Upon Further Review 2016: Defense vs UCF

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FORMATION NOTES: Okay. I added a column. "D Pack" is short for defensive package and lists the personnel. 4-2-5 is Michigan's standard with two ILBs and Peppers on the field. Peppers counts as part of the 5 because he can play CB and S, which he did in this game. 3-2-6 lifts a DL for (currently) a safety. There was one 4-0-7 with Peppers at LB and six other DBs on the field.

I'm still sifting through what I want to do with the other columns. I'm probably going to split Front into Front and Coverage, but given how complicated coverages are these days and my lack of ability to see downfield sometimes that'll be noisy data.

Anyway. Most of the stuff wasn't crazy. I called this 4-3 SAM slide, as it's a 4-3 even with Peppers on the end of the line:

This was a more standard 4-3.

PERSONNEL NOTES: Almost zero rotation in this game. Starting defense when the whole way, with all 68 snaps given to the starting  DBs. Kinnel and Watson got 10 and 7 snaps in various dime packages; Lavert Hill got in for that 4-0-7 play.

Peppers, Gedeon, and McCray all missed one snap. The DL rotated six guys close to evenly. By snap counts: Winovich(55), Glasgow(47), Godin(40), Wormley(36), Gary(33), Hurst(33). Marshall got 13 and was the only other DL to play.

[After THE JUMP: calm with bursts of WTF]

Really?

275 yards rushing

Well, okay. That wasn't ideal. But most of this fits into two categories: early-season-new-defense busts and over-eager puppies at defensive end losing contain. Both are fixable.

The QB scrambles are going to happen to everyone every once in a while; Michigan gave them up at an unfortunately high rate. There were four that cross the line of scrimmage, gaining a total of 98 yards. That's an extra 20 carry running back having a good day.

Usually the culprit was a guy going in a wrong gap, as Rashan Gary does here:

And Ben Gedeon does here:

Gary's a freshman. Gedeon's miss is a little concerning but like everyone else he's in a new defense. Some rate of busting is inevitable.

When it wasn't simply missing assignments it was usually a defensive end refusing to give up in a detrimental way. This was usually Winovich; he got way out of his lane on the final big scramble and was pulled for Lawrence Marshall for a while after that one. On the bench they were probably telling him that sometimes you do have to give up on your edge rush, admit defeat, and turn into a boring guy who just tries to contain.

I don't expect this to continue. Gary and Winovich will both get better mentally. And the return of Taco Charlton will be a huge improvement in this department. Charlton's rushing style is to blast through an OL, not loop around him. He naturally avoids the kind of contain issues an undersized and dogged Winovich is prone to. Getting back Mone will also send Wormley out to DE more often, where he was very good a year ago at preventing these kind of issues.

So these mean nothing?

Nothing.

You have absolutely zero concerns that this will bite us in an important game?

I mean, it could happen. John Navarre once ran for 50 yards against Iowa. I have no concerns this will be significantly worse than last year once guys get their assignments down.

Okay but the touchdowns are all , right?

The 34-yarder was just a bust. I don't think it's on Gedeon, as some have suggested. It's one of the DL on the backside of the play. Michigan sends Peppers off the edge, so that's one gap. The two DL should be in the two gaps next to Peppers. Instead they're in one:

Godin stunted back around Gary; Gary drove on a slant and got boxed out. I have no idea which guy it is. Gary would make more sense because he's a freshman, but this stunt makes little sense in the context of the play. I split it after finding a weak justification to do so.

The big one is something that exposed a couple of potential problems. UCF runs their edge read play. This is a zone read variant that exploits modern DE's shuffle technique by shooting the back to the outside immediately. Michigan's not in great position to deal with this but it's not the worst, either. Problem #1 is Mike McCray, who's too focused on the back:

He's got to know that he's got a blocker outside of him and that they're going to try to edge him; instead of focusing on that blocker and shedding him he ends up taking that contact without even looking:

WR locks his hands in on McCray's chest plate and now he's in trouble. Some people have complained about holding; I don't think it is because of the placement of the WR's hands. McCray let those hands in there by not even contesting them. He loses this block, and he's a 250 pound LB getting hit by a UCF receiver.

That's step one. Step two is Dymonte Thomas putting on his Interesting Times hat and blowing the fill. Neither of those items are busts that we can write off as the cost of a new defense.

I do wonder why McCray is split out over the slot here instead of Peppers. If I was Don Brown I'd be putting Peppers in the gray area on every damn play like this.

And the screens?

There were fewer of them than I remembered. UCF hit bubbles for 15 and 7 yards and a flare for 9. They stood out in memory because of the absolute dearth of successful edge plays a year ago and the fact that they seemed set up for success pre-snap, with Michigan playing two guys over a bunch of three and maintaining a super deep safety. Against this quarterback the deep safety seems completely unnecessary, and so I wonder if this was Michigan trying not to tip their hand. FWIW, late in the game they did start putting three guys in close quarters with WR bunches.

The first one had to be just a straight up bust since Michigan had one cornerback over three guys, with Peppers motioning inside to a LB spot just before the snap and never actually getting set. On another I don't know what Peppers is looking at:

You'd think that bubble motion would draw a response similar to last year's. Instead he's running at nobody in particular. I don't get it.

Also sort of in this category, here's a zone arc thing on which the tight end motions out and a screen looks like a solid gain:

Hill's not looking at the edge threat and Stribling's not getting off his block. A QB who just throws that is likely to find he added a chunk of yards to his resume for not very much.

I wasn't a huge fan of what happened on the edge here, but getting Peppers back on that job should put a halt to edge plays.

These are a number of things that we're just kind of hand-waving away.

It's hard not to when this—

CHA—

--shut up with the spinny guy already CHART is what both PFF and I spat out. It is ridiculous. I'm guessing +67.5 for the DL is an all time record:

[NOTE: PFF grading works out differently than mine. In UFR zero is bad for DL; it's average in PFF. Their scale seems to be about a third or a half of mine. PFF has a "penalty" section that I've elected to omit for space's sake, which is why the individual components might not add up to the "overall." number. I'll note when it's a big discrepancy.]

PFF was actually higher on the performance that I was; I thought Gary had enough busts to take him down to meh; they ranked him on par with the Glasgows and Wormleys of the world. I was iffy on the linebackers; PFF had all of them solidly positive.

UCF's OL struggled against SCSU (not that SCSU) in their opener, so this was always likely to happen. I just can't get that exercised about scattered errors that happened to be gauss rifle shots to the head in the context of utter dominance elsewhere. Without Charlton, Mone, and Lewis.

Nothing from this game stood out as a personnel issue that should persist, and when UCF tried to do anything other than fritz around the edges it got crushed. This power play was the most hilarious of the various events. Hurst gets a double and stands up to it. Every other DL making contact with a UCF player blows him out:

This is why I am sanguine about happenings.

There was one lingering concern I had.

WHAT IS IT

I didn't like Michigan's reaction to the various covered TE sets they showed. Something about their approach just seemed off. The clearest example I have is a pop slant that McCray deflected; despite the successful outcome of the play that dude is wide open:

He's wide open because Michigan's spending Clark and Thomas covering nobody in particular. There are no WRs to that side of the field. Once the play starts both backs commit to the other side. It feels like a team prepared for this pop slant is going to send Thomas at it as soon as they read run action.

That and what I called "edge read" where the back just jetted out of the backfield as fast as possible and the screens that didn't seem like clear busts were a large number of RPS minus plays. Michigan did not look 100% well-prepped to take on Frost's offense.

Whether that's a natural consequence of a new defense, Michigan declining to put their real answers on film, Frost catching Michigan off guard, or a continued structural defect is something that can only be answered by time.

Gotdang, those DL numbers. How?

Michigan took the unusual step of leaving in their starting defense for this whole game. I have no idea why. Maybe they were mad about the touchdowns. In literally other 30-point clubbing I've UFRed the starters are out for at least the fourth quarter and often chunks of the third. This was an unusual opportunity to run up the UFR score.

That said, I be like dang. The number that jumps out next to the various other numbers is Chase Winovich, who had a monster game. A sack/strip is always a good start towards a double digit day:

While I think that dogged pursuit getting rewarded was part of the problem on UCF's last major scramble, if he can continue to do that the busted pockets are much easier to take. And on this play going gung-ho all the way around the edge may be correct; Michigan's got a couple of linebackers in short zones, so a scramble isn't going to get much. The QB has a lane directly in front of his face but passes it up because of Michigan's defensive call.

Meanwhile Winovich was thumping guys back as in the clip just above this section. That was the most surprising part of his day. I wasn't expecting him to remind me of Hurst by blowing guys into the backfield.

Meanwhile, Glasgow was rampant as always. I'm pretty sure that he's in a screen spy here and this isn't him reading the play and reacting, which would be ridiculous:

But even if that's an assignment he's executing, Michigan has a nose tackle who can be tasked with tackling a RB outside the numbers on a screen and that's just fine. Glasgow further demonstrated his range on the long touchdown, when he was the closest player to the back despite having to fight off a cut block:

If Thomas ends up forcing that back the most likely outcome is Glasgow making a tackle on a 10.3 100M guy 15 yards downfield.

Also he throws people around sometimes like he's Willie Henry.

Interior pass rush is so rare and Michigan gets a ton of it.

Hurst looked much like his old self, flashing that trademark burst to dump opponents in the backfield:

He blows up the center on this play with one hand:

Reports about his injury were that is was of the nagging variety, so I don't doubt he's less than 100%. Hard to tell against this level of opposition.

Wormley… well, it's very Chris Wormley that he racked up the highest number of anyone and I didn't specifically clip anything for him other than the holistic run-crushing above. I will endeavor to remember that I should clip his +2s, of which he has many.

All of these gentleman annihilated their opposition. Thus the numbers.

Gary not so much though?

He had a lot of positives, including this tantalizing preview of his career:

I dinged him twice for two-point deductions, once on a scramble that was in his gap and once on the 34-yarder. He looks like what he is: a true freshman who's going to be ridiculous.

Is Matt Godin really just a step or two behind Ryan Glasgow, as Harbaugh said?

Uh… no. I say this at least half out of Glasgow respect, though. Godin has been solid so far. He has range similar to Glasgow's (because he's really an SDE) and can get off single blocks pretty effectively:

Holding up to pounding has always been his weak point and will probably continue to be. He hasn't had to deal with much of that yet.

[SOMEWHAT ODD SIDE NOTE: I know this is a DT but this play is actually an excellent example of what McCray should have done on the 87-yarder. Godin focuses on the blocker, gives ground to get around him, gets his hands inside the opposition's, and uses them to rip the guy away.]

This felt like a step back from the linebackers, but PFF?

I might be a harsh grader when it comes to linebackers, though I've always warned that if a guy comes out at zero in UFR that I think he's been fine. The PFF numbers above are far more positive for reasons I can't yet explain. I do think they're liable to offer more points than I do on a successful blitz. I might be underrating timing and flying up under control.

Anyway, I did think the LBs came back to earth. I don't think their performance from the opener was their actual level, though, so I'm not too disappointed. McCray continued to be very effective on blitzes; I also liked his smooth transition from inside to out on this triple option:

He steps forward and threatens to dump himself in the LOS, which is what I think induces a pull; then he reads that pull and is out on the QB. He had the issue on the 87-yarder and I thought he was in the wrong spot on the 34-yarder.

Gedeon had a couple of questionable moments. On this play he way overplays the outside run that Michigan seems to have covered:

He gets on one side of a block definitively and there's a big lane up the gut. He did that again on the 34-yarder so maybe this is somewhat by design, but with the edge completely shut off there Gedeon is running himself into areas of the field the ball cannot go. (By the way, check out the safety fill from Kinnel on this play. Pretty good.)

But he looked good as a blitzer, too, and he hasn't done anything yet that causes me to throw my hands up. He's properly physical. His athleticism is an asset. Here he's blitzing to the backside of the play and is still able to get around and prevent a third-down conversion with help from McCray:

I don't think either guy from last year gets there. Maybe to tackle eight yards downfield. Not before the marker. (Meanwhile, McCray goes upfield of a block here and I'm not sure how I feel about it. Note, though, that he didn't run around it. He violently discarded his blocker. He does get there to help once Gedeon starts the stop so that's a plus.)

We haven't seen either guy take on many blocks downfield, so that's still in question. That may not be an important part of the skillset given the DL.

We haven't even talked about Peppers, Mr. Flying Up Draft Boards.

We touched on him in the screen thing.

Cumong man.

Fine, fine. Peppers didn't do anything game-changing—turns out the forced fumble was actually Chris Wormley on this play…

…but we did see some hints of his ability to disrupt pockets and just hammer people. That hit above drew an "ohhhhhh" from the stadium for good reason, and a couple of late blitzes on which he came free demonstrated his superior explosion. He gets from linebacker depth to the QB in a flash:

Brandon Harrison disease did pop up on a similar rush on the next play, albeit on a sack:

If you don't get a blocker on Peppers he's going to do something bad to you. Now let's change whatever we need to change to put him over the slot consistently.

Cornerbacks? Anything yet? I mean, nothing yet. But anything?

They looked good in very limited opportunities to determine anything about them. Clark had an excellent PBU:

When targeted Stribling looked to be in position to do the same only to watch throws sail anywhere but the receiver. Receivers were blanketed as far as I could see them downfield, which was about 15 yards when no throw deep was forthcoming.

I was disappointed with their run support. On an early run I neglected to cut Clark got shot downfield and pancaked by his man, and Stribling didn't apply any force to his blocker on the 87 yard run. Don't know how Clark got his solidly positive run D grade.

Heroes?

Every DL who played except Marshall.

Maybe not so heroic?

Thomas did enough good to get back up to or close to zero, but that long run was largely on him. I thought the LBs were a bit shaky; PFF not so much.

What does it mean for Colorado and the future?

Probably not much either way. UCF was bad enough that I don't think we can be sure we learned anything about the line, and the things that went wrong are fixable, mostly.

Michigan defensive ends need to cool it a tiny bit. Sometimes you have to know when your speed rush has lost and convert to a power rush or just plain old containment.

Busts are happening and will continue to do so for a bit. Mental errors were widespread, with about 5 or 6 players contributing.

Chase Winovich could be a find. Even considering the competition level this was a stock-up performance from a first-time starter and redshirt sophomore. There wasn't much difference between him and the rest of the line.