(Guess what? I published a book this offseason. It’s about baseball. The Cubs. The White Sox. And that one time they played each other in the World Series. Check it out. It’s only available via Amazon Kindle right now, but a print on demand option is coming soon)
Jabrill Peppers leads the nation in tackles for loss and punt return yards. We all knew that. But I liked typing that out. And reading it over and over and over……
How has the unique start to his season impacted the Heisman race? His odds to win the trophy have fallen from 25/1 to 20/1. There were seven players with shorter odds than Peppers in the preseason. There are still five players ahead of him now. Two players, Lamar Jackson and Greg Ward Jr., have jumped ahead of him on the board. Ward Jr. has gone from 35/1 to 18/1. Meanwhile, Jackson is now the overwhelming betting favorite at –225 after starting out as a 50/1 three weeks ago. Below is a list of the top-6 betting favorites and their opening preseason odds.
| Candidate | Current Odds | Preseason Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | -225 | 5000 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 600 | 600 |
| JT Barrett | 650 | 1100 |
| Deshaun Watson | 800 | 400 |
| Greg Ward Jr. | 1800 | 3500 |
| Jabrill Peppers | 2000 | 2500 |
I like the steadiness of McCaffrey. He started 6/1 and remains 6/1. Other notable odds not seen above: Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield started the season at 10/1 with the fifth shortest odds available. Today, he’s not even listed on the updated betting board. Had we made this chart a week ago, Florida State’s Dalvin Cook and Deondre Francis would have both been in the top-6. However in the wake of the Noles beatdown at the hands of Louisville, both have dropped. Francis began the season as a 60/1 shot, but was down to 12/1 a week ago after his hot start. Like Mayfield, he is no longer on the betting board. Cook remains in contention, although his odds have been falling all season. He opened at 8/1, was 12/1 a week ago, and today you can get Florida State’s star tailback at 33/1. For perspective, San Diego State tailback Donnel Pumphrey is just ahead of him at 25/1.
[Hit THE JUMP for things more interesting than Heisman odds]
That’s probably more than you ever wanted to know about updated Heisman odds this early in season. Let’s roll through some previews of this week’s B1G games with formal picks at the end……
WAKE FOREST AT INDIANA. LINES, IU –7.5; O/U 45.5
How low is this Over/Under total? Only once in the previous 46 games have oddsmakers set a total on an Indiana game below 50 points. That was in Week 10 in 2014, 19 games ago, when the Hoosiers started Zander Diamont against Penn State and oddsmakers set the number at 46.5. The Over is 29-16-1 in those 46. games. However oddsmakers have set this total at a more Wake Forest-like number as it's the 23rd game in their last 27 starts with a betting total of less than 50 points. The Under is 16-10-1 in those games. Cue the ‘Something’s Got To Give’ music.
[Via theacc.com]
On the field, it will be interesting to see how Indiana handles Wake Forest's DE star Duke Ejiofor. The Hoosiers have had one of the better offensive lines in the B1G over the last several seasons. But guard Dan Feeney, their best lineman, might be out with concussion symptoms. And they've started a true freshman at right tackle in both of the season's first two games. They were seventh nationally a years ago in sacks allowed, but they've already allowed six seasons during their first two games of the new campaign. Can they contain Ejiofor? The sophomore comes at you from both end spots. He's had 14 pressures on 55 pass rush situations in two games against FBS schools this year. Two weeks ago in their win against Duke, he had six havoc plays, including three sacks and two forced fumbles.
There are a lot of bowl implications in this September football game between basketball schools. A win for the Demon Deacons moves them to 4-0 and, with winnable games still ahead against Army, UVA, and Boston College, their first bowl game since 2011 is a real possibility. The Hoosiers might have more winnable games left than Wake. But the margin of error is thin for both schools. Both play in monster divisions and can't afford to drop too many games against their equals if they want to get a bowl bid.
NEVADA AT PURDUE. LINES, PURDUE –6, O/U 60
Purdue is favored by 6 points over Nevada, which begs the question: How bad is Nevada? The answer is probably pretty bad. They're 96th in the latest S&P projections. Purdue, however, is just 91st. Only four Power-5 teams are ranked lower than the Boilermakers: Kansas, 113; Kentucky, 95th; and Rutgers, 92nd. What a terrible year for the B1G to not schedule a Rutgers-Purdue match. #ThanksDelany. Meanwhile, the Boilermakers have not covered the spread as a favorite against an FBS team since the 2014 opener when they defeated Western Michigan 43-34 as 7.5-point chalk. The good news for Purdue is their reputation as being a Cradle of Quarterbacks remains strong with former Boilermakers Danny Etling and Austin Appleby starting for LSU and Florida respectively in SEC games this weekend.
COLORADO STATE AT MINNESOTA. LINES, MINNY –17, O/U 56
The Gophers are 35th in the S&P, 54 spots ahead of this week's opponents Colorado State and are 16.5-point favorites over the Rams. The Gophers, however, have failed to cover in their last five attempts as a favorite of more than a touchdown against FBS foes, including their 30-23 win over Oregon State in the opener as 13.5-point chalk. Minnesota won that game behind a significant field position edge, the excellent punting from Ryan Santosa, and a defense that generated 4 critical sacks and allowed just 5.3 yards per pass. They will probably need all of that if they want to put away a Rams team they needed double overtime to defeat a year ago.
IOWA AT RUTGERS. LINES, IOWA –13.5, O/U 56
The offensive numbers were gory for Iowa a week ago in their loss to North Dakota State. Nine of 11 drives went for 16 yards or less, with six going for zero or negative yards. The Hawks averaged only 1.9 yards per rush and gained just 64 total second half yards. Toss out a 51-yards catch by George Kittle and Iowa moved the ball only 3.75 yards per play. Look for all that rebound in their conference opener against a Rutgers team that's allowed 8.6 yards per pass and 6.1 yards per play so far in 2016.
[Elsa/Getty Images North America]
Don't look now, but Rutgers might have a decent running attack brewing. Maybe. They're 28th in rushing yards per game and 38th in yards per carry. Robert Martin had 169 yards a week ago against New Mexico, including an 80 yard touchdown. Last week, we saw the Bison run all day on the Hawks to the tune of 49 carries and 239 yards. If Rutgers can be effective with the run, that will be great for them, but it will probably speak to more bad things down the road for Iowa than anything else. The lean is to Iowa. Road chalk of less than 2 TDs are 23-15 ATS coming off a home loss as double digit favorites. That’s not enough to put actual dough on it, but more than enough to make this pick here. Iowa rebounds and rolls, 38-14.
NEBRASKA AT NORTHWESTERN. LINES, NEBRASKA –7.5; O/U 46
Northwestern and Nebraska have played each other every year since the Cornhuskers joined the league in 2011. And we're better for it. In four of those five games, the margin of victory was 3 points or less and the contests have generally been crazy, especially in the second half. The only blowout since 2011 was Nebraska's 38-17 win two years ago in Evanston.
After dealing with Oregon's offensive firepower and creativity, playing Northwestern's offense will probably feel like playing a JV team for Nebraska. Lost in the big win and all those Oregon 2-point attempts was a nice effort by the Cornhusker secondary and pass defense. Dakota Prukop came into the game hot, but Nebraska at least held his passing in check to the tune of 6.3 yards per attempt, 3.6 yards less than his season average coming into the game. Nebraska relied a lot on freshmen and sophomores in the secondary a year ago, but everybody seems improved in the new season. Entering league play, Nebraska is 16th in defensive passer rating and 28th in yards per attempt. They already have seven interceptions this season after just 10 a year ago. And the secondary has a 11-percent havoc rate, 7th best of all defensive back groups nationally.
Northwestern's Clayton Thorson may be coming off one his best games, but he shouldn't pose much of a threat here. In the second half against Duke, the Wildcats got a 44-yard touchdown pass and another 52-yard big play to set up another touchdown. Otherwise, they averaged just 3.75 yards per play for the rest of the game. Northwestern is ranked 100th or worse in total offense, scoring offense, yards per rush, yards per play, and first downs gained. I think the point has been made. The underdog has been on a nice run in Northwestern games in recent seasons, but it's hard to put faith in that when the underdog is the Northwestern club we've seen so far in 2016. Earlier in Fitzgerald's tenure at Northwestern, the underdog was on a similar against the spread run. But with QBs like Mike Kafka and Dan Persa, there was comfort backing Northwestern because you knew they could generate the offense to stay with the chalk. What are you banking on if you take Northwestern and the points here? Praying for a 9-3 outcome? I don't have enough rosary beads for that. Nebraska suddenly looks like a burgeoning team. The improvements on both sides of the ball shows through in a 28-13 win.
WISCONSIN AT MICHIGAN STATE. LINES, MSU –6; O/U 42.5
#RealRivals renewed. The Spartans and Badgers hit the field against each other for the first time since 2012 and hopefully they will continue their series of close affairs. The previous seven games in the series have been decided by 4.8 points per game, with six games decided by less than one score and 4 by a field goal or less. The underdog has covered four in a row, which is just a fancy way of saying MSU has covered four in a row, since they were the underdog in all four. It's Linebacker U vs. Linebacker U.
[Benny Sieu/USA Today Sports]
It's also a game between teams who--so far--each own one of the better wins of the young season. The Badgers upset LSU in the opener and have since seen their odds to win the B1G fall from 20/1 to 10/1. That win showed enough people they can win the B1G West and at least get into the league championship game. Obviously, you can't win the title if you are not in the title game first. The line for their game this weekend against Michigan State, however, has gone the other way and moved against them. The Book made MSU a 3-point favorite over the summer, but with game week on the heels of Michigan State's impressive win in South Bend, that line re-opened this week as MSU -6.
The lede is Wisconsin's QB change. They benched Bart Houston in the middle of last week's game and have handed the offense to redshirt freshman Alex Hornibrook who will now make the first start of his career. He's averaging 10.8 yards per pass, a big uptick from Houston's 6.8. Can Hornibrook avoid the back breaking turnover that's defined Wisconin QBs the last couple of seasons? Can he push the team into the end zone more often? The Badgers, 106th a season ago at finishing drives with 4.14 points per trip inside the 40, are still only 100th in the early going this season with just 4.23 points per trip inside the 40. Missed chances almost cost them their big upset in the opener in the LSU and almost made them a big upset victim last week against Georgia State. Despite the QB change, I don't know if that will improve this weekend. Their explosive running game has disappeared. Corey Clement is banged up. Emerging TE star Troy Fumagali is questionable.
These are the fourth and 15th best teams in defensive field position. And the 7th and 23rd best teams in opponents third down conversions. Expect longer fields and not a lot of sustained drives. The Badgers come in with one the most disruptive teams in the country, creating a havoc play on over 20% of their defensive snaps. Given some of their offensive issues, they will need to dial the disruption up a few more notches to pull out a win in East Lansing. The Badgers defense could easily win this game for Wisconsin. The problem is their offense is likely to prevent it from winning just as much. I'll still take those points. The Badgers won't wilt against MSU’s physical play like the Irish's defense eventually did. Somebody wins this game 17-13.
PENN STATE AT MICHIGAN. LINES, UM –19; O/U 57
I want repeat something mentioned on the Podcast this week. If you remove Saquan Barkley's longest run in each game so far this year--a 28-yarder vs. Kent, a 29-yarder vs. Pitt, and a 55-yarder last week against Temple--he's only averaging 2.8 yards per carry on 48 attempts. Limit the big play and you all but take away their rushing attack. Even with those three big plays, they're still a woeful 114th nationally with 3.16 yards per rush.
Penn State's meal ticket so far this year has been the big play via the air. They have 14 passing plays of 20 or more yards, good for 18th nationally and tied, rather conveniently with Michigan, for the lead in the B1G. Trace McSorley is completing over 64% of his passes for 9.2 yards per attempts. A year ago, those numbers were 53% and 7.0 for Christian Hackenberg. Against Pitt, five different Nittany Lions had at least one catch of 24 yards. Last week, three targets caught at least one pass of 48 yards or more. The big pass play has been a steady factor in their favor so far through three games. Most know the talents of Chris Godwin and DeShaun Hamilton, but what about DeAndre Thompkins and Mike Gesicki? The sophomore Thompkins has already surpassed his meager freshman year stats. He only has seven catches on nine targets, but three have gone for at least 34 yards. As for the Tight End Gesicki, he's the third most favored target for McSorley, but his catch rate is only 60% (compare that to Jake Butt's 72%). However, he's averaging 17.6 yards per catch and already has a career high in yards this season. PSU fans have wondered when Gesicki would finally impact the offense, and his time seems to be finally here. Michigan has been dinged by some big plays in both the running and passing game the last couple of weeks. The need to limit those this week and, when they do hit, make sure they aren't scoring plays or put PSU right on the doorstep because.....
The Nittany Lions red zone and third down offense still stink. The inability to score touchdowns once they get into a red zone continues to dog Penn State. After finishing 120th and 99th the last two seasons in red zone TD%, the Nittany Lions are 93rd this year with touchdowns on just 8 of 16 trips inside the opponents 20-yard line. Since the start of 2014, Penn State has scored the max amount of points just 49 times out of 100 trips in the red zone. Be on the lookout for the poorly timed gadget play deep in opposing territory. And obvious QB draw plays and Wildcat plays. This year, they could not put inferior foes Kent and Temple away because they settled for too many field goals. And in the shootout against Pitt, they had to settle for a late field goal after a first and goal situation in a game they lost by three points. Meanwhile the situational football is as ineffective on third down for Penn State. The Nits are 117th nationally in third down conversions, hitting for a first down on only 9 of 33 attempts. Possible Relevant Stat: The Wolverines lead the county in third down defense, allowing foes to convert just four of 38 third down shots.
Michigan is currently favored by 19 points, making it the first time since 2006 that the Wolverines have been double digit chalk four weeks in a row. That year, it was the four games leading up to the OSU showdown. This line was only UM -14 during the summer, re-opened at -16 Sunday afternoon and has been bet up steadily most of the week to the current 19 number. This is a huge number for Michigan to cover, but Penn State is just 2-8 SU and ATS against eventual B1G bowl teams the last two years, averaging just 15.1 points per game in those contests. Penn State has had a field position edge in their games so far this year. Don't expect that to happen against Michigan. And it's such a mismatch in the trenches when Penn State has the ball. Their offensive front could not handle Michigan's defensive front a year ago. Bad news, PSU. The Wolverines are even better this year up front. It's really hard to see Penn State having a lot of success unless Michigan has some breakdowns. Michigan played an imperfect game a week ago and won 45-28. They are closer to their A-game in the B1G opener and win 35-10.
We’re going to make unofficial picks for all the B1G conference games this year and see how we do. This week, we’re eating a lot of chalk as league play finally begins with Michigan, Iowa, and Nebraska. Wisconsin stands alone as an underdog pick.
What about real picks? Of course. Coming right up. I wouldn’t leave you with mere fake picks. We went 2-3-1 a week ago, making our season long record 5-5-1. So close to bowl eligibility! The Belk Bowl will love us! Our action is centered around tomorrow night with these four picks:
Stanford –3 at UCLA……It is time for us to start betting on Christian McCaffrey’s team, especially laying short chalk to a team they’ve owned for years.
Arkansas +6 vs Texas A/M…..We’re going to keep riding the Hogs as an underdog. Arkansas is 10-3 ATS when catching points.
South Carolina +2 at Kentucky….When you see Kentucky as an SEC favorite, it just seems like wise policy to bet against them.
Oklahoma State +9.5 at Baylor…..This play and the South Carolina one both qualify for that conference road dog after winning as a home favorite the week before that we played three times last week to the tune of a 2-1 record. It saved us from a terrible day, so we’re staying on the system this week.
Will these picks win? Will temptation get the better of me at 11:55 am leading to a bunch of ‘scratch that itch degenerate picks’ that almost never pan out? How tipsy on tailgate drinks will I be then? Will Trace McSorley live? Those answers and more come tomorrow.