Preview 2016: Quarterback

Previously:Podcast 8.0. The Story.

IT JUST SO HAPPENS THAT YOUR QUARTERBACK HERE IS ONLY MOSTLY DEAD

The Law of Harbaugh: it doesn't matter who your QB is [Bryan Fuller]

Midway through last season this space was openly wondering if Jake Rudock had some sort of disease that prevented him from doing quarterback good. Many theories were theorized. Eastern Shriveled Limb. Leaf's Palsy. The Harrington Syndrome. Akili's Aphid Aphasia. Whatever it was, it warn't good. Headstones were prepared. Ornamental flowers were arranged. Tuxes were rented. Boyz II Men was booked to sing "End Of The Road."

Then Jake Rudock erupted flaming from his own corpse. Pro Football Focus's #150 quarterback out of 159 qualifiers through week nine put the sword to a series of pass defenses ranging from comical (Indiana) to Nazgul in helmets (OSU, Florida), pulled his team's ass out of the fire repeatedly, finished as the second most efficient quarterback in the Big Ten, and got drafted. By the time the smoke cleared last year's Rudock MGo-prediction had gone from a millstone I'd wear around my neck until the end of time to dead on, as it were:

Rudock starts the whole year and turns in a season like last year at Iowa except more efficient: 60% completions, 8 YPA, excellent TD/INT.

64%, 7.8 YPA, 20-9 TD/INT. Rack it? Is that what we say? Someone with a moist goatee tell me the etiquette here.

Anyway. Rudock's surge from Iowa leftovers to sixth-round pick now goes on the Harbaugh quarterback tote board:

• helped Rich Gannon(!) win the 2002 NFL MVP award,
• developed non-scholarship San Diego's Josh Johnson into a third-place finisher for the Walter Payton, the I-AA Heisman, and the first draft pick in school history,
• recruited and developed Andrew Luck,
• salvaged Alex Smith's NFL career and got him a huge contract despite the fact that he simultaneously...
• advocated for, drafted, and developed Colin Kaepernick into a legit starting NFL QB when few thought he could make the transition from the Nevada pistol, and
• molded would-be Iowa backup Jake Rudock into a sixth-round draft pick.

The only point in Harbaugh's coaching career that he didn't have a quarterback somewhere between good and great was his first two years at a 1-11 Stanford program that had been driven off several increasingly tall cliffs before his arrival. And one of those guys beat USC at the height of its Pete Carroll power.

On one level, "who is the starting quarterback?" is the single most critical question about the 2016 Michigan Wolverines. On another level, eh, it'll be fine.

[After THE JUMP: people on this year's roster!]

MY DEPTH CHART'S SO GUESSILICIOUS

best frenemies [Eric Upchurch]

RATING: 3.

So. This space had been projecting John O'Korn as the starter even after spring practice, when Speight inched ahead. So had most other people, but we were all guessing wildly. The decision as to the starter was very much a 51/49 kind of thing, with all projections surrounded by layers of hedging. Early in fall camp 247 surveyed various insiders and got approving mentions for both competitors; they also detailed the choice facing the coaching staff:

In June, we were told Speight was the leader heading into fall camp, and that if O'Korn could tone down the mistakes, he might be the player with the higher ceiling.

Gunslinger versus game manager. Fight.

The uncertainly abruptly resolved itself into a bonafide expectation on Friday, when Wilton Speight was anointed the starter on the internet. The internet is not Jim Harbaugh, and Speight was on point when he told assembled media members that "not many people know what goes on in coach Harbaugh's mind." Still, it seems like a thing.

You'll have to rely on my internet spidey-sense here because we're about to delve into anonymous internet insiders. So there's this guy who goes by UMBig11, give or take some caps, and he's been saying things on 247 and our comments for a bit; he also gives Rivals some of their stuff. In my opinion, he's credible, and just a few hours after Rivals said it was Speight he posted the same thing on our board. Since then various sites have confirmed that expectation.

FWIW, this was the vibe that multiple reporters got when Harbaugh put Speight, O'Korn, and Morris in front of the media a few days ago:

Reading between the lines here, but based on body language and the like I'd be surprised if Speight isn't the starting QB against Hawaii.

— Dan Murphy (@DanMurphyESPN) August 26, 2016

It would now be a surprise—but not a shock—if it wasn't Speight. So about him…

DOOR #1: THE GAME MANAGER(?)

manage manage manage [Patrick Barron]

WILTON SPEIGHT [recruiting profile] was the backup last year and neck and neck with O'Korn through spring. Speight's spring game performance was approximately on par with O'Korn's, for O'Korn truthers insistent on Speight's candidacy as motivational ploy even at this late date.

Speight did get in for chunks of the Minnesota and OSU games last year. His performance was what you might expect from a middling three-star redshirt freshman suddenly thrust into the fire. He looked overwhelmed. He was horrendous. He spurred tweets about Russell Bellomy.

Then he put together a game-winning drive. First off he hit Jake Butt near the first down marker, then Khalid Hill on a drag. Those were simple; a read and throw on a double post for a touchdown was less so:

The ensuing two point conversion turned out to be critical for Michigan's eventual victory and featured Speight moving around in the pocket and finding a tiny window for the points.

The grim three-and-out parade and unflattering comparisons melted away. Michigan won on a goal line stand that never should have happened for six different reasons; Rudock returned the next week and Speight faded into the background.

He re-emerged after Rudock was knocked out against Ohio State, and again looked completely overwhelmed for a half-dozen throws. After the shell-shock period he looked reasonably good. All of this was garbage time to be taken it with a grain of salt, but there was a nice anticipation throw in there:

That playing time was brief and unimpressive and totally expected for a redshirt freshman backup. He had a tendency to panic under pressure; a number of the throws I filed IN or BR against OSU came when he got sped up and threw it to nobody in particular.

Speight made a move obvious to anyone watching him in spring. His performance at the game itself was polished and confident, with just one errant throw, that a fade that took Grant Perry out of bounds. Hennechart:

[Note: I've rearranged the columns on the Hennechart so that they are now in approximate order of good play to bad.]

Obviously this is little to go on, but Speight shook that feeling of panic he showed early against both Minnesota and OSU. Ace:

When it came to the two main competitors for the starting job, the QBs were a bright spot. Wilton Speight looked like a different player than the one whose nerves seemed to affect his ability to throw a spiral when he came on against Minnesota last year. He missed a deep ball to Grant Perry; everything else was on-target, and he even made an impact with his legs. He’s making a legitimate push for the job.

Jedd Fisch:

“Wilton’s somebody that has really matured over a year. I think that going into last year’s camp, he’s a much different person than he is going into this year’s camp. He’s taken on the maturity, he’s taken on a lot of responsibility. The obvious game against Minnesota gave him a kind of confidence, you know. He’s excited about it. He’s excited that that’s not going to be the only touchdown he ever throws for Michigan, and I think that’s his mindset, that that’s not going to be my last touchdown.”

I made similar observations after seeing him a couple times in the spring. The occasional wobble on Speight's throws was gone and his arm strength seemed a lot better because he was getting throws out on time consistently. If the real Speight is the guy who led the winning Minnesota drive and was okay-ish after a rough start against OSU, that's a viable player. It looks like things are trending that way. So much so that when Speight tells this to assembled media…

"Because it's me, I can remember back to the same plays we ran last year. I watch film and I can remember a rep or a play and I remember thinking last year 'this is so fast, the game is so fast.' It looked like a blur," Speight says. "This year in camp, and in the spring, I drop back and the game is so much slower. I can see guys come open before they're open now, that's the biggest thing.

"Everything's slowed down now."

…it seems plausible.

You know that I have to say this bit: there probably hasn't been an offensive coordinator/QB coach in the history of college football with a recruiting touch as leaden as Al Borges. This quote from Speight during his recruitment is boggling now and will only get worse as time proceeds:

"In their eyes, myself, David Cornwell, and this kid from IMG Academy Michael O'Connor are the best quarterbacks in the nation in this class," Speight said.

Cornwell and O'Conner aren't even in the conversation at Alabama and Penn State, respectively; that recruiting class contained Brad Kaaya, Deshaun Watson, and DeShone Kizer. Kizer, a Toledo kid, was clamoring for a Michigan offer that never came. Not great, Bob.

Speight is the last hope that Borges will ever recruit a QB who finishes his career as the starting quarterback. (Only one Borges-recruited QB has ever been at the top of a depth chart, and Indiana's Cam Coffman moved to tight end after a single year as a starter.) Jim Harbaugh evidently has the ability to turn you or I into a fifth-round pick and Speight will no doubt be okay if he is indeed the guy, but his recruitment offers zero encouragement.

DOOR #2: THE GUNSLINGER

sling sling sling [Eric Upchurch]

Houston transfer JOHN O'KORN is without question the high-upside option. He's got a big arm and escapability Wilton Speight doesn't. He's great on the run, especially on plays that break down into improvisation. You couldn't throw a rock on a subscription message board last year without hitting an insider who swore up and down that O'Korn, not Jake Rudock, was the best quarterback on the roster. That might have been faint praise early. Late not so much.

He is also the high-downside option. He was thrust into the starting lineup at Houston as a true freshman and performed, completing 58% of his passes for a whopping 3117 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. However, there are a number of caveats in there that Bill Connelly struck upon when he previewed the Cougars going into 2014:

• The sheer quantity of passing he was called upon to do gave him an edge when it came to counting numbers. His 446 attempts are matched only by John Navarre in the annals of Michigan history; those 3000+ yards come out to a middling 7 yards a pop.
• Opponents got their hands on a ton of O'Korn's passes. 76 of his attempts were touched by the opposition. Ten were intercepted. On average you would expect a whopping 19 of those to get picked off.
• He faded badly late. His last five games: 98-for-199 (49%), 996 yards (5.0 per pass), six touchdowns, six interceptions.

That fade only got worse in 2015. Houston's offensive coordinator lit out for greener pastures, some jabroni was brought in to replace him, four offensive line starters graduated, and O'Korn and the rest of the Houston offense went off one of those cliffs Stanford had previously traversed. By the time he was permanently benched for Greg Ward, O'Korn was completing just 52% of his passes for 4.8 yards an attempt with 6 TDs and 8 INTs. PFF had him 133rd of 135 in their "adjusted completion percentage" metric.

The final straw was a horrendous game against Central Florida:

O'Korn looked like Christian Hackenberg trying to throw out of a paint shaker for the duration, went to the bench early in the third quarter, and never returned. A few months later he was in Ann Arbor.

Jim Harbaugh's goal here is to turn O'Korn from Ryan Mallett. Michigan edition, into Ryan Mallett, Arkansas edition. There were a lot of factors that helped O'Korn down the highway to hell. When O'Korn looked good, as he did against BYU a few weeks before his benching, he looked like a guy with the weight of the world on his shoulders. He suffered a lot of drops and his offensive coordinator basically never managed to work guys free like Harbaugh did for Rudock a year ago. It was all contested throws, obvious screens, and pop passes on which opposition safeties were obliterating his receivers as soon as the ball arrived.

O'Korn offers a lot to work with if you can just give him a valium and get to polishing, and his performance in the spring game was a major step in the right direction:

While a couple of those scrambles may have been premature, those were the only erroneous decisions on the day. O'Korn was accurate, decisive, and sane. His weird sidearm delivery and tendency to drift backwards like a dude who sucks at Madden were close to absent.

A look at a Hennechart of selected games might be illuminating here. A reminder that * means a particular bad event was an extremely bad version of that event and + is for a successful throw made under serious duress or after escaping the pocket.

You can see the wildness as a freshman. Lot of great throws in the Rice game on not a ton of attempts; four starred incidents.

You can see the oppressiveness of the 2014 Cougar offense versus BYU: six + throws, five snaps on which he was pressured so fast he could not realistically be expected to do anything. You don't see the gap between those successful throws and his stats as his receivers dropped a ton of balls.

You can see the total implosion as that season went along: against UCF O'Korn turfed three of seven screens and threw a boggling interception.

And then you get something that looks like a much more refined player. Nothing crazy either way. His accuracy is still a bit off, but most of those decisions to take off you remember from the spring game were correct. A year with Harbaugh seems to taken much of the wild-eyed berserking out of O'Korn. If he does end up playing he'll probably be fine, with a lingering tendency to throw balls up for grabs. At the same media availability that Speight offered the quote about things slowing down for him, O'Korn sounded like a guy who hadn't quite got there yet:

"I think you heard coach talk about eliminating the big mistake. That's something I felt I've done very well with in this camp," he said. "In spring ball, I wasn't as comfortable with the reads. I was still trying to feel out being back in the huddle, leading a team. I got all the kinks out in spring ball. I feel like that's been my biggest stride. Attention (to detail with) the offense and just being able to go out and play ball again."

He'll play in the first three games a bunch, and there's a nonzero chance he ends up emerging a la Kaepernick if Speight opens the door for him.

EXPECTATIONS

possibly the best QB on the roster still [Upchurch]

Whoever gets the starting nod will have one huge advantage over early-season Rudock: experience. Rudock only arrived in fall camp last year. Speight and O'Korn have as much experience with the Harbaugh offense as Rudock does even now. Fisch:

"It's a huge difference from when we had this conversation last year. ... A lot of it last year in those discussions was just guessing. Now, we have film on Wilton in the games he played last year. We had meetings with them all of last year, all spring and their preparation has been excellent.

"Now it's exciting. You can build off of last year without the approach of too much newness. ... Now we can show them film of Michigan people doing it, rather than someone else."

It's probably irrational to believe that the starter will be late-season Rudock. Despite Rudock's early struggles this is a guy who was a solid two-year starter at Iowa prior to his arrival. Speight has about two quarters of on-field experience, and O'Korn's season and a half ended in disaster.

But neither should start out as rough as Rudock did. The guy who wins the job has a fully weaponized Jehu Chesson, Jake Butt, and Amara Darboh, a slot receiver who's not going to conjure interceptions out of nowhere, and most of a good pass-blocking offensive line back. Also the opener is Hawaii, not Utah. The end result should be somewhere near last year's outcome: 60% completions, 8 YPA, 2:1 TD-INT. The ride there should be far less turbulent.

If it sounds crazy that I'm projecting a new starter to be amongst the most efficient QBs in the Big Ten, please keep in mind that this year's crop of QBs is CJ Beathard and zero other players who graded positively per PFF. (JT Barrett was positive overall but negative as a passer.) It's a very BIG TEN year. 8 YPA isn't gangbusters nationally.

The starter will be okay. He will not submarine the season; he will not carry the team. Unless, you know, Harbaugh.

BACKUPS

Morris grew a beard, so yeah man[Upchurch/Fuller/Upchurch]

Redshirt junior SHANE MORRIS [recruiting profile] was definitively behind the two leaders per both Harbaugh press conference answers and spring game deployment—Morris mostly played slot receiver. In the aftermath he promised the press that he was still a quarterback, and he still is.

Without an injury crisis he is exceedingly unlikely to play. There's been some talk he's trying to get on special teams just so he can see the field. His odd mid-career redshirt a year ago looks like the result of a frank conversation between Morris and Harbaugh that not only was he miles behind Jake Rudock but also Speight, who was called upon in multiple games. No coach is going to redshirt his backup quarterback; despite approving chatter last year Morris apparently wasn't #2. At this point he's neither the present nor the future and is likely to take a grad transfer after the season.

A couple guys vying to be the future are already on campus. Early-enrolling freshman BRANDON PETERS [recruiting profile] comes with a boatload of hype and a certain resemblance to Andrew Luck. You don't even have to squint that hard. He's a little skinny and didn't play big-time competition in Indiana and is also a true freshman, so he needs some work. He started putting that in this spring, drawing repeated approval from Harbaugh:

“It’s impressive what he did, as young as he is, being out here for the first time,” Harbaugh said. “He’s got some real coolness about him. It showed up over and over each of the four days. He’s not a guy that panics. He’s a natural in a lot of ways. I was very excited about what he did.”

He's guaranteed a redshirt unless that injury crisis descends. Even Luck redshirted. As for the future, it could come sooner than you think. Webb reports that he's the "most talented quarterback on the roster" and that he will be a serious threat in 2017.

Redshirt freshman ALEX MALZONE [recruiting profile] dropped off everyone's radar after a freshman-like 2015 spring game performance placed him definitively behind Morris in the pecking order. This spring all the talk about young guys both public and private focused on Peters. Ominously, when Harbaugh extends the QB competition discussion past the two leaders Malzone doesn't get mentioned:

Harbaugh has maintained that both Speight and O'Korn were ahead of both Morris and true freshman Brandon Peters. But he did say that all four will get their chance to compete for the job this fall. The other quarterbacks -- redshirt freshmen Alex Malzone and the walk-ons -- will likely be working from behind.

Malzone is a short, relatively polished guy who's going to have to be Drew Brees or Tom Brady to make it, he's got a narrow window of opportunity to put himself in the 2018 conversation before Dylan McCaffrey and whoever else arrive.