The sudden retirement of Dan Voltz leaves Wisconsin alarmingly thin up front.
As we're hanging on to every word leaking out of the submarine, the rest of the conference is also in their final preparations for the season, and expectations can change dramatically based on unexpected depth chart changes and injuries. Yesterday provided one such example when Wisconsin announced that interior lineman Dan Voltz is retiring due to injury; without him, the Badgers don't have a single OL with more than 13 career starts.
With opening weekend around the corner, I decided to take another look at each Big Ten squad to identify their strongest and weakest position groups. We'll start today with the Big Ten West. Before Iowa fans start getting mad online, these are listed in the same order as Bill Connelly's Big Ten power rankings—he's already quite accustomed to Hawkeye fans yelling at him.
NEBRASKA
Good news: The Huskers return five of their top six wide receivers from a year ago. Jordan Westerkamp has an argument—one that'll hopefully be refuted by Jehu Chesson—as the top returning receiver in the conference; he's a threat working underneath or stretching the field, and he's capable as both a slot and outside receiver. Brandon Reilly and Alonzo Moore averaged 11.1 and 9.9 yards per target, respectively, in 2015. Steady TE Cethan Carter, former four-star Stanley Morgan Jr., and slot bug Demornay Pierson-El—an electric return man coming off an injury-plagued year—round out a talented, deep group of pass-catchers. Tommy Armstrong Jr.'s penchant for losing his damn mind a couple times per game is all that's holding this passing game back.
Bad news: Corn Nation is rather alarmed at the defensive line situation:
Nebraska has no defensive line. Everyone experienced left or quit football. Defensive tackle Kevin Maurice has one career start, defensive ends Ross Dzuris and Freedom Akinmoladun have four starts apiece. Who’s going to fill the rest of that space? The Davis twins, one at a time, or both? Mick Stoltenberg?
Whomever it is, they’ll have to grow up fast. If the defensive line doesn't exist throughout the season, the offense will need to score 45 points a game. This is not conducive to having a great season.
The coach quotes coming out of fall camp would have me breaking out in hives if they were about Michigan. Their defensive coordinator is saying patently crazy things like experience doesn't matter much on the D-line:
Banker said that, if there’s a place where it’s OK for guys to be young, it’s the defensive line, coached by John Parrella.
“See ball, get off on the ball and get in your gap,” Banker said. “That’s what it really comes down to. And then go play the run on the way back to the quarterback. We’ve got to keep it simple for certain guys. That’s John’s biggest challenge and our biggest challenge right now. What you say in the meeting room. Who are you talking to? Are you talking to that young guy who hasn’t played a game, or are you talking to a guy who’s been here for five years and played in multiple games?”
Nebraska's D-line was excellent against the run last year, but they lost DTs Maliek Collins and Vincent Valentine, who both went in the third round of the NFL draft. Meanwhile, they generated zero pass rush (96th in adj. sack rate). DT Kevin Maurice graded out very well last year on PFF, but a huge chunk of his value came from games against Southern Miss and Illinois. DE Freedom Akinmoladon has some upside. Otherwise, this looks like a group that could really hold the team back.
[Hit THE JUMP for Wisconsin's OL troubles(!!!) and much more.]
WISCONSIN
Good news: Even accounting for the departure of OLB Joe Schobert and a foot injury that could hold ILB TJ Edwards out of the opener, Wisconsin has an excellent group of linebackers. The headliner is OLB Vince Biegel, a top-notch pass-rusher. The key to this unit, however, is "Three-sack" Jack Cichy, who can play inside or outside. He should hold down the fort at ILB with Chris Orr until Edwards is healthy, at which point he may slide outside—if he can win the remaining OLB job over Yet Another Watt Brother (TJ, in this case).
Bad news: As mentioned above, Voltz's sudden retirement is a huge blow to an O-line that struggled with injury and inexperience last year. We've come to expect Wisconsin's OL will reload instead of rebuild every year, but that's a tall task this year. This is what they're working with:
I accidentally chopped off redshirt freshman David Moorman but you get the point.
The only four-star recruit left on the O-line is 280-pound true freshman Cole Van Lanen. The most established guys are sophomores who played on a disappointing group last year (70th in adj. line yards, 44th in adj. sack rate). The starting left tackle, essentially by default, is a D-III transfer(!!!) who left a recent practice in walking boot, though Wisconsin says his injury isn't serious. Starting RT Jacob Maxwell had offseason foot surgery and still isn't a full participant in practice. George Panos has been dealing with a shoulder issue. Wisconsin is ten days away from playing LSU. That doesn't sound ideal.
At just about any other program, we'd assume this is a disaster in the making. While Wisconsin and Paul Chryst deserve some benefit of the doubt, it's going to be tough to assmble even an average line out of the available pieces.
MINNESOTA
Good news: You'd expect Minnesota's top-20 pass defense to regress a whole lot after losing both NFL-caliber starting corners and a starting safety. That's not a safe assumption, however. Before a season-ending injury nine weeks into last season, Jalen Myrick ranked among PFF's top ten cornerbacks in the country. Safety Damarius Travis, who played well in 2014, is back after missing almost all of last year with a hamstring injury. If a second corner emerges, this could be a surprisingly good secondary again.
Bad news: Despite the presence of First Round Prospect Mitch Leidner, the Gophers will again lean heavily on the run game, and Shannon Brooks emerged last season as by far their best option at running back. Brooks broke his foot on August 9th, however, and it's looking increasingly unlikely he'll be available for the season opener. While the Gophers can afford to hold him out of their soft non-conference slate if necessary, foot injuries are notoriously tough to bounce back from without any setbacks. When healthy, Brooks is very good, but we might hear that "when healthy" caveat on a regular basis this season.
IOWA
Good news: The secondary improved a great deal last year, and as long as everyone stays healthy they should be good again this year. Losing free safety Jordan Lomax hurts, and depth could be an issue if any of the starters go down, but Desmond King should compete for the Thorpe Award again and Greg Mabin is one of the better #2 corners around.
The real good news remains the butter-soft schedule. I will now die in an avalanche of angry Iowa fan twitter mentions.
Bad news: Iowa fans freaked out when CJ Beathard missed a couple practices last week and returned sporting a knee brace. While everything is reportedly fine, this passage isn't the most reassuring thing in the world...
Beathard said he has experienced no problems with the groin area injury he had surgically repaired during the offseason and he isn’t a big fan of the brace strapped around his left knee for what he called “precautionary’’ reasons.
“I don’t like wearing it because it’s hard to move in. It's a pain,'' Beathard said. "It’s precautionary, you don’t want to tear something in your knee so you’ve got to do what you’ve got to do.''
...especially when considering Iowa's offense is at its best when Beathard is utilized as a runner. If Beathard gets dinged up, the Hawkeyes could experience a huge drop-off; sophomore Tyler Wiegers is being pushed by three-star true freshman Nate Stanley for the backup job. Beathard's injury could be nothing to worry about, but he hasn't been a paragon of good health over the last year, and if he's out for any stretch of time it probably dooms Iowa's hopes for a division title.
NORTHWESTERN
Fuller
Good news: Even without standout corner Nick VanHoose, there's a lot to like about Northwestern's secondary. Matthew Harris had 13 PBUs and four picks in 2015, proving every bit as good as his counterpart. Godwin Igwebuike had a breakout year at safety and could be the best in the conference as a junior this year. Keith Watkins II looked decent as the team's third corner last year and should hold his own in a starting role. A couple four-star players—including one-time M target Parrker Westphal—are in the mix for playing time. I don't expect the Wildcats to finish 9th in S&P+ against the pass again, but even with a reasonable dropoff they'll be a solid unit.
Bad news: The offense was atrocious last year, and I don't think the outlook is much better for 2016. RB Justin Jackson is just a guy and he's the centerpiece of the offense. QB Clayton Thorson should be better in his second year as a starter, but he's got to improve a lot just to get to average—Northwestern got terribly predictable last year in an obvious effort to have Thorson do as little as possible. The only returning player to catch more than 20 passes last year is... Justin Jackson. Only one returning receiver cracked six yards per target.
Northwestern fans very much want offensive coordinator Mick McCall fired, and I can't blame them one bit.
ILLINOIS
Good news: While the Illini lost a second-round pick at DE in Jihad Ward, they've got some quality players up front, especially DE Dawuane Smoot, who's coming off an eight-sack season. NOTY candidate Chunky Clements is a disruptive defensive tackle—he had 11 run stops behind the line in 2015. The Illini bring back plenty of depth and add another NOTY candidate in former Auburn DE Gimel President. The back seven is scary, but Lovie Smith has something to work with up front.
Bad news: The Illini lose two starters and their top two backups from an offensive line that was one of the worst run-blocking units in the country, and their good pass-blocking numbers were largely a product of Wes Lunt getting the ball out as quickly as possible. Any injury to an established starter would be calamitous.
PURDUE
Good news: Darrell Hazell's buyout is getting less prohibitively expensive. Also, Jake Replogle is a very good DT.
Bad news: Pretty much everything else.