Upon Further Review: Offense vs OSU

SPONSOR NOTES: Again, chances of this existing without Matt are somewhat less. I like to think this would be a thing in the world without the prod from Homesure Lending, but you never know. Matt's sponsoring another Football Eve this year, albeit on Thursday so it's Football Eve Eve. September 1st, 7:30, Ashley's, first beer's on him.

[UPDATE: We've moved it to WOLVERINE STATE BREWING at 2019 West Stadium to accomodate more people]

Matt's got a ticket offer going for a Michigan football or basketball game. If you're buying a home or refinancing, he's the right guy to call. (No pants required.)

FORMATION NOTES: I'm ready to give up on naming these things. A couple of attempts to clarify the lingo below:

This was a Peppers sweep to all the dudes. Michigan has six OL in the game and Cole is in a two point stance to the bottom of the line. This was "ace quad tight bunch" even though that doesn't encapsulate all the weirdness.

Here Michigan has two TEs and two WRs on the field, with Butt lined up in a two point stance and Chesson an inline TE:

I'm calling this "WR hide." If you see it below there's an "inline TE" named Darboh or Chesson or both.

SUBSTITUTION NOTES: Rudock, starting OL, and the starting WRs the whole way. Isaac did not play and Drake Johnson was limited to scattered snaps as Smith and Peppers took the large bulk of the RB snaps. Peppers also lined up in the slot, at H-back and as a wildcat QB. AJ Williams didn't get much time.

[After THE JUMP: one very big problem M tried to work around.]

Why did you do this?

I was contractually obligated to? Also it's interesting?

Bleah.

No, seriously, it's interesting. Can I interest you in a pile of Jabrill Peppers, perhaps?

I'm listening.

All right, let's start out with a very sneaky chart:

Hey.

Sorry, sneaky.

We'll talk about the OL numbers in a bit. Now I want to focus on Michigan's gameplan and that RPS number. I loved this gameplan, with a couple of exceptions we'll talk about. When Michigan got stalled it was because a play that should work got blown up because either 1) OSU's talent level greatly exceeded Michigan's or 2) a Michigan dude just blew his assignment. Aside from a couple of run blitzes that Michigan wasn't prepared for OSU didn't have much to respond with.

They didn't actually need a tactical response since they had Joey Bosa going up against Erik Magnuson and Mason Cole, but I thought the Michigan coaching staff got the maximum out of what they had. That was just 13 points because they got zero help from the defense and OSU was able to out-talent them enough to bend but not break. Michigan drives:

• 10 plays, 43 yards, indefensible punt from the 36 on fourth and 5
• 7 plays, 28 yards, punt
• 14 plays, 72 yards, chip shot FG
• 11 plays, 92 yards, TD
• 6 plays, 15 yards, punt
• 7 plays, 57 yards, chip shot FG
• 20 yards on first play, Rudock knocked out on next, GG

That was against a D that had three top 20 picks and three more guys go before the third round was over; Michigan had 307 yards on just six drives. If they get the 9 or 10 possessions with Rudock that you'd expect before the game they easily crest 400 and approach 500.

Yards are only part of the equation, as Michigan bogged down in the redzone because their OL could not compete with the OSU DL. Michigan knew this and tried to avoid testing that matchup. (Thus the low overall numbers for the OL.) That was no longer tenable inside the redzone; once they got goal to go on their third drive their next two plays were WR screens.

But what's so great about this gameplan?

Michigan got big chunks of easy stuff against a top-notch defense. Whether it was shooting Drake Johnson into the flat before a linebacker could react or popping Chesson wide open repeatedly, Michigan had numerous opportunities to bust big plays because of the way Michigan was attacking the OSU defense.

One of their most successful ventures was running "flood" concepts. Flood routes put three guys on one edge of the field ranging from 40 to 20 to 0 yards downfield; OSU struggled to cover these. This one meets pure man coverage and even an iffy throw from Rudock that takes Chesson to the safety a bit is still a chunk:

Here's another flood based off Perry's motion; LB sucks up and the press corner on Darboh gets run off, leaving Chesson one on one with a safety who has to protect the post and is going to lose an out cut like this 99% of the time:

And a third time they got back to it with more motion on which a linebacker ran deep with Houma, leaving Chesson so open he racked up a 20 yard gain on a throw behind the LOS that was not a screen:

The touchdown was easy because Michigan motioned Chesson into a slot position where he got singled up on a linebacker:

All of these are passing concepts on which Michigan has a distinct advantage because of their playcall and the generally static structure of the OSU defense.

Meanwhile Michigan's approach with Peppers was on the verge of being wildly successful if some dudes could just execute some things. A screen turned into a chunk play because Peppers managed to dodge a half-dozen tacklers; it should never have come to that:

(More about him in a bit.) Michigan had another screen this open for Smith, but Braden again couldn't stay attached to the one linebacker who can make the play and that screen got nerfed near the LOS.

Michigan hit on that lovely one-man angle screen that they used against MSU:

(Against the Spartans that was a sure touchdown batted down at the LOS.)

This is a ton of good stuff! Michigan got piles of mismatches in this game, whether by alignment or personnel. There were correspondingly few plays that I thought were bad ideas from the start. (One of them was asking Butt to block Bosa on a power play.) They took advantage of many RPS+ plays and left big chunks of yards on the field on others. If this was year four I'd be upset about some of those breakdowns; one year removed from a Brady Hoke offense I chalk most of that up to the lack of player development characteristic of his regime.

The other thing that's impressive about the RPS: the rest of that chart. It is hard as hell to scheme your way to yards when you are being mostly dominated across the front. Michigan managed it despite a lot of doors being emphatically closed.

But it wasn't good enough to, like, score a bunch of points.

No. The main reason for that is blindingly obvious in the chart above: Joey Bosa. Also some other guys, but mostly Joey Bosa, who was responsible for about 14 pass protection minuses as he continually abused Cole and Magnuson. Rudock was of course knocked out on a play where Bosa zipped around Cole in a flash. If there was ever any question whether Cole is a left tackle, this game is clear evidence he's not.

Time and again Michigan drives would sputter because Bosa came around the corner. This one works out, barely:

On that one Bosa is delayed by the play action—you see him set up as a force player before bursting upfield. That's a situation where the OL has a big advantage and Bosa still gets around Magnuson in a flash. Even so this would normally be enough time to get the ball out without a deflection; OSU spent a ton of time in press coverage in an effort to get Bosa's matchup to pay off. The clip above is an excellent example of that, as it takes Butt another second or so to get to his route because he's taking press coverage.

This is also a completion; on it Cole gets bulled back so far that his help can't even, uh, help before Bosa's through to Rudock:

Magnuson was teleported around:

This was playing with fire and it eventually burned Michigan when Bosa buried Rudock from behind, ending his day.

Shouldn't they have gone max protect or chipped a guy or any number of other things?

Those approaches all come with costs, and the way Michigan was attacking OSU's approach makes those difficult. OSU was in press most of the day; they were in quarters most of the day. To get after that defense you have to attack the safeties from the slot or TE positions. Michigan did both successfully, but that necessarily means putting Jake Butt in a route. I have a hard time hammering Michigan's approach to this game when it got them so much free stuff.

So it was just the OL?

Unfortunately, no. There were a number of disappointing performances scattered through the offense even beyond the OL matchup that was highly unlikely to go well. Amara Darboh's day was disappointing. Michigan tried to exploit OSU's press coverage with him twice in the first half; twice Darboh got both hands on the ball only for an incompletion to result:

That's not Junior Hemingway style right there. Apple is in annoying position but is not actively breaking this up; also Darboh got shoved to the point where he's not high-pointing the ball. Later he'd turn inside on a ball thrown to his back shoulder, which cost him a critical step or two:

I also thought that he was at least partially at fault for the failed swing pass Michigan tried on second and goal. Rudock throws the ball such that Darboh should catch it going forward at a fair clip but Darboh runs the route such that this makes it difficult for him to catch:

If that's going to work it's gotta start with Darboh sprinting as he catches the ball. These three plays were his 0/3 on challenging catches; each was a makeable play that did not get made.

Darboh also struggled against OSU's press coverage more than Chesson. The play after the above screen saw Rudock with no options other than trying to hit Darboh on a slant against press coverage; Darboh was knocked off his route so badly he didn't even look back for the ball:

Chesson provided a counterpoint to this on the next drive. He's at the bottom of the screen; watch him shock the press corner with both hands, getting him off balance and breaking to a now-open post route:

Darboh did help make up for these with a high degree of difficulty diving catch on a questionable deep ball later; this was not one of his better days. While the erratic OSU wide receivers were making circus catches on the other side of the ball, Michigan's best contested-ball guy was just about neutralized by press coverage.

And there were other guys who were not great Bob?

Michigan's tight end crew didn't get more than one or two blocks that helped out, and they screwed some important ones up. The lack of positives is again Michigan's gameplan minimizing their role; the negatives racked up validated that decision.

A number of the execution issues seemed to come from a sore spot all year: Henry Poggi's targeting. This early Peppers run was made a lot more difficult because both Poggi and Houma end up taking on the same linebacker. Houma has to engage because Poggi doesn't get his block:

I think he doesn't get his block because that's the force guy and Houma is widening out to get that kickout and he should be going for the MLB, who is much easier for him to get since he's not ripping at the LOS willy-nilly.

A second Peppers run was more definitively nerfed by Poggi's indecision:

I don't know exactly who Poggi's man was, but it was not "none of the above." Notice that this is the same mistake—going after the force guy because he's the first thing to cross your face—except on this one he aborts and tries to get a linebacker further inside. This contributes to my take on the first play since that feels like a guy who got chewed out about a thing and then fixes it too late the next time.

This feint was doubly damaging since it appears to convince Magnuson to run by the force guy as well. And whoooo man was this a big bust for Michigan. This weird unbalanced line had OSU formation'd big time. If M executes a couple of relatively simple blocks on those two gentlemen  they have a blocker for the playside safety (Kerridge) and Peppers is loose for somewhere between 15 and a billion yards.

You mentioned Peppers Peppers Peppers?

This game was close to what I think we'll see this fall with Peppers. He wasn't quite fully weaponized but Michigan had him in on about 25% of their offensive snaps before the Rudock injury made things academic. They lined him up as a slot and hit him with a drag route; they used him as a plain-ol tailback; they got him in space with a couple of screens that deserved better blocking than they got; they pitched it to him with the intent of having him throw; they got some free yards despite bad blocking because a Peppers sweep with a throw attached dragged two guys to the endzone with Jake Butt; they busted out some truly exotic stuff:

He got nine touches in this game; while he didn't break anything big he demonstrated good vision and running instincts plus his trademark explosion. If his blockers get it sorted out this season he's going to score ten touchdowns.

Peppers is a special boy because he's equally capable of being an inside runner, an end-around/jet sweep guy, and a slot receiver. Michigan does a bunch of weird stuff with him, most of which they've rarely if ever put on tape before. This is the opposite of the Dennis Norfleet stuff where Al Borges would have him come in and do the same thing every time he touched the ball, and if Michigan continues to get him the same number of snaps a game he's going to blow up.

How did Speight do?

You realize not to take this too seriously?

Yes yes now tell me.

Right, well... don't take this too seriously...

FINE

...but it was a bit like the Minnesota game. Speight got off to a terrible start and then settled in a bit. Charts:

Jake Rudock 2015

Wilton Speight 2015

First of all, before we talk about a guy still on the team: hot damn, Jake Rudock. He was under extreme duress and still came out with an awesome DSR, with most of those throws a significant way downfield. Relative to competition level the most impressive QB performance since Devin Gardner against Notre Dame in UTL 2. Take a bow, and enjoy a Todd Collins NFL career.

Anyway, Speight. He clearly had a case of nerves early, winging balls wherever when he got pressure. His pocket presence was nowhere near Rudock's. But he steadied himself and had a series of nice throws. It was very much garbage time but I thought this throw to Chesson was pretty slick:

Ball is out before Chesson's in his break.

The interception was just one of those things; he's trying to throw a screen over Bosa, who nobody cut, and Bosa deflects it to himself. I wouldn't read a ton into a DSR with that sample size; it's a little more data to consider. Emphasis on "little."

And the wide receiver chart?

Yes, yes:

Receivers?

[0 = uncatchable, 1 = circus catch, 2 = moderate difficulty, 3 = routine]

Since we're done with the offense I can now state that Jake Butt made every routine catch that came his way in 2015 and just about everything else, too. I had him for two drop-type substances on challenging balls and perfect otherwise. With just 8 targets on which he had no shot at the ball*, when Michigan threw it to him 83% of the time they saw it pay off at an average of 11 yards a pop. That is absurd.

*[Balls in this category are a combination of inaccurate passes and instances where coverage is so good there's not even a catch attempt. Butt's huge catching radius and route running skills contribute to the low numbers. Deliberate throwaways are not counted here.]

What does it mean for 2016?

It's nice to have a Bosa. Oh hi Rashan.

Mason Cole is an interior OL. I mean, he can play tackle. I don't think he's coming back from this whipping to be a guy who can shut down primo edge rushers.

Stanford wasn't built in a day. While Jim Harbaugh did a terrific job to salvage what he could from the Wreck of the Brady Hokegerald, you can't fix sawft in under a year. This game hinged on the fact that Michigan's OL was in no shape to deal with the opposition DL, as so many games have been over the past four years.

I expect improvement here. I don't know how much you can expect from three fourth year guys entering year five.

Jim Harbaugh is a terrific offensive mind. I don't think you need to be told this, but Michigan's ability to work around some huge limitations was encouraging. Let's hope this kind of mismatch in the trenches becomes a distant memory starting this fall; Harbaugh's ability to diagnose a flaw and gameplan around it is outstanding.

Amara Darboh isn't Junior Hemingway... or at least he wasn't last November. This plus the bowl make me dubious of claims that Darboh's passed Chesson for the #1 receiving job. Awesome that all the practice reports are as positive as they can be; would like to see it on the field early this year to confirm.

Jabrill Peppers is going to be a serious part of the offense. He's not a sideshow. The variety of ways Michigan attacked with him—and the number of plays he opens up as a decoy—indicate a guy who can be on the field for big chunks of a game. He's never going to pass block, but even so Michigan has flexibility thanks to De'Veon Smith, who's a hybrid himself. Having both out there doesn't tip your hand.