(Guess what? I published a book this offseason. It's about baseball. The Cubs. The White Sox. And that one time they played each other in the World Series. Check it out. It's only available via Amazon Kindle right now, but a print on demand option is coming soon)
What a great Saturday of college football this weekend. For the first time in history, the top-3 ranked teams in the AP Poll go on the road to play a fellow top-20 team on the same day. Will it be Shakeup Saturday? Or Separation Saturday? I'm guessing a little from Column A and a little from Column B.
The B1G is right in the middle of it. Ohio State at Oklahoma is one of those three top-3 games, along with Florida St-Louisville and Alabama-Ole Miss. But also Michigan State and Notre Dame renew hostilities after a two season cease fire. Both teams are ranked, eyeing playoff runs and always seem to play tight, crazy games. Toss in unranked Nebraska favored and hosting mighty Oregon and there are three bigtime showdowns in the league this weekend. And the undercards all offer something interesting to watch, even if it's ineptitude. Looking at you, Northwestern. Ten of the league's 11 games this weekend involve games between FBS schools. The only game with an FCS squad is actually intriguing with that level's 5-time champ and regular giant killer North Dakota State going to Iowa. What's better is three things I dislike watching about the conference, Minnesota, Purdue, and the Indiana Defense, all don't play. It should be fun. Let's breeze through the schedule before this week's picks.
FOR DEGENERATES ONLY
[The rest of the lines, after THE JUMP]
New Mexico at Rutgers. Rutgers –5; O/U 58. Noon, ESPN NEWS.
Rutgers is favored by only five points against a New Mexico team that's just 22-64 straight up since 2009, is playing without key players, and traveling across the country the wrong way for an early kickoff. Then again, eight of those Lobo wins have come since the beginning of last season. They beat Boise State last November in Boise. There's no way Rutgers could have done that. The Lobos did cough up a late lead and lose to woeful New Mexico State last week. Rutgers could definitely do that. This game does fall into the ‘road dog after losing outright as double digit chalk’ category that we like so much. We won on that trend a week ago with Washington State at Boise. But I am exercising the ‘your best offensive and defensive player are not playing’ exception and not backing New Mexico here. Although I thought long and hard about pulling the trigger. I cant believe I am even vaguely interested in the outcome of this. #ThanksDelany.
Duke at Northwestern. NW –6.5; O/U 44. 8:00, BTN.
What's wrong with you if you're watching this game Saturday night over all the other mega showdowns that evening? Do you have other interests? Wait. Don't answer that. If you're watching, I am just going to assume you're gambling on it. And why wouldn't you? Northwestern probably can't even score a touchdown to cover the -6.5. And how in the world will these two teams combine for more than 44 points? Only with defensive scores sprinkled in. Despite playing a MAC defense and an FCS team, the Wildcats are going for just 4.77 yards per play, good for 110th nationally. They're 5-13 ATS as a favorite. Last week was the 12th time in the last 30 Northwestern games that the underdog has pulled off an outright upset. Take the points or stay away.
QUALIFYING HEATS
Georgia State at Wisconsin. Wiscy –35.5; O/U 49. Noon, BTN.
Time of possession is not much of a useful statistic, but it's hard not to bring it up in advance of this game. A week ago against Air Force, the Georgia State defense allowed a collegiate record of time of possession to the always run heavy Falcons with Air Force gobbling up 45:14 of possession. That's more than 3/4s of the game. Now the Panthers play a Wisconsin team that in its first two games possessed the ball for 13:07 and 13:36 in those respective first quarters. Does anybody know where we can bet the Under of total plays for Georgia State? After facing 56 rushing attempts against Ball State in the opener and 83 attempts against the Pilots a week ago, the Panthers are 124th in yards per rush attempt allowed. I wonder how the Badgers will attack this one? This feels like one of those vintage Badger game where they have a pair of 100-yard rushers.
Temple at Penn State. Penn State –9; O/U 51. Noon, BTN.
Tired of bagging on the Penn State offensive line? Good news! There is something else on the team we can make fun of! Their sudden GERG-like ability stopping the run. Through two games, their new, almost exclusively redshirt freshmen defensive line has allowed a sacks adjusted, more than 6.0 yards per carry. A freshman back from Kent State rushed for 6.3 yards per attempt in the opener. A week ago, future NFL back James Connor rushed for 6.1 per pop as the Pitt reeled off 11 runs of more than 10 yards, seven going for more than 20. If Temple and their 90th ranked 3.9 yards per carry can gash the Nittany Lions, then we can put a big old 'Competition Invariant' stamp on their rush defense. Even now, it does not look good with B1G season approaching.
UNDERCARDS
Maryland at UCF. Maryland –9.5; O/U 55.5. 7:00, CBSSN
Due to a family wedding last Saturday, the only two B1G games I really was able to watch start to finish was the UM-UCF game (which some of us still attended) and Friday night's Maryland-FIU game. So I feel like I could rip off a 5,000 word preview for this Maryland-UCF game. But I wont. I like you guys way too much. I will ask if Perry Hills has become a competent quarterback? Newsflash: Hills and the Terps have not thrown an interception all season. Remember a year ago, Maryland tossed 29 picks, flirted with a record interception rate, and saw their QBs toss at least two picks in nine games and five picks in three. Hill, for his part, contributed an interception in all eight games he saw action, including 3-pick games against Iowa and Penn State. They've only played Howard and FIU, so competition caveats are all over the place. But improvement has to start somewhere. And so far, Hills has looked more poised in the pocket, is completing 73% of his passes, and looks competent enough that most of the B1G West would kill for him. We'll see how much of this keeps up against the meat of their B1G East schedule. Maryland has six more winnable games left on their schedule, beginning with this tilt against the Knights, so they are in bowl contention. And in addition to the solid play from Hills, the Terps may have found a star in the making in freshman tailback Lorenzo Harrison. Two games into his career, he has not had too many touches yet. But he broke this sweet run Friday night to help break the game open for the Terps. Current Status: Excited to see where the guys picks him in next summer’s MGoDraftaggedon.
North Dakota St at Iowa. Iowa –16.5; O/U 57.5. Noon, ESPN2
A sneaky game on a stacked Saturday of games. Can the 5-time defending FCS Champions be the first team to beat Iowa's CJ Beathard in the regular season? Can the Bison beat a Power-5 club for the fifth straight year? This will be a harder chore than beating a depleted Kansas State club or the perennial dormant Iowa State Cyclones, some of their past big scalps. This game reminds me a bit of last season's opener for Iowa when they hosted the FCS runner-up Illinois State squad. Everyone expected a close battle, but ISU's offense could not muster much when it counted against Iowa's D. The Hawks won going away. The Bison will still be a test. And we should bank more information on the Hawkeyes in this one than we have in their first two games against Miami Ohio and Iowa State. The Bison are more talented than those clubs.
Western Michigan at Illinois. WMU –3.5; O/U 54.5. 4:00, ESPN NEWS
Western Michigan is favored over Illinois, but that shouldn't really surprise anybody. I live in Toledo and am also a Rockets fan. I would expect Toledo to win this game this year. And the Broncos and Rockets are two dead even teams from the same division in the same conference. Two weeks ago, the Broncos offense controlled a decent B1G defense in Northwestern and was on the field all day. Hard to imagine them not having more success against one the league's worst defenses. The Illini sold out their game for the first time since 2011 a week ago against UNC and had just over 60K for the game. They should let us bet on attendance because there will more more than 20,000 fewer people in the stands for this one. And everyone watching would be genuinely impressed if the Illini squeaked out a win.
Colorado at Michigan. UM –20; O/U 56. 3:30, BTN.
Colorado travels to Michigan in a rematch of that historic 1997 season opener when Colorado--ranked #1 by some--came to Ann Arbor, were tossed around the field like rag dolls and thrashed 27-3 by Michigan, launching both an historical national championship and Heisman winning season. Michigan will not wear vintage uniforms. They will instead celebrate by throwing the ball to as many tight ends as possible and grinding out a 38-12 win.
THE SHOWDOWNS
Florida State at Louisville.FSU –3; O/U 66.5. Noon, ESPN.
[Rich Barnes/USA Today Sports]
Current Heisman Trophy Odds: Christian McCaffrey, +450; DeShaun Watson, +550; Lamar Jackson +650; JT Barrett, +650; Dalvin Cook, +1200; Deondre Francois, +1200; Leonard Fournette, +1500. Nobody else has shorter odds than +2500 to win.
That means three of the top-7 Heisman contenders (Jackson, Cook, and Francois) are featured in this game. We'll see about the real award much later. But there is no way the September Heisman isn't awarded somehow in this game. Jackson and Cook were opposing starts in a Florida high school playoff game that lit up the scoreboard for 92 points and over 900 yards. Now they meet with college football playoff stakes on the line. I already can't wait to watch this game at our tailgate Saturday. I am not bold enough to pick Louisville, but the Cardinals are not as one dimensional as Ole Miss, and their secondary is more experienced, so the factors that eventually led to a Seminole runaway in the opener might not be in play here. I’d be surprised if Louisville isn’t in this game until the end.
Alabama at Ole Miss. Bama –11.5; O/U 54.5. 3:30, CBS.
Ole Miss is trying to beat a Nick Saban-led team for the third time in a row. The only times that's happened was when he was coaching Michigan State. Lloyd Carr's Michigan teams from 1996-1998 and, of all programs, Joe Tiller's Purdue 1997-99 clubs pulled the natural hat trick against Saban. Those Michigan teams won those three in a row against Saban by double digits. Otherwise, Saban is lights out in revenge games carrying nearly a .900 winning percentage with an average margin of victory of just under two touchdowns. Ole Miss probably gets rolled.
There are so many other national games with compelling storylines. Pitt-Oklahoma State, Texas A/M-Auburn, BYU-UCLA, USC-Stanford, Texas-Cal, Mississippi St-LSU. I'll work in more national stuff into these posts as the season goes on. Promise. For now, let's move onto the three B1G Main Events and, eventually, some official picks.
Oregon at Nebraska.Nebraska –3; O/U 74: 3:30, ABC.
It's the time of the year for Nebraska's annual regular season shootout with its marquee non conference opponent. Since joining the B1G, the Cornhuskers have had six of these games (they played two last year), and the total score has averaged 70.7 points with the winner coming in at 39.7 per game. Now they're bringing Oregon into Lincoln and oddsmakers are expecting fireworks with an Over/Under set at very Pac-12 After Dark 74 points.
[Jonathan Ferry; Getty Images]
The Huskers defense has been pretty average since joining the league. A year ago, they were in the bottom third of the conference in total defense, scoring defense, yards per play, completion percentage, and yards per pass. This year, they're in the process of replacing their entire defensive line. They've put up some decent numbers through two weeks of the new season, but do you trust it to stop Oregon's offense? Dakota Prukop looks amazing in the early going. Royce Freeman is a stud. He forces a boatload of missed tackles and, per that PFF link, averaged 9.0 yards per pop when running inside the tackles a week ago against Virginia. The Huskers have been practicing Rugby-style tactics to help improve last year's tackling and this will be a stiff test for those new ways. I dont think it will work against Freeman. He has 18 games of 100 yards or more since the start of the 2014 season. Add another one. And look for his 40/1 Heisman Trophy odds to plummet in the aftermath.
Nebraska has the makings of a nice offense too and should be able to do damage against Oregon's Brady Hoke-led defense that allowed 7.1 yards per carry to Virginia tailbacks last week on 31 carries. The seemingly rosy PFF Oregon breakdown linked above? Lost in it is the fact Oregon allowed 3.3 yards per rush before contact a week ago. The good news for Oregon is the Ducks pass defense is probably the best defensive unit in this game. Tommy Armstrong will be less accurate, less explosive, and less efficient getting the ball downfield than Prokup and that should tilt this one towards the underdog Ducks. Oregon is on a 9-1 ATS run when catching points or laying less than a TD. They won outright at Arizona State, Washington, and Stanford a season ago in the shirt underdog role. Nebraska, meanwhile, is just 2-6 ATS in their last eight chances as single digit home favorites. They typically lose at least once a year in the favorite role. This game is probably the most likely for that to happen this year.
Ohio State at Oklahoma. OSU –2; O/U 63.5. 7:30, ABC.
Has some of the luster come off this intersectional prize fight since Oklahoma already has a loss to Houston in Week One? Hardly. It raises the stakes for the Sooners, who probably have the most to both gain and lose among all the contenders playing Saturday. A loss eliminates them from playoff contention before the calendar turns to summer. But a win practically cleanses that loss off their resume, gives them a win that will resonate all season, and totally flips the discussion surrounding their team and season. And it's not like Oklahoma's early season loss has dampened Buckeye fans enthusiasm. They have pulled the ultimate troll move by renting out and selling out Oklahoma's basketball arena for pep rally the night before the game. I wonder if Harbaugh has reached out to Mark Hollis yet?
As for the game, it's a great match of powerhouse recruiting machines trying to replace buckets of program all-timers. The Buckeyes had to replace more of those, but the early returns seem to reveal they've reloaded faster than the Sooners with the likes of Malik Hooker, Marshon Lattimore, and Curtis Samuel emerging during the first two weeks. The Buckeyes still have two guys who Oklahoma probably wont be able to block in Tyquan Lewis and Raekwon McMillan. Both teams return Heisman contenders at QB, but the OSU’s JT Barrett has been better than Baker Mayfield so far. PFF says he's got the best deep ball accuracy in the country, and he's got nice boxscore numbers on his downfield throws through two weeks. Given how Houston's offense rolled the Sooners two weeks ago, Barrett and company should be able to do plenty of damage.
[Aaron Doster/USA Today Sports]
That does not mean the Sooners are out of it. The Sooners have great run blockers and one of the best tailback combos in Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon. But will they run? The Sooners sometimes forget about this part of their offense. They have rushed for less than 75 yards rushing in all of their losses since the start of last season. It was mostly from a lack of trying, like the 11 total carries Perine and Mixon had against Houston. Defensively, they are great against the run. OSU's ground game looks less scary without Ekezial Elliot's constant home run threat, and they struggled at times to get it going against Tulsa last week. And in that game, we saw Tulsa's front stunt their way to a lot of success during the first half. Can the Sooners do something similar and can they maintain it? Keep in mind, Oklahoma struggles with QBs who can extend plays. Just look at what Greg Ward Jr. did to them two weeks. However, that's not JT's forte. He likes to make reads in Urban's offense and spread the ball around. His decision making remains a step slow way too often, however. If the Sooners can apply pressure and force Barrett into even quicker decisions, there will be a lot of incomplete passes and the Sooners could thwart the Buckeyes offense.
The oddsmakers have done a 180 on this game. On the eve of the season, this game was listed with Oklahoma as 6-point favorites. Nope. Not anymore. In the wake of the Houston loss, the odds have shifted and it's actually the travelling Buckeyes who are the betting favorite. Most Books opened with OSU as 2-point chalk this week. If OSU remains favored up until kickoff, it will be the first time Oklahoma will be a home dog since their October 2000 top-5 showdown with Nebraska that Oklahoma. The Sooners won that game and eventually went on the win the National Championship that year.
I don't see that happening this year. In the end, I do prefer Urban and his 6-3 record at OSU in games between top-15 teams against Stoops and his corresponding 5-7 record during the same time frame. Oh, and Urban is 18-0 as OSU coach in true road games. That said, the game looks to be too much of a wild card to put actual dollars on it.
Michigan State at Notre Dame. ND –7.5; O/U 51.5. 7:30, NBC.
Michigan State comes off an odd, early season bye week. Bye weeks are overrated. The Spartans were beyond clunky in that opener against a bad Furman team. I sure would have liked their chances more in this one had they had a chance to iron out some of those kinks against live competition, even if it was just a tomato can from the MAC. They should have tried scheduling a quick game at Rynearson Stadium last weekend instead.
Hard to believe it's been since 2010 since the Spartans last defeated Notre Dame. Sure, they have not played the last two seasons, but this series has trended towards the Spartans since the mid-1990s, that it surprised me nevertheless as I was reviewing the series history. Speaking of that history. Ten of the last 14 games in this series have been decided by seven points or less. All four of those touchdown-plus margins, however, have taken place in the seven meetings since 2007. The road teams has covered 12 of the last 16 games in the series and the Spartans are on a 7-1-1 ATS run in South Bend. Michigan State has won or lost by less than a touchdown on the Irish's home turf in eight of the last nine meetings.
That exception was Notre Dame's 31-13 home win in 2011. I have a feeling this game is going to look a lot like that one, at least when the Irish offense is on the field against the MSU defense. DiShone Kizer is playing too good right now. His offensive line is protecting too well. And the overall skill and athleticism look too top end for an MSU defense that is in transition and not fully formed yet. Everyone is familiar with this PFF article by now on the rebuilding MSU D. It’s some analysis that is hard to get out of your head when looking at this matchup. The weaknesses they outline sure do seem to line up with some of the Irish's strength right now. My interpretation is not as dire as most around here. McDowell is enough of a factor that he can single handedly ruin your offense for the day. And the Vayonte Copeland return from injury a year ago gives the secondary a boost not mentioned in the article. But they sure were handsy trying to cover the Furman Palladins, so they might still be overmatched here.
The Irish missed a lot of tackles in their opener against Texas. That could keep the Spartans in this one, especially if they get LJ Scott running downfield. But otherwise I expect the Irish offense to come out swinging and establish an early lead. The game will eventually come back to MSU a little, but Kizer will connect on a big fourth quarter play putting the game finally out of reach.
PICKS? PICKS!
We went a disappointing 1-2 a week ago, bringing the overall record to 3-2. The winning and losing difference last week was Pitt, despite multiple 14-point leads throughout the contest, allowing a late Penn State score to put the final margin at 3 and bust my bet. I wonder if I can get Scott Frost to explain to my Book how I really won this play. Maybe he can help forge a compromise where I pay off the loss with Itchy and Scratchy money? I will keep you posted. Otherwise, here’s what we are betting on this week:
From our list of B1G games above, I am actually pulling the trigger on Oregon +3 vs. Nebraska and Duke +6.5 vs. Northwestern…..You thought I I would sit both of the ‘degenerates only’ games from above? I thought you knew me. One note on Northwestern: Home favorites who scored less than 10 points the previous week are just 140-204 ATS.
USC +9 vs. Stanford; Texas A/M +3.5 vs. Auburn; Mississippi St +14 vs. LSU…..Lumping all these together following this trend: Road conference dogs of a home win and cover are 129-74 ATS over the last decade. I’d like to think we can get two of these three to cash. USC looked awful against Alabama, but so does everybody else. And because of that debacle, the spread for this game has increased from –4.5 two weeks ago to the 9-point line we see now. As I like to always say in these situations, the outcome will likely fall in the middle of those numbers. As for the SEC games under this umbrella: Is the correct team even favored in the Texas A/M-Auburn game? And Mississippi State is probably the last place team in the SEC West, but dogs of at least a touchdown in low Over/Under total games (this one is 45) are also pretty solid plays. You probably don’t believe me. I don’t know if I even believe me, but we’re rolling with the Bulldogs on this trend anyway with the Trojans and Aggies.
Syracuse +14 vs. USF…..Did you know the Orange are 38-24 ATS when playing in a home
game off a home game? Now you do. Carrier Dome Magic was actually a lights out play when I first started picking games in the late 90s, but, like everything with the Syracuse program, fell apart during those lean, dark years when GERG ran things. But it’s been on the rebound with a 5-4 ATS mark over the last few seasons as the program slowly climbs off the mat. That includes last week’s loss and no cover against Louisville. With the home trend taking a loss last week, we’re on it this week in our ‘Playing The Percentages, Strawberry’ pick of the week. Hopefully, our patience pays off. I really wanted to take the Orange and all those points against the Cards in the Friday night game last week. In the end, I backed off because I doubted the Orange were ready for one of the nation’s best teams just yet. I figured there would be better times later in the season to play on one of our favorite coaches in his new stop, Dino Babers. And here we are. USF is more Syracuse’s speed and they’re catching a juicy two touchdowns. Go Orange! Go Carrier Dome!
After five plays combined the first two weeks, we’re on six games this weekend. What could go wrong?