continue, and Penn State will punt a lot.

They'll also hit Michigan with a big play or three. Barkley's capable. Godwin is capable. McSorley can escape the pocket, and Michigan's been a bit vulnerable to that this year. Michigan is still working through the busts inherent in acquiring a new system, and PSU is well suited to exploit those. Expect a couple of explosions and not much else.

The other side of the ball is far murkier. Is Michigan going to be able to come close to what Pitt did? Even sort of? Is Speight going to be as discombobulated as he was against Colorado? Is Colorado's defense actually very good? What does Penn State's pass defense even look like? I can't answer any of these questions. (Other than Colorado: I think they're actually very good.)

A middle of the road answer to all these questions looks something like:

• Michigan's ground game is fine but uninspiring.
• Speight is fine but uninspiring.
• PSU's linebackers blow several things.

It should be enough, especially as Peppers starts drawing a bigger role.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• Speight rebounds and is much closer to the UCF Speight, completing 65% of his passes for around 8 YPA.
• Barkley rips off one big run and then thumps into TFLs for the rest of the day.
• Peppers gets eight offensive touches as Michigan tries to make up for a low projected level of special teams impact. He has a TD.
• Michigan, 32-15