Despite nailing the one pick from opening week made here. And even though we added a winner on twitter Friday night. I'm here offering an early season mea culpa. I boldy predicted every B1G team's Over/Under on wins last week but with the upsets in the Wisconsin and Northwestern games two of them already look like dead meat. That's the problem with making a lot of bets and picks. You always end up making dumb ones. I wonder if there's an app for that? Let's look back and see what happened.
My take on Wisconsin was their offensive line was too young and not quite good enough yet, especially in light of last year's performance and the Voltz injury this summer, to stand up against the monster defensive fronts they were slated to face during the season's first half. So of course they go out and beat LSU in the opener as 13.5-point underdogs.
[Jonathan Daniel - Getty Images]
Starting an offensive front with four redshirt sophomores, a Division III transfer, and a combined 21 total collegiate starts--not to mention bringing in redshirt freshmen off the bench when needed--the Badgers outplayed the LSU defensive front in the trenches. The final numbers do not look great with just 3.2 yards per rush. But the tailback combo of Corey Clement and Dare Ogunbowale rushed for 130 yards on 30 carries. There weren't any truck size holes. There weren't any vintage Wisconsin showstopping big runs either. But they held their blocks just long enough to give their tailbacks room to move forward for decent gains. Toss in seven critical catches by tight end Troy Fumagali, six for first downs and a seventh for the final chunk of yards before the game winning field goal, and the offense had enough gas to move the football against the Tigers.
Had they converted more than 3.2 points per scoring, a bugaboo from a year ago, they would have won going away. Ditto if QB Bart Houston doesn't throw a pair of killer interceptions resulting in a swing of 10-14 points. Luckily, LSU's Brandon Harris trumped those tosses with an even worse pick on the Tiger's potential game winning drive clinching the game for the Badgers.
That pick was also a big blow to last week's Under 7.5 wins pick. There are still plenty of challenges ahead, and Wisconsin still has four games they'll be an underdog in before the end of October. They will need to lose all of those for us to have any shot at this one.
Despite the LSU outcome, the lines have moved against the Badgers in three of those games. They're now catching more points in games against Michigan, +12.5 up from 11.5; Ohio State, +7.5 up from 6; and Iowa, +4, up from +3.5. Their first big game of that run is in Week 4 at Michigan State. While that game looks like a toss up now, especially in light of the Spartan's weak effort against Furman in their opener, the line hasn't budged and is still MSU -3.
[Hit THE JUMP for sense in a senseless world.]
[Keshia Johnson - The Daily Northwestern]
As for Northwestern, the Wildcats lost when QB Clayton Thorson fumbled fighting for extra yards near the goal line trying to score the game winning points. Northwestern won the yards per play battle 6.1 to 5.0, but were trailing late because their defense could not get Western offense's off the field for most of the day. A year ago, Northwestern allowed their opponents to convert just 32.6% of their third and fourth down conversions. But Western converted 11-for-22 in those situations, including all four fourth down attempts. They scored 16 points on those drives with the fourth down conversions.
Western ran 84 offensive snaps to Northwestern's 53, but that is only part of the tale. The Wildcats opened the game on a 15-play, 75 yard TD drive. After that, Western ran twice as many snaps as Northwestern the rest of the way, 84 to 39. That included a stretch beginning in the second quarter when Western ran 41 plays to Northwestern's 14 and outgained the Cats 195 to 29. The Broncos trailed 7-0 when this stretch began, but were ahead 13-7 midway through the third quarter when it ended. Western killed off 10 minutes of the second quarter on an 18-play field goal drive and strangled half the third period on a 16-play drive, netting another a field goal. Those were monster walk through the desert drives during which Western only passed the ball nine times. It was a disappointing effort by a Northwestern defense that has a ton of athleticism, but looks vulnerable against quality, dedicated rushing attacks.
Northwestern starts the new campaign 0-1 overall and in games decided by a TD or less, after going 5-0 in such contests a season ago. And the underdogs are on another run in Northwestern games. The team catching points is now on a 19-10 ATS run in their games with 11 outright upsets. In order for the Over 6.5 wins to now hit, Northwestern will have to avoid the underdog trap in games against Illinois State, Duke, Purdue, Minnesota, Illinois, and Indiana while springing one themselves against one of the contenders in the East or West on their schedule.
That's a quick review of last week, here's a quick look ahead to this week in the conference with some picks below.....
Which Big Ten Stadium Is This?
For the second straight week, a B1G team is playing at Florida International. A week after Indiana covered as 10-point favorites with a late flurry of points against the Panthers, it's Maryland's turn. The Terrapins are 10.5-point chalk. If you want an apples-to-apples comparison of two of Michigan's B1G East brethren, then check this one out. There's your reason to tune into the Friday night game this week. Don't ask me for a good reason to watch. I don't have one of those.
Indiana hosts Ball State, and the Hoosiers will be, believe it or not (you probably will), trying to break a three game losing streak to the Cardinals. Ball State has won each of the most three recent matches with the Hoosiers in 2008, 2011, and 2012. They are a big reason the Hoosiers have lost to a non Power 5 school in 9 of the last 15 years. The Hoosiers are 17.5-point favorites, but they'll have to start closing out drives if they want to cover that number. Against Florida International, every Indiana drive in the first half and 10 of their 12 total real drives, reached Panther territory. But the Hoosiers didn't scored a TD until their eighth such drive, early in the fourth quarter. They kicked a field goal on one of those drives early in the game, and did everything but find the endzone on the others. They punted three times in FIU territory, missed a field goal, fumbled, and turned it over on downs. This was the main reason IU needed a 22-0 fourth quarter to put the Panthers away. We'll see if WR Simmie Cobbs Jr. return to the lineup after sitting out the opener on suspension helps finish those scoring drives.
Ohio State covered the spread by 39.5 points last week in their 77-10 win over Bowling Green. It was the largest win against the number of the weekend. This week they're 28.5-point favorites over Tulsa with a trip to Oklahoma on deck. Speaking of that showdown, the Sooners have dropped from 6-point favorites to 1-point underdogs against Ohio State in the wake of their defeat to Houston a week ago.
Michigan is favored by 36 points against UCF. It's the first time Michigan has been a 4-touchdown or more favorite in their first two games since 2003 when they opened as 34.5- and 28.5-point chalk against Central Michigan and Houston respectively. They covered both games.
Ah, sweet 2003. John Navarre authored one of the best single seasons at QB in program history. Everyone wears 16 jerseys today because of it. So many other great highlights. Chris Perry's zillion carries against MSU (below via WolverineHistorian) and his improbable Heisman candidacy. The 14-point win in the 100th Anniversary of The Game. The season saving, Friday night comeback at Minnesota. Jason Avant's crazy touchdown catch against Northwestern. And an underrated moment earlier in the season when the week after beating Houston, Michigan trounced Notre Dame 38-0, and the students taunted the Irish with 'Houston Is Better' chants. News Flash: Houston is still better than Notre Dame.
LaMarr Woodley, Leon Harris, Jake Long, Steve Breaston, Prescott Burgess, and Shawn Crable were freshmen. Jim Harbaugh was busy tutoring Rich Mirer and Tee Martin as Oakland Raiders quarterbacks coach. Jabrill Peppers celebrated his eighth birthday. Probably by tearing kids arms off in Red Rover.
That 2003 team was the last Michigan squad to begin and end the season in the AP top-10. It's also the last Wolverines team to beat Michigan State and Ohio State in the same season. As for those rivalry games this year, the results of the first weekend caused both future lines to move. Michigan jumped from 3-point favorites to -6.5 at Michigan State. They've grown to 6.5-point underdogs, up from six points, against the Buckeyes.
Iowa hosts Iowa State in what has become the annual 'Can Iowa Avoid An Embarrassing Loss To Its Lowly In State Rival Crushing Whatever Preseason Expectations They May Have' Bowl. That's a mouthful. It's probably why the locals have dubbed it the Cy-Hawk Game instead.
The Hawks are heavy home favorites, laying 15.5 points. But keep in mind, the Cyclones have won three of the last five in this series, including the last two played at Kinnick Stadium. Last time these two teams played here, Iowa State won outright 20-17 as 13.5-point underdogs. The Cyclones seem to be at their feistiest in this series when counted out the most. Over the last dozen years, Iowa State has been a double digit underdog in this game six times. They covered the spread five times with three outright wins, including the aforementioned 2014 victory. Despite that history, I'd need more points before peaking my interest. But if you get burned by the chalk here, don't say you were not warned.
We get our first look at Purdue and Illinois against FBS teams. You know, for folks interested in those sort of things. Total bettors might be part of that group. Did you know the Over is on a 20-8-1 run in Purdue home games against FBS opponents. Last season, the Over went 5-1 in those contests. The winning team averaged 48.5 points per game, exceeding 50 points three times and scoring 48 in another. During the life span of this 4-year Over run, the average combined score of these games has been 62.87 points. The Over in this one has been set at 62.5. Clever oddsmakers.
Illinois games have gone the other way. Last week's win over Murray State was the sixth straight Illini home game to go Under the total and 10th in the last 11 games in Champagne. All of their games with Power-5 teams have gone Under during this run with Illinois themselves only averaging 14.5 points per game. Lovie Smith should feel right at home with an offense like that. Jokes aside, I am looking forward to seeing how the first year of Lovie's tenure goes. It's an intriguing hire. Can he get the Illini looking like a credible team?
Purdue is a 6-point home dog to Cincinnati while the Illini are catching 10 points at home against UNC. Despite those scoring trends above, I'm not jumping on either bandwagon. I am not much of a total player. Especially Unders. I hate cheering for Unders. And in nine of my last 11 Under bets, the opening kickoff has been returned for a touchdown. I'm pretty sure that's true. It feels like it's true and that's all that matters. Here's what I do like this week:
Pitt -5 vs Penn State.....Geat red zone defense meets poor red zone offense. Pitt played great situational football defensively in the red zone a year ago. The Panthers were 39th nationally in red zone touchdown percentage allowed, but they really picked it up against the better part of their schedule. In nine games against Power-5 opponents, Pitt held foes to more red zone field goal attempts, 13, than they allowed TDs, 12, out of 26 total attempts. Their 45.9% TD percentage allowed was 8th among their fellow Power-5 teams in head-to-head games, one spot below mighty Alabama. With 8 starters back on defense, including some burgeoning defensive back weapons, expect this to keep up. Narduzzi's Michigan State teams rode great red zone defense to a lot of success and he's on his way to showing the ACC the same thing.
Meanwhile, Penn State has been abysmal at cashing in scoring drives on offense. Has any team left more points on than Penn State has the last two seasons? Probably not. They were 99th in the country a year ago in red zone touchdown percentage and 120th in 2014. Over those two years, they've settled for a field goal or less on more scoring chances than they've scored touchdowns. It was the same old story in the opener against Kent, failing to score touchdowns on 3 of 5 red zone drives. Not maxing out on scoring drives will hurt as this rivalry renews hostilities.
Another factor for Pitt. They're equipped with one of the country's best offensive lines and an assortment of tailback weapons. Look for them to take control of the game against Penn State's young defensive front that allowed 6 yards per rush (sacks adjusted) to Kent, including 6.3 yards a pop to a freshman running back.
Virginia Tech +12.5 vs. Tennessee......Is there a different game film than the one showing Tennessee getting whipped on both sides of the ball against Appalachian State? The Hokies are solid in the trenches and should be able to duplicate enough of ASU's successes to keep this game close. Virginia Tech does not inspire the same fear it once did, but the Hokies have been a solid underdog investment in recent seasons with an 8-4 ATS record when catching points. This will be a one score game.
Washington State +11.5 at Boise State....The bloom has been off the Bet Boise State At Home Rose for several years. The Broncos have only had one winning season against the spread at home since joining the Mountain West Conference in 2011 and are 11-20 ATS on the Smurf Turf in the process. They didn't cover a single home game during their first season in their new league back in 2011, and have yet to bounce back as a solid investment at home, going 11-14 ATS since. They actually lost their final two home games outright a year ago as heavy chalk against New Mexico and Air Force. Washington State lost last week to FCS team Eastern Washington even though they were 27.5-point favorites. That's why we like them this week.
I always like teams going on the road, especially if they're catching points, a week after being upset the way the Cougs were a week ago. This strategy seems to work its best earlier in the season when reactions to the prior weeks results are more severe. A week ago this line was -5.5, so we're getting almost full touchdown more because of WSU's loss Saturday. We'll take a chance the result ends up between those two numbers, if not a little closer.
That's a card with two ACC teams in non conference game and Washington State. We promised you dark places a week ago. We're here. Be safe out there.