Fee Fi Foe Film: UCF

Opposing QB drops ball for no reason, UCF turns it into a FG. Why did I watch this?

This week's FFFF came with an added degree of difficulty, as UCF's opener against FCS squad South Carolina State was broadcast only on ESPN3, a terrible video service that might as well not have fast-forward/rewind capabilities. As you can imagine, that makes breaking down film a bit tougher. (EDIT: AAAAAARRRRGH.)

Also making it tougher: this was a terrible football game. SCSU is not good at all, but it took a while for UCF to put them away because they couldn't finish drives; kicker Matthew Wright tied the school single-game record for made field goals (4) with over ten minutes left in the second quarter.

So, yes, this FFFF is a day late and condensed into one post. Brian literally ordered me to stop taking notes once I got through the first half. This non-conference schedule sure is something.

OFFENSE

Personnel. Seth's diagram [click to embiggen]:

Spread, Pro-Style, or Hybrid? Spread, spread, spread. Scott Frost's last job was as Oregon's offensive coordinator.

Basketball on Grass or MANBALL? Mostly zone blocking; just about every run play involves a read/option of some sort.

Hurry it up or grind it out? UCF isn't quite up to Oregon speed yet, but they still move at a brisk pace. They caught SCSU unprepared on a couple quick snaps on third-and-short situations to get easy first downs.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the breakdown.]

Quarterback Dilithium Level (Scale: 1 [Navarre] to 10 [Denard]): Justin Holman averaged seven yards on his nine non-sack carries, including a 17-yard speed option keeper for a touchdown—while SCSU played it horribly, he showed good speed. Holman isn't a guy who's going to juke defenders in the open field; he had a promising scramble end abruptly when he was one-on-one with a safety in space, tried a move, and kinda just fell down. Michigan just has to keep him from going north-south. He gets a 7 because of his straight-line speed.

Holman had some trouble making the correct read in the read-option game, as well; he had a few gives that ran his RB right into a wall.

Dangerman: While he didn't do much in this game—and you'll see why when I get to the Hennechart—sophomore receiver Tre'Quan Smith is the reigning AAC offensive freshman of the year. He's a boom-or-bust type who only caught 54% of his targets in 2015 but averaged 14 YPC on the ones he hauled in. He's a pretty good representation of the offense as a whole right now: a good athlete who hasn't quite put it all together yet.

Zook Factor: Nonexistent. UCF was very aggressive in fourth-and-short situations, converting three-of-four in the game largely because of tempo.

HenneChart: So. I only charted the first half because, again, Brian lectured me about proper time management when I mentioned I had four-plus pages of notes on the first half. That was more than enough to get a read on Holman's passing ability. Reminder: this happened against FCS competition.

That might be the worst half I've seen from a passing perspective, especially given the level of competition. Holman didn't get a lot of help from his O-line, but he exascerbated that by holding onto the ball too long in the pocket, and on a couple occasions he sensed pressure that wasn't there and scrambled for minimal gains.

Holman had two very late throws underneath: one should've been intercepted by a linebacker undercutting a quick hitch in Delano Hill-like fashion, the other was a tipped ball two yards downfield that somehow wound up in the hands of a UCF receiver who wasn't the intended recipient. He consistently underthrew receivers on downfield routes. He missed back-to-back opportunities for touchdowns on a late first-half drive, first leaving a flag route short to allow a beaten defensive back to catch back up to the play, then winging this throw three yards wide of his open target despite zero pressure:

all screencaps today, since pulling video from ESPN3 is far more diffiicult than expected.

To top it off, Holman had a Hackenberg-esque performance on screens, turfing two of his three attempts in the half to turn potential big gains into nothing. A lot of his short throws either took receivers off of their feet or made them go to the ground.

OVERVIEW

I don't think I need to cover the passing game too much more given the last section. Holman really held them back, and that game doesn't appear to be an anomaly: he completed 51% of his passes for 5.1 YPA with 7 TDs and 14 INTs in 2015. UCF has some good athletes in the receiving corps—co-stater Tristan Payton is a former top-250 recruit and backup Dredrick Snelson was a UA All-American last year—but with even screen passes an adventure, they don't have many chances to show their skill, and Michigan's defensive backs will provide a much greater challenge.

I wasn't impressed with the offensive line, which had a tough time opening holes in the running game; after removing sacks, UCF averaged 4.2 YPC on 52 rushes, and that was with SCSU occasionally forgetting to check the QB on option plays. They didn't pass-block well, either, giving up three sacks and several more pressure. This was a designed rollout against a three-man rush on which the center somehow managed to get beat to the rollout side and the guard chipped, um, air.

That resulted in a sack, and it's tough to blame Holman for not expecting to face any pressure in that situation.

The guards were routinely overpowered in both run- and pass-blocking, which doesn't bode well for their ability to handle Michigan's defensive line. As a result, the running backs as a group didn't have many opportunities to hit the open field. Freshman Jawon Hamilton looked like the most dangerous of the committee; he's small and very quick to hit the hole.

At least the kicker is money.

DEFENSE

the increasingly rare pure 3-4.

Personnel: Seth's diagram [click to embiggen]:

Base Set? A pure 3-4 front. UCF tends to stick to their base personnel. OLB Shaquem Griffin is a former defensive back who plays the Darron Lee walkout linebacker role when there's a slot receiver on the field.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the breakdown.]

Man or zone coverage? A lot of two-deep zone, especially on standard downs. They mixed in a fair amount of man, however, especially when blitzing, which...

Pressure: GERG or Greg? ...they did a lot, especially on obvious passing downs. It's tough to tell how much of this was because of the opponent; UCF had great success with zero blitzes (man coverage across the board, no deep safeties), but I'm no so sure running those is a good idea against Michigan. SCSU managed to get some deep shots off against those blitzes and couldn't connect; their QB wasn't good and the receivers aren't future NFL draft picks.

Dangerman: I was especially impressed with Shaquil Griffin, who had a second-half interception and made two first-half PBUs on deep shots when he was left on an island on zero blitzes. He's got excellent size and the plays he made on the ball will translate against any competition. I wouldn't be surprised if UCF tasked him with shadowing Jehu Chesson. (Side note: yes, the two Griffins are twins, and they've got a heck of a backstory; Shaquem, the spacebacker, was born with amniotic band syndrome, which cost him his left hand. Shaquil had some interest from bigger schools but only considered the ones that would take the twins as a package deal.)

Freshman DE Trysten Hill made his presence felt in the backfield often. He had a TFL and would've made a bigger mark on the box score if he had more help up front; he moves very well for a 295-pounder. He's also the only starter in the front seven who's appropriately sized for his position.

OVERVIEW

I have to throw up my hands for the most part here since SCSU was abject on offense. Both cornerbacks, especially Griffin, looked like they could provide a viable test for Michigan's receivers; the other corner, DJ Killings, didn't get tested much in coverage but had an authoritative stop on a receiver screen—he had four TFLs last year, so that appears to be a strength in his game, and one he'll need if he's matched up on Amara Darboh.

The other Griffin, Shaquem, may only have one hand, but that didn't stop him from getting good pressure on edge rushes. While he'll have trouble holding up against the run, he'll test M's tackles with speed rushes, and he's got a decent size/athleticism combination for holding up in coverage against the TEs.

The front seven features undersized players who can be disruptive—the nose tackle had a couple Mike Martin moments—but they're so undersized that I have a hard time seeing them replicating their success against the run when they face Michigan. One of the starting inside linebackers weighs 217 pounds; I kept thinking he was a very aggressive safety.

While SCSU's QB was often incapable of taking advantage, there were usually some big windows to throw into when UCF dropped into a cover 2, even though they tended to play soft at the line. There are a few individual players here who could provide some trouble; on the whole, though, I don't see Michigan having much trouble moving the ball against this squad.