Draftageddon 2016: It's Slot Receiver Hour!

This is a best players of the Big Ten preview. But rather than just name 100 guys in random order, Brian demands competition and four hours of research on each subject, which will then be trashed by your peers. This is the Harbaugh way.

And you can vote now. Competition!

Previously on Draftageddon:

1. Rounds 1-2: A Heisman candidate QB and the reigning Thorpe winner go after two members of Michigan's secondary. (M players: Peppers, Lewis, Butt)

2. Rounds 3-4: An underwhelming first swing through receivers, and lots of linemen. (Chesson, Cole, Wormley, Glasgow)

3. Rounds 5-6: A Michigan second-teamer goes before Purdue J.J. Watt. (Charlton, Hurst)

4. Rounds 7-8: Hodor. (Taco, Hurst)

5. Rounds 9-11: We go on a mini Iowa binge, and Brian takes a true freshman (YTTF).

6. Rounds 12-14: A grueling three-rounder with safeties, RBs, and MSU legacies flexing. (O'Korn, Braden).

7. Rounds 15-16: We break out laughing at Tommy Armstrong. (Dymonte, Kenny Allen)

8. Rounds 17-18: Cheese and tackles. (Magnuson, Delano Hill)

9. Rounds 19-20: Tight ends, a boring Iowa safety, and Brian finally believes a Michigan coach quote over his own eyes. (Stribling)

How things stand:

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ACE: Round 21, Pick 1: Malik Hooker, safety, Ohio State

Eleven Warriors

OFFENSE: QB CJ Beathard (IA), RB Saquon Barkley (PSU), WR Jehu Chesson (M), WR Noah Brown (OSU), SLOT Curtis Samuel (OSU), TE George Kittle (IA), OT Nick Gates (NE), OT Kodi Kieler (MSU), OG Jacob Bailey (IU), C Michael Dieter (UW), WEAPON Jabrill Peppers (M)

DEFENSE: NT Ryan Glasgow (M), DT Jake Replogle (PU), DE Sam Hubbard (OSU), DE Demetrius Cooper (MSU), MLB Josey Jewell (IA), OLB Brandon Bell (PSU), OLB/NICKEL Jabrill Peppers (M), CB Jalen Myrick (MN), CB Vayante Copeland (MSU), S Nate Gerry (NE), S Malik Hooker (OSU)

SPECIAL TEAMS: KR Jabrill Peppers (M), PR Jabrill Peppers (M)

Ohio State didn’t have much of a need for a third safety last fall due to the steady presences of Vonn Bell and Tyvis Powell; when they did have one out there, it was Malik Hooker, who’s ready to step into a starting role as a redshirt sophomore. Hooker was one of the standout performers from OSU’s spring game, recording ten tackles and two picks. He’s in a race with three other Buckeyes (Cam Burrows, Erick Smith, and Damon Webb) for the two open safety spots; exiting the spring, he’d separated himself from the pack.

Hooker was an outstanding two-sport athlete in high school—as a senior, he was the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette male athlete of the year, their basketball player of the year, and made their football “Fabulous 22”—and that athleticism should help cover for his inexperience as he settles into a starting job. I’ll take the unknown with big upside here instead of grabbing one of MSU’s liable-to-be-benched safeties.

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Ace: Uh, hopefully taking Wolverines with three of my first four picks will offset the fact that I took Spartans or Buckeyes with my last five.

Seth: TRAITOR!

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[After THE JUMP: Have you ever seen MGoBloggers rip on slot bugs? This totally happened.]

ADAM: Round 21, Pick 2: Janarion Grant, WR/PR/KR, Rutgers

[Patrick Barron]

OFFENSE: C Pat Elflein (OSU), OG Dan Feeney (IU), WR Amara Darboh (M), RB Justin Jackson (NW), WR Brandon Reilly (NEB), QB John O'Korn (M), OG Ben Braden (M), OT Erik Magnuson (M), OT Jamarco Jones (OSU), TE Josiah Price (MSU), WR Janarion Grant (RU)

DEFENSE: CB Jourdan Lewis (M), DE Dawuane Smoot (ILL), DE Taco Charlton (M), DT Maurice Hurst (M), OLB Vince Biegel (UW), CB Matthew Harris (NW), ILB Hardy Nickerson Jr. (ILL), S Marcus Allen (PSU), S Damarius Travis (MN), ILB Jason Cabinda (PSU)

SPECIAL TEAMS: PR/KR Janarion Grant (RU)

I'm as hesitant to pick a Rutgers player as the next guy, but after spending entirely too long deliberating I've decided that Grant's stats were good enough in an offense that can't possibly be as bad as last year to warrant drafting him. He also happens to be one of the best punt/kick returners in the country; Pro Football Focus thinks so highly of Grant's return skills that that's the thing they picked for Rutgers in their "Biggest Reason For Hope For Every Big Ten Team" article.

I realize there's a thin line between "man, he must be a​_really_​ good returner" and "that is a hilarious indictment of a football program," but PFF's grades have Grant behind only Christian McCaffrey among returning punt/kick returners. With four special teams touchdowns, a 13.9-yard punt return average, and a 24.6-yard kick return average it's not hard to see why.

Grant would be a Heisman contender if his receiving stats were anywhere near as impressive as his return stats, but they're not too shabby for a slot receiver. His 77.8% catch rate last season was excellent, and his 7.8 yards per target was solid. The departure of Leonte Carroo leaves Rutgers searching for a new no.1 receiver; which of Grant or Andre Patton takes on the role remains to be seen, but Grant will undoubtedly be targeted more often in 2016. Rutgers is installing an up-tempo spread offense this season, and with that necessarily comes the search for a dual-threat QB.  If Rutgers can find one who's halfway competent Grant should be in for a big season considering the damage he could do on RPOs.

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Brian: Catch rate > 70% == only used on bubble screens and the like

Ace: This.

Rutgers receiver Janarion Grant frustrated as touches diminish

While many of Grant's touches come on low-risk plays like screens or jet sweeps, Rutgers coach Kyle Flood said there is a danger in trying to force the ball to the elusive receiver.

And that was with Carroo out.

Adam: I don't expect him to be a deep threat. As long as he keeps catching those bubble screens and returning kicks and punts I'm happy. Also, I was digging through Bill Connelly's receiving data and the catch rates for other returning slot receivers was surprisingly ugly.

Ace: Mitchell Paige was at 71% and 8.6 YPT.

Adam: But he wasn't the second best returner in the country.

Seth: But then how much does that go down if an overturned targeting call doesn't accidentally erase a hold and a block in the back?

Ace: Take out the 67-yard return against us and he averaged 9.1 on punt returns last year. Dude still has seven career returns for scores, so...

Seth: Here's how I personally ranked the remaining slot receivers. Highlight colors indicate %-ile among Big Ten receivers last year (red is top 80th percentile/orange/yellow/green/blue):

All slot receivers have high catch rates; Paige was more productive, but dropping over a quarter of passes is kind of a concern since they're rarely contested.

Given Grant's production on special teams I think it's a fine pick for this stage. I was trying to parse between various slot types earlier, and the biggest knock on Grant is he really doesn't get balls downfield. And the slot receiver position put up huge total yardage numbers wherever (new Rutgers OC) Mehringer was running Tom Herman's receivers.

Adam: That's why I made the RPO comment. I doubt they'll be able to stretch the field well enough to keep safeties out of the box, but package in a bubble screen to Grant on run plays and he should be able to put up similar catch rate and YPT numbers with more targets.

Seth: There's also De'Mornay Pierson-El out there, but he's like 50/50 to even play the first half of the season and a non-zero chance he might re-injure himself celebrating the fact he got drafted.

Adam: Yeah, I took Pierson-El last season and nope, not doing that again.

Seth: And Saeed Blacknall, but it's hard to judge a slot receiver when his quarterback regularly wings or turfs bubble screens.

Ace: I must say it’s hard for me to expect the same Rutgers team that spiked on fourth down last year to have RPOs down as an integral part of their offense this year.

Adam: When your OC comes from Houston there's at least a chance.

Seth: Rich Rodriguez could only do so much in 2008. And whatever NJ.com says, Mehringer isn't quite Rich Rodriguez.

Adam: We can't all agree on Grant's utility, but I think we can all agree that anyone's an upgrade over Kyle Flood.

Seth: Other than Curtis Samuel I didn't think the current crop of slots give you anything more than the next best receiver available. Some of the best would-be slot receivers are playing outside because that's where their teams need them. For example…

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SETH:  Round 21, Pick 3: Ricky Jones, WR, Indiana

OFFENSE: QB J.T. Barrett (OSU), RB Corey Clement (WI), WR Chris Godwin (PSU), WR Simmie Cobbs (IN), WR Ricky Jones (IN), TE Brandon Lingen (MN), OC Mason Cole (M), RG Sean Welsh (IA), LG Billy Price (OSU), LT Ryan Ramczyk (WI), RT Michael Dunn (MD)

DEFENSE: NT Bryan Mone (M), DT Darius Hamilton (RU), WLB Nyeem Wartman-White (PSU), MLB Riley Bullough (MSU), HSP Delano Hill (M), SS Godwin Igwebuike (NW), FS Dymonte Thomas (M), FCB Desmond King (IA) BCB Greg Mabin (IA)

SPECIAL TEAMS: KR/PR Desmond King, K/P Ryan Santoso (MN)

When drafting Brandon Reilly, Adam mentioned he was getting the last of the guys on his board in the nation's top 100 (Reilly was 95th) of RYPR, Bill Connelly's WR production stat. The guy Adam scrolled past, at 69th, is easy to overlook since Ricky is only 5'10 and mostly played cornerback until last year.

It's something of a coup that I managed to lock up 3 of the top 4 guys returning by pure production…

…let alone add 905 yards and 9.5 per target the same round Ace cast a die into OSU receiver roulette. The caveat here is that meh catch rate, which was partly on Jones, but was mostly due to being a 5'10 slot receiver drafted into duty as Indiana's #1 deep threat.

And that's the key for this pick: One of the best ways to attack those aggressively anti-spread Quarters safeties is to have a slot receiver who can blow by them and head for the corner. Ricky also contributed to actual-Indiana-slot-receiver Mitchell Paige's productive season with the kind of mountain goat blocking a Rodriguezian spread smurf could appreciate. He may be too good to play slot for the Hoosiers, but he's an excellent fit as a third target in my offense.

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Ace: Jones is solid, though I think he hit his ceiling—I’ll be surprised if he matches last year’s numbers without Sudfeld at the helm unless that JuCo is the real deal. IU receiving numbers have to come with a grain of salt because of that offense.

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BRIAN: Round 21, Pick 4: Matt VandeBerg, WR, Iowa

[Hawkeyesports.com]

Another Big Ten West wide receiver guaranteed to be his team's number one option, VandeBerg is a quintessential Iowa possession receiver: extremely reliable hands--a 69% catch rate--and an unthrilling yards per catch (or target, either way). Whenever I caught an Iowa game last year he was making a diving catch to salvage a third and medium.

He busted out in a major way last year, going from 14 catches to 65 as Tevaun Smith struggled to remain healthy. Iowa lost Smith and Henry Kreiger-Coble; Vandeberg is about to get a ton of targets. Beathard on his main man:

“He’s a little undersized. But he does a great job of what he can do,” Beathard said. “He’s a really fast guy, and a guy with great hands. And he’s a guy that I love to see out there because I know he’s going to be where I want him to be at all times. He’s a smart guy. I can count on him. The way it’s been working, I’ve been getting it to him a lot.”

PFF had VandeBerg the #37 WR in the Power 5 last year, which isn't bad for my third WR. I in fact had to double-check that he was still on the board.

Also they call him "Meerkat." STEAL OF THE DRAFT RIGHT HERE BUDDY.

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BRIAN: Round 22, Pick 1: Andrew Nelson, OL, Penn State

[Steve Goodman]

OFFENSE: QB Tommy Armstrong (NEB), RB LJ Scott(MSU), TE Jake Butt(M), WR Jordan Westerkamp (NEB), WR Rob Wheelwright(UW), WR Matt VandeBerg(IA), OL Cole Croston(IA), OL Brian Allen(MSU), OL Dan Voltz (UW), OL Andrew Nelson(PSU)

DEFENSE: DE Tyquan Lewis(OSU), DE Rashan Gary(M), DT Chris Wormley(M), DT Malik McDowell(MSU). LB Raekwon McMillan (OSU), LB Anthony Walker (NW), LB Jermaine Carter(MD), CB Gareon Conley(OSU), CB Will Likely (MD), CB Channing Stribling(M), S Miles Taylor (IA).

SPECIAL TEAMS: Kenny Allen(K/P), Likely(PR/KR)

Gasps from around the country at a Penn State offensive lineman going in Draftageddeon. CNN breaks in live to survey the carnage.

Okay:

1. Nelson is the only sure thing on this PSU line, a 6'6", 300 pound tackle with a lot of experience under his belt and an impressive physical package:

Franklin said his explosive and strength numbers are "unbelievable," adding that it's been two years since the redshirt junior has really been able to run the full offseason gauntlet.

It's just one of the reasons he is the only lineman that has separated himself, the head coach said, with all five offensive line spots seemingly up for grabs. "He looks like a guy that's played a bunch of football," Franklin said. "He looks like a guy that's able to do true offseason training this year. He's playing so much more confident and more physical. I would say the rest of the positions are still pretty much a battle."

2. It was an injury to Nelson against Buffalo that opened the floodgates named "Paris Palmer" a year ago. When he returned things got... less ungood.

3. PFF haaaaated Christian Hackenberg and the #1 thing they hated about him was his tendency to run himself into sacks, or sit and eat sacks long after his internal timer was supposed to go off. PSU could run a bit last year and will be able to run a bit this year--dollars to donuts this is the year "PSU OL" stops being a punchline. PSU imported former Minnesota OL coach and OC Matt Limegrover, who knows his way around the block.

4. Nelson is a top 20 OT prospect in 2018 per NFLDraftScout.

5. I watched all the clips I had for the PSU UFR and Nelson didn't get obliterated on any of them. There were some stunt issues but on those he seemed to be correct while the guard next to him was in la-la land. PSU bounced him from RT to LT and back as they strove to find anyone other than Nelson who could even vaguely hang.

6. A couple years back we all rushed to grab Donovan Smith, a gem lost in the Nittany morass, with BryMac getting the drop on us. Smith was a second round pick. It can happen.

7. You always make fun of my late OL picks only for those dudes to do well and get drafted. Nuts to you!

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SETH: Round 22, Pick 2: Marcus Newby, OLB Nebraska

[Aaron Babcock/Hail Varsity]

OFFENSE: QB J.T. Barrett (OSU), RB Corey Clement (WI), WR Chris Godwin (PSU), WR Simmie Cobbs (IN), WR Ricky Jones (IN), TE Brandon Lingen (MN), OC Mason Cole (M), RG Sean Welsh (IA), LG Billy Price (OSU), LT Ryan Ramczyk (WI), RT Michael Dunn (MD)

DEFENSE: NT Bryan Mone (M), DT Darius Hamilton (RU), WLB Nyeem Wartman-White (PSU), MLB Riley Bullough (MSU), SAM Marcus Newby (NEB), HSP Delano Hill (M), SS Godwin Igwebuike (NW), FS Dymonte Thomas (M), FCB Desmond King (IA) BCB Greg Mabin (IA)

SPECIAL TEAMS: KR/PR Desmond King, K/P Ryan Santoso (MN)

One of the best kept cats in the Big Ten was let out of the bag when PFF had to pick four linebackers out of a ridiculously deep year for underclassman. McMillan and Jewell (+18.2) were first teamers. Second team was Jermaine Carter (+14.1) and Marcus Newby.

Who the hell is Marcus Newby? PFF before the bowl:

Seven of the eight players who played 200 or more snaps on their defensive line finished the year with a positive grade. At linebacker, Marcus Newby (+17.1) was the standout and though he was at his best against the run, he was solid in coverage too, with a grade of +3.5.

Basically he's what we want Josh Uche to be in 2-3 years: a dangerous edge rusher with ludicrous athleticism to fire upfield, close down space, and cover tight ends and anything out of the backfield. Newby dealt with some injuries last year so his 34 tackles and 5 TFLs in six starts are invisible in basic stats leaderboards. He began the year injured and didn't lock down his spot until mid-season. By the time he knocked down two crucial 3rd down passes against Wisconsin his coaches were gushing. Then he was hurt again for the bowl.

I re-watched the Nebraska-MSU game and saw him popping and shedding fullbacks, knocking down passes, shooting gaps, and teleporting around blocks with regularity. He posted a 1.60 ten-yard-dash (best on the team) this spring, to give you an idea of how fast space disappears in front of him, while the tape shows a guy who knows where to go and arrives under control. They'll line him up in space, over tight ends like a normal SAM, or bring him off the edge as a standup WDE. Give Newby a full junior season, and it won't just be the wonks saying he's good.

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ADAM: Round 22, Pick 3: Azubuike Ukandu, NT, Maryland

[Patrick Barron]

OFFENSE: C Pat Elflein (OSU), OG Dan Feeney (IU), WR Amara Darboh (M), RB Justin Jackson (NW), WR Brandon Reilly (NEB), QB John O'Korn (M), OG Ben Braden (M), OT Erik Magnuson (M), OT Jamarco Jones (OSU), TE Josiah Price (MSU), WR Janarion Grant (RU)

DEFENSE: CB Jourdan Lewis (M), DE Dawuane Smoot (ILL), DE Taco Charlton (M), DT Maurice Hurst (M), OLB Vince Biegel (UW), CB Matthew Harris (NW), ILB Hardy Nickerson Jr. (ILL), S Marcus Allen (PSU), S Damarius Travis (MN), ILB Jason Cabinda (PSU), NT Azubuike Ukandu (MD)

SPECIAL TEAMS: PR Janarion Grant (RU), KR Janarion Grant (RU)

I've been sitting back and hoping that one of these yahoos wouldn't take a second nose, and as long as we're talking about guys who haven't played a full season but were very productive regardless it seems like the right time to finally draft Ukandu. My team needed a big dude who can occupy two defenders and stop the run if all these pass rushers are going to get to the QB, and that's Ukandu. He started 2015 on the bench, but an injury opened up a starting spot four games into the season

Ukandu made his first start against Michigan and did fairly well, holding his own against double teams and knocking Glasgow or Braden back when single-blocked. He got better in a hurry; a month later he was two-gapping with ease. Once he got into the starting lineup he never left, as he started the final eight games of the season and finished with 24 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 6.5 TFLs, and a forced fumble.

After a performance like that Ukandu's name might as well be in ink on the depth chart as Maryland's starting nose tackle. I know nose is a position where a starter is more of a "starter," but Ukandu should be on the field for way more than the 364 snaps he got last season. If he's able to just maintain his level of production from last year he'll be in line for some kind of accolades after the season; he graded out as PFF's best nose tackle in the conference last season and was named to their All-Big Ten defensive first team.

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Brian: That was very much the wrong answer at NT.

Adam: I didn't watch every game he started but I liked what I saw. Who was the right answer at NT?

Brian: Ain't tellin' until Seth has a fourth DL.

Seth: Ukandu's fine. Maryland's run defense before the Michigan game was awful. OTOH Glasgow had one of his best games vs. the Terps. Brian's talking about Jaleel Johnson.

Adam:Ah, yep. I had him just below Ukandu on my draft board.

Seth: Meanwhile in START THE SEASON ALREADY, here's our drafting by school:

Brian: There is an excessive amount of homer in us this year. Draftin' backup-ass michigan DL over linchpins of very good Ds.

Seth: We deserve a little flag waiving after the Great Depression.

Also defensive linemen are the one thing Brady Hoke can produce as well as Catlab videos.

BiSB: Ohio State is replacing everybody. Penn State is replacing pretty much everybody. Michigan State has a few biiiiig question marks and their second-best defender probably won't get cleared, and Iowa wasn't that great.

Michigan's lineup looks deep, but more importantly for Draftageddon purposes, it is pretty well set.

Seth: We did tap the second cornerback battle in Ann Arbor ahead of the one in Columbus, but that too was highly reasonable but for choosing motivational practice quotes over your eyes.

Brian: One of those situations has a returning starter getting passed by a senior. One of those situations is ???

[Seth and Ace fight about Nate Gerry. Short version: Seth saw a lot of bad plays while scouting Newby, Ace holds up two years of Top 100-level production according to PFF.]

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Round 22, Pick 4: Mitchell Paige, slot receiver, Indiana

OFFENSE: QB CJ Beathard (IA), RB Saquon Barkley (PSU), WR Jehu Chesson (M), WR Noah Brown (OSU), SLOT Curtis Samuel (OSU), SLOT Mitchell Paige (IU), TE George Kittle (IA), OT Nick Gates (NE), OT Kodi Kieler (MSU), OG Jacob Bailey (IU), C Michael Dieter (UW), WEAPON Jabrill Peppers (M)

DEFENSE: NT Ryan Glasgow (M), DT Jake Replogle (PU), DE Sam Hubbard (OSU), DE Demetrius Cooper (MSU), MLB Josey Jewell (IA), OLB Brandon Bell (PSU), OLB/NICKEL Jabrill Peppers (M), CB Jalen Myrick (MN), CB Vayante Copeland (MSU), S Nate Gerry (NE), S Malik Hooker (OSU)

SPECIAL TEAMS: KR Jabrill Peppers (M), PR Jabrill Peppers (M)

At 5’7”, Paige isn’t the most physically imposing guy out there, but he certainly wasn’t short on production last year, catching 71% of his 80 targets at an impressive 8.6 yards per target. He blew up over the second half of the season, averaging a six-catch, 78-yard stat line with four touchdowns over the final seven games.

Paige does his best work over the middle of the field and he’s dangerous after the catch. His ability with the ball in his hands also extends to special teams, where he returned two punts for touchdowns last year. Paige is more than just a return man and short-throw target, however; he had the team’s best success rate and averaged 9.8 yards per target on passing downs. He’ll keep the chains moving while providing some big-play upside. As Indiana’s most reliable safety outlet, he’s the receiver most likely to maintain his 2015 production while the Hoosiers transition from Nate Sudfeld to, most likely, JuCo transfer Richard Lagow.

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Seth: Did we seriously not draft any Michigan guys this time? Wow.

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Where things stand:

The Draft:

By Position:

By Team:

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You vote:

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Next time on Draftageddon (this Friday): The right NT. Brian adds Rutgers to the Penn State side of his offensive line. And we will most definitely draft some more Michigan guys.