Preview 2016: Five Questions And Five Answers On Defense

Previously:Podcast 8.0. The Story. Quarterback. Running Back. Wide Receiver. Tight End And Friends. Offensive Line. Defensive End. Defensive Tackle. Linebacker. Cornerback. Safety. Special Teams. 5Q5A: Offense.

1. Is The Don Brown thing really a big deal?

[Patrick Barron]

CAMP SEASON IS FINALLY HERE AT THE HEIGHTS!!! #FUTUREDUDESpic.twitter.com/FSwxNbftRB

— Don Brown (@FBCoachDBrown) June 1, 2015

Yes. When he was hired a wide selection of ACC folk whooped with joy and Boston College fans put on their NIN, and the proof is in the pudding. At three different stops over the last seven years, Don Brown has turned middling or worse Power 5 defenses into top 20-ish units, with the most recent one at BC a straight up Murder Castle:

[metrics are yards per play, FEI, and S&P+; national ranks are presented. final column is the average of the three. Bolded years are Brown years.]

That is a hell of a track record. Not only does he improve units way beyond previous expectations, his departure also immediately deleterious to the school he's left. That is highly suggestive of a guy who is a cut above as a tactician and playcaller.

And not to dump on DJ Durkin excessively, but he had close to no track record before his hire at Michigan. Being defensive coordinator under Will Muschamp is an assistant (to the) regional manager job. I think Durkin's going to be a good head coach—he's recruiting like gangbusters already—but there is simply no comparison between Durkin and Brown if you're talking about putting a defense together.

This goes double for the Big Bad at the end of the schedule. Michigan's gotten gashed for years by Ohio State, and last year was no different. A lot of this went directly back to Durkin's simplistic and static approach: man free, man free, man free. Steve Sharik pointed this out after the Indiana gashing:

Why Michigan has been really successful on D this year is b/c it can lock up on receivers, put an excellent, smart safety deep, then play with a man advantage in the box b/c the QB was not a run threat. In some sense, it was throwing rock every single time, believing (like Mickey from Seinfeld) that nothing beats rock. They're not alone.

It is widely known among coaching circles that gurus Bill Belichick and Nick Saban believe that (all else being equal) man-free defense is the best in the game: you're strong up the middle, you're protected deep, and you have an extra defender in the box vs. run.

When you're facing option football (which the NFL never sees), this is a fallacy, and Michigan fell victim on defense last Saturday.

Long story short there was zero adaptation against Ohio State and after halftime it was all over but the grinding.

This will not happen to Don Brown, who has been fighting spread offenses with defenses made out of a sock, a paperclip, and some mint gum for years. Never in Don Brown's career has he been able to sit back with minus one in the box and watch his guys whip it up one-on-one. He's got a ton of different ways to deal with the perimeter issues that Michigan endured a year ago, and spent his entire presentation at Michigan's coaching clinic talking about how to defend the inverted veer and its brethren.

I was straight up terrified about all the rumors about NFL guys under consideration. Every single one of those guy would walk into the OSU game as unprepared as Durkin. Don Brown is the best possible hire for Michigan, not just because he is Don Brown, but because he is the best choice for the Game. Even Brown's average defenses over the past five years have been that because of the pass; five straight years Brown has had a top five rush defense. At UConn and BC.

Don Brown is a huge hire. Huge.

[After THE JUMP: additional strategically located Peppers talk.]

2. Is Peppers at linebacker going to work?

[Eric Upchurch]

To some extent this is not even a thing. When the opponent has more than two WR on the field Peppers is going to be over a slot playing the exact same spot he did a year ago. That's going to be just fine. /tents fingers

The change comes when opponents manball up. Brown's defense is a 4-3 over, but in at least one respect it's like the under: the strongside end is a rough and tumble guy who is more of a DT than a DE.

Brown calls this "anchor" and he's the A in the figure above. He has to eat single blocking alive against the run. By forcing a double team he leaves the SAM—S above—free to run and hit things. That's Peppers. Michigan is fortunate to have two guys on the roster who are a perfect fit at anchor: Wormley and Gary. Tight ends were worthless against Wormley last year and project to be equally so against Gary.

If a team can single block Michigan's anchor and then go get the incredibly evasive Peppers, then they can run on that side of the line. Good luck storming the castle. Contrary to potential concerns, Michigan's personnel at these two spots is perfect for what Brown wants to do.

Michigan also has a backup plan for when teams go super heavy: Noah Furbush. Expect him on short yardage.

3. But what about the linebackers? The other ones, I mean.

[Bryan Fuller]

Eh, they'll probably be fine. For as much as I complained about Bolden last year he offset most of his negatives at a spot that I think zero is a good-enough grade. Gedeon's shown enough to expect that he'll at least match that.

The other spot could be anywhere from revelatory to a sinkhole, but I don't know how much even the worst case scenario matters. With the gentlemen surrounding Potential Sinkhole he might have games like Desmond Morgan had a couple times last year where he had two assisted tackles and scored 1-0.5=+0.5 in UFR.

Meanwhile I don't expect the sinkhole to come to pass. Mike McCray is old and athletic and touted; this is not Moundros maybe replacing Ezeh. Devin Bush is a decent backup plan even as a true freshman. They will get by.

4. There must be some sort of Achilles heel, right? If this goes wrong how does it go wrong?

Thomas is going to be under pressure [Fuller]

This has come up in a mailbag or two since Brown's hire: there's a year of stagnation when Brown arrives. In year two things get a lot better; in year one it's more of the same. The reason it was ugly in year one at Boston College:

And though the Eagles had been vulnerable to giving up big plays on the back end in Brown’s first few seasons in Chestnut Hill, by Year 3 they got the personnel and the scheme to the point where they were solid on both ends. In 2013, Brown’s first year helming the defense, BC gave up 47 passing plays of more than 20 yards (tied for no. 97 nationally); in his last year, it gave up just 29 (tied for no. 10).

Michigan is going to be exposing itself to considerably more risk on the back end than they did a year ago, when they left Jarrod Wilson 20 yards back and dared the opposition to complete fades down the sideline. This is a necessity if they're going to compete with top tier spread offenses; it could result in some hairy moments this year. Not only are Michigan's safeties going to be asked to remember a lot more, they're going to be put in positions where they have to read run or pass in a way Wilson did not.

So they could blow some stuff. Delano Hill in particular had a shaky period in the middle of last year. This could give the appearance of further stagnation, especially since it's going to be hard to go up from #2 (S&P) and #20(FEI) in fancystats. But if Michigan's giving up touchdowns in 45-14 games early in exchange for a defense that can actually check OSU, literally everyone will sign up for that.

The good news is that both Hill and Dymonte Thomas showed well in coverage a year ago and seem relatively well equipped to take on the extra deep ball responsibilities the defense will put on them. (Wilson's positioning was such that he didn't get tested last year.) Also, to throw the ball deep you have to hold the ball a bit.

Heh.

5. Well?

This will be a defense that alien archeologists unearth poems about in the far, far future.

Look, man: this is going to be the best DL Michigan has fielded in my memory. They've got four NFL draft locks, three of whom are potential first-rounders. They have Rashan Gary and Bryan Mone in addition to this. I think Chase Winovich is going to contribute. Matt Godin is going to find snaps hard to come by.

In addition to this they have an All-American corner, four other seniors in the secondary who are plus players to PFF and in my grading, and Jabrill Peppers. And Don Brown.

There will be some bumps early; midseason Michigan locks it down, finishing in the top five of any stat, fancy or not, you care to observe.

BETTER

• 295 pound junior Hurst > 280 pound sophomore Hurst
• Bryan Mone >>> nope
• Taco Charlton >> RJS/Ojemudia/some Charlton
• Chris Wormley > Willie Henry
• Older Stribling/Clark > Stribling/Clark
• Angry Blitzing Jabrill Peppers > More passive Jabrill Peppers
• Don Brown > DJ Durkin

SAME

• Ryan Glasgow == Ryan Glasgow
• Rashan Gary == Chris Wormley
• Jourdan Lewis == Jourdan Lewis
• Ben Gedeon == Joe Bolden
• Noah Furbush == James Ross

WORSE

• Mike McCray < Desmond Morgan

Last Year's Stupid Predictions

Jourdan Lewis plays lights out and ends up in a position to consider entering the draft. All Big Ten.

Yes, except he was an All-American.

Willie Henry delivers on his promise this year, leading the team in sacks from a tough spot to do so.

Tied for the team lead with 6.5 and went to the draft. I thought he should have gone higher, actually.

Ross == senior Stevie Brown, to put something on the record that I've implied several million times already.

Ross was barely used as Peppers sucked up the vast majority of his snaps. Peppers was kind of like senior Stevie Brown if Brown was made of knives and shade.

The front four demolishes teams with middling offensive lines, which will be everyone except Minnesota, OSU, and MSU; they have struggles that are deemed uncharacteristic against those three teams.

Replace Minnesota and MSU with Indiana and yes. Glasgow injury caveat maybe a little bit.

Stribling holds the corner job, but tenuously. He gets beat a lot short because he's trying to to screw it up.

No clear resolution all year but Clark seemed to come from behind to take it, nominally. Stribling didn't get beat short a lot.

Now it's a top ten defense that still gives up a bunch of points to OSU.

Goddammit.

This Year's Stupid Predictions

• Jabrill Peppers has 15 TFLs, three forced fumbles, and 6 sacks. He has three INTs.
• Nobody has double-digit sacks because five different players have more than five.
• Rashan Gary is a double-digit TFL guy with six sacks.
• Dymonte Thomas has a breakout year and gets drafted in the fourth round.
• Clark and Stribling spend the whole year trading snaps between each other; both are good.
• Khaleke Hudson ends a dude, probably on special teams. That dude is ended. He is no longer.
• Michigan holds OSU under 25 points and under 4.0 YPC.