Upon Further Review 2016: Defense vs Hawaii

SPONSOR NOTES: Homesure Lending returns to sponsor this post, and as a bonus he's sent the blog to Iowa by finding us a block of five together. This will create glorious road trip content. (Matt has stipulated that I clarify he is not to blame if the Iowa game turns out like that stupid triple overtime Penn State game; we have agreed to collectively blame the first commenter on this post.)

In addition to being a gentleman replete with Michigan tickets, he is also a good man to know if you need a mortgage. It's striking that we actually get non-astroturfed comments about positive experiences with Matt not infrequently.

If you're buying a home or refinancing, he's the right guy to call.

PRO FOOTBALL FOCUS NOTES: Good news, everybody: we've purchased PFF's Michigan and opponent data for the season, which will allow us to do a bunch of things previously impractical. We've got snap counts, for one, and their grades, and some drill-down stuff I'll reference when it seems relevant to what I'm saying.

One important disclaimer: I'm not looking at this stuff until I go over the game myself, to prevent confirmation bias.

FORMATION NOTES: Normal Brian is super happy Don Brown is Michigan's defensive coordinator. UFR Brian is frickin' pissed. I'm going to split the next UFR's "Formation" column into "personnel" and "formation" because I give up trying to jam that all into a few words. Even that figures to be insufficient.

About halfway through this game I decided that:

1. Michigan is a 4-2-5 defense.
2. Sometimes they run a 3-2-6.
3. I need a "box" column denoting persons in said box with maybe a .5 for gray area guys.
4. I need to stop bothering with even-odd stuff since that's not actually important for this level of analysis.

And then momentum carried me through. You improve the most between week one and week two; I'll endeavor to do so.

Anyway. I'm going to try to call out safeties and depth, insofar as this is possible. This is nickel one-high:

And this was 4-3 over two high:

These are the same personnel packages. Hill is the gray area guy kind of over the slot and Stribling has dropped to be the nominal second safety. Everyone in this secondary has to be able to play multiple roles.

Nickel two high:

And honestly I don't know what to term this:

That is two "safeties" at like six yards. Peppers would bail into a deep zone until he read run, FWIW. Nickel two low, I called it. /shakes fist at Don Brown.

I don't even want to get into the various fronts yet.

PERSONNEL NOTES: Deep breath. The back seven was pretty static and has a clear depth chart. Without Lewis, Stribling (45 snaps) and Clark(51) went just about the whole way until garbage time. Ditto Thomas(54), Hill(54), Peppers(54), McCray(44), and Gedeon(54). Brandon Watson (28 snaps but most of those late) had scattered snaps as a nickel corner on passing downs. Usually Michigan lifted a DL when this happened. Tyree Kinnel did get five snaps before the backups came in en masse.

The backups at all these spots are also clear: Kinnel and Hudson at safety, Long and Lavert Hill at corner, Devin Bush and Wroblewski at LB, File Not Found for Peppers.

The line started out with Wormley, Glasgow, Mone, and Charlton across it. Once Mone was out Michigan played a lot of Matt Godin, and they yanked Chris Wormley early. Gary actually got 32 snaps to Wormley's 27. Winovich went the whole way after Taco exited and actually racked up more DL snaps than anyone else with 40.

About midway through the third quarter Michigan unearthed Lawrence Marshall, Michael Dwumfour, Michael Onwenu, and redshirt junior walk-on Garrett Miller. Miller actually played 21 snaps and graded out well per PFF but at 271 on the roster it is highly unlikely he's going to be a contributor going forward unless things are in the darkest timeline. I didn't grade him well, FWIW.

[After THE JUMP: Viking raiders from across the sea / they've come to plunder you and me / oh no i've been stabbed / but our defense makes me glad]

Mercy. /fans self

THERE WILL BE NO MERCY ONLY BLITZES

But didn't you say in UV…

I said Michigan didn't blitz 90% of the time. They did blitz 53% of the time, with four snaps on which they sent six and one where they sent seven. (Note: I only track rushers on passing downs because run blitzes are often difficult to discern with linebackers and safeties aborting to flow with the run play. Blitz numbers on those plays are probably about the same.)

More than half the time is a lot.

Other Don Brown first impressions?

As I mentioned above I'm confused as hell, so I love it. Also I hate it. But I mostly love it because I can't remember even one incident last year in which Michigan came up with an interception of the "oops I didn't see that guy" variety. Delano Hill provided one in this game:

I also enjoyed the coverage that never got tested: Thomas and Stribling swap guys when Hawaii runs a route designed to rub man coverage and even if Hill doesn't pop up in the passing lane Thomas has a good shot at a PBU. Michigan struggled with these concepts a year ago.

You'll probably have to wait a few games before I can give you anything definitive when it comes to themes, but I do have an early one if you'll just ask the thing you want to ask anyway.

So how is this Peppers linebacker thing going to work out?

I don't even know how to answer that.

Use your words.

Yes, great advice, thank you. Words: as the personnel notes, uh, noted, Peppers spent a ton of time in this game as a an honest-to-God safety, and several snaps featured him in a safety/LB gray area I've never seen before because it would be suicide with almost anyone else. On both these snaps Peppers is six yards deep and Michigan appears to expect him to cover a deep third:

His first steps are backwards on each of these plays. Is that linebacker? Is it safety? Yes. No.

They could of course activate him against the run or blitz or whatever. They kept a bunch of things in the garage this week for obvious reasons. What they did demonstrate is that they're going to make you guess which direction he's going on almost every snap.

Meanwhile, slightly removing Peppers from the LOS is strategically excellent because it gives him more time to read, react, and build up momentum. Here he's just cleanup but the thump he lands on the running back is something:

Pulling him back a bit makes life tougher on anyone who would think to block him and allows him to jet through trash at full speed. Whatever it sacrifices in positioning it makes up for by playing into his strengths as a massively fast tiny linebacker. That's in addition to the uncertainty it creates on pre-snap reads when you don't know what the hell his assignment actually is.

Hill was actually preferred as a run defender; Peppers would generally drop and Hill attack:

But sometimes it was Hill on the slot with Thomas dropping and Peppers attacking. They'll throw these guys in a blender all year. It's going to be fascinating.

As for the actual performance, data about the safety stuff is necessarily limited by the fact that Hawaii couldn't block Michigan to save their lives. Early returns are excellent, with the caveat that he was kept entirely clean. The first snap was enticing because Peppers goes from read and react to in the backfield in a flash:

That's the LB version of the explosion that turned him into a screen eraser all last year. He'd follow that up with an awesome solo TFL from that gray-area safety spot:

That ends relevant linebacker-ish clips. He ended up being the second or third guy to the quarterback on a lot of blitzes that turned into jailbreak situations. If future opponents end up blocking McCray and Gedeon, like, at all, his super quick loops will have an impact.

There was one downer, that flashback to early last year when he got lost on a circle route for a chunk play:

He recovered to defend the out route that is the above play's natural counterpart for just a few yards; the above was a little too close to 2015 Utah for my tastes. We saw Peppers improve on two way go stuff over the course of last year, so this is just one play to add to our pile of evidence. It looks like a potential weakness in an otherwise ridiculously good player.

The—

chart that is buried in linebackers

--yes rather LB-heavy chart is also a Don Brown thing:

[NOTE: PFF grading works out differently than mine. In UFR zero is bad for DL; it's average in PFF. Their scale seems to be about a third or a half of mine. PFF has a "penalty" section that I've elected to omit for space's sake, which is why the individual components might not add up to the "overall." number. I'll note when it's a big discrepancy.]

PFF and I disagreed on McCray, who got an awesome number from them and a solid one from me; I chalked up some of his positives to RPS and the pressure metric; often when you come free I'll offer up a relatively paltry +1. They also thought Wormley was a bunch better than I did, but it's pretty close.

I'd caution you to take the metrics with a grain of salt since Michigan substituted so heavily. Three of those coverage minuses went to Watson, for one.

I thought Stribling "got worked"?

Happily, I was wrong about that. For whatever reason Stribling had a Jourdan Lewis game where targeting him is a bad idea and happens anyway.

I was excessively harsh on Stribling because it seemed like he was the guy in the vicinity when Hawaii got yards, ever. Given how frequently he was targeted his performance was quite good, especially because a couple of the things that were bad weren't actually on him. I think he lingered in my memory because he got smoked on first and 25 on that one drive Hawaii had. That is not great Bob.

The rest of it was quite good. When tested Stribling was generally in the receiver's grill:

He had a couple of back shoulder fades he played really well, one of which was a completion. How good his play in those situation was reinforced when Brandon Watson got beat on one later; Watson was in good position and just ran past the WR when he slowed up. Consistently existing on back shoulder throws is capital-H Hard.

On the other hand, after Clark dominated a slant…

…he was literally not targeted again. While that's some excellent coverage I found that odd.

In any case, solid start for Michigan's #2 and #3 corners.

GLASGOW

Yes, that is a monster number for Glasgow in just 36 snaps. The PFF number is even more monster given how they grade.

Glasgow was Michigan's best defensive player, both in quantity and quality. Dude is all the way back, just as smart, and powerful as he blasts to the backfield. One of McCray's sacks was about 70% him. Check out the feint on this play:

OL steps right, Glasgow blasts him, game over man.

The Stribling pick six was about 70% him. This is as fast as pressure comes without a guy coming through unblocked:

He just destroys people. He bursts into them or he just tosses them away:

This is Just Hawaii territory but since Glasgow did this to half the folks he saw last year and was good against the other half I am eagerly awaiting what the senior version looks like. Yee haw.

Also, like gotdang Delano Hill.

Hill was terrific. In addition to the pick six he had a PBU on a deep seam route with zero safety help—Michigan sent the house—on which he got in another one of those subtle jersey pulls we mentioned last year after BYU:

He also crushed a similar route so badly that the ball was ten yards overthrown:

He slashed down a tailback for a TFL; add in a blitz or two and he's a three phases safety just like Peppers. Except not Peppers, of course, but he looked the part of a hybrid space player himself.

Hill was really good a year ago when not making huge mental mistakes and compounding them with efforts to punch the ball out from behind; this was a great start to a senior year that could be eye-opening.

What is your deal with the Big Ten defensive player of the week and your terrible no good grade for him?

Okay, for one, linebacking is hard and I generally shrug my shoulders at a guy coming in at or around zero. +4.5 is legit. I did not grade him as well as PFF did and others seem to have because I assigned the big zone bust on the one real Hawaii drive to him (which is admittedly a guess) and I am conservative when it comes to handing out individual positives on jailbreak blitzes. McCray benefited from a number of those.

But!

McCray looked really good. We haven't seen him take on blocks like Morgan yet, but his athleticism, ability to redirect, and tendency to slash through surprised opposition were all promising. Even when I thought he may have screwed up he was aggressive, shoving guys back and active as he sought to take down the ballcarrier. This is McCray getting edged and it's still kind of all right:

Ideally he has faith to funnel that to Gedeon and this is a couple yards shorter, but the instinct to whack a blocker and get off that block will serve him well.

His slashing blitzes were really effective as well. This angle on a sack he wasn't involved in is probably the clearest example I have:

He's not trying to go around the guy, he's "attacking half a man," as the scouting types say, running at a brutally difficult point for the OL to react to. He slices through, he sucks in the running back, he draws a holding call, and Gedeon dashes in for the glory. That's the kind of blitz I'll issue big positives for.

This was consistent. While Glasgow drove one of his sacks, I loved McCray's efficient path to the backfield on it. He took advantage of a Charlton spin move and went just far enough outside an OL attempting to redirect to get by; that economy of motion made the sack more likely.

Gedeon's day was less spectacular but I liked him a lot too. His ability to flow felt very athletic and smooth, and he got in some slashing of his own:

Both ILBs had a hand in this one:

And I dunno man maybe this is a mirage because they were kept clean but I didn't get even slightly frustrated about either guy mentally, which was not the case last year. They got to their spots without fail. There weren't any of those issues where the line slants and the LBs don't understand what that means presnap.

I think I need a new contributor lightning round.

That actually makes a lot of sense. Go.

Rashan Gary.

Gary wasn't immediately a demon, but he was consistently productive. As expected, tight ends were mere flies to swat away. Michigan was confident enough in his athleticism to have him go cover a flare route. And my initial impression was right: he did get held a lot during the mercy-rule bit of the game. Even though he gets an arm across his entire body here this was a great example of his freaky acceleration at 290:

Probably the most encouraging thing Gary did was repeatedly get around the edge against Hawaii tackles:

Obviously a long way from those guys to Big Ten OL even in a down year, but early returns on "Gary is Chris Wormley with the edge rushing add-on pack" look good.

He did do some freshman stuff. A successful zone read keeper was entirely on him, and he took an illegal hands to the face penalty. Still, dude is a rotation DE on this line even now and will get a ton better as the year goes on.

Bryan Mone.

Barely a dozen snaps so hard to tell. Did drive a Hawaii OL into QB's lap on a Gedeon sack.

Chase Winovich.

Winovich should have been ejected for targeting at the beginning of the second half. Fortunately for Michigan, it's targeting, so nobody noticed and he stayed on.

After scattered first half snaps on which he didn't make much impact, Winovich was terrific in the second half. He shed guys with authority generally reserved for guys a lot bigger than him. And he flashed that pass rush ability folks had been attributing him:

The fourth down stop was largely Winovich plowing a tight end into the run lane:

He played both ends of a read option well, in contrast to a biff by Gary on the previous drive:

He looks pretty light compared to the rest of the line, but this is an artifact of Michigan's DL being frickin' huge and may not be a huge problem. We did not see him take the brunt of a run play against a DL, so holding up could be an issue. Still a productive and encouraging debut. Some of those pass rush moves are going to get OL much better than Hawaii's.

Matt Godin.

Lived up to his MGoScouting report. Very good when a secondary consideration and not so hot when sent out there with walk-ons and freshmen. Did have one very good flow and contest against a double.

David Long.

Blew a coverage on his first(?) snap. Otherwise not tested.

Lavert Hill.

One Lewis-like PBU:

Garrett Miller.

Is not Glasgow. Got blown out a lot by poor competition. Michigan in deep trouble if he has to play.

Michael Dwumfour.

Flashed a little Glasgow-like ability to swim his way into the backfield late:

But the emphasis is on "flashed." Pulling his redshirt makes some sense given the Mone injury but I'm extremely dubious he's going to help this year.

Lawrence Marshall.

Didn't do much of note. Looked plausible, I guess?

Not enough data on for even a vague gesture?

Kinnel, Hudson, Devin Bush, Mike Wroblewski, Reuben Jones, Michael Onwenu.

But Onwenu?

Didn't see him do anything of note.

Heroes?

Glasgow. McCray and Gedeon had A+ debuts. Delano Hill was impeccable. Stribling was close here.

Maybe not so heroic?

I mean nobody really but I was slightly disappointed that Charlton didn't make more impact in his 20 snaps. Brandon Watson did not look like a potential contributor at CB.

What does it mean for UCF and the future?

This is going to be fun. The defensive version of the Harbauffense is in town and it's got more than one LB/S hybrid. We are going to see all kinds of crazy stuff from Brown as he flings dudes at the QB from everywhere. Aaargh, did that guy come out of a HELICOPTER?!, says Wes Lunt.

Gary is operational now. Not a surprise but until you see it you don't know.

Glasgow is still a beast. Missed you big guy xoxo.

Michigan has a cliff after the top five DTs. They are very very deep and then they are not deep at all, if you get my meaning. Health will be critical. One guy going down is probably not much dropoff. Two really starts to bite.

The linebackers might be a big upgrade. McCray's debut could hardly have gone better and Gedeon displayed some very nice attributes himself. 

Stribling or Clark doesn't matter. Both look very good.

We may have underrated how Delano Hill would benefit from Brown's defense. Super active, playing to his strengths, and never looked better.

Giggity. Giggity.