Upon Further Review 2016: Offense vs Colorado

SPONSOR NOTES: Sauce Castillo may just be off the hook since Iowa lost to NDSU and does not look like a psycho killer this year. But if Michigan does lose to Iowa, hoo boy you're going to be a pariah! A persona non-grata! That'll show you to skip the ads.

In addition to being a gentleman replete with Michigan tickets, he is also a good man to know if you need a mortgage. It's striking that we actually get non-astroturfed comments about positive experiences with Matt not infrequently.

If you're buying a home or refinancing, he's the right guy to call.

FORMATION NOTES: Michigan was very heavy in this game, with only a quarter of their snaps featuring 3 or more wideouts. 27 of them had 0 or 1. CU was very consistent with their formations, running a pure 3-4 on all non-passing downs:

They ran a standard nickel on passing downs.

SUBSTITUTION NOTES: OL the expected starting five with the exception of one drive for Bredeson in the first half. Smith got about half the snaps at RB with Evans and Isaac getting the rest; FB once again split just about down the middle between Hill and Poggi.

Butt and Darboh were just about omnipresent; Chesson only got slightly more than half the snaps since Darboh was preferred in one-WR formations. Bunting got about half the snaps; Perry and Asiasi both got about a dozen. Various other guys got 1-5 snaps.

[After THE JUMP: I'm fretting.] 

sa

I am ready for this. I am not panicking. I am serene.

So, before we start, Colorado NT Josh Tupou is a beast. I know we didn't go into this game expecting that, necessarily, and it's always questionable in the aftermath of a disappointing game when a partisan says "no seriously, that guy was legit." But take it from a guy who picked out future NFL second round draft pick Jason Jones back in 2007 in a game against Eastern Michigan(!!!): Tupou is going to be drafted and probably pretty high.

I suspected this from the first snap, when Tupou chucked Mason Cole aside like he was Willie Henry encountering some balsa wood. I converted to the church of Tupou on this play, when he engaged with Cole and took everything Kyle Kalis could muster:

That dude doesn't even notice a 300-pound man hitting him hard from the side.  Later in the game Michigan would run a trap; Henry Poggi would thud into a stationary Tupou not expecting contact from the side and simply bounce off.

Outside of (probably) Malik McDowell this was the best DT Michigan will face this year, by some distance.

It's just that…

Don't.

I have to.

I will feel bad about the season. I am feeling less serene.

This game made me legitimately about the offensive line. They were a wreck.

You don't think "wreck" overstates things?

No. This game made me very depressed as I charted it, to the point where I grabbed both of Michigan's outside zone plays deep into garbage time because FFS both of them saw nobody except Henry Poggi block anyone. I mean, look at the

no i don't want to

chart:

*[Butt got +1 for running and –3 for a fumble. Those are not included in the blocking total. Hill got +1 on a catch, also not included.]

So! That's real bad. I more or less agreed with PFF on the line except Braden, who I thought was good, and Butt/Asiasi/Poggi, who I thought were major assets overall.

As far as the OL, woof. I clipped four or five stretch plays on which the entire line ignored guys they have to block only for those guys to meet at the running back.

There are five defenders across the LOS on this play. I'd argue that zero of them are effectively blocked. Even the force guy who has to accept a kickout block both draws a two-for-one and gets back to the ballcarrier. This is one of the worst zone stretch plays I've seen in a decade of doing this, and for five years in there that was one of Michigan's staple plays.

The two late ones are just baffling. Isaac gets the edge on the first and the result is a nominally successful run, but that doesn't mean the guys on the interior shouldn't be seeking to cut guys off at the pass. Instead they run by without exception:

Next play, same thing. I expect Cole to chip Tupou so Braden can step around. Instead he runs directly downfield and once again not a single CU DL is effectively blocked:

This was so consistent I almost assume it has to be as intended, except not once did any playside CU DL get blocked, at all, on plays that should exploit a hypothetical mobility weakness. On every single one the guy I expect to chip just ran by the guy and the guy behind couldn't do jack. Except that one time they took a chop block. If it's as intended, maybe stop intending to do things that don't get anyone blocked.

This was a trend even on nominally gap-blocked runs. My least favorite thing to see on a run play is when an OL gets hung out to dry by a teammate and ends up chasing a guy to the play, because it's always the dude who got screwed over who people get on afterwards. Here Kyle Kalis is asked to reach a guy a gap outside of him without any help because Magnuson pulls:

Nobody makes that block. (And of course further inside Cole and Braden successfully scoop Tupou for like the only time in the game on a play that he's irrelevant on. I may have sighed expansively while watching this play.) I have to assume that's a busted assignment because the alternative is bad design; ditto that second Tupou play embedded above Kyle Kalis falls down, and that's bad, but even if he was upright Michigan has one blocker for two LBs. Someone, probably Braden, did not pull around into the gap.

Meanwhile, in pass protection Michigan chased ghosts. Blitzers got through scot free over and over again, even in situations where the only reasonable interpretation appears to be a mild stroke:

I have no idea how a left tackle abandons a guy shooting outside of him. Magnuson did the same thing later:

This, meanwhile, was even more alarming since it's the continuation of a trend:

Three man line, only one plausible blitzer in the area, and Braden somehow manages to miss the blindingly obvious blitz coming straight at his face. Not one but two guys shoot through the line untouched on this one; Smith gets an excellent pickup on one of them.

Soooooo, yeah. These are the reason I was alarmed about the OL performance.

BUT AT LEAST WE HAVE A STEADY, RELIABLE GAME MANAGER AT QB RIGHT

Uh.

HAHAHAHA I'M NOT NERVOUS AT ALL

This did not look like the same quarterback. The early sack/strip may have had something to do with it. (Please, please, please have everything to do with it.)

Wilton Speight pic.twitter.com/4rr42GXTiE

— Nick Baumgardner (@nickbaumgardner) September 17, 2016

It's one thing for Speight to get sped up into bad decisions because he's afraid of pressure, and it's another for various passes to be wildly off. The giant ice pack he wore to the post-game presser may indicate a physical reason on top of whatever footsteps he was hearing, or the first couple weeks might have been a mirage. The only thing that will clarify is more data.

Here's what we have so far:

[Hennechart orientation: mouse over column headers for explanations of the categories. + is handed out for a good throw under duress. * is handed out for a very bad version of a bad thing. Numbers in parens are screens. DSR is an attempt to compress the numbers into one overall number. PFF is PFF's grade.]

So that's Early Rudock Except Crazy.

A fair portion of the negative things that happened were not on him. Michigan's protection broke down repeatedly in this game, and sometimes when it did this was compounded by guys not getting open. On one early prayer to nowhere Butt actually gets redirected into Darboh; the resulting Speight throw is actually a damn good one in a hypothetical universe where Butt can get to his spot with minimal delay.

Many were definitely on him. His reaction to an ugly blitz pickup early was instructive. Darboh lined up with a CB eight yards off him and ran a fly route. That should immediately disqualify his route or at least invite a back shoulder throw; Speight got pressure and threw it such that Darboh had to break up an INT. This led into a series of throws that were into coverage or nowhere near their targets or both. This one is late at a receiver who's dominated by a future NFL player:

A later fly down the sideline would see Darboh give himself a ton of room for a back shoulder throw; Speight literally hits the DB's foot:

That uncanny accuracy we talked about after the UCF game inverted itself into spray passing. A third and short conversion to Darboh was left way upfield and exposed to a DB;

On top of that there were a number of throws where he was both inaccurate and probably throwing to the wrong guy. Darboh has a window here that Speight misses, and Jake Butt is one on one with a CB, which veritably cries out for a #buttzone throw:

I probably don't notice Butt if that throw is on point; it's not.

Then there was the grand-bull-moose of WTF throws, an out to Jake Butt that was nearly a pick-six:

Wooooooof.

I'm going to dip myself in bleach.

I mean…

Okay you're going to talk me off the ledge okay it's going to be okay

…just make sure you have your affairs in order first?

: (

Fine, fine. Here is a positive thing. It seems paradoxical that a jumpy Speight would be at his best once he got pressured, but, lo, it was so. When afforded the opportunity to move around in the pocket he seemed to forget about the men chasing him—or at least knew what direction they were coming from now—and hit various guys who popped open. The big catch and run to Perry was the moment when the game went from a coin flip to a win to close out, and it only happened because Speight drew the attention of Awuzie and took advantage of it:

That asset carried over from the first couple games and can be regarded as fact now; even as he lost near everything else he maintained it.

No quarterback and no OL, how does Michigan put up 38 points and 400 yards?

Michigan's blocky/catchy guys and wide receivers came to play. It's no exaggeration to state that Michigan picked up more yards because of peripheral blockers than the actual offensive line. Between the Smith and Darboh touchdowns, a screen to Isaac, the two Peppers runs, a bubble, the weird Speight bootleg, and four jet sweeps Michigan picked up 166 yards—almost half their total. All of that hits to the outside of the field and involves the OL blocking in space, if they block at all.

Some of those numbers are in that chart above: I thought Butt and Hill were excellent on the ground, with Asiasi chipping in as well. The WR/RB ground chart also has a ton of positives:

RB chart (WR grades are run only):

The skill position players and their blocking are the main reason Michigan's offense remained even barely functional.

On the one hand, excellent job to rescue Michigan after finding themselves down 21-7 after the first quarter without having to have a functional inside running game or effective quarterback. On the other hand, also that last sentence.

Anyway. The good bits. Khalid Hill's already become an internet fave-rave after his 7-10 split of a block on the Smith touchdown, but it's too pretty not to embed again:

Hill also squeezed out a first down conversion by bouncing off a cornerback and deftly cut through some traffic on the Isaac touchdown to get a whack on a guy many fullbacks don't get to.

Jehu Chesson was the primary engine for the second Peppers run:

Darboh was the other important block. Grant Perry was the main motive force on Darboh's touchdown, and Michigan's jet sweeps were consistent gainers until very late.

Jake Butt had a second consecutive excellent week on the ground; he was consistently able to step around guys and seal them off:

Also featured on this play: Devin Asiasi putting a DB on the sideline. Asiasi seems to have moved past Wheatley as Michigan's go-to blocking tight end, and early returns are good. He had a rough outing last week; this week he latched on and ejected guys from the premises. Meanwhile,  Butt had a similar block on Isaac's touchdown and helped Smith get the last five yards on his 42-yarder.

Running back crabbing, you crab?

Says something about the blocking that I have only a few nits not worth mentioning after that game. On the contrary, Smith looked something like his decisive Citrus self when provided any opportunity. Here he cuts away from the intended iso hole just after getting the second level to commit:

He'd shift a gap in the other direction for ten yards a bit later. Other runs had similar cuts and met worse fates because of blocking issues.

And one MGoPoint to Chris Evans for making the cut last week's De'Veon Smith Vision Controversy Of The Week was about. He gets both LBs to commit to one iso gap and then cuts away from them… directly into Tupou. The blocking was a little worse this week.

Tupou falls over after a featherweight freshman hits him because of course he does. Anyway: if Michigan is able to block either DL there that's a nice gain into the secondary because of the backfield cut. Five yards isn't bad considering the game and the situation.

(Side note: Evans's pass blocking is currently very bad.)

The only other item of note was Isaac juking his way past a DE/OLB type and bailing Michigan out on first and 19:

Here's some analysis: yes good do that more.

Peppers?

Only two runs in this game, both successful but not particularly illuminating for anyone familiar with his work last year.

Boo! /throws shoe

none of these even match
do you go around wearing two different shoes all the time

Catch chart?

[0 = uncatchable, 1 = circus catch, 2 = moderate difficulty, 3 = routine]

ROUTES: Darboh –3, Butt –1.

Rough week, with a large proportion of total attempts filed completely uncatchable. Darboh struggled against CU's CBs; "Darboh might be fast" is tabled this week.

Stanford?

I ended up somewhat frustrated by the lack of big plays that seemed related to playcalling. In retrospect this is a function of an erratic QB and even more erratic OL. As we all learned during the Rodriguez years, to get big plays you have to do something well. I don't think Michigan did anything well enough to demand a response here.

There were a couple wrinkles I picked up.  The first Peppers run saw Michigan align in a tackle over formation. CU slid their DL to that side of the field and the resulting seals were easy:

Ways completely biffs his assignment and it's still seven yards because the alignment almost buys you that at the snap.

OTOH, sometimes your shuffling fullback takes the LB level directly to your back with no reasonable blocking response.

Michigan didn't have the opportunity to counter that because of circumstance.

Also here's a WR with a crackback block on an OLB on a play that makes no sense.

Your guess is as good as mine.

Heroes?

Your collection of perimeter blockers: Hill, Perry, Chesson, Darboh, Butt, and Asiasi. Butt was also the only consistently effective bit of the passing game.

Maybe not so heroic?

Cole and Kalis couldn't do anything with Tupou; Grant Newsome gave up a ton of pressure. Speight looked broken after the big hit.

What does it mean for Penn State and beyond?

Speight was rattled and hurt? And this is going to be a blip? That's the ticket.

Seriously, though: given the ice pack and the talk from Harbaugh afterward it's likely that Speight sustained some sort of bruise or stinger that crippled his accuracy. Meanwhile getting blown up like that had a major impact on his reads. Michigan had more guys open than it seemed at first blush; Speight did not find them.

I'm punting on whether this means anything until we see him against Penn State.

Michigan's wide receivers are terrific assets on the ground. I think we already knew this but this was a game they pulled out of the fire based on that skill.

Blitz pickups need serious, serious work. Early season hiccups, you'd hope. About half the pressures in this game came from either guys jetting through the line untouched or players freaking out about blitzes that either didn't come or they didn't have to get to.

Braden had a bounce-back. He blew one early blitz pickup but was otherwise good; Bredeson got just seven snaps and I assume Braden's very bad week from UCF was injury and rust related.

Jake Butt: back to being real good. Opening week blocking issues seem like a blip and he didn't drop anything here. /waves tiny flag

Interior line issues are partially Tupou-related… dude is the truth and Cole and Kalis won't have games that bad all season. Terrible matchup.

…but they can't run a stretch to save their lives. Woof! Woof woof woof!

Khalid Hill: impact fullback? Strange world. Possibly true.